YouGov predicting Reform will cost Tories 96 seats

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egb_hibs

egb_hibs

Private Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2002
Given that they project labour to have a 120 seat majority this is quite telling as to what is actually going on in Britain. And as ever, thwarted by FPTP, because Reform are not projected to win a single seat.

Britain really is pickled in aspic by FPTP - there’s a revolution going on all across Europe but we are stuck with the managerialist hegemony. Still, as I’ve noted before it’s not all bad by any means as many of the revolutionaries are as unpleasant as revolutionaries usually are. You wonder how long it can go on though.

 
I'd feel reasonably confident that a two term Labour government would see PR introduced. However, I reckon Labour will be a one term government.
 
Smurf said:
I'd feel reasonably confident that a two term Labour government would see PR introduced. However, I reckon Labour will be a one term government.
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It’s not in their or the tories interest is the problem. The British political landscape would change completely with PR and pretty rapidly. I think some ukip / reform style thing would have already of replaced one of them if we had PR.
 
It’s really hard for me to foresee Labour winning a second term. They can’t really do anything different economically to the tories, so will be under enormous pressure to instead lead with social stuff that panders to the London elite and the moon cult. That will see them roundly rejected by everyone else and the tories will be able to pin a rosette on a donkey the next time round.
 
egb_hibs said:
It’s not in their or the tories interest is the problem. The British political landscape would change completely with PR and pretty rapidly. I think some ukip / reform style thing would have already of replaced one of them if we had PR.
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I think many within Labour absolutely see the need to end FPTP. He's no longer a member but Alastair Campbell absolutely sees the need for reform of it and i think he shares an opinion that there could be a more longer term progressive movement if the FPTP was changed. I think many within Labour and also the Tories recognise that it's only this FPTP nonsense that sees these deeply divided parties (broad church doesn't begin really!) as they are. I think it's on their agenda but I'm not so sure it would be electorally popular to flush out such proposals this side of an election.
 
egb_hibs said:
It’s really hard for me to foresee Labour winning a second term. They can’t really do anything different economically to the tories, so will be under enormous pressure to instead lead with social stuff that panders to the London elite and the moon cult. That will see them roundly rejected by everyone else and the tories will be able to pin a rosette on a donkey the next time round.
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I agree. I do think though that Starmer and Reeves are more ambitious than they're letting on. So I think they'll be more radical than expected. I hope so!
 
Smurf said:
I think many within Labour absolutely see the need to end FPTP. He's no longer a member but Alastair Campbell absolutely sees the need for reform of it and i think he shares an opinion that there could be a more longer term progressive movement if the FPTP was changed. I think many within Labour and also the Tories recognise that it's only this FPTP nonsense that sees these deeply divided parties (broad church doesn't begin really!) as they are. I think it's on their agenda but I'm not so sure it would be electorally popular to flush out such proposals this side of an election.
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But don’t Labour (understandably) get keen on PR during their wilderness spells and immediately cool on it once they are in power? Campbell is smoking crack if he thinks it improves the chances of a ‘progressive movement’. Well, at least if he means by that what the word normally means today.

If he means something more concerned with traditional labour politics, well that’s different. But that’s incompatible with contemporary progressive politics, which is why everywhere else, the populist right is becoming the workers party.
 
Smurf said:
I agree. I do think though that Starmer and Reeves are more ambitious than they're letting on. So I think they'll be more radical than expected. I hope so!
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I think they are. I just don’t think it’s possible for them to change things economically. It’s not about them, it’s about the context they will be operating in.
 
egb_hibs said:
I think they are. I just don’t think it’s possible for them to change things economically. It’s not about them, it’s about the context they will be operating in.
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I agree.

There's dark clouds all over the world just now. So the economic landscape could be radically different in 12 months time.

The left though here in the UK will just scream for the rich to be more heavily taxed as that'll produce the answers and money to solve all the issues.

Caught up with a few mates this weekend over a few beers. One a civil servant who told us his working week will be reduced later in the year to 32 hours. Very nice of the Scottish Government to help his work:life balance on the public purse. The rest of us all self employed working longer hours for less pay since Covid etc were kind of in amazement. One a long term SNP voter said that was him done ever voting for them again.

Folk in the real world have had enough.
 
Smurf said:
I agree.

There's dark clouds all over the world just now. So the economic landscape could be radically different in 12 months time.

The left though here in the UK will just scream for the rich to be more heavily taxed as that'll produce the answers and money to solve all the issues.

Caught up with a few mates this weekend over a few beers. One a civil servant who told us his working week will be reduced later in the year to 32 hours. Very nice of the Scottish Government to help his work:life balance on the public purse. The rest of us all self employed working longer hours for less pay since Covid etc were kind of in amazement. One a long term SNP voter said that was him done ever voting for them again.

Folk in the real world have had enough.
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Public sector work far fewer hours than private, never mind self employed. I mean a nominal working week is just the start of it - that’s a meaningless concept in the private sector other than perhaps in call centre type scenarios.

It’s not that that’s good, but it’s required to pay for the public - it was particularly galling in the 00s when Brown was beggaring the country in a way we haven’t recovered from to lavishly reward the public sector, while screwing private pensions and importing lots of wage deflating labour.

Of course the retort from the beneficiaries is that this is regrettable us and them politics, and maybe it is, but it was government policy that established the division.

And the chickens have long come home; the economy is buggered six ways to Sunday, the public sector now itself stares at the offshoring reaper, and the only people making hay are the already wealthy, turbo charged by the low interest rates required by the impoverishing buggers muddle that underpins the modern state.

I actually believe Starmer and Reeves would like to change it but I don’t think they can. As I’ve said before, the crowing over Liz Truss’ demise was ironic on the part of people whose ‘go to’ is that a national budget is not like a household one. The Truss debacle definitively destroyed that delusion to the applause of its advocates, possibly too illiterate in respect of the real world to even appreciate the fact. Starmer not only has to face the markets, but also the left, whose priorities are every bit as antithetical to labour interests.

I think his heart is in the right place but he has no chance.
 
For the avoidance of doubt @Smurf as my track record may not make it obvious, I hope Starmer wins and blooters not only the tories but the increasingly decadent SNP.

But as above I think he has no chance thereafter, though I wish him well.

The only hope I see is for this to prompt the tories to hand the reigns to someone like Kemi Badenoch and for her to have the balls to start dismantling the liberal hegemony. And I hope that would then give labour permission to become more like the (still existing - and my actual preference) SDP, and complete that dismantling on a bi partisan basis.

One can but dream. The alternative, by mid century, is a real nightmare. A genuine blood on the streets nightmare.
 
The only Labour leader to win a general election in the last 50 years is Tony Blair.

As you say egb he got drunk on his power snd importance and ditched the promise of a referendum on electoral reform.

And if Kier doesn’t see it through with PR then it might be a long long time before we see Labour with this level of influence again
 
egb_hibs said:
For the avoidance of doubt @Smurf as my track record may not make it obvious, I hope Starmer wins and blooters not only the tories but the increasingly decadent SNP.

But as above I think he has no chance thereafter, though I wish him well.
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Looks like snp will still win a majority of seats in Scotland, but the problem with Starmer like a lot of Labour politicians is they just don’t get the mood of the Scottish people or independence…like Thatcher in 79 they just ignored the Scottish problem and hoped it would go away.

And at some point, probably very soon, the grown ups will take back the snp.
 
Purple & Green said:
The only Labour leader to win a general election in the last 50 years is Tony Blair.

As you say egb he got drunk on his power snd importance and ditched the promise of a referendum on electoral reform.

And if Kier doesn’t see it through with PR then it might be a long long time before we see Labour with this level of influence again
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See I disagree B. Labour are finished if we get PR - or at least will need to become something very very different to what the London chattering classes demand. Now maybe Starmer is open to that but he would need to be incredibly brave.
 
Purple & Green said:
Looks like snp will still win a majority of seats in Scotland, but the problem with Starmer like a lot of Labour politicians is they just don’t get the mood of the Scottish people or independence…like Thatcher in 79 they just ignored the Scottish problem and hoped it would go away.

And at some point, probably very soon, the grown ups will take back the snp.
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I supported the SNP from school days to very recently, for independence, nothing else. I think the argument is lost tbh. I don’t think there is natural majority and I don’t ever think there is likely ever to be more of a chance of one than at the referendum time. We desperately need mass immigration and that will just dilute support. I mean it cost us independence even as it was at the time iirc (English migrants being sufficient to tip the balance).

We need to move on is my grim conclusion, because as it stands, the whole thing is used to disguise realities that need a response.
 
New opinion poll also suggests Nigel Farage would win Clacton from the Tories. IMO it is ridiculous the extent the BBC is promoting Reform with Tice on loads of their programming already with no elected representatives.
 
Smurf said:
New opinion poll also suggests Nigel Farage would win Clacton from the Tories. IMO it is ridiculous the extent the BBC is promoting Reform with Tice on loads of their programming already with no elected representatives.
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Is it really ridiculous? Setting aside that the BBC will be doing all they can to weaken the tories / split their vote, Reform have more support right now than the Lib Dems.

Like UKIP before them they’ve achieved this from a position of massive disadvantage (as with any insurgent party in our system). Some form of UKIP / Reform party would possibly already have formed a government on a more level playing field.

Surely the BBC are obliged to cover even setting aside the helpful fact it’s bad for the tories?
 
Smurf said:
New opinion poll also suggests Nigel Farage would win Clacton from the Tories. IMO it is ridiculous the extent the BBC is promoting Reform with Tice on loads of their programming already with no elected representatives.
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Computer suggests otherwise


But

That was a ukip seat in 2015, however Farage is a marmite character who generates strong feelings of repulsion - which is probably why he’s never won a seat in parliament.
 
Purple & Green said:
Computer suggests otherwise


But

That was a ukip seat in 2015, however Farage is a marmite character who generates strong feelings of repulsion - which is probably why he’s never won a seat in parliament.
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That's based on national trends not a specific seat opinion poll. Big Farage financial backer Arron Banks commissioned a poll by Survation that's put him on 37%. Tories on 27% and Labour 23%. Farage saying this is more encouraging him to get back out onto the field....
 
Smurf said:
That's based on national trends not a specific seat opinion poll. Big Farage financial backer Arron Banks commissioned a poll by Survation that's put him on 37%. Tories on 27% and Labour 23%. Farage saying this is more encouraging him to get back out onto the field....
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They’re also accurate when it comes to forecasting v results. If there’s enough empirical evidence through opinion polls it’ll be reflected in time.
 
Smurf said:
New opinion poll also suggests Nigel Farage would win Clacton from the Tories. IMO it is ridiculous the extent the BBC is promoting Reform with Tice on loads of their programming already with no elected representatives.
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Exactly the kind of place they’d likely prosper. A deprived backwater full of the kind of people despised by Emily Thornberry.

Otherwise known as the former labour vote.
 
egb_hibs said:
Exactly the kind of place they’d likely prosper. A deprived backwater full of the kind of people despised by Emily Thornberry.

Otherwise known as the former labour vote.
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That Corbyn etc pushed further away
 
Smurf said:
That Corbyn etc pushed further away
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In the event of PR I wonder if Reform would displace labour or the tories in the main?

Or perhaps they’d take chunks from both leaving L&T as two much smaller liberal parties. At that point one of them would possibly merge with the Lib Dems, or even with each other? A bit further down the line Labour will likely be further eroded as a Muslim party arrives, which will surely happen in due course.

Who knows for sure in terms of the final line up, but by 2050 and with PR, I’d expect an entirely different landscape. You’re probably talking some mix of a populist workers party, a small (actual) Conservative Party, an Islamo-left party, a liberal party, and a blue haired party. There might well be multiples of some of these in Peoples Front of Judea style.
 
The fact is that the game is rigged.

We're gonna end up with Starmer(Someone that nobody wants)

Due to the stupid first past the post.


If you think the Tories are bad....just wait till Mr Flipflop gets in.
 
egb_hibs said:
In the event of PR I wonder if Reform would displace labour or the tories in the main?

Or perhaps they’d take chunks from both leaving L&T as two much smaller liberal parties. At that point one of them would possibly merge with the Lib Dems, or even with each other? A bit further down the line Labour will likely be further eroded as a Muslim party arrives, which will surely happen in due course.

Who knows for sure in terms of the final line up, but by 2050 and with PR, I’d expect an entirely different landscape. You’re probably talking some mix of a populist workers party, a small (actual) Conservative Party, an Islamo-left party, a liberal party, and a blue haired party. There might well be multiples of some of these in Peoples Front of Judea style.
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I think we are going to see a huge swing towards populism. Too many on the left dismiss the anti woke feeling's in the real world. The middle class left think woke is progressive and dismiss working class concerns as "not educated enough to know or understand" just as they did and do with Brexit. The majority of working class think woke is complete lunacy that threatens our way of life. I think working class people are unbelievably patriotic and proud of who we are and how we got here. And they resent totally simple things like a boy being a boy and a girl being a girl being challenged... Unless the mainstream left challenge this bollocks (Starmer in government) the backlash is going to be unprecedented. I look at the USA. I'm bewildered at the popularity of Trump but yet I can totally imagine if I lived there I'd maybe vote for him?
 
Smurf said:
I think we are going to see a huge swing towards populism. Too many on the left dismiss the anti woke feeling's in the real world. The middle class left think woke is progressive and dismiss working class concerns as "not educated enough to know or understand" just as they did and do with Brexit. The majority of working class think woke is complete lunacy that threatens our way of life. I think working class people are unbelievably patriotic and proud of who we are and how we got here. And they resent totally simple things like a boy being a boy and a girl being a girl being challenged... Unless the mainstream left challenge this bollocks (Starmer in government) the backlash is going to be unprecedented. I look at the USA. I'm bewildered at the popularity of Trump but yet I can totally imagine if I lived there I'd maybe vote for him?
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I think you are right and I also think a Rubicon has been crossed with the sight of tens of thousands of people marching around chanting anti semitic slogans.

I think that we in this forum are much more politically interested than the general population, and many people have little idea what goes on among the upper middle class, beyond that they’re bonkers. I think things have changed since October 7th and people are watching with alarm and questioning where exactly this is all headed.

As for Trump I’m the opposite of you; I’m not in the least bewildered at his popularity but would never ever vote for him.
 
egb_hibs said:
I think you are right and I also think a Rubicon has been crossed with the sight of tens of thousands of people marching around chanting anti semitic slogans.

I think that we in this forum are much more politically interested than the general population, and many people have little idea what goes on among the upper middle class, beyond that they’re bonkers. I think things have changed since October 7th and people are watching with alarm and questioning where exactly this is all headed.

As for Trump I’m the opposite of you; I’m not in the least bewildered at his popularity but would never ever vote for him.
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Would you vote Biden if you lived over the pond?

I pray for a Biden win. I think the US election is more important to the UK than the UK GE in many ways... However, if I lived over there I'm far from convinced I could vote for Biden.
 
Smurf said:
Would you vote Biden if you lived over the pond?

I pray for a Biden win. I think the US election is more important to the UK than the UK GE in many ways... However, if I lived over there I'm far from convinced I could vote for Biden.
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No I would not; the democrats are just as in thrall to lunatics and racists, and the constituency who are the prime movers in America's unravelling.

None of the above for me there as it is here.
 
egb_hibs said:
No I would not; the democrats are just as in thrall to lunatics and racists, and the constituency who are the prime movers in America's unravelling.

None of the above for me there as it is here.
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I reckon you'll hold your nose and ultimately vote Labour in the UK GE....
 
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