The remarkable rise of UKIP

[egb_hibs]

Despite the usual attempts by the establishment to demonise UKIP, according to this remarkable data, it seems to be gaining support equally from people deserting the tories, labour and libdems;

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/farage-factor-ukip-support-record

Maybe people are finally turning against the bully culture that has had it's own way for long enough?

Mainstream political parties really do seem in a little trouble as well. I'm sure they'll weather it in the end - in this country anyway - but one of these days an alternative party will surely break through somewhere in europe. And few are as benign as UKIP.

 

[Smurf]

Agreed. Too easy to dismiss them as nutters and racists.

 

[Jack]

I listened to a short bit on the World Service the other day which implied their new support was Tory middle England, with virtually no support in Scotland. This only surprised me in so much as Scotland got a mention.

I think in time, and not that much into the future the Tories will mop up most of their ideas and flog them, rebranded, to their looney right who will then come to heel.

Farange talks a decent game but he's outside the box and I doubt he'll be allowed in.

 

[egb_hibs]

I listened to a short bit on the World Service the other day which implied their new support was Tory middle England, with virtually no support in Scotland. This only surprised me in so much as Scotland got a mention.

I think in time, and not that much into the future the Tories will mop up most of their ideas and flog them, rebranded, to their looney right who will then come to heel.

Farange talks a decent game but he's outside the box and I doubt he'll be allowed in.

i'm sure they have a lot less traction in Scotland, where the snp provides an alternative. But the guardians figures suggest that in England they are taking voters equally from the Tories, labour and lib dems, which challenges the clichs about Tories.

There's a lot going on and I don't think any one issue - and certainly not the eu - is behind it. As an aside though, I remember us discussing whether - rights or wrongs of it aside - the Tories were , from an electoral strategy point of view, bonkers in becoming gay marriage zealots. Well it sure looks that way, despite some respondees on he thread thinking it would be of no consequence.

Whether its that issue or another, I think ukip are profiting from people turning against a bullying elite who have come to dominate both parties and the establishment.

 

[Gareth]

But the guardians figures suggest that in England they are taking voters equally from the Tories, labour and lib dems, which challenges the clichs about Tories.

No it doesn't, it says each of the three lost an equal vote share, thats a slightly different thing.

The fact that UKIP are now openly talking about an alliance with the right wing of the Tory Party should put pay to non right wing loonies supporting them.
And re your initial comment, I think the remarkable thing is how MUCH attention UKIP have received over the last few years. A few MEPs and a few councillors until the recent election and they were treated as if they were big hitters.
That said, I want new political parties to try and break the centre right consensus in this country. There are swathes of the UK population on the right and the left who are effectively disenfranchised which raises serious questions about democracy.

 

[HibsNibs]

the centre right consensus in this country.

.....errr centre left surely. Cameron is the bastard son of Blair after all. That's why UKIP (slightly right of centre) is making hay.

 

[Gareth]

.....errr centre left surely. Cameron is the bastard son of Blair after all. That's why UKIP (slightly right of centre) is making hay.

That only holds if you don't see Blair having picked up from Thatcher, she certainly thought so.

 

[HibsNibs]

fair point, but you would never have seen the Thatcher govt bring in gay marriage etc.

 

[O'Driscoll]

A funny one this, I think UKIP will damage the Tories more than Labour. Indeed the Tory party are already in disarray over Europe (again!).

With regards to Labour, Farage said something interesting during the local elections in England, he said most of their activists in the north were Labour. This is the vacuum in the North of England where traditional labour supporters previously turned to the BNP. That said, when it comes to a general election, their support will either mostly revert to Labour or not vote at all. In the South and middle England they will have the effect on the Tories that the SDP had on Labour in the 80's.

My reason for this argument is that the Labour party appear fairly united and the Tories don't. People don't like divided parties no matter what they stand for and thus the Tories will look like Labour did in the 80's, the right wing alternative being UKIP.

there is another aspect that EGB has eluded to, the main parties often get too mixed up in social issues and 'personal is political' stances. UKIP can pick up on the frustration of people who are concerned more about jobs and the economy, an understanding that many people are conservative with a small c is a key strength for Farage.

His main weakness however is that he presides over a broad tent politics which hosts, right wing Tories, disaffected Liberals, ex BNP, Old Labour types and some generally disenfranchised activists. This is always difficult to hold together and it is my belief that their support in the North of England will struggle but in the South they will be seen by some voters as the true conservatives.

Of course only time will really tell.

 

[Tomsk09]

No it doesn't, it says each of the three lost an equal vote share, thats a slightly different thing.

The fact that UKIP are now openly talking about an alliance with the right wing of the Tory Party should put pay to non right wing loonies supporting them.
And re your initial comment, I think the remarkable thing is how MUCH attention UKIP have received over the last few years. A few MEPs and a few councillors until the recent election and they were treated as if they were big hitters.
That said, I want new political parties to try and break the centre right consensus in this country. There are swathes of the UK population on the right and the left who are effectively disenfranchised which raises serious questions about democracy.[/QUOTE

Equally instructive was the little reported collapse of the BNP vote at the recent Council elections dropping from 11% to 3% where they fielded candidates. This is not a just recent phenomenon as BNP and UKIP have traded votes with one another for some years now depending on whose brand of xenophobia is in the ascendancy, but it takes no genius to work out where BNP voters went in the Council poll. We will never know for certain the actual reasons why people are hanging their colours to the UKIP mast but those figures underpin my speculation that it is the party where xenophobes, racialists and little Englanders can find comfort in numbers.

A few questions for UKIP's fellow travellers to ponder: will the UKIP vote stand up when the control of Westminster is at stake? And, does UKIP have the internal infrastructure, or even the grassroots desire, to stand up to the former BNP followers and party activists?

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A funny one this, I think UKIP will damage the Tories more than Labour. Indeed the Tory party are already in disarray over Europe (again!).

With regards to Labour, Farage said something interesting during the local elections in England, he said most of their activists in the north were Labour. This is the vacuum in the North of England where traditional labour supporters previously turned to the BNP. That said, when it comes to a general election, their support will either mostly revert to Labour or not vote at all. In the South and middle England they will have the effect on the Tories that the SDP had on Labour in the 80's.

My reason for this argument is that the Labour party appear fairly united and the Tories don't. People don't like divided parties no matter what they stand for and thus the Tories will look like Labour did in the 80's, the right wing alternative being UKIP.

there is another aspect that EGB has eluded to, the main parties often get too mixed up in social issues and 'personal is political' stances. UKIP can pick up on the frustration of people who are concerned more about jobs and the economy, an understanding that many people are conservative with a small c is a key strength for Farage.

His main weakness however is that he presides over a broad tent politics which hosts, right wing Tories, disaffected Liberals, ex BNP, Old Labour types and some generally disenfranchised activists. This is always difficult to hold together and it is my belief that their support in the North of England will struggle but in the South they will be seen by some voters as the true conservatives.

Of course only time will really tell.

If only ... only joking, EGB.

Good post by the way.

 

[O'Driscoll]

No it doesn't, it says each of the three lost an equal vote share, thats a slightly different thing.

The fact that UKIP are now openly talking about an alliance with the right wing of the Tory Party should put pay to non right wing loonies supporting them.
And re your initial comment, I think the remarkable thing is how MUCH attention UKIP have received over the last few years. A few MEPs and a few councillors until the recent election and they were treated as if they were big hitters.
That said, I want new political parties to try and break the centre right consensus in this country. There are swathes of the UK population on the right and the left who are effectively disenfranchised which raises serious questions about democracy.[/QUOTE

Equally instructive was the little reported collapse of the BNP vote at the recent Council elections dropping from 11% to 3% where they fielded candidates. This is not a just recent phenomenon as BNP and UKIP have traded votes with one another for some years now depending on whose brand of xenophobia is in the ascendancy, but it takes no genius to work out where BNP voters went in the Council poll. We will never know for certain the actual reasons why people are hanging their colours to the UKIP mast but those figures underpin my speculation that it is the party where xenophobes, racialists and little Englanders can find comfort in numbers.

A few questions for UKIP's fellow travellers to ponder: will the UKIP vote stand up when the control of Westminster is at stake? And, does UKIP have the internal infrastructure, or even the grassroots desire, to stand up to the former BNP followers and party activists?

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If only ... only joking, EGB.

Good post by the way.

Alluded! :laff:

 

[Nex]

I must say that I love how the "rise of UKIP" has been splattered all over the "British media", including media which has Scotland in its very title.

UKIP are nothing up here, at the last local elections they got something like less than half a percent of the vote, even their leader has come out and said Scotland is a wasteland for them.

In typical form the London run "Scottish" media just copy pastes whatever is going on down in Englandshire.

Remember that one of the main claims of the "Better Together" campaign opposing Scottish Independence was that Scotland would get kicked out of Europe and have to reapply? Well with the rise of UKIP and UKIP support in a fair chunk of Tory party it is seeming like staying IN the UK is more likely to see our relationship with Europe nosedive.

Regardless of your thoughts on being part of the EU the way UKIP and much of the Tory party go about alienating Britiain from Europe is NOT the way to go about leaving.

 

[egb_hibs]

Tomsk - bnp helpfully imploded which is always likely with such fruitbats. That said, they're growing again by these figures

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No it doesn't, it says each of the three lost an equal vote share, thats a slightly different thing.

The fact that UKIP are now openly talking about an alliance with the right wing of the Tory Party should put pay to non right wing loonies supporting them.
And re your initial comment, I think the remarkable thing is how MUCH attention UKIP have received over the last few years. A few MEPs and a few councillors until the recent election and they were treated as if they were big hitters.
That said, I want new political parties to try and break the centre right consensus in this country. There are swathes of the UK population on the right and the left who are effectively disenfranchised which raises serious questions about democracy.

Okay Gareth - have it your way. Lets leave at the fact that all main parties are losing support in equal numbers while ukip rapidly grow. Meanwhile just keep dismissing their appeal as being towards right wing loonies and play your part in assisting that growth.

To your second point - they are for now considerably more popular than the libdems and I don't think the attention they get matches that. Beforehand they weren't notably more covered than, say, the greens. They undoubtedly benefit from farage's tv friendly persona though, which probably helped along the way - see also real fringe players like George Galloway who trade on the same.

 

[Gareth]

Okay Gareth - have it your way. Lets leave at the fact that all main parties are losing support in equal numbers while ukip rapidly grow. .

I didn't mention anything about all parties losing support in roughly equal numbers, we can discuss that if you like? You said they're all losing equal shares of support to UKIP and thats just not true from either the article you refer to or any other stats we have.

Meanwhile just keep dismissing their appeal as being towards right wing loonies and play your part in assisting that growth..

two thing EGB old fruit. they are in the process of trying to form an electoral pact with the far right MPs in the Tory party. They are a one issue party without any serious analysis whatsoever, unless you think leaving the EU solves Britains problems?. Second, do you really think me saying they're loonies is going to help them grow? If I had that sort of power I'd be thinking seriously about how best to use it.

To your second point - they are for now considerably more popular than the libdems and I don't think the attention they get matches that. Beforehand they weren't notably more covered than, say, the greens. They undoubtedly benefit from farage's tv friendly persona though, which probably helped along the way - see also real fringe players like George Galloway who trade on the same.

I think they got a hugely disporoportionate amount of airplay over the past few years, far more than the Greenies. As I said in my initial comments I support breaking down the three party consensus, but do have concerns that right wing media can elevate people and organisations to positions not available to others. The Greenies prior to the last election had an MP, which UKIP didn't, and more councillors than UKIP but got nowhere near their coverage.

 

[egb_hibs]

A funny one this, I think UKIP will damage the Tories more than Labour. Indeed the Tory party are already in disarray over Europe (again!).

With regards to Labour, Farage said something interesting during the local elections in England, he said most of their activists in the north were Labour. This is the vacuum in the North of England where traditional labour supporters previously turned to the BNP. That said, when it comes to a general election, their support will either mostly revert to Labour or not vote at all. In the South and middle England they will have the effect on the Tories that the SDP had on Labour in the 80's.

My reason for this argument is that the Labour party appear fairly united and the Tories don't. People don't like divided parties no matter what they stand for and thus the Tories will look like Labour did in the 80's, the right wing alternative being UKIP.

there is another aspect that EGB has eluded to, the main parties often get too mixed up in social issues and 'personal is political' stances. UKIP can pick up on the frustration of people who are concerned more about jobs and the economy, an understanding that many people are conservative with a small c is a key strength for Farage.

His main weakness however is that he presides over a broad tent politics which hosts, right wing Tories, disaffected Liberals, ex BNP, Old Labour types and some generally disenfranchised activists. This is always difficult to hold together and it is my belief that their support in the North of England will struggle but in the South they will be seen by some voters as the true conservatives.

Of course only time will really tell.

Agree re Tories , in the round.
Labour will lose votes but the Tories may lose seats.

I think ukip could end up as the Tory sdp -
In fact iirc farage has said that's an intent. He has cross cutting appeal though and may also force labour to reconsider what was once its core constituency

 

[Tomsk09]

The LibDems' place in the coalition is another factor in UKIP's current popularity. Traditionally, the LibDems have functioned as the mid-term protest party of choice for your standard goldfish voter, but now in government (I know, I know) they are seen to be part of the problem. In fact, thanks to the well-oiled and long-established complicity between the Tory leadership and Tory media they are actually seen in some eyes as the greater problem than the real party in government when we all know that all they are really doing is propping up Cameron's busted flush administration with their bought-and-paid-for votes through the lobby.

Of course, the LibDems, better than even the BNP and the Greens, will know what happens to protest party voters when the chips are down. It's a lesson UKIP have still to learn. The Tories will hang out some right-wing worms to hook their disaffected voters before the next general election but what will really get the pension funders and blue rinsers jumping into the boat will be the message that if you vote UKIP you're letting Labour in.

 

[egb_hibs]

fair point, but you would never have seen the Thatcher govt bring in gay marriage etc.

Otoh - thatcher turned the Tory party into a classical liberal party - or swung the balance that way at any rate - which is indivisible from what Cameron is doing. Both the Tories and labour now chase the liberal capitalist classes which is behind this move; both also have their gaggle of other interests and this is where Dave has miscalculated I think. Labours are dependent to a greater extent which gives labour freer reign to pursue a
Liberal agenda

 

[emerald green]

At points in our recent history, I'm sure Labour and Conservative have had around 96% of the voting gig.

 

[levenhibee]

Despite the usual attempts by the establishment to demonise UKIP, according to this remarkable data, it seems to be gaining support equally from people deserting the tories, labour and libdems;

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/farage-factor-ukip-support-record

Maybe people are finally turning against the bully culture that has had it's own way for long enough?

Mainstream political parties really do seem in a little trouble as well. I'm sure they'll weather it in the end - in this country anyway - but one of these days an alternative party will surely break through somewhere in europe. And few are as benign as UKIP.

Of course their was a time when the SNP and indeed the Labour Party were not mainstream parties.

 

[Nex]

Well Farage got the welcome he deserved when he arrived in Edinburgh yesterday.

Forced to hide in a pub while the police stood outside and then put him in a police van to take him away from anti-UKIP protesters.

Just like what happened to the National Front "march" that tried to happen a few years back.

Of course Farage being Farage he has blamed this entirely on "anti-English" sentiments as opposed to "anti-arsehole" sentiments and he has been doing the rounds of the media to talk about his "ordeal".

 

[egb_hibs]

You think? I thought it both sad to see students acting as stooges of the status quo where their forebears used to challenge it. And more seriously I found it disturbing how they have effortlessly picked up the authoritarian dynamics of that establishment - the grey hairs shut down dissenters through pc and the law' while their young stooges onto the street to do it by force.

Pathetic - not least give those stooges have been epically shafted by those gray hairs.

Fight for the powers that be you sad little conformists.

 

[Nex]

A non-violent protest against a racist attempting to achieve political power will never be seen as a bad thing in my eyes.

I suppose you think just as little of those who confronted Oswald Mosley and his fascists in the 1930s?

 

[egb_hibs]

I think those 'confronting' farage are much closer to Mosleya ideology than he is, in every way.

Do you know how fanatical it sounds to equate farage with Moseley? Emblematic of an authoritarian mindset that demonises rather than debates. Much like fascism really

 

[Tomsk09]

I liken Farage more to the likes of Matthew Hopkins. Self-righteous, absolutely convinced of his own infallibility and set free to pursue an imagined bugbear by the easily duped who've bought into his convenient, catch-all scaremongering.

I bet barely a tenth of the people who voted for him in the recent local election have got the first idea of how Europe actually works. But since the world's going to hell in a handcart it must be all those foreigners who are driving the cart.

It's the age we live in.

 

[timberfox]

A non-violent protest against a racist attempting to achieve political power will never be seen as a bad thing in my eyes.

I suppose you think just as little of those who confronted Oswald Mosley and his fascists in the 1930s?

Your proof of him being a racist please

 

[BurbankHibee]

A non-violent protest against a racist attempting to achieve political power will never be seen as a bad thing in my eyes.

I agree but that's not what I saw. That was just a bunch of yobs hurling abuse for the sake it.

 

[Pilrig]

UKIP in Scotland = lost deposits.

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Nige an' his mates not only want Britain oot of Europe but also tae end devolution...oh an' legalize fox huntin' again. Loveable, cuddly bastards, aint they ?

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I'm surprised that Nige didnae go intae Jenny Ha's for a pint, that's where the "S"DL took refuge when they turned up at Holyrood.

 

[egb_hibs]

So farage - like most scots - believes in the union and doesn't think the state should stop people hunting.

You may disagree - I do with some of his views - but this makes him Oswald Moseley ?

Says more about his accusers it really does, and the self righteous religious tenor of the pc establishment and those who tug their forelocks to it

 

[Jack]

I listened to a short bit on the World Service the other day which implied their new support was Tory middle England, with virtually no support in Scotland. This only surprised me in so much as Scotland got a mention.

I think in time, and not that much into the future the Tories will mop up most of their ideas and flog them, rebranded, to their looney right who will then come to heel.

Farange talks a decent game but he's outside the box and I doubt he'll be allowed in.

Can I change that a wee bit to say he comes across as a total prick - at least he did yesterday and today in the radio/TV interviews.

A classless coward who runs away and then name calls. I've now heard the students a few times and if he canny cope with that, well more a flange than a Nigel.

 

[1875]

Despite the usual attempts by the establishment to demonise UKIP, according to this remarkable data, it seems to be gaining support equally from people deserting the tories, labour and libdems;

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/farage-factor-ukip-support-record

Maybe people are finally turning against the bully culture that has had it's own way for long enough?

Mainstream political parties really do seem in a little trouble as well. I'm sure they'll weather it in the end - in this country anyway - but one of these days an alternative party will surely break through somewhere in europe. And few are as benign as UKIP.

You missed a bit...in England.

 

[Nex]

The policies of his party on immigration, culture and international relations are behind my view that his party are racist. Nothing more than the BNP with a thin Tory veneer on it.

EGB my comparison to Mosley was not a totally direct one. It was more based upon your view that people should not speak out about fringe nutters because "it supports the status quo" and "helps the establishment".

And fringe nutters are what UKIP are here in Scotland.

I can't remember if you were opposed to the people who protested against the "S"DL, National Front and BNP in those groups past public showings

 

[aggie]

So farage - like most scots - believes in the union and doesn't think the state should stop people hunting.

You may disagree - I do with some of his views - but this makes him Oswald Moseley ?

Says more about his accusers it really does, and the self righteous religious tenor of the pc establishment and those who tug their forelocks to it

"SUPPORT for independence stands at 30 per cent, according to the latest poll on Scotland's future.

Three in 10 people would vote Yes if the ballot is held tomorrow, while 51 per cent would vote No, the survey by TNS BMRB suggests.

The remaining 19 per cent do not know how they would vote."

While I guess 51% constitutes "most Scots", I think the tenor of your statement is disingenuous. I believe that a large percentage of that 51% will be voting simply through fear of altering the status quo, as opposed to genuine belief in the union - I can, however, only base that on my own family and friends' views (and various bams in Middletons ). What I am positing is that to say that most Scots "believe in the union" is false - in fact, I'd go so far as to say that you've been taken in by your own bete noire, ie establishment propaganda.

 

[Pilrig]

So farage - like most scots - believes in the union and doesn't think the state should stop people hunting.

You may disagree - I do with some of his views - but this makes him Oswald Moseley ?

Says more about his accusers it really does, and the self righteous religious tenor of the pc establishment and those who tug their forelocks to it

Did I say he was like Mosley, or a racist ? He says he aint a racist, and I accept that, but he's a xenophobe. Besides he and his crew an' their allies on the tory Right have as much relevance up here as the late Dave Sutch had.

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Nige came up here to play to the gallery of the Right in south-east England. Us 'sweaties' played straight man to him.

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Oh and the state shouldn't stop people huntin' ? Mebbe the state shouldnae stop them bear-baitin' or dog-fightin' either ?

 

[Nex]

Interesting how Farage came all the way to Edinburgh, to show his support for a candidate in an Aberdeen by-election.

I wonder if he goes to Liverpool or Manchester to show his support for a candidate in Newcastle.

 

[Kurt]

I can't help feeling that Nigel Farage would feel very comfortable in a SS uniform.

 

[Nex]

Nah that'd be way too obvious.

I nice expensive well tailored shirt...in a lovely shade of light brown would be fine though.

 

[Kurt]

Nah that'd be way too obvious.

I nice expensive well tailored shirt...in a lovely shade of light brown would be fine though.

Someone tells me that in Malawi farage is a word for a fanny.....





....same as Britain, then!!

 

[mikeythibs]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22586537

Looks like we are heading for a very different place to Englandshire should things change in 2014.

It is interesting to read they think we have a different attitude to immigration to the English. Is that not simply because we have only just become affected by it to any great extent? Even though Edinburgh had about 5000 Spanish pitch up to work last year and the well documented thousands of Eastern Europeans, it is nowhere near the cultural mix of many of Englands cities and towns.

Will we still be so sure of ourselves in this respect if we have a free for all immigration policy when England and Wales try to shut up shop?

And why, when we have so many young unemployed, are the SNP not looking to get them into work ahead of bringing in cheap foreign labour? Surely that is a moral obligation?

 

[Nex]

Well Scotland needs more immigration our population growth since the end of WW2 has been woefully slower than most nations in europe.

The 200,000 drop in population during Thatchers reign as PM certainly didn't help that.

And why, when we have so many young unemployed, are the SNP not looking to get them into work ahead of bringing in cheap foreign labour? Surely that is a moral obligation?

That smacks very much of a "they're takin our jobs" line of thinking.

However the fact that Scotland is showing lower unemployment and lower youth unemployment than the UK as a whole and more importantly the employment rates are going up shows that even with their limited controls the Scottish Government has things heading in the right direction.

 

[mikeythibs]

That smacks very much of a "they're takin our jobs" line of thinking.

And that to be honest isn't a very helpful accusation. This is the kind of thing that stops people having an honest and proper debate about immigration because it inevitably gets shut down by people making veiled hints that there could be more to it than simply discussing an issue of supply and demand and how immigration has affected the working class in this country in terms of pay rates etc. Its not those at the top of the food chain who are affected by immigration policies but those at the bottom. EGB has made this point time and time again, if I recall rightly.

However the fact that Scotland is showing lower unemployment and lower youth unemployment than the UK as a whole and more importantly the employment rates are going up shows that even with their limited controls the Scottish Government has things heading in the right direction.

Numbers are going up but so is the population. It is 20% mate. 20% doesn't mean 80% employed either. A host of initiatives take the kids off the dole numbers. It is a disgrace and it needs addressing. This reading this morning was right royally depressing.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...cots-face-low-pay-and-few-prospects-1-2936480

All very sad indeed. :sad