Brexit

[Doc Shrink]

Photographs like that we can do without. You must have better on your phone!!!

I can't figure out how to upload the video/gif and it's turned out as a pic.
Still nauseating, but probably lacks the ability to have you all upchucking on your keyboards/phones which is really what I was hoping for.

I do have more interesting pics to be fair. Got them in a Bounce Wives folder. I think there's two or three under your name, all different!

 

[Rocky]

Salmond left, Cameron left, surely the worst prime minister ever will do the right thing, she’s awful, she was almost in denial after the vote acting like it was everybody else’s fault.

I still have a hunch that May is trying to engineer remain without being seen to have ridden roughshod over the referendum result. Viewed from that angle she's probably not in denial so much as inwardly celebrating.

 

[beefy]

What a shower of shite our politicians are. Fuck off!

Sent from my E5823 using Tapatalk

 

[1875]

I still have a hunch that May is trying to engineer remain without being seen to have ridden roughshod over the referendum result. Viewed from that angle she's probably not in denial so much as inwardly celebrating.

I agree.

 

[Jack]

I can't figure out how to upload the video/gif and it's turned out as a pic.
Still nauseating, but probably lacks the ability to have you all upchucking on your keyboards/phones which is really what I was hoping for.

I do have more interesting pics to be fair. Got them in a Bounce Wives folder. I think there's two or three under your name, all different!

I'm disappointed I don't have my own folder!

I still have a hunch that May is trying to engineer remain without being seen to have ridden roughshod over the referendum result. Viewed from that angle she's probably not in denial so much as inwardly celebrating.

You'd like to think so eh?

From the moment the referendum was announced though it's just been one fuck up after another. If the Tory bastards started off with their A team, after all these resignations at all levels we're really seeing the dregs of the Z list. MPs who never in a million years ever thought they'd get a ministerial portfolio heading up billion pound departments. There must be more former ministers on the back benches than at any other time in history.

And they're still ahead of Labour in the polls!

 

[Purple & Green]

I still have a hunch that May is trying to engineer remain without being seen to have ridden roughshod over the referendum result. Viewed from that angle she's probably not in denial so much as inwardly celebrating.

But this is complete deadlock - nothing will get through parliament - does that mean an inevitable no deal Brexit?

 

[Rocky]

But this is complete deadlock - nothing will get through parliament - does that mean an inevitable no deal Brexit?

Personally I think it'll mean revoking article 50 on the premise that they need more time to either plan no deal or renegotiate. In reality it's just kicking the can down the road and they'll dick around paying lip service to it for a while. They'll then secure a couple of concessions from the EU and also implement the restrictions on freedom of movement for EU citizens (which were always in their power to do but they chose not to) then say that circumstances have changed and call another referendum. Assumption being that this farce pissed everyone off enough that they won't want to go through it again. If a few good news inward investment stories appear shortly after article 50 is revoked that'll strengthen the national mood towards remain as well.

 

[Rocky]

Personally I think it'll mean revoking article 50 on the premise that they need more time to either plan no deal or renegotiate. In reality it's just kicking the can down the road and they'll dick around paying lip service to it for a while. They'll then secure a couple of concessions from the EU and also implement the restrictions on freedom of movement for EU citizens (which were always in their power to do but they chose not to) then say that circumstances have changed and call another referendum. Assumption being that this farce pissed everyone off enough that they won't want to go through it again. If a few good news inward investment stories appear shortly after article 50 is revoked that'll strengthen the national mood towards remain as well.

A slightly more outlandish possibility that occurred to me just now is that Corbyn may be in on this plan. I've always assumed that his silence was because he (not so) secretly backs Brexit (and specifically Lexit). Perhaps in the scenario I outlined the EU concessions are actually the ones that Corbyn wants (eg more freedom to do nationalisation / relaxation of state aid rules).

 

[Chris G Whyte]

I wish to leave Europe and leave the United Kingdom, what vote do I get none?How democratic is that?

It's a vote you have after you sort out the first choice.

So, once Scots choose the EU over the UK (which is my expectation) you then provide the choice of the EU or its departure. What you don't do is provide two options at the same time, because that would likely confuse the outcome into one that keeps us stuck in a UK that's utterly broken.

 

[aggie]

Zero humility on May’s part. She’s in a right indignant sulk because she hasn’t got her own way, completely unaware that her failure is entirely her own fault. From day one, she should have formed a cross-party committee and tried to reach a consensus on a reasonable deal with customs union inclusion and single market access. If that was what Brexit meant, I could have very grudgingly supported it. But no, she was adversarially partisan, did nothing but spout jingoistic platitudes, and generally carried on like a slightly unhinged autocratic monarch rather than a representative of parliament. She made it all about her. There’s something really quite deranged about the way she refers to ‘my deal’.

She can suck it up. Anyone else would resign. This is the biggest shitshow in British political history, it's embarrassing.

 

[aggie]

Vernon Bogdanor, the politics professor and constitutional expert, has told Sky News that he thinks tonight’s vote make a no-deal Brexit more likely than a second referendum. He pointed out that the Commons has already passed legislation saying the UK will be leaving the EU on 29 March. Holding a second referendum would be very difficult, he said, because the government would have to pass legislation, and Brexiters would “fight it tooth and nail”. He went on:

"There are about 40 odd sitting days left till March 29. If no other statute is passed, we leave without a deal. I take the view ... that the vote tonight makes a no-deal departure more likely than a second referendum."

 

[PILTONSTANY]

If you favour Indy Sco then you’re wanting Brexit to happen,Indy Ref 2 with the promise of an EU vote would look quite attractive to past waiverers....

 

[southfieldhibby]

If you favour Indy Sco then you’re wanting Brexit to happen,Indy Ref 2 with the promise of an EU vote would look quite attractive to past waiverers....

But if there's no brexit deal that would mean a hard border between Scotland and England, that would re-waive any waiverer?

 

[PILTONSTANY]

But if there's no brexit deal that would mean a hard border between Scotland and England, that would re-waive any waiverer?

We’re only talking a few % in our favour to Vote Yes and we’d get Indy,If you offered the Europeans and Young folk living here a chance to rejoin the EU i’m sure they’d vote Yes.
Is a border between England and Scotland really that big a deal?

 

[Rocky]

We’re only talking a few % in our favour to Vote Yes and we’d get Indy,If you offered the Europeans and Young folk living here a chance to rejoin the EU i’m sure they’d vote Yes.
Is a border between England and Scotland really that big a deal?

That depends what kind of Brexit England and Wales (and possibly NI) end up with in that scenario.

The impact will potentially be offset by the likes of financial services companies relocating to Scotland to take advantage of being in an English speaking country that's part of the EU but that ship could well have sailed by the time independence was achieved.

I don't think it's a certainty that the swing will only go one way in a post Brexit Scottish independence referendum.

 

[PILTONSTANY]

May survives the vote.....
They’d still rather have her than Corbyn run the country.

 

[Doc Shrink]

May survives the vote.....
They’d still rather have her than Corbyn run the country.

And keep their cushy jobs.

 

[moathibby]

DUP keep May in office.Had they voted against her she would have lost by 1.

 

[Rocky]

DUP keep May in office.Had they voted against her she would have lost by 1.

That's what a billion quid gets you. Corrupt to the core

 

[1875]

May survives the vote.....
They’d still rather have her than Corbyn run the country.

I would rather have Independence.

 

[Bofahibee]

I watched Jacob Rees Mogg’s interview with Andrew Neal on the train tonight. What a weird bugger he is (Mogg not Neal... though actually...)

Mogg’s idea is that Britain leaves with no deal and the next day we remove all tariffs on imported goods. Neal challenged him saying then we wouldn’t have any negotiating hand at all. But Mogg didn’t think this was a problem. After all trainers would be twelve quid cheaper...

This kind of thinking is utter madness as the country would be flooded with cheap foreign goods and food. Our own businesses just wouldn’t be able to compete without cutting wages massively and turning us into a third world workforce. Our businesses would pay huge WTO tariffs (beef @ 60% for instance). I can’t see how Hundreds of thousands of people wouldn’t lose their jobs within months. And yet rabid Leavers think this would be worth it to stop Europeans coming over and working here. FUBAR


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[Rocky]

I watched Jacob Rees Mogg’s interview with Andrew Neal on the train tonight. What a weird bugger he is (Mogg not Neal... though actually...)

Mogg’s idea is that Britain leaves with no deal and the next day we remove all tariffs on imported goods. Neal challenged him saying then we wouldn’t have any negotiating hand at all. But Mogg didn’t think this was a problem. After all trainers would be twelve quid cheaper...

This kind of thinking is utter madness as the country would be flooded with cheap foreign goods and food. Our own businesses just wouldn’t be able to compete without cutting wages massively and turning us into a third world workforce. Our businesses would pay huge WTO tariffs (beef @ 60% for instance). I can’t see how Hundreds of thousands of people wouldn’t lose their jobs within months. And yet rabid Leavers think this would be worth it to stop Europeans coming over and working here. FUBAR


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He really does think it's worth it. He quotes Patrick Minford as his main adviser and he's the guy that says industry and agriculture will be decimated by Brexit. He's in favour of it. His conversation with James O'Brien shows exactly what he thinks:

James O'Brien's Unmissable Exchange With Jacob Rees-Mogg Over Brexit Vote - LBC

 

[Bofahibee]

He really does think it's worth it. He quotes Patrick Minford as his main adviser and he's the guy that says industry and agriculture will be decimated by Brexit. He's in favour of it. His conversation with James O'Brien shows exactly what he thinks:

James O'Brien's Unmissable Exchange With Jacob Rees-Mogg Over Brexit Vote - LBC

Bewildering. What is it about certain (Sun reading) sections of English society, that they'll believe anything some c*** with a posh accent says?

 

[Rocky]

Bewildering. What is it about certain (Sun reading) sections of English society, that they'll believe anything some c*** with a posh accent says?

It'll take a better man than me to answer that conundrum. Our media certainly do a piss poor job at holding any of them to account.

 

[Jack]

Bewildering. What is it about certain (Sun reading) sections of English society, that they'll believe anything some c*** with a posh accent says?

I'm not for a moment suggesting I'm a better man than Rocky lol, but here goes.
I think its because they think that if they vote Tory and aspire to be the same as them by some miracle they will become the same.

It'll take a better man than me to answer that conundrum. Our media certainly do a piss poor job at holding any of them to account.

The media aren't going to hold the Brexit Torys to account. They were the ones funding the Brexit campaign from their overseas chateaux along with all the hedge fund managers and the like! The media have been stirring up the xenophobia and misleading anti EU crap for years.

A list of all those who stand to make millions/billions or avoid millions in legitimate taxation I reckon would match pretty closely with those in the first part of this reply.

If anyone has a list of those that made most money during the austerity years I suspect that would be a good starting point.

 

[moathibby]

Remember it took Thatcher 7 attempts to get rid of Callaghan,I think May's in a much weaker position than he was. May was beaten yesterday by the biggest margin ever seen in parliamentary history.She is far from safe.Corbyn is quite right to not play ball.Why the hell should he,this govt. has ruined the lives of thousands.He should let May be hoist by her own petard.

 

[southfieldhibby]

We’re only talking a few % in our favour to Vote Yes and we’d get Indy,If you offered the Europeans and Young folk living here a chance to rejoin the EU i’m sure they’d vote Yes.
Is a border between England and Scotland really that big a deal?

Wouldn't be surprised if the media frenzy generated by the prospect of a border at Berwick affected quite a few. The quiet majority could strike again.
But you're right about Europeans. My wife employs two Polish ladies and a Bulgarian. The Bulgarian is sensible ( and tidy) but didn't have a vote last time. The two Poles both voted No out of fear of being chucked out. If there is another vote and they vote the same way they'll be looking for new employment!

 

[GORDONSMITH7]

I think that Corbyn is quite right not to meet with May until the jump off the cliff, suicidal No Deal Brexit has been taken off the table. All the talk of May compromising is naive and the leaders of the SNP, Liberals, Greens, Plaid Cymru meeting with her are being used by her as patsies. They won't even get crumbs from her. Not surprised that they, along with every senior Tory the MSM can lay their hands on are criticising him, no doubt partly to defend their own actions.Labour Right Wingers like Chuka Umunna and Hilary Benn will possibly sneak in for a blether with her.

BIG G

 

[Jack]

I think that Corbyn is quite right not to meet with May until the jump off the cliff, suicidal No Deal Brexit has been taken off the table. All the talk of May compromising is naive and the leaders of the SNP, Liberals, Greens, Plaid Cymru meeting with her are being used by her as patsies. They won't even get crumbs from her. Not surprised that they, along with every senior Tory the MSM can lay their hands on are criticising him, no doubt partly to defend their own actions.Labour Right Wingers like Chuka Umunna and Hilary Benn will possibly sneak in for a blether with her.

BIG G

Hilary Benn has and so has Yvette Cooper.

 

[GORDONSMITH7]

Hilary Benn has and so has Yvette Cooper.

Quelle surprise, Blairites creep in, ....Chuka will be pissed off he wisnae there, however the poor chap has been busy in front of cameras all day criticising Corbyn for not attending.
I reiterate, worse than a waste of time.
BIG G

 

[pq123]

Brexit is turning into an absolute minefield for every political party in the UK.
Labour’s last manifesto stated they would honour Brexit. Quite how they could do that, whilst signing up to a customs union and the single market will stretch the gullibility of the electorate to the extreme. They are also conflicted by having a majority of remainers in their membership and parliament but most of the constituencies that voted labour at the last election also voted leave. A people’s vote would expose this schism to the raw bones of the party. A general election with Brexit as the defining issue could see many traditional labour voters holding their nose as they vote Tory for the first and probably last time.

The Lib Dems are united in their remain stance but still wear the stains of shame from saying one thing on tution fees in opposition but ignoring their promises at the first whiff of power. Ignoring the referendum vote and undermining Brexit at every opportunity might also make it difficult to do much more than get a slight increase in votes from some remainers.

The SNP are also in difficulty. Whilst a majority of Yes voters also voted remain in the referendum but a sizeable rump voted no. How many of the No voters might balk at parting with the UK only to be ruled by Brussels instead? This might also be a hard sell for the fishing industry in Scotland. SNP have made a big noise about the Tories selling out the fishing industry but can’t wait to sign up to rejoin the EU fishing policy. Ref2 will pick up some remainers who voted no the last time but they need 6% more plus more to compensate for disenchanted Yes to Independence and Yes to Brexit. All this before the Salmond ‘Gropegate’ hits the fan.

The Tory membership mostly wants Brexit but the leadership want as soft a Brexit as they think they can get away with. The ERG faction are currently plotting and positioning themselves for May’s downfall. If the Brexiteers manipulate control of the party before a deal is signed off, in my opinion, they would probably win a General election. My opinion is based on Brexit being the defining issue of the election. One party campaigning for Brexit against three parties (splitting the vote) on the remain side. Opinion polls are suggesting that at least 40% are still in favour of Brexit. There cannot be many constituencies in the UK where a party with 40% of the vote came second.

PQ123

 

[GORDONSMITH7]

Brexit is turning into an absolute minefield for every political party in the UK.
Labour’s last manifesto stated they would honour Brexit. Quite how they could do that, whilst signing up to a customs union and the single market will stretch the gullibility of the electorate to the extreme. They are also conflicted by having a majority of remainers in their membership and parliament but most of the constituencies that voted labour at the last election also voted leave. A people’s vote would expose this schism to the raw bones of the party. A general election with Brexit as the defining issue could see many traditional labour voters holding their nose as they vote Tory for the first and probably last time.

The Lib Dems are united in their remain stance but still wear the stains of shame from saying one thing on tution fees in opposition but ignoring their promises at the first whiff of power. Ignoring the referendum vote and undermining Brexit at every opportunity might also make it difficult to do much more than get a slight increase in votes from some remainers.

The SNP are also in difficulty. Whilst a majority of Yes voters also voted remain in the referendum but a sizeable rump voted no. How many of the No voters might balk at parting with the UK only to be ruled by Brussels instead? This might also be a hard sell for the fishing industry in Scotland. SNP have made a big noise about the Tories selling out the fishing industry but can’t wait to sign up to rejoin the EU fishing policy. Ref2 will pick up some remainers who voted no the last time but they need 6% more plus more to compensate for disenchanted Yes to Independence and Yes to Brexit. All this before the Salmond ‘Gropegate’ hits the fan.

The Tory membership mostly wants Brexit but the leadership want as soft a Brexit as they think they can get away with. The ERG faction are currently plotting and positioning themselves for May’s downfall. If the Brexiteers manipulate control of the party before a deal is signed off, in my opinion, they would probably win a General election. My opinion is based on Brexit being the defining issue of the election. One party campaigning for Brexit against three parties (splitting the vote) on the remain side. Opinion polls are suggesting that at least 40% are still in favour of Brexit. There cannot be many constituencies in the UK where a party with 40% of the vote came second.

PQ123

May crushed and humiliated: chaos reigns

BIG G

 

[HaarlemShuffler]

Brexit is turning into an absolute minefield for every political party in the UK.
Labour’s last manifesto stated they would honour Brexit. Quite how they could do that, whilst signing up to a customs union and the single market will stretch the gullibility of the electorate to the extreme. They are also conflicted by having a majority of remainers in their membership and parliament but most of the constituencies that voted labour at the last election also voted leave. A people’s vote would expose this schism to the raw bones of the party. A general election with Brexit as the defining issue could see many traditional labour voters holding their nose as they vote Tory for the first and probably last time.

The Lib Dems are united in their remain stance but still wear the stains of shame from saying one thing on tution fees in opposition but ignoring their promises at the first whiff of power. Ignoring the referendum vote and undermining Brexit at every opportunity might also make it difficult to do much more than get a slight increase in votes from some remainers.

The SNP are also in difficulty. Whilst a majority of Yes voters also voted remain in the referendum but a sizeable rump voted no. How many of the No voters might balk at parting with the UK only to be ruled by Brussels instead? This might also be a hard sell for the fishing industry in Scotland. SNP have made a big noise about the Tories selling out the fishing industry but can’t wait to sign up to rejoin the EU fishing policy. Ref2 will pick up some remainers who voted no the last time but they need 6% more plus more to compensate for disenchanted Yes to Independence and Yes to Brexit. All this before the Salmond ‘Gropegate’ hits the fan.

The Tory membership mostly wants Brexit but the leadership want as soft a Brexit as they think they can get away with. The ERG faction are currently plotting and positioning themselves for May’s downfall. If the Brexiteers manipulate control of the party before a deal is signed off, in my opinion, they would probably win a General election. My opinion is based on Brexit being the defining issue of the election. One party campaigning for Brexit against three parties (splitting the vote) on the remain side. Opinion polls are suggesting that at least 40% are still in favour of Brexit. There cannot be many constituencies in the UK where a party with 40% of the vote came second.

PQ123

Thanks for that succinct summary, you always remember your 1, 2 and 3s PQ!

Nightmare at this end but Dutch gov have jumped in early to assure us long-termers without Dutch nationality that we will be treated no differently than before.

Bit different for the euro expats in GB I believe?

Brexit. Sometimes I'm almost glad I can't vote in big elections anymore.

:dunno:

 

[Jack]

Brexit is turning into an absolute minefield for every political party in the UK.
Labour’s last manifesto stated they would honour Brexit. Quite how they could do that, whilst signing up to a customs union and the single market will stretch the gullibility of the electorate to the extreme. They are also conflicted by having a majority of remainers in their membership and parliament but most of the constituencies that voted labour at the last election also voted leave. A people’s vote would expose this schism to the raw bones of the party. A general election with Brexit as the defining issue could see many traditional labour voters holding their nose as they vote Tory for the first and probably last time.

The Lib Dems are united in their remain stance but still wear the stains of shame from saying one thing on tution fees in opposition but ignoring their promises at the first whiff of power. Ignoring the referendum vote and undermining Brexit at every opportunity might also make it difficult to do much more than get a slight increase in votes from some remainers.

The SNP are also in difficulty. Whilst a majority of Yes voters also voted remain in the referendum but a sizeable rump voted no. How many of the No voters might balk at parting with the UK only to be ruled by Brussels instead? This might also be a hard sell for the fishing industry in Scotland. SNP have made a big noise about the Tories selling out the fishing industry but can’t wait to sign up to rejoin the EU fishing policy. Ref2 will pick up some remainers who voted no the last time but they need 6% more plus more to compensate for disenchanted Yes to Independence and Yes to Brexit. All this before the Salmond ‘Gropegate’ hits the fan.

The Tory membership mostly wants Brexit but the leadership want as soft a Brexit as they think they can get away with. The ERG faction are currently plotting and positioning themselves for May’s downfall. If the Brexiteers manipulate control of the party before a deal is signed off, in my opinion, they would probably win a General election. My opinion is based on Brexit being the defining issue of the election. One party campaigning for Brexit against three parties (splitting the vote) on the remain side. Opinion polls are suggesting that at least 40% are still in favour of Brexit. There cannot be many constituencies in the UK where a party with 40% of the vote came second.

PQ123

While I agree with you on most of this I'd question what you say about the SNP. They've 'always' been staunchly pro Europe and waxed lyrical about the benefits so I'd be surprised if there were many of there voters voted for brexit.

 

[southfieldhibby]

While I agree with you on most of this I'd question what you say about the SNP. They've 'always' been staunchly pro Europe and waxed lyrical about the benefits so I'd be surprised if there were many of there voters voted for brexit.

SNP were pretty anti-EU in the 70's I think?

 

[beefy]

SNP were pretty anti-EU in the 70's I think?

Tartan Tories my dear auld staunch Labour Ma used to call them. She would be feckin amazed at how it all turned out.

 

[Jack]

SNP were pretty anti-EU in the 70's I think?

Yeah I think you might be right that's why I put always in " ". They've certainly been very pro Europe over the past couple of decades when they became much more popular. Hence my thought that any anti Europe faction within their support would be in the minority.

 

[PILTONSTANY]

While I agree with you on most of this I'd question what you say about the SNP. They've 'always' been staunchly pro Europe and waxed lyrical about the benefits so I'd be surprised if there were many of there voters voted for brexit.

They reckon 30% of Yes voters voted for Brexit,each having their own reasons.

[BGCOLOR=rgb(255, 255, 255)]“Overall, 1,661,191 voters backed Remain in Scotland, with 1,018,322 voting for Leave.”[/BGCOLOR]

[BGCOLOR=rgb(255, 255, 255)]600k difference doesn’t seem all that big but then there was only a 67% turnout.[/BGCOLOR]

Scotland backs Remain as UK votes Leave

 

[Jack]

They reckon 30% of Yes voters voted for Brexit,each having their own reasons.

[BGCOLOR=rgb(255, 255, 255)]“Overall, 1,661,191 voters backed Remain in Scotland, with 1,018,322 voting for Leave.”[/BGCOLOR]

[BGCOLOR=rgb(255, 255, 255)]600k difference doesn’t seem all that big but then there was only a 67% turnout.[/BGCOLOR]

Scotland backs Remain as UK votes Leave

Ah yes but of the 30% yes folk that voted leave how many align with the Unionist parties? I'd go for most being Labour voters. I feel in my water there's a decent percentage, and growing, of Labour voters that favour independence. Probably a few libdems but there's very few of them anyway! In fact there were probably more thick sevcovian torys who put the X in the wrong box by accident :-)

I'm not saying there are no SNP brexiteers, I just don't think there numbers are significant.

 

[PILTONSTANY]

Ah yes but of the 30% yes folk that voted leave how many align with the Unionist parties? I'd go for most being Labour voters. I feel in my water there's a decent percentage, and growing, of Labour voters that favour independence. Probably a few libdems but there's very few of them anyway! In fact there were probably more thick sevcovian torys who put the X in the wrong box by accident :-)

I'm not saying there are no SNP brexiteers, I just don't think there numbers are significant.

Aye i’ll guess only the SNP know if it’s a significant number or no.