SNP

Any evidence of that or sources?
P24 of the same report.

"Prior to December 2016, the HMRC figures were estimated using a methodology which may have resulted in exports being allocated to parts of the UK where companies’ headquarters were located, instead of where goods were being physically exported from."
 
P24 of the same report.

"Prior to December 2016, the HMRC figures were estimated using a methodology which may have resulted in exports being allocated to parts of the UK where companies’ headquarters were located, instead of where goods were being physically exported from."
Right, so a methodological issue has been cleaned up. That's not evidence that figures used before were false. Anyway, I've got a game to go to.
 
Right, so a methodological issue has been cleaned up. That's not evidence that figures used before were false. Anyway, I've got a game to go to.
OK, so they were accurate and that's why they changed methodology? Aye right!
 
Jack - this is information prepared by the Scottish Parliament information centre. The other stats were prepared by Scottish Government statisticians. So how this constitues a 'Unionists guide to indpendence' beats me. Why not just say what you mean: you think civil servants in the Scottish Government and the Scottish Parliament are lying?
I have great faith in our civil servants in Scotland. They are however restricted by the information they are given by other sources.

Do you really believe exports of oil were only worth 60% more than whisky?

Besides. The point I made was that figures taken post Brexit and in the middle of a pandemic are hardly representative of what Scotland might do once independent.
 
Who is the 'they' you are referring to?
HMRC, as stated in my quote from the report that you introduced to the debate, even though some of it doesn't seem to suit you so you'll just disregard those bits.

Enjoy the match!
 
HMRC, as stated in my quote from the report that you introduced to the debate, even though some of it doesn't seem to suit you so you'll just disregard those bits.

Enjoy the match!
I enjoyed the match very much thanks.
 
I find the posts here really puzzling. There is a coherent case to be made for independence. So why go for stuff which is so easily refuted? A lot of the comment on the numbers, but much of this is the stuff of conspiracy theories. Essentially the case is that civil servants and Westminster are lying to us. You get this with GERS too. Even though this was described by the former FM as the 'gold standard'. And the tactics of conspiracy theorist have really been deployed. Statement: 'there are no numbers for exports'. Answer: yes there are and here they are. Statement: these are lies. Answer: show us the lies. And then the classic conspiracy theory tactic-find something that looks like an anomaly and trumpet as proof that 'they' are at it. What it is reduced to is that civil servants are involved in a vast conspiracy to lie to us ( although as Jack makes clear he believes it's not civil servants in Scotland).

I think it is really healthy to question stuff that all governments issue. But it needs rigorous analysis and refutation, not conspiracy focused nonsense. I really think it undermines the case.
 
I find the posts here really puzzling. There is a coherent case to be made for independence. So why go for stuff which is so easily refuted? A lot of the comment on the numbers, but much of this is the stuff of conspiracy theories. Essentially the case is that civil servants and Westminster are lying to us. You get this with GERS too. Even though this was described by the former FM as the 'gold standard'. And the tactics of conspiracy theorist have really been deployed. Statement: 'there are no numbers for exports'. Answer: yes there are and here they are. Statement: these are lies. Answer: show us the lies. And then the classic conspiracy theory tactic-find something that looks like an anomaly and trumpet as proof that 'they' are at it. What it is reduced to is that civil servants are involved in a vast conspiracy to lie to us ( although as Jack makes clear he believes it's not civil servants in Scotland).

I think it is really healthy to question stuff that all governments issue. But it needs rigorous analysis and refutation, not conspiracy focused nonsense. I really think it undermines the case.
I think you're making the schoolboy error of assuming these stats and figures, particularly GERS, are of a similar standard to company accounts. They're not, and you would in theory be hard pushed, because of political interference, to find an accountant willing to sign them off as showing a true and fair representation of the state of the Scottish economy.

What are they then?

Basically they are politically manipulated figures presented in a way that suits those in power and that's at Westminster not Holyrood.

And GERS is a classic example of this. Below is taken directly from Wiki.

"GERS was first published in 1992 by the Scottish Office in Edinburgh under the Conservative Party government of Prime Minister John Major, by Ian Lang the Secretary of State for Scotland at a time when the government was resisting calls for Scottish devolution. Its overall purpose was to estimate the overall UK borrowing requirement for Scotland - it was created at this time because Scottish Office ministers thought due to then-low oil prices, the report would show Scotland gained far more from the UK Treasury than it received.[5] In a leaked memo the then Secretary of State for Scotland Ian Lang wrote "I judge that [GERS] is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties. This initiative could score against all of them.”[6]

So while we have unionist parties in Westminster there will always be question marks around the figures they provide.
 
I find the posts here really puzzling. There is a coherent case to be made for independence. So why go for stuff which is so easily refuted? A lot of the comment on the numbers, but much of this is the stuff of conspiracy theories. Essentially the case is that civil servants and Westminster are lying to us. You get this with GERS too. Even though this was described by the former FM as the 'gold standard'. And the tactics of conspiracy theorist have really been deployed. Statement: 'there are no numbers for exports'. Answer: yes there are and here they are. Statement: these are lies. Answer: show us the lies. And then the classic conspiracy theory tactic-find something that looks like an anomaly and trumpet as proof that 'they' are at it. What it is reduced to is that civil servants are involved in a vast conspiracy to lie to us ( although as Jack makes clear he believes it's not civil servants in Scotland).

I think it is really healthy to question stuff that all governments issue. But it needs rigorous analysis and refutation, not conspiracy focused nonsense. I really think it undermines the case.
I find this entire post puzzling, in that you cited a specific report to counter a pro-indy advert then questioned the veracity of bits of it that don't suit you.

I like facts and am certainly no conspiracy theorist, but I'm sick of seeing unionist politicians and media using similar methods to this, ie. either being economical with the truth or simply making stuff up and getting away with it. Once the half-truths and falsehoods are published then they become fact for too many.
 
Classic conspiracy theory practice - comparison to something that they manifestly are not. They aren't the same as company accounts so why would an accountant sign them off? The Scottish Government described GERS as the 'gold standard '. Were they wrong? Do you really believe that Westminster civil servants deliberately provide false information to Scottish Government civil servants? And that Scottish Government civil servants are too stupid to spot it? Do you realise how absurd that sounds? You are forced down that rabbit hole because GERS is produced by Scottish Government civil servants, Because you (currently) don't like the numbers then they have to be discredited by any means necessary,
 
I find this entire post puzzling, in that you cited a specific report to counter a pro-indy advert then questioned the veracity of bits of it that don't suit you.

I like facts and am certainly no conspiracy theorist, but I'm sick of seeing unionist politicians and media using similar methods to this, ie. either being economical with the truth or simply making stuff up and getting away with it. Once the half-truths and falsehoods are published then they become fact for too many.
You didn't refute it though. I asked for evidence of lying. You pointed to an technical adjustment in a report published by the Scottish Parliament Information Centre and and said it was proof. But your only support for this argument was an 'aye right' assertion. So again, can you point me to examples of the lies you refer to. And as a point of clarification, I'm not citing politicians but official publications produced by the Scottish Government and the Scottish Parliament. These are not political spin.
 
You didn't refute it though. I asked for evidence of lying. You pointed to an technical adjustment in a report published by the Scottish Parliament Information Centre and and said it was proof. But your only support for this argument was an 'aye right' assertion. So again, can you point me to examples of the lies you refer to. And as a point of clarification, I'm not citing politicians but official publications produced by the Scottish Government and the Scottish Parliament. These are not political spin.
Your interpretation of the document in question is skewed by the argument you believe. The methodology was obviously wrong which is why it was changed - your blinkered view won't let you accept that.

Anyway, we're not going to agree and I'm not going to spend my Sunday preaching to the unconvertable. I have better things to do.
 
Your interpretation of the document in question is skewed by the argument you believe. The methodology was obviously wrong which is why it was changed - your blinkered view won't let you accept that.

Anyway, we're not going to agree and I'm not going to spend my Sunday preaching to the unconvertable. I have better things to do.
I'm not trying to convert anyone. I am concerned at the decline in political discourse where uncomfortable facts are simply shouted down as fake news or scaremongering. We've seen it with Trump and we've seen it with Brexit. It's not healthy for democracy.

I appreciate that you don't want to continue. But I have to make clear that I'm not disputing that there was a change I the methodology. What I am disputing is that somehow proves your assertion that the figures were lies. It really doesn't and you haven't put forward anything to make the case. Maybe I'm not the blinkered one.
 
I'm not trying to convert anyone. I am concerned at the decline in political discourse where uncomfortable facts are simply shouted down as fake news or scaremongering. We've seen it with Trump and we've seen it with Brexit. It's not healthy for democracy.

I appreciate that you don't want to continue. But I have to make clear that I'm not disputing that there was a change I the methodology. What I am disputing is that somehow proves your assertion that the figures were lies. It really doesn't and you haven't put forward anything to make the case. Maybe I'm not the blinkered one.
I didn't say they were lies though, I said they were false. It's because they were false that the method of calculation was changed.

Unless you think Hebridean whisky owned by a London company is an English export, then they weren't false.
 
Maybe I'm not the blinkered one.
You are. Everybody is to one degree or another. You just happen to be one of those who's so embedded in their own understanding of the world around them that any challenge to your narrative results in throwing generalisations about the level of political discourse and accusations of conspiracy theories.
 
You are. Everybody is to one degree or another. You just happen to be one of those who's so embedded in their own understanding of the world around them that any challenge to your narrative results in throwing generalisations about the level of political discourse and accusations of conspiracy theories.
The decline in political discourse starts at the top with those at Westminster now openly taking the piss.

Or maybe Douglas Ross & Murdo Fraser are the level to which we should be aspiring?
 
You are. Everybody is to one degree or another. You just happen to be one of those who's so embedded in their own understanding of the world around them that any challenge to your narrative results in throwing generalisations about the level of political discourse and accusations of conspiracy theories.
What patronising rubbish. You might as well describe me as one of the sheeple. I wasn't making generalisations either. I pointed to data, which I'm told is wrong, but nobody shows me how. There's an easy way to sort this. Point me to the evidence of lies and your case is made. It's as simple as that.
 
What patronising rubbish. You might as well describe me as one of the sheeple. I wasn't making generalisations either. I pointed to data, which I'm told is wrong, but nobody shows me how. There's an easy way to sort this. Point me to the evidence of lies and your case is made. It's as simple as that.
You need a mirror chief.
 
What patronising rubbish. You might as well describe me as one of the sheeple. I wasn't making generalisations either. I pointed to data, which I'm told is wrong, but nobody shows me how. There's an easy way to sort this. Point me to the evidence of lies and your case is made. It's as simple as that.
You're the one going on about lies, no-one else.
 
OK. Point me to the evidence of where the figures are false.
Again? P24 of the report.

"Prior to December 2016, the HMRC figures were estimated using a methodology which may have resulted in exports being allocated to parts of the UK where companies’ headquarters were located, instead of where goods were being physically exported from."

If you try to argue with that I'm just going to ignore you.
 
Fine, but why don't you address the fundamental point.
Because I'm not that arsed and I've not followed the detail of what you're even arguing about. You came on with the generic reference to people "on here" as if the Bounce is some kind of amorphous mass. Then started throwing out accusations of conspiracy theories. Peevemor has pointed out multiple times that a methodology change has to be done for a reason and therefore it makes prior analysis questionable (unless it's the methodology change itself that's questionable of course). He didn't say they were lies You didn't fancy responding to that so went on a rant about political discourse, lies and conspiracy theories is what I see.
 
Only thing I don’t understand about Labour these days is their continued backing for Bexit. An disaster that we Scots did not vote for. I would rejoin the EU in a heartbeat.
 
Only thing I don’t understand about Labour these days is their continued backing for Bexit. An disaster that we Scots did not vote for. I would rejoin the EU in a heartbeat.
Everything about Labour just now is just about not alienating any voters. It's very hard to see what they'll actually do when in power as any manifesto will need to be so close to being a Tory manifesto it'll leave them little wiggle room.

Unless they win the election with a massive majority, bin the manifesto and bring Corbyn back.
 
Scotland needs and independent Labour Party. People can criticise the SNP all they want but it's not their fault that their opposition are London controlled toothless shitebags.
 
It’s not all about money FFS 🤪🤪🤪.
Independence is about not being part of phoney wars. Nort sending our soldiers to kill and be killed on Americas behalf.
Its about not spending billions on nukes. It’s about not being ruled by millionaires, who went to Eton and have no connection or interest with us. It’s about leaving behind the lies, corruption, the elite, the smirking, and our economy being driven by what happens in one city.
Everyone is acting like little Thatcherite bastards, squabbling over money.
Scotland would easily stand on its feet . We have the food, the produce , the natural resources, the universities, the skills, the desire.
A lot of people want what we’ve got , some don’t want to let it go 🤔. Meat, fish , whisky from these lands , is cherished around the whole globe. Not to mention our oil, electricity and water.
We don’t need hard facts , or lies for that matter. Open your eyes, look at other independent countries, with a fraction of our resources. They get along quite nicely. Why the fuck , folk think Scotland couldn’t , I will never know..
We maybe wouldn’t get a top seat t the nato table, or be considered a world leader, but who cares about that? When did it ever benefit me and you?
Never.
Just have a look at our last half a dozen leaders. I should have posted that last sentence, it says it all really.
When we were unable to go to loved ones funerals, these fuckers were out partying. Never , ever forget that. They don’t and never have cared for anyone but themselves.
Get out.
 
Because I'm not that arsed and I've not followed the detail of what you're even arguing about. You came on with the generic reference to people "on here" as if the Bounce is some kind of amorphous mass. Then started throwing out accusations of conspiracy theories. Peevemor has pointed out multiple times that a methodology change has to be done for a reason and therefore it makes prior analysis questionable (unless it's the methodology change itself that's questionable of course). He didn't say they were lies You didn't fancy responding to that so went on a rant about political discourse, lies and conspiracy theories is what I see.
Ok - this is a football message board. It's fun, but not that important. So best to leave I think. But I do have to pick up some of your points, particularly as you haven't followed the thread.

This started as a response to posters claiming that Scottish exports through English ports aren't counted as Scottish. That's simply not true. From that arose Peevemore's claim that the stats before 2016 (and apparently bandied about by better together) were false. The only evidence put for for this was a change in the methodology of a report I cited, with this change from 2016. Was this change significant? I don't know. Can a change in methodology invalidate previous results? Maybe or maybe not. But that's it. There was a lot of noise about figures being dodgy, but no evidence. I felt that some of the responses were attempts to throw shade on the issue rather than engage. Hence my conspiricy theory comments.

By getting drawn into the intial discussion I have been accused of being a unionist, implications about being a tory, closed minded, inability to deal with challenge and a bit of cod-psychology asking me to reflect. But no one has actually shown me where the Scottish Government and Scottish Parliament figures are false.
 
I'm not trying to convert anyone. I am concerned at the decline in political discourse where uncomfortable facts are simply shouted down as fake news or scaremongering. We've seen it with Trump and we've seen it with Brexit. It's not healthy for democracy.
You forgot to mention the lies and fake news spouted by the unionists during the last independence campaign.
There was a lot of noise about figures being dodgy, but no evidence.
UK/Britain/England/Westminster has form for lying during independence campaigns. Ask India, Canada, Malta, Australia etc al. It was as if by magic, on independence, the found millions/billions hidden under the mattress. All these countries were too wee, too poor, too stupid to be independent countries. I'd suggest they're doing just fine.
So best to leave I think.
I'll tell you what @Archie before you go [back to dotnet I presume] why don't you hang around and start a thread on the benefits of Scotland staying in the union.
 
I'm just not going to engage with this personal nastiness.

Fair play.

I’m not going to get involved as to whether I agree with your posts on this thread or not, but I must admit I find it a bit sad that those like yourself who post a differing view of politics on here are increasingly being berated.

Hounding out posters who don’t share the same views achieves nothing. (Not an official Bounce Admin position, just my own opinion).
 
I haven't seen anyone being particularly nasty to Archie or hounding him out of anywhere. I have seen Archie being deliberately disingenuous and people maybe becoming annoyed with it.
 
Ok I'll go for Indy,if it upsets the apple cart why wouldn't I? But in reality it won't do that it 'll only give it a wee shoogle.All the arguments seem to be about export tarrifs and can we sell our whisky.Which is fine,I get it ,but it doesn't begin to tackle the fact that Bolsanaro cuts down the Amazon Rain Forest,displaces the indingenous people's, the ice caps are melting,we're going to lose our seals and polar bears, Bangladesh is going to become an island nation, meanwhile the Somalians are starving to death whilst the Chinese pump out crap through their chimneys.
It doesn't matter if it boils our pish, make the Maltese cross and fucks up the Cubans.No amount of Indy for us the Basques or the Catalonians is going to solve the problem of late period Capitalist malaise.Only workers power can achieve that.A wee German lady with a humphy back said it back in 1919 the choice is either between Barbarism or Socialism.
 
I'm just not going to engage with this personal nastiness.

Pleased you are not, why should you, your opinion is as valid as any other. In that opinion, why do you think Scotland should remain in the union, or otherwise?
 
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I'm not trying to be obtuse here, but for me that's not the right question. I think the framing of it reduces issues to the constitutional question and, as is very clear, people get very exercised by that. But the nature of a binary perspective is that leads to are you with us or are you against us. I think that stifles debate and also introduces divides that aren't really there. This is a roundabout way of saying that there is more that unites us than divides us, but the constitutional question hinders that.

That looks like I'm avoiding the question, but I will return to it. If you were to ask me what I think the dominant political issues are for me it wouldn't be the constitution. At home I would lead on the housing crisis, energy, providing decent health care and education. In the wider world there is obviously Ukraine, the growth of China as a power block and , of course climate change. I think society is very shaky just now and there is a world wide move to anti-politics which could be very dangerous. I think there is a catastrophic failure in political leadership in Westminster, but I don't think that gets the Scottish Government off the hook. I don't think it's healthy to have a position that governments are above criticism. But because of the sensitivity around the constitutional question I see a tendency to defend at all costs. If you are not for us you are against us. It means we don't properly engage with issues.

By way of an example I'll cite university education. What do we want to achieve here? I want as many young people as possible to get a university education. Now you could argue that no fees does that. But the practical effect of this is a cap on Scottish students and a massive increase in foreign students who pay high fees. I was astonished to read that Edinburgh has 11,500 UK students and 5,000 Chinese students. Now I welcome foreign students, but a lot of these places could have gone to Scottish kids. But because no university fees is a policy of the Scottish Government, it's almost impossible to have any debate about widening access that touches on fees. And this is distorting opportunity for Scottish kids. And I think this is replicated across other key policy areas.

On the constitutional question I think there are pros and cons to independence. There is some attraction in having government closer to the people. I think for many the potential to go into the EU will be attractive. Could we make a go of it. Sure. Should we make a go of it? I'm much less certain. I think it would be an extended and convulsing event which could leave us pretty much where we were before. All that energy for what? Now I appreciate that for many people the constitutional question is so important that it wouldn't matter if we were richer or poorer. I am not one of these people - it just doesn't register for me in the same way.

I have a number of other thoughts on this, but this is already pretty lengthy so I'll leave it for now.
 
I'm not trying to be obtuse here, but for me that's not the right question. I think the framing of it reduces issues to the constitutional question and, as is very clear, people get very exercised by that. But the nature of a binary perspective is that leads to are you with us or are you against us. I think that stifles debate and also introduces divides that aren't really there. This is a roundabout way of saying that there is more that unites us than divides us, but the constitutional question hinders that.

That looks like I'm avoiding the question, but I will return to it. If you were to ask me what I think the dominant political issues are for me it wouldn't be the constitution. At home I would lead on the housing crisis, energy, providing decent health care and education. In the wider world there is obviously Ukraine, the growth of China as a power block and , of course climate change. I think society is very shaky just now and there is a world wide move to anti-politics which could be very dangerous. I think there is a catastrophic failure in political leadership in Westminster, but I don't think that gets the Scottish Government off the hook. I don't think it's healthy to have a position that governments are above criticism. But because of the sensitivity around the constitutional question I see a tendency to defend at all costs. If you are not for us you are against us. It means we don't properly engage with issues.

By way of an example I'll cite university education. What do we want to achieve here? I want as many young people as possible to get a university education. Now you could argue that no fees does that. But the practical effect of this is a cap on Scottish students and a massive increase in foreign students who pay high fees. I was astonished to read that Edinburgh has 11,500 UK students and 5,000 Chinese students. Now I welcome foreign students, but a lot of these places could have gone to Scottish kids. But because no university fees is a policy of the Scottish Government, it's almost impossible to have any debate about widening access that touches on fees. And this is distorting opportunity for Scottish kids. And I think this is replicated across other key policy areas.

On the constitutional question I think there are pros and cons to independence. There is some attraction in having government closer to the people. I think for many the potential to go into the EU will be attractive. Could we make a go of it. Sure. Should we make a go of it? I'm much less certain. I think it would be an extended and convulsing event which could leave us pretty much where we were before. All that energy for what? Now I appreciate that for many people the constitutional question is so important that it wouldn't matter if we were richer or poorer. I am not one of these people - it just doesn't register for me in the same way.

I have a number of other thoughts on this, but this is already pretty lengthy so I'll leave it for now.
Firstly, I don’t think you have received personal nastiness. I could be wrong , but I’ve not seen it , and this place kinda doesn’t tolerate it, and quite rightly so.
It does however tolerate a difference of opinion, voiced in an old fashioned way.
I get the feeling you are a well thought through person, who of course is entitled to their views, and I am very happy to hear them , and potentially be swayed by a different take on things.
But if you can be arsed, can you just pretend we are not in this union, and you have been asked to give a reason why we should join it.
What reason could you put over , to explain why you think it is the way forward?
 
I’ve met Archie in the real world, although he probably won’t remember. Not because of his alcohol or drug dependency, more because I’m not really memorable.
In his professional life, I thought he was decent.

But he’s in a different world now…..

Keep going Archie, the Bounce is made for non conformists, no matter what we don’t conform to.
 
That may be the case right now. But it was also the case for the Republic of Ireland - now they are trading with both the UK and the 27 countries in the EU.

Should we stick around in the union because they are a big trade partner if that means shutting the door to a massive bloc of countries across the sea? Its highly unlikely the UK will stop drinking whisky, eating Scottish produce and using energy if Scotland votes to handle its own affairs. Why not aspire to trade with the rUK and the EU?
Ireland is an EU country an Independent Scotland won’t be and if we are lucky enough to get accepted which is highly unlikely given the Spanish stance on regional independence it could take years. What you would find is an independent Scotland outside the UK and the EU with Scottish businesses having to negotiate a multitude of tariffs and red tape to export goods to our two biggest trading partners.
There is also the risk of foreign investors especially financial and IT companies abandoning Scotland if their free access to the English market is suddenly stopped