Second anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine

[GORDONSMITH7]

It happened yesterday. I was a bit taken aback there was not a single word about this on the Ukraine thread.
In fact I decided after we stuffed Dundee to read through 72 pages to assert why this could be.
Vast coverage about Russian losses, on a daily basis with clappers giving thumbs up and general derision of stuff I put on because it was seen by pro Russian propaganda. Which is drivel.
In fact when I posted at the time MSM were saying that Russia were running out of weapons and that it was absolute nonsense, one Bouncer took umbrage and went in the huff, not to be seen for months. So be it.
Anyway what do folk think two years on where the present situation is and going. To kick things off I offer a position which I think is a measured analysis, which will be totally opposite what many think or want to think but may resonate with some.
Published five days before this anniversary of death and destruction.

The fall of Avdiivka: The beginning of the end | The Communist

Western imperialism is facing the prospect of a humiliating defeat in Ukraine. Support for Zelensky and his government is falling, both at home and abroad. Washington and NATO have scandalously pushed Ukrainians into fighting an unwinnable war.

communist.red

BIG G

 

[Dier - 1558]

It happened yesterday. I was a bit taken aback there was not a single word about this on the Ukraine thread.
In fact I decided after we stuffed Dundee to read through 72 pages to assert why this could be.
Vast coverage about Russian losses, on a daily basis with clappers giving thumbs up and general derision of stuff I put on because it was seen by pro Russian propaganda. Which is drivel.
In fact when I posted at the time MSM were saying that Russia were running out of weapons and that it was absolute nonsense, one Bouncer took umbrage and went in the huff, not to be seen for months. So be it.
Anyway what do folk think two years on where the present situation is and going. To kick things off I offer a position which I think is a measured analysis, which will be totally opposite what many think or want to think but may resonate with some.
Published five days before this anniversary of death and destruction.

The fall of Avdiivka: The beginning of the end | The Communist

Western imperialism is facing the prospect of a humiliating defeat in Ukraine. Support for Zelensky and his government is falling, both at home and abroad. Washington and NATO have scandalously pushed Ukrainians into fighting an unwinnable war.

communist.red

BIG G

An astute and thought provoking summation as ever Big G.

 

[egb_hibs]

Seems a long time ago. I can remember being in the boozer with pals shortly before it and they were all of the view that Vladi was sabre rattling. Nah, he’s going to do it was my view.

Like I guess many including himself, I thought he would steam roller Ukraine’s forces when we did. It is testimony to the huge courage of the Ukrainian people that he has not. Also I have to say a degree of resolve from the western world, especially the UK and US, that I did not expect.

However that resolve seems to be fraying to me, while the Israel / Palestine conflict has split attention and resources. Then there’s the Trump factor.

I think that at some point, perhaps this year but maybe next, Vlad is going to get to keep the territory he sits on and some diplomatic agreement will be reached re Ukraine’s NATO status - most likely them not joining it - and that will be the basis for an end to the war. In short an incomplete win for the Russians.

I think, or maybe hope, that Ukrainian heroism will mean it ends there at least for now, rather than his imperialist ambitions carrying on into the Baltics or Moldova or whatever.

I wouldn’t bet on it though. I mean I think he would continue if he could, but with Russia’s population crashing (one motive for building a greater Russia I suspect) there are only so many men of reproductive age he can afford to lose, and he’s lost hundreds of thousands according to some estimates.

OTOH Russia has got wealthy out of it even as it has bled the west further. The likes of Russia and China don’t give a fck about full belly concerns like the green agenda, and his manoeuvres have fair bumped the value of his oil and gas resources. I was reading that Russia are now producing millions of munitions daily while the west is running out, and probably have manufacture offshored to some degree as well I’d guess.

With all that in mind I think we’re not far from the end of the first major war that will establish a different world, but I don’t think it will be the last. I genuinely fear that at some point our sons or grandsons will be put in uniforms.

I hope I’m wrong about who emerges as victorious.

 

[egb_hibs]

Lord Haw Haw would be proud of that article G. Old loyalties die hard among communists it seems, even if the mainstream left have turned against Mother Russia. All the Cold War tropes present and correct.

 

[Archie]

I have noted a change in tone about reporting on the Ukraine. Initially it wascabout plucky and determined resisters. Now it's much more about the impact on the people, injuries to soldiers, the exhaustion of the army and so on. There's no doubt that is depressing people's view of their prospects. But I also wonder if it's also to keep the real suffering in sight and focus the minds of those, particularly in the US, who are threatening to cut funding?

 

[Archie]

It happened yesterday. I was a bit taken aback there was not a single word about this on the Ukraine thread.
In fact I decided after we stuffed Dundee to read through 72 pages to assert why this could be.
Vast coverage about Russian losses, on a daily basis with clappers giving thumbs up and general derision of stuff I put on because it was seen by pro Russian propaganda. Which is drivel.
In fact when I posted at the time MSM were saying that Russia were running out of weapons and that it was absolute nonsense, one Bouncer took umbrage and went in the huff, not to be seen for months. So be it.
Anyway what do folk think two years on where the present situation is and going. To kick things off I offer a position which I think is a measured analysis, which will be totally opposite what many think or want to think but may resonate with some.
Published five days before this anniversary of death and destruction.

The fall of Avdiivka: The beginning of the end | The Communist

Western imperialism is facing the prospect of a humiliating defeat in Ukraine. Support for Zelensky and his government is falling, both at home and abroad. Washington and NATO have scandalously pushed Ukrainians into fighting an unwinnable war.

communist.red

BIG G

One of the complaints in the article is that the west has consistently underestimated the strength of the Russian army. Almost all serious commentators thought the Ukraine would fall in days. Well here we are two years later. Still, I like to read all perspectives including one celebrating a Russian military victory. Tells me a lot about the authors. I now know that resisting invasion by a brutal state is in fact advancing western imperialism. Who knew?

 

[egb_hibs]

I have noted a change in tone about reporting on the Ukraine. Initially it wascabout plucky and determined resisters. Now it's much more about the impact on the people, injuries to soldiers, the exhaustion of the army and so on. There's no doubt that is depressing people's view of their prospects. But I also wonder if it's also to keep the real suffering in sight and focus the minds of those, particularly in the US, who are threatening to cut funding?

I agree with G to the extent we need to look beyond those media narratives to assess the situation. Russia has an overwhelming advantage in manpower, is economically profiting, and has implemented a war economy in a manner difficult for those opposing them to replicate.

Ukraine depends utterly on western technology to level the playing field and that’s running out physically before we get to the west’s spiritual reserves and their role on continued support. I gather from coverage that the rule of thumb is that an aggressor needs 3x the manpower to take territory vs the manpower of the holding defender. Putin has never deployed that afaik, but could do. Can Ukraine do it to take and hold territory occupied by the Russians ? I don’t think they can.

They are in some ways martyrs on behalf of Eastern Europe more generally, making it painful enough for the commies that their ambitions will not become more expansive. But I can’t really see any counter punch that recovers territories lost where they have Russian loyalist populations.

 

[egb_hibs]

One of the complaints in the article is that the west has consistently underestimated the strength of the Russian army. Almost all serious commentators thought the Ukraine would fall in days. Well here we are two years later. Still, I like to read all perspectives including one celebrating a Russian military victory. Tells me a lot about the authors. I now know that resisting invasion by a brutal state is in fact advancing western imperialism. Who knew?

It’s all there Archie, most tellingly an effort to undermine military strengthening in the face of future potential future Russian plans. Looks like the kind of stuff these fellas churned out for decades at the comintern’s direction.

 

[Archie]

I agree with G to the extent we need to look beyond those media narratives to assess the situation. Russia has an overwhelming advantage in manpower, is economically profiting, and has implemented a war economy in a manner difficult for those opposing them to replicate.

Ukraine depends utterly on western technology to level the playing field and that’s running out physically before we get to the west’s spiritual reserves and their role on continued support. I gather from coverage that the rule of thumb is that an aggressor needs 3x the manpower to take territory vs the manpower of the holding defender. Putin has never deployed that afaik, but could do. Can Ukraine do it to take and hold territory occupied by the Russians ? I don’t think they can.

They are in some ways martyrs on behalf of Eastern Europe more generally, making it painful enough for the commies that their ambitions will not become more expansive. But I can’t really see any counter punch that recovers territories lost where they have Russian loyalist populations.

I do think that there will be some hard to stomach decisions for Ukraine. If remains at a standstill there will become a point where the Ukrainian people just want it to stop. Could a deal over freezing the borders where they are be palatable to any side? It's easy for us to pontificate, but I wonder if a peace followed by resources to allow Ukraine to rebuild might be an option?

 

[egb_hibs]

I do think that there will be some hard to stomach decisions for Ukraine. If remains at a standstill there will become a point where the Ukrainian people just want it to stop. Could a deal over freezing the borders where they are be palatable to any side? It's easy for us to pontificate, but I wonder if a peace followed by resources to allow Ukraine to rebuild might be an option?

Yes I think this is broadly how it will happen. The territories he has occupied will be taken by Russia.

Ukraine will be positioned as some kind of geopolitical neutral ground, I’m guessing not allowed into NATO but with some kind of commitment from NATO to maintaining it in this status.

There will be remilitarisation of countries vulnerable to Russia, and possibly further west. And we go into a period of dormancy until Russia is strong enough to go again, which is hopefully a long time.

 

[StevieC]

Yes I think this is broadly how it will happen. The territories he has occupied will be taken by Russia.

Ukraine will be positioned as some kind of geopolitical neutral ground, I’m guessing not allowed into NATO but with some kind of commitment from NATO to maintaining it in this status.

There will be remilitarisation of countries vulnerable to Russia, and possibly further west. And we go into a period of dormancy until Russia is strong enough to go again, which is hopefully a long time.

That happened in 2014 .. and look at what happened in 2022.

If the west sits back again, and both allows and recognises Russia’s annexation of the territories of other countries then Russia will keep doing it.

It might not be Ukraine again, it might be Georgia, or Moldova, or the Baltics .. but it will happen because Russia has the weapons, the manpower and the political freedom to do it.

While you are taking about ceasefire, and surrendering Ukrainian lands to the invaders, ask yourself one simple question .. Why does Russia want these lands?

They had Donbas and Crimea annexed, why was it not enough? Why did they attempt to take Kyiv?

Russia, or at least those in charge, want to create a new Soviet Union under the name of the Russian Federation. Where do you think they will stop?

If you accept the current battle lines as a basis for peace, I can guarantee that the next stage will be an expansion across the south of Ukraine to Moldova, taking in the strategic port of Odessa.

 

[Archie]

That happened in 2014 .. and look at what happened in 2022.

If the west sits back again, and both allows and recognises Russia’s annexation of the territories of other countries then Russia will keep doing it.

It might not be Ukraine again, it might be Georgia, or Moldova, or the Baltics .. but it will happen because Russia has the weapons, the manpower and the political freedom to do it.

While you are taking about ceasefire, and surrendering Ukrainian lands to the invaders, ask yourself one simple question .. Why does Russia want these lands?

They had Donbas and Crimea annexed, why was it not enough? Why did they attempt to take Kyiv?

Russia, or at least those in charge, want to create a new Soviet Union under the name of the Russian Federation. Where do you think they will stop?

If you accept the current battle lines as a basis for peace, I can guarantee that the next stage will be an expansion across the south of Ukraine to Moldova, taking in the strategic port of Odessa.

I really appreciate your insight on this. My question is when does the Ukraine reach such a point of exhaustion that they just need it to stop? I'm not saying this would be in any way a just outcome, but unless I'm really misinformed I don't see prospects of a knock out blow to Russia. Nor do I see Russia making a breakthrough. So it just goes on and on. Have I got this right? I appreciate it's easy to pontificate from the comfort and safety of Edinburgh where I'm not putting my life on the line.

 

[egb_hibs]

That happened in 2014 .. and look at what happened in 2022.

If the west sits back again, and both allows and recognises Russia’s annexation of the territories of other countries then Russia will keep doing it.

It might not be Ukraine again, it might be Georgia, or Moldova, or the Baltics .. but it will happen because Russia has the weapons, the manpower and the political freedom to do it.

While you are taking about ceasefire, and surrendering Ukrainian lands to the invaders, ask yourself one simple question .. Why does Russia want these lands?

They had Donbas and Crimea annexed, why was it not enough? Why did they attempt to take Kyiv?

Russia, or at least those in charge, want to create a new Soviet Union under the name of the Russian Federation. Where do you think they will stop?

If you accept the current battle lines as a basis for peace, I can guarantee that the next stage will be an expansion across the south of Ukraine to Moldova, taking in the strategic port of Odessa.

I’m not suggesting this is what should happen, it’s what I think is likely to happen. Big difference.

I am entirely persuaded that Vlad will take as much of Eastern Europe as he can, and would then turn westward if he could. As I said, I hope Ukrainian heroism has thwarted this whatever happens now. But it will only be thwarting for a time, on that I agree with you.

I hope Ukraine can win back all their lands, it just doesn’t feel likely and I think the EU want out, while what a Trump US might do is anyone’s guess. Not much the UK can do on its own assuming Starmer maintains the same level of support as the tories.

 

[Smurf]

My thoughts are;

Russia will suffer as many deaths as it takes.
Under absolutely no circumstances will Russia give up land they've taken.
Ukraine won't agree to Russia retaining what they've taken.
Should NATO/the west put any boots on the ground all bets are off as far as Russia is concerned.
Ukraine will continue to get the backing of the West/NATO as long as the USA gives it.
Trump winning would change completely the narrative and probably increase Russian aggression to take more land until any negotiated agreement.
Even Biden winning will likely see Russia test how much they're prepared to back Ukraine with increased aggression.

 

[StevieC]

In response to a couple of points .. but please note that I am no military expert, and garner my information from many of the places others do as will (intermingled with views of many Ukrainian friends).

Now that Russia has had a year to build defences, you’re right it will be very difficult to shift them. For that to happen there needs to be continued military and financial support from the West. It may also require mobilisation in Ukraine, because the drawn out battles and losses are starting to affect many that are currently serving.
One of our Dnipro Kids (although older now) is serving as a medic on the front line and she has told her orphanage mother that she is struggling and tired of seeing dead bodies every day.

I touched on it in one of my posts above .. why was the Donbas not enough? My opinion is, and I stated this before the full invasion, “land link to Crimea”. If Ukraine can prevent that land link, the IMO Russia has lost. They don’t need to waste men and resources on the land between Kherson and Crimea, but if they can create a divide between Zaparozhia and Melitopol/Mariupol then they will have stopped the Russian objective (although this will prevent any peace plan acceptable to Russia).

In response to the suggestion of drawing a new border based on what Russia has taken so far, this might well happen. If Trump gets in I think it’s almost certain. Even now with the delays on military support from the U.S. getting stuck in Congress it’s a worry.
But if you accept this, as was accepted in 2014, it is giving in to the aggressor and they will take strength from this and start working on the next part of their global takeover. If you create the new border down the Dnepr river, there’s not that much land you need to take to get you to Moldova.
Ask yourself which countries have Russian speakers in them, which countries have shown sympathy to the Russian aggression. That is where the borders of the Russian Federation will end up if we abandon Ukraine. I’m pretty sure that Kaliningrad, and an invasion of Lithuania, will be sitting in a KGB file somewhere in the Kremlin.

 

[Ryan69]

It happened yesterday. I was a bit taken aback there was not a single word about this on the Ukraine thread.
In fact I decided after we stuffed Dundee to read through 72 pages to assert why this could be.
Vast coverage about Russian losses, on a daily basis with clappers giving thumbs up and general derision of stuff I put on because it was seen by pro Russian propaganda. Which is drivel.
In fact when I posted at the time MSM were saying that Russia were running out of weapons and that it was absolute nonsense, one Bouncer took umbrage and went in the huff, not to be seen for months. So be it.
Anyway what do folk think two years on where the present situation is and going. To kick things off I offer a position which I think is a measured analysis, which will be totally opposite what many think or want to think but may resonate with some.
Published five days before this anniversary of death and destruction.

The fall of Avdiivka: The beginning of the end | The Communist

Western imperialism is facing the prospect of a humiliating defeat in Ukraine. Support for Zelensky and his government is falling, both at home and abroad. Washington and NATO have scandalously pushed Ukrainians into fighting an unwinnable war.

communist.red

BIG G

There was more stated about the special military operation,NOT invasion(that would of lasted 24 hours) than there was about Memorial day. End of discussion.

What the hell has a territory dispute got Todo with us anyway?

Don't see special mentions for The US illegal invasion of how many Middle Eastern countries. Was there supposed tobe?

Or was that not the current thing.

Didn't see anything about the previous current thing Corona either? Maybe you could remind everyone about the anniversary of that...so not to forget that also.

Ukraine is a basket case place,that was voted the most corrupt in the world the year before Putin liberated the Russian speaking victims of genocide.

 

[emerald green]

There was more stated about the special military operation,NOT invasion(that would of lasted 24 hours) than there was about Memorial day. End of discussion.

What the hell has a territory dispute got Todo with us anyway?

Don't see special mentions for The US illegal invasion of how many Middle Eastern countries. Was there supposed tobe?

Or was that not the current thing.

Didn't see anything about the previous current thing Corona either? Maybe you could remind everyone about the anniversary of that...so not to forget that also.

Ukraine is a basket case place,that was voted the most corrupt in the world the year before Putin liberated the Russian speaking victims of genocide.

thanks ryan69

 

[egb_hibs]

There was more stated about the special military operation,NOT invasion(that would of lasted 24 hours) than there was about Memorial day. End of discussion.

What the hell has a territory dispute got Todo with us anyway?

Don't see special mentions for The US illegal invasion of how many Middle Eastern countries. Was there supposed tobe?

Or was that not the current thing.

Didn't see anything about the previous current thing Corona either? Maybe you could remind everyone about the anniversary of that...so not to forget that also.

Ukraine is a basket case place,that was voted the most corrupt in the world the year before Putin liberated the Russian speaking victims of genocide.

What is the difference between a ‘special military operation’ and an invasion? If we label what is happening in Gaza a ‘special military operation’ well it then become ok?

What do you mean by genocide?

Have you read the article in the OP, it’s actually right up your street.

 

[Archie]

There was more stated about the special military operation,NOT invasion(that would of lasted 24 hours) than there was about Memorial day. End of discussion.

What the hell has a territory dispute got Todo with us anyway?

Don't see special mentions for The US illegal invasion of how many Middle Eastern countries. Was there supposed tobe?

Or was that not the current thing.

Didn't see anything about the previous current thing Corona either? Maybe you could remind everyone about the anniversary of that...so not to forget that also.

Ukraine is a basket case place,that was voted the most corrupt in the world the year before Putin liberated the Russian speaking victims of genocide.

Do you think Ukrainians deserve to die?

 

[Archie]

Fascinating NYT article:

The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin

 

[StevieC]

Can I suggest those that are still peddling the “protect Russian speakers” have a watch of this

Mariupol Unlost Hope

 

[Findlayhibby]

One of the complaints in the article is that the west has consistently underestimated the strength of the Russian army. Almost all serious commentators thought the Ukraine would fall in days. Well here we are two years later. Still, I like to read all perspectives including one celebrating a Russian military victory. Tells me a lot about the authors. I now know that resisting invasion by a brutal state is in fact advancing western imperialism. Who knew?

The article isn’t celebrating a Russian victory far from it. It is saying it was inevitable.Nobody of Gordon or my ilk are celebrating anything.It would be celebrating Russian imperialism.Believe me neither Gordon or I are friends of Putin.But neither are we the friends of Zelenskyy or Biden or KimJongUn.

 

[Archie]

The article isn’t celebrating a Russian victory far from it. It is saying it was inevitable.Nobody of Gordon or my ilk are celebrating anything.It would be celebrating Russian imperialism.Believe me neither Gordon or I are friends of Putin.But neither are we the friends of Zelenskyy or Biden or KimJongUn.

I thought there was a rather triumphalist tone to the article - 'beginning of the end' 'humiliation for the West '. There was also a casual disregard for Navalny's murder.

Given that you are neither friends of Putin or Zelenskyy do you care who wins in the end?

 

[egb_hibs]

The article isn’t celebrating a Russian victory far from it. It is saying it was inevitable.Nobody of Gordon or my ilk are celebrating anything.It would be celebrating Russian imperialism.Believe me neither Gordon or I are friends of Putin.But neither are we the friends of Zelenskyy or Biden or KimJongUn.

Do you believe we all wind up at the back? It argues that arming in the face of a Russian threat is just about lining the pockets of the arms industry (essentially the approach Soviet fifth columnists took with CND), it hints more broadly that war is about capitalist profiteering - despite only Russia profiting here, it tramples all over the corpse of Alexei Navalny and labels him as a ‘bourgeois liberal’ actor. It even drags in the ‘Zionists’.

It’s all about discrediting any efforts to oppose Putin under various flags of convenience. Basic Comintern playbook stuff that guys like this were churning out for the entire history of the USSR.

 

[1875]

Can I suggest those that are still peddling the “protect Russian speakers” have a watch of this

Mariupol Unlost Hope

How could anyone that watches this not understand?

 

[Findlayhibby]

I thought there was a rather triumphalist tone to the article - 'beginning of the end' 'humiliation for the West '. There was also a casual disregard for Navalny's murder.

Given that you are neither friends of Putin or Zelenskyy do you care who wins in the end?

I want the Ukrainian workers to win in the end

 

[Findlayhibby]

I also want the Russian workers to overthrow Putin.

 

[egb_hibs]

I also want the Russian workers to overthrow Putin.

According to an article Big G posted, actually existing resistance to Putin in Russia, ie Navalny, was ‘bourgeois liberalism’

 

[gun ainm]

Do you believe we all wind up at the back? It argues that arming in the face of a Russian threat is just about lining the pockets of the arms industry (essentially the approach Soviet fifth columnists took with CND), it hints more broadly that war is about capitalist profiteering - despite only Russia profiting here, it tramples all over the corpse of Alexei Navalny and labels him as a ‘bourgeois liberal’ actor. It even drags in the ‘Zionists’.

It’s all about discrediting any efforts to oppose Putin under various flags of convenience. Basic Comintern playbook stuff that guys like this were churning out for the entire history of the USSR.

It's not only Russia that is profiting though is it? It's naive imo to think the west is purely motivated by solidarity with the Ukrainians? That isn't to equate us with Putin

 

[egb_hibs]

It's not only Russia that is profiting though is it? It's naive imo to think the west is purely motivated by solidarity with the Ukrainians? That isn't to equate us with Putin

Yeah but there’s a fallacious equation here that is repeated relentlessly. The US arms industry is ~1% of GDP. Do you really think the US keeps brutalising its economy for that? Wouldn’t it be easier to invest in the smallest sector listed in its top ten gdp contributors which is 4x rhe size and doesn’t fck everyone else by doing so?

This is the difference between communism and its derivatives and free market societies tbh. It’s mental that those who see the value in separating Church and State want to merge State and Economy, and astronomically more dangerous combo.

 

[gun ainm]

Yeah but there’s a fallacious equation here that is repeated relentlessly. The US arms industry is ~1% of GDP. Do you really think the US keeps brutalising its economy for that? Wouldn’t it be easier to invest in the smallest sector listed in its top ten gdp contributors which is 4x rhe size and doesn’t fck everyone else by doing so?

This is the difference between communism and its derivatives and free market societies tbh. It’s mental that those who see the value in separating Church and State want to merge State and Economy, and astronomically more dangerous combo.

Is the economy brutalised? By standard metrics it appears to be doing well. That's not to say there's not a cost just that it isn't being captured in the economic barometer.

 

[egb_hibs]

Is the economy brutalised? By standard metrics it appears to be doing well. That's not to say there's not a cost just that it isn't being captured in the economic barometer.

Have you looked at America’s debt lately, or the reasons for its gdp growth which sure af ain’t anything to do with wars.