TRUMP IS A See you next Tuesday

[Jack]

I hadn’t appreciated in all the brouhaha so far, that aside from the UK and some others who impose 10% tariffs on the US - which have been matched - the tariffs imposed on other countries are basically half what they impose on the US.

Maybe I’m missing something but that doesn’t seem completely outrageous, especially as most of those countries have a lower cost of production.

I mean how can country x be mad at America putting a tariff on them, that is half of what they put on America? I feel I must be missing something here, can anyone help me out?

Is he just talking pish about the tariffs imposed on the US?

I saw, but not confirmed anywhere serious, that Trump was suggesting VAT was an import tax. It's obviously not and it could well be Trump has got the wrong end of the stick when some poor sod has been trying to brief him. It is a bit of a coincidence though.

I also looked to see what the UK do. We have the Global Tariff. That seems to be more complex than our income tax regime! A barrier to imports on its own.

I have been aware in the past of countries, such as China and Japan imposing hefty import taxes on UK goods and wonder why we don't do the same. Looking at Trumps chart, if accurate, reflect what I thought.

AND I see Musk has already asked for exemptions to some of the Chinese import taxes. Computer stuff for his motors! Like the USA doesn't have a computer industry!

 

[Archie]

In what way is a new sales tax going to help American households? This is not about helping anyone it's about leveraging power simply because he can and he enjoys doing so.

Trump has outright lied that companies pay the tariffs, not consumers. By definition if you increase the cost of imports someone has to pay.

Now the long game appears to be to encourage home based manufacturing over imports. That's not of itself a bad thing. But the key question is why the US imports so many goods? Yes there is a luxury market for imports, but the vast bulk is because it's cheaper. And the main reason it's cheaper is labour costs.

So if US manufacturing is going to step in to replace imports, then US labour costs will be critical. You could argue that the tariffs will give some headroom here. But in the short to medium term the price of goods previously imported will go up.

While manufacturing gears up, there will be pressure on wages. I suspect you will see a focus of manufacturing development in the southern states. Lower wages and ferociously anti union. There may well be further anti union legislation.

Car manufacturers work on long planning cycles. So there isn't going to be an immediate uptick in jobs.

But this again illustrated the bull in a china shop approach to government that Trump has. To rebalance trade there should be bilateral discussions, not a chainsaw. These moves will cause economic turbulence and the US will not be immune from that.

But for a President elected on reducing prices he's going a very odd way about it.

 

[Archie]

I saw, but not confirmed anywhere serious, that Trump was suggesting VAT was an import tax. It's obviously not and it could well be Trump has got the wrong end of the stick when some poor sod has been trying to brief him. It is a bit of a coincidence though.

I also looked to see what the UK do. We have the Global Tariff. That seems to be more complex than our income tax regime! A barrier to imports on its own.

I have been aware in the past of countries, such as China and Japan imposing hefty import taxes on UK goods and wonder why we don't do the same. Looking at Trumps chart, if accurate, reflect what I thought.

AND I see Musk has already asked for exemptions to some of the Chinese import taxes. Computer stuff for his motors! Like the USA doesn't have a computer industry!

You're right about VAT. Trump referred to VAT as a tariff in his speech today. It's not a tariff, it's a sales tax. It's no different to US sales taxes paid in US stores.

 

[SuperTortolano]

In what way is a new sales tax going to help American households? This is not about helping anyone it's about leveraging power simply because he can and he enjoys doing so.

I genuinely believe he's trying to eradicate the over spending and money that has been wasted by the previous regimes before him. I also think the implementation of tariffs that he's suggesting is fair and won't affect Americans as badly as what is being portrayed. I also agree with the way he's shipping dangerous illegal immigrants out the country and trying to clean shit up. I feel more confident under his leadership than I did under Biden, that's for sure.

 

[egb_hibs]

In what way is a new sales tax going to help American households? This is not about helping anyone it's about leveraging power simply because he can and he enjoys doing so.

Well it seems like the auto and steel workers unions disagree. It absolutely hurts US consumers, but in theory it may well benefit US labour - where they are producers, as individuals they are also of course consumers. Overall, within the US, it should see a redistribution to manufacturing workers from everyone else.

 

[egb_hibs]

I saw, but not confirmed anywhere serious, that Trump was suggesting VAT was an import tax. It's obviously not and it could well be Trump has got the wrong end of the stick when some poor sod has been trying to brief him. It is a bit of a coincidence though.

I also looked to see what the UK do. We have the Global Tariff. That seems to be more complex than our income tax regime! A barrier to imports on its own.

I have been aware in the past of countries, such as China and Japan imposing hefty import taxes on UK goods and wonder why we don't do the same. Looking at Trumps chart, if accurate, reflect what I thought.

AND I see Musk has already asked for exemptions to some of the Chinese import taxes. Computer stuff for his motors! Like the USA doesn't have a computer industry!

Thanks @Jack and also @Bossie

Yes it looks like he is including VAT. The US doesn’t have a computer industry on the hardware side that can match Asia btw - which is a massive strategic risk for them, and central to the whole Taiwan question.

 

[GORDONSMITH7]

I see Musk has already asked for exemptions to some of the Chinese import taxes. Computer stuff for his motors! Like the USA doesn't have a computer industry!

Musk is more and more a political liability to Trump. Musk the 'Senior Advisor' off shortly, with a pat on the heid and glowing words from Trump, no doubt.

BIG G

 

[egb_hibs]

Trump has outright lied that companies pay the tariffs, not consumers. By definition if you increase the cost of imports someone has to pay.

Now the long game appears to be to encourage home based manufacturing over imports. That's not of itself a bad thing. But the key question is why the US imports so many goods? Yes there is a luxury market for imports, but the vast bulk is because it's cheaper. And the main reason it's cheaper is labour costs.

So if US manufacturing is going to step in to replace imports, then US labour costs will be critical. You could argue that the tariffs will give some headroom here. But in the short to medium term the price of goods previously imported will go up.

While manufacturing gears up, there will be pressure on wages. I suspect you will see a focus of manufacturing development in the southern states. Lower wages and ferociously anti union. There may well be further anti union legislation.

Car manufacturers work on long planning cycles. So there isn't going to be an immediate uptick in jobs.

But this again illustrated the bull in a china shop approach to government that Trump has. To rebalance trade there should be bilateral discussions, not a chainsaw. These moves will cause economic turbulence and the US will not be immune from that.

But for a President elected on reducing prices he's going a very odd way about it.

Yes I think tariffs are to allow labour to compete. At the end of the day, however it’s done - and it would be preferable for it to be achieved in other ways - people need to be prepared to pay more for goods and services if the western working class - and increasingly middle classes - aren’t going to be punked until their earnings sink to meet rising labour rates elsewhere.

This is the crux of the whole problem affecting western labour and leading to polarisation of wealth in western countries. Trump may be barking but this is the most radically pro labour measure any western country has undertaken in decades. Left wing as fuck to be blunt (in the old sense of left wing).

 

[Bossie]

Well it seems like the auto and steel workers unions disagree. It absolutely hurts US consumers, but in theory it may well benefit US labour - where they are producers, as individuals they are also of course consumers. Overall, within the US, it should see a redistribution to manufacturing workers from everyone else.

In theory you're right. In practice companies will try to replace labour requirements with capital equipment.

 

[egb_hibs]

In theory you're right. In practice companies will try to replace labour requirements with capital equipment.

Why would US companies do that in response to tariffs on their competition? I mean they may do so anyway, but this is if anything a deterrent. Matching competitors with a lower cost of production due to cheaper labour is a much bigger driver for that - which Trump has just put a huge leveller on.

The US has brought back a lot of manufacturing since fracking sent energy prices through the floor. This should in theory bring back a lot more. I’m assuming these tariffs aren’t just on finished goods but will affect supply chains. That’s arguably the bigger deal for jobs.

 

[egb_hibs]

You're right about VAT. Trump referred to VAT as a tariff in his speech today. It's not a tariff, it's a sales tax. It's no different to US sales taxes paid in US stores.

It’s very different, at least I think so. Sales tax is applied once at the point of sale; vat is levied throughout the supply chain. So US manufacturers will be paying vat on materials and components sourced from the EU and UK (charged by producer and paid to HMRC), and will be getting VAT added to the sale of materials and components into the EU and UK.

I’m not sure if there is an equivalent gain by the US in the other direction - I think sales tax is levied only on finished goods sold to the end consumer.

I could be wrong on this though.

 

[Bossie]

Well it seems like the auto and steel workers unions disagree. It absolutely hurts US consumers, but in theory it may well benefit US labour - where they are producers, as individuals they are also of course consumers. Overall, within the US, it should see a redistribution to manufacturing workers from everyone else.

OK so let's look at auto manufacture in more detail. 16 million new vehicles are sold annually while 10.6 million are manufactured in the US by 1.4 million auto workers.

So there's headroom for a bit of growth but it's not as if most US new vehicles are being imported.

Anyhow let's say that US produced vehicles could be bumped up by 3 million annually. That would create the sum total of 400,000 jobs

That sounds no bad, except the US workforce is about 160 million people. So the growth in auto workers would grow the US workforce by a measly 0.25%.

You could make a similar case for steel except that sector, with only 300,000 workers, is even more meh.

 

[egb_hibs]

OK so let's look at auto manufacture in more detail. 16 million new vehicles are sold annually while 10.6 million are manufactured in the US by 1.4 million auto workers.

So there's headroom for a bit of growth but it's not as if most US new vehicles are being imported.

Anyhow let's say that US produced vehicles could be bumped up by 3 million annually. That would create the sum total of 400,000 jobs

That sounds no bad, except the US workforce is about 160 million people. So the growth in auto workers would grow the US workforce by a measly 0.25%.

You could make a similar case for steel except that sector, with only 300,000 workers, is even more meh.

Put another way it’s an increase of near 30% of auto manufacturing jobs. The new total would be something like 1.5% of the private sector workforce, which is far from trivial. It will be a much bigger share of the working class private sector payroll.

Lies, damned lies, statistics etc.

 

[Bossie]

Why would US companies do that in response to tariffs on their competition? I mean they may do so anyway, but this is if anything a deterrent. Matching competitors with a lower cost of production due to cheaper labour is a much bigger driver for that - which Trump has just put a huge leveller on.

The US has brought back a lot of manufacturing since fracking sent energy prices through the floor. This should in theory bring back a lot more. I’m assuming these tariffs aren’t just on finished goods but will affect supply chains. That’s arguably the bigger deal for jobs.

They will have to because, as their more efficient foreign competitors bring highly automated processes to U S soil, the yanks will have to follow suit to remain competitive. Just imagine the impact of a highly efficient, high quality, locally based Volkswagen manufacturing operation at scale will do to local US competitors.

 

[egb_hibs]

They will have to because, as their more efficient foreign competitors bring highly automated processes to U S soil, the yanks will have to follow suit to remain competitive. Just imagine the impact of a highly efficient, high quality, locally based Volkswagen plant will do to local US competitors.

I’m fairly sure most of what is readily automatable was automated a long time ago. I could be wrong, but in any case there is no way that making foreign competition more expensive is damaging to domestic labour (in the affected fields). If VW open plants in the US, that’s new jobs in the US even if more efficient, and I’m not sure they are. Based on your numbers, the US actually looks more efficient than the EU’s 5.1 cars per auto worker.

Of course a real reason the US doesn’t sell higher numbers of cars is few people elsewhere want to buy their road-going tanks. That’s something the Donald appears to be overlooking in terms of trade deficits (or more likely doesn’t care).

 

[hibbybilly]

How much more for a Big Mac or a KFC after Trumps Budget?

 

[Greenmachine]

Watching DT with that chart with all the countries listed, during his speech was a bit like watching the Eurovision song contest.

I can understand what he is trying to do, and why he is doing it, I just think it is doomed to failure.
People vote for who they think's policies are best for their families and themselves, and 80 million Americans put their trust in Trump, who said he would bring down prices and provide more jobs. Causing global economic chaos doesn't seem to me to be the right way to do that. I feel he will pay the price big time when it all goes wrong.

 

[egb_hibs]

Watching DT with that chart with all the countries listed, during his speech was a bit like watching the Eurovision song contest.

I can understand what he is trying to do, and why he is doing it, I just think it is doomed to failure.
People vote for who they think's policies are best for their families and themselves, and 80 million Americans put their trust in Trump, who said he would bring down prices and provide more jobs. Causing global economic chaos doesn't seem to me to be the right way to do that. I feel he will pay the price big time when it all goes wrong.

It’s interesting. Whatever else can be said, he seems to be genuinely engaged in trying to bolster the American working class, at the expense of almost everyone else. National security being an intertwined goal as well.

He seems entirely careless of, indeed hostile too, the interests of Wall Street and the state bureaucracy.

In this we can see the contours of the political landscape that is shaking out everywhere, hardening and becoming the basis of policy alignment. Trumps demarcations align the left with big finance and the public sector workforce, perhaps in due course pharma also, which is the way things have been drifting (with the remaining elements being a cohort of voters maintained via dependency and stoking of identity grievances).

He seems to be setting himself up around manufacturing and raw materials production, while also trying to align big tech his way - which is fraught with challenges as they are a combustible mix of nailed on progressive left and batshit libertarian right, neither of which gel well with worker interests.

He’s forcing a position which if it works, cements his party of that of the blue collar worker. And which even if it doesn’t work, makes clear that their interests are not compatible with those of the liberal world order - which if nothing else is an interesting dilemma to force upon reality defying narratives.

 

[HaarlemShuffler]

The chart with the countries and tariffs on it.... just occurred to me...

 

[Smurf]

Is anyone seriously questioning that on trade most countries have been ripping the piss out of the USA. Seems to me many want unfettered access to the rich domestic American market but should they export to others tariffs are the way....

If Starmer does get some trade agreement in the next few weeks dropping the 10% announced it would be some huge achievement it has to be said....

 

[egb_hibs]

Is anyone seriously questioning that on trade most countries have been ripping the piss out of the USA. Seems to me many want unfettered access to the rich domestic American market but should they export to others tariffs are the way....

If Starmer does get some trade agreement in the next few weeks dropping the 10% announced it would be some huge achievement it has to be said....

Do they though? The EU and UK apply VAT on both domestic and imported goods and services, which extracts a supply-chain levy the US afaik don’t apply on others. But that’s a choice and the EU / UK VAT is not discriminatory (whether or not it’s a good thing).

The EU also arguably stifle innovation with their regulatory regime to the detriment of US business, but again also to domestic ones. Which is one reason Europe is dying but it’s not discriminatory.

In terms of pure tariffs, Bossie has posted the EU line above. Now they may be fibbing but if they are not, tariffs themselves are closer to 1%. I suspect America’s trade deficit is more to do with the progressive boss class’s penchant for offshoring and the strength of the dollar, as well as the above.

Now the tariffs still go to those issues, but as ever it would be helpful if it didn’t come served up with untruths. We’ve had quite enough of those I’d argue, from progressive or populist alike.

 

[Smurf]

Do they though? The EU and UK apply VAT on both domestic and imported goods and services, which extracts a supply-chain levy the US afaik don’t apply on others. But that’s a choice and the EU / UK VAT is not discriminatory (whether or not it’s a good thing).

The EU also arguably stifle innovation with their regulatory regime to the detriment of US business, but again also to domestic ones. Which is one reason Europe is dying but it’s not discriminatory.

In terms of pure tariffs, Bossie has posted the EU line above. Now they may be fibbing but if they are not, tariffs themselves are closer to 1%. I suspect America’s trade deficit is more to do with the progressive boss class’s penchant for offshoring and the strength of the dollar, as well as the above.

Now the tariffs still go to those issues, but as ever it would be helpful if it didn’t come served up with untruths. We’ve had quite enough of those I’d argue, from progressive or populist alike.

I'd agree that they've been at it in most instances. However, there's no doubt for example China has had it pretty easy.... Then again their formula produces this nonsense...

Trump tariffs live updates: EU and China vow to respond as Starmer says UK economy will 'clearly' be hit

The US president announces a 10% tariff on all imports, with further measures targeting countries the White House calls the "worst offenders".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Jack]

I think a decent international debate would be why these countries at the top of DTs list have such high import tariffs.

 

[Jack]

Do they though? The EU and UK apply VAT on both domestic and imported goods and services, which extracts a supply-chain levy the US afaik don’t apply on others. But that’s a choice and the EU / UK VAT is not discriminatory (whether or not it’s a good thing).

The EU also arguably stifle innovation with their regulatory regime to the detriment of US business, but again also to domestic ones. Which is one reason Europe is dying but it’s not discriminatory.

In terms of pure tariffs, Bossie has posted the EU line above. Now they may be fibbing but if they are not, tariffs themselves are closer to 1%. I suspect America’s trade deficit is more to do with the progressive boss class’s penchant for offshoring and the strength of the dollar, as well as the above.

Now the tariffs still go to those issues, but as ever it would be helpful if it didn’t come served up with untruths. We’ve had quite enough of those I’d argue, from progressive or populist alike.

Businesses can reclaim the VAT they pay on imported goods subject to the normal VAT rules.

And then there's goods and services that are VAT free, just as there is domestically.

"Import duty is a type of tax payable on the value of imported goods. Value Added Tax (VAT) is another type of tax payable by the end consumer."

I think simply put. Forget import tax. If I import £1,000 worth of widgets I'll pay £200 in VAT. I then sell these widges to punters for £2,000 plus £400 VAT. I keep the original £200 back, my VAT refund, and pay the VAT folk £200.

 

[Bossie]

Is anyone seriously questioning that on trade most countries have been ripping the piss out of the USA. Seems to me many want unfettered access to the rich domestic American market but should they export to others tariffs are the way....

If Starmer does get some trade agreement in the next few weeks dropping the 10% announced it would be some huge achievement it has to be said....

Of course people are questioning Trumps assertion. Cos it's shite.

 

[egb_hibs]

Businesses can reclaim the VAT they pay on imported goods subject to the normal VAT rules.

And then there's goods and services that are VAT free, just as there is domestically.

"Import duty is a type of tax payable on the value of imported goods. Value Added Tax (VAT) is another type of tax payable by the end consumer."

I think simply put. Forget import tax. If I import £1,000 worth of widgets I'll pay £200 in VAT. I then sell these widges to punters for £2,000 plus £400 VAT. I keep the original £200 back, my VAT refund, and pay the VAT folk £200.

thanks Jack. Trump may still be pissed that the UK exchequer collects far more from US made goods sold in the UK or EU than is the reverse with our goods sold there. But this is more about local tax policy than any discrimination against US sellers (the same taxes applying to domestically produced goods).

In other words, while the US doesn’t lose out competitively, I expect he’ll view it as European governments freeloading off US manufacture. The real answer to that is for the US to have a VAT system rather than tariffs.

 

[emerald green]

3.5T dollars added to the debt in tax give aways to the rich then 1.5T in new tax give aways.

think china just banned imports of US soya beans ... a $13b nightmare for US farmers.... S.Korea and Japan will join with China in combatting certain tariffs. The wests 2 biggest partners in Asia

Aye, poor USA getting shafted everywher eh.... cant believe they have been bullied into all these deals. thank fuck for the trumpet rapist to come to everyones aid.

All these posts which have the likes of "ill say one thing for Trump blah blah" or hes a "very clever blah blh".... well hitler was a fucking vegetarian, so it all works out eh

bammers

 

[egb_hibs]

3.5T dollars added to the debt in tax give aways to the rich then 1.5T in new tax give aways.

think china just banned imports of US soya beans ... a $13b nightmare for US farmers.... S.Korea and Japan will join with China in combatting certain tariffs. The wests 2 biggest partners!

Aye, poor USA getting shafted everywher eh.... cant believe they have been bullied into all these deals. thank fuck for the trumpet rapist to come to everyones aid.

All these posts which have the likes of "ill say one thing for Trump blah blah" or hes a "very clever blah blh".... well hitler was a fucking vegetarian, so it all works out eh

bammers

Absolutely Trump’s tariffs are a nightmare for US capitalists, I think everyone agrees on that ….but also a potential benefit to the US working class. Which has been the point of associated ‘I’ll say one things…’. Note the ‘potential’, there are any number of ways it can backfire.

What’s your thoughts on this point? Capitalist interests over worker interests, or something else?

Trump’s tax cuts which he is seeking to extend, reduced the share of tax paid by the less wealthy and increased that paid by the wealthy btw. I mean the less well off became better off in his first term, that’s one reason so many swung to him. Of his new proposals I know nought. In any case, they were and are unaffordable, but I guess that’s why he is now cutting the state - in other words seeking to stimulate growth and revenue producing jobs by cutting the outgoings.

It’s all wildly reckless - threatening the interests of capitalism is tricky business as Rachel Reeves is finding out, never mind some of Trump’s frankly far-left buccaneering. But i am interested in your thoughts on capital vs worker interests here.

 

[Smurf]

Of course people are questioning Trumps assertion. Cos it's shite.

A lot of it is. But not all...

 

[Bossie]

A lot of it is. But not all...

So, who is ripping the pish out of the Yanks? It's not the EU, for example. Maybe it's Vietnam and Cambodia, seeing as Trump is going all-in bully on those guys, but I doubt it very much.

 

[Jack]

Donald Trump’s tariffs: what’s happening and what could it mean for the UK? - Full Fact

Our explainer looks at the latest announcements on tariffs from the US administration.

fullfact.org

 

[Smurf]

So, who is ripping the pish out of the Yanks? It's not the EU, for example. Maybe it's Vietnam and Cambodia, seeing as Trump is going all-in bully on those guys, but I doubt it very much.

China.

 

[SuperTortolano]

It's quite funny the rhetoric that gets put out about Trump by MSM. Before his first stint it was all about him starting WW3 with his finger on the "big red button" This time around before he took office, it was all about him making all his cronies rich and being for the rich.

 

[Doc Shrink]

It's quite funny the rhetoric that gets put out about Trump by MSM. Before his first stint it was all about him starting WW3 with his finger on the "big red button" This time around before he took office, it was all about him making all his cronies rich and being for the rich.

And being a clown.
Don’t forget that bit.

He is.

 

[Jack]

CEO of a UK arms manufacturer that makes quite specialised stuff, quite a lot for the USA.

10% tariff. Don't care. It will just cost the American government more at the end of the day.

 

[BVilleggiante]

So my wife works for a large, global shoe conglomerate here in the US that owns many brands....they had a company call today which was lead by their President who said with the tariffs now implemented, their profit margin is 0%. Their president...on a global company call said they no longer no what to do because they cannot predict what needs to be done because the changes are so fast....imagine being so f*cked that you admit that to your entire global workforce They were in the process of moving some of their manufacturing to other countries and away from China but now that there is a global tariff, that's coming to a halt as it no longer makes financial sense. They do have one shoe brand made in the US but they're screwed too because guess where the supplies for the shoes come from...yep, overseas. I don't see a lot of shoe companies opening up tanneries and rubber factories here in the US, do you?

 

[egb_hibs]

So my wife works for a large, global shoe conglomerate here in the US that owns many brands....they had a company call today which was lead by their President who said with the tariffs now implemented, their profit margin is 0%. Their president...on a global company call said they no longer no what to do because they cannot predict what needs to be done because the changes are so fast....imagine being so f*cked that you admit that to your entire global workforce They were in the process of moving some of their manufacturing to other countries and away from China but now that there is a global tariff, that's coming to a halt as it no longer makes financial sense. They do have one shoe brand made in the US but they're screwed too because guess where the supplies for the shoes come from...yep, overseas. I don't see a lot of shoe companies opening up tanneries and rubber factories here in the US, do you?

I don’t mean to be insensitive given the spot your wife is in. But speaking from experience of knowing hundreds - including myself - put out of a job in relation to offshoring, the point of this debacle is implied here. It may or may not succeed but the point here is to make it now viable for companies to open tanneries or rubber companies in the states.

What we have seen since the 90s is those things and so many more becoming unviable due to undercutting from offshore labour. This may not work, may well not work, but if it doesn’t then there really is no end for manual labour until their descending standard of living meets the rising one of developing world labour.

And not just manual labour either. It will proceed ‘up the value chain’ without end.

 

[joethehibby]

CEO of a UK arms manufacturer that makes quite specialised stuff, quite a lot for the USA.

10% tariff. Don't care. It will just cost the American government more at the end of the day.

All this tariff malarky, can the rest of the world like uk,china,japan, etc. not just increase trade with each other and tell USA to do one

 

[Jack]

All this tariff malarky, can the rest of the world like uk,china,japan, etc. not just increase trade with each other and tell USA to do one

At the end of the day it's the end user, us the consumer, that decide.

If I want to buy something I'll do a wee bit of research and decide on price and quality then buy it. It doesn't really matter where it's coming from although I try and buy as close to home ... and avoid China.

 

[Archie]

I'm sure that those who support or oppose Trump’s approach can agree that it's convulsive and disruptive. These aren't necessarily reasons not to do something, but I'm not seeing anything measured or considered about Trump’s actions. In fact it's difficult to see anything approaching a reasoned plan in the actions this week. The responses range from it's a catastrophe to delight that Trump is doing something for workers. That and a bit of own the libs glee.

But what is the endgame? Ostensibly it's to boost US manufacturing and jobs and squeeze out imports. Will it work? Maybe, but it won't be quick and there will be a lot of pain on the way. The messages coming for Republicans this week is Americans will need to get used to paying more and maybe consume less. These certainly weren't part of the election campaign.

But there's also the external impact of tariffs. I don’t just mean declining trade, but using them to prise open foreign markets. Trump conflated lots of different things into his rambling speech on this. Some barriers were indeed tariffs. But others were standards that countries apply. We don't allow chlorinated chicken. The US does. Should we accept that we have to accept chlorinated chicken in return for lower tariffs? And that's chickenfeed (see what I did there) compared to regulation around tech companies. The real battleground with the EU.

I noticed that there was a lot of comment around the dramatic falls in the stock market suggesting that this showed Trump was anti Wall Street and for workers. Well in the US this will have a direct impact on pension funds and anyone here with a shares based ISA or private pension fund should just not look at it for a bit.

But I think there is an underlying driver to all this beyond simple America first and macho posturing. In the run up to the election there was chatter about tariffs raising so much money that they could lead to dramatic tax cuts. If that was to happen it would lead to an enormous transfer of the tax burden from income and corporate taxes to funds raised through tariffs which in turn were transferred to consumers. And that benefits the rich. But that only works if manufacturing doesn't return to the US. So there is an upside for the super wealthy if the publicly stated aims aren't achieved. I'm not saying that this is the plan, but it’s an interesting perspective. Before anyone jumps in with 'win win' it really isn't. Because the collateral damage will be enormous.

I think one of the key factors will be how much people in the US are prepared to stomach. I'm sure there will be some recovery in the stock market. Will it cover pension pots - who knows? But rising prices, with maybe jam tomorrow might not cut it. And if disposable incomes drop then watch out property prices. After reunification/handover in Hong Kong property prices fell be 50%. I'm not saying that would happen in the US. But Hong Kong had a market resilience and psyche that coped with it. I'm less sure that is the case in the west.

So what is the strategy? Cudgel to beat trade partners? Tool to repatriate jobs to the US? Undermining China? Or develop government income streams to cut taxes? It might be all of these or none. My biggest fear? I don't think Trump knows either.