SNP ahead of Labour By 3%.

[Smurf]

According to the excellent politicialbetting site.

Interesting times as on the one hand the SNP tactic is to point the finger at Labour for their unholy alliance in Better Together with the Tories letting it be known they'll do no deal with the Tories. Admirable position from a party quite content to do a deal with the Tories to govern in Holyrood 2007-2011...

Be interesting to see how things unfold in the next six months. No doubt many Yes supporters have been politicised and have joined the SNP but I suspect the majority of Yes and No just want to see the governments of Westminster and Holyrood just getting on with the job, addressing their priorities and concerns.

 

[Kenny]

when does jim murphy get the gig - i imagine things will hot up then.

if snp top 20 seats they have done fantastically well, anything less than 40 will be called a disaster by the MSM but that isn't true. I know a lot of Yes folk that go back to voting labour "to not let the tories in"? - old habits die hard.

some labour majorities are massive 50% and such like but some Labour folk should have an eye on the jobs page on the jobs pages in the scotsman.

roll on May.

 

[southfieldhibby]

John Curtice thinks its 46% SNP 24% Labour.

 

[Jack]

According to the excellent politicialbetting site.

Interesting times as on the one hand the SNP tactic is to point the finger at Labour for their unholy alliance in Better Together with the Tories letting it be known they'll do no deal with the Tories. ***** Admirable position from a party quite content to do a deal with the Tories to govern in Holyrood 2007-2011... *****

Be interesting to see how things unfold in the next six months. No doubt many Yes supporters have been politicised and have joined the SNP but I suspect the majority of Yes and No just want to see the governments of Westminster and Holyrood just getting on with the job, addressing their priorities and concerns.

Bloody hell Smurf. SNP were in a minority government, they were making deals with all parties.

What really worked for them in that period was they engaged really well with the stakeholders, the folk at the coalface to work on policies that would work - building in common sense [most of the time] and trust. From there it was difficult for any opposition party to disagree.

I was working with the NHS at the time. The difference between 2006 and 2007 was like night and day!

 

[Shades]

Here is a poll of polls. Labour on approx. 29% SNP on approx. 43%.

An emphatic lead.

 

[LunaCWsauzee]

Having seen many polls I wonder where this 3% lead is coming from, most polls are showing a lead of around 15% for the SNP with an average of 35 or so seats.

Some of the majorities that Labour have however are huge, and with their lurch to the right they can most certainly rely on tactical voting from Tory voters to see them home in some seats.

The SNP need to concentrate on keeping above that key 40% that makes seats start to fall under the FPTP system.

 

[Smurf]

But Sturgeons party would be one short on seats

Following my post yesterday about the woeful lack of polling data from what could be the most critical area of all at GE15, Scotland, a PBer contacted me to point out that Populus has resumed its excellent practice of issuing a full monthly data analysis from the eight or nine online surveys carried out in the previous month.

Whats great about this is that you have a very large sample which gives us sub samples based on enough responses so that you can have some confidence in the output. This is not, however, a proper poll and all the reservations about sub samples remain. It is the best thats available at the moment.

The aggregated GE15 responses for Scotland alone are shown in the chart and as can be seen the SNP is ahead. But the margin, 3%, is miniscule compared with what other forms were reporting a few weeks ago.

Unfortunately there is no comparative Populus data available for October to allow us to make comparisons.

You should note that Populus does tend to have the highest aggregate CON-LAB shares of all the pollsters and, consequentially, smaller shares for other parties which could impact on the SNP.

Whatever the red team will be delighted by this data and the Scottish seat calculations that put them on 28 MPs 13 fewer than their current contingent from north of the border.

If this Populus data is on the right lines then the Labour chances of becoming top party nationally are a bit higher.

Im told that we should see the December Scottish poll from Survation before Christmas which should allow us to track trends.

 

[Jack]

But Sturgeons party would be one short on seats

Following my post yesterday about the woeful lack of polling data from what could be the most critical area of all at GE15, Scotland, a PBer contacted me to point out that Populus has resumed its excellent practice of issuing a full monthly data analysis from the eight or nine online surveys carried out in the previous month.

Whats great about this is that you have a very large sample which gives us sub samples based on enough responses so that you can have some confidence in the output. This is not, however, a proper poll and all the reservations about sub samples remain. It is the best thats available at the moment.

The aggregated GE15 responses for Scotland alone are shown in the chart and as can be seen the SNP is ahead. But the margin, 3%, is miniscule compared with what other forms were reporting a few weeks ago.

Unfortunately there is no comparative Populus data available for October to allow us to make comparisons.

You should note that Populus does tend to have the highest aggregate CON-LAB shares of all the pollsters and, consequentially, smaller shares for other parties which could impact on the SNP.

Whatever the red team will be delighted by this data and the Scottish seat calculations that put them on 28 MPs 13 fewer than their current contingent from north of the border.

If this Populus data is on the right lines then the Labour chances of becoming top party nationally are a bit higher.

Im told that we should see the December Scottish poll from Survation before Christmas which should allow us to track trends.

3%, 5% who's counting?

Maybe the not SNP parties should shut the fuck up and just give in.

 

[Shades]

But Sturgeons party would be one short on seats

Following my post yesterday about the woeful lack of polling data from what could be the most critical area of all at GE15, Scotland, a PBer contacted me to point out that Populus has resumed its excellent practice of issuing a full monthly data analysis from the eight or nine online surveys carried out in the previous month.

Whats great about this is that you have a very large sample which gives us sub samples based on enough responses so that you can have some confidence in the output. This is not, however, a proper poll and all the reservations about sub samples remain. It is the best thats available at the moment.

The aggregated GE15 responses for Scotland alone are shown in the chart and as can be seen the SNP is ahead. But the margin, 3%, is miniscule compared with what other forms were reporting a few weeks ago.

Unfortunately there is no comparative Populus data available for October to allow us to make comparisons.

You should note that Populus does tend to have the highest aggregate CON-LAB shares of all the pollsters and, consequentially, smaller shares for other parties which could impact on the SNP.

Whatever the red team will be delighted by this data and the Scottish seat calculations that put them on 28 MPs 13 fewer than their current contingent from north of the border.

If this Populus data is on the right lines then the Labour chances of becoming top party nationally are a bit higher.

Im told that we should see the December Scottish poll from Survation before Christmas which should allow us to track trends.

Is it not the done thing to indicate that the text above is a copy and paste from the politicalbetting blog?

Here's a critique of it by the political blogger James Kelly (who is pro-independence);

Piffle pertaining to Populus

Even if it wasn't for my past history at Political Betting, I would have sighed heavily at the latest post from Mike Smithson, which makes a big drama out of the fact that Labour are "only" 3% behind the SNP in a published aggregate of Populus subsamples from the month of November -

SNP 35%
Labour 32%
Conservatives 17%
Liberal Democrats 9%
UKIP 4%
Greens 2%

This of course only tells us what we already knew, because the individual Populus subsamples were all published and were freely available for anyone to tot up (but only if that person could "be arsed", of course).

Smithson does add a couple of half-hearted caveats to the figures, but still comes to the silly conclusion that Labour "will be delighted". As we've been saying for weeks, Populus stick out like a sore thumb as the one and only pollster that has produced subsamples since the referendum putting the SNP behind Labour - and they haven't just done it once, but several times. By contrast, every other pollster has put the SNP ahead in every single post-referendum subsample to date - and that includes YouGov, who produce at least five subsamples per week. If you aggregated subsamples from every firm other than Populus, or even if you aggregated subsamples from every firm including Populus, you'd see a very handsome SNP lead - as this blog's Poll of Polls demonstrates.

There's no mystery about why Populus are different - they downweight the SNP much more severely than anyone else does, based on target figures for party identification from way back in 2010, when of course the SNP had much less core support.

In other words, the above figures are a red herring. Nothing to see here.

On a vaguely related point of pedantry, Smithson keeps saying that there have only been three full-scale Scottish polls since the week of the referendum. That's quite simply wrong, but naturally I haven't been able to correct him because of my random lifetime banning from his site. There have in fact been six full-scale Scottish polls since September 18th - two from Survation, two from Panelbase, one from Ipsos-Mori and one from YouGov. Even if you discount the first Survation poll because it was conducted immediately after the referendum, that still leaves five.

 

[Smurf]

3%, 5% who's counting?

Maybe the not SNP parties should shut the $#@! up and just give in.

Yeah.

- - - Updated - - -

Is it not the done thing to indicate that the text above is a copy and paste from the politicalbetting blog?

Here's a critique of it by the political blogger James Kelly (who is pro-independence);

Piffle pertaining to Populus

Even if it wasn't for my past history at Political Betting, I would have sighed heavily at the latest post from Mike Smithson, which makes a big drama out of the fact that Labour are "only" 3% behind the SNP in a published aggregate of Populus subsamples from the month of November -

SNP 35%
Labour 32%
Conservatives 17%
Liberal Democrats 9%
UKIP 4%
Greens 2%

This of course only tells us what we already knew, because the individual Populus subsamples were all published and were freely available for anyone to tot up (but only if that person could "be arsed", of course).

Smithson does add a couple of half-hearted caveats to the figures, but still comes to the silly conclusion that Labour "will be delighted". As we've been saying for weeks, Populus stick out like a sore thumb as the one and only pollster that has produced subsamples since the referendum putting the SNP behind Labour - and they haven't just done it once, but several times. By contrast, every other pollster has put the SNP ahead in every single post-referendum subsample to date - and that includes YouGov, who produce at least five subsamples per week. If you aggregated subsamples from every firm other than Populus, or even if you aggregated subsamples from every firm including Populus, you'd see a very handsome SNP lead - as this blog's Poll of Polls demonstrates.

There's no mystery about why Populus are different - they downweight the SNP much more severely than anyone else does, based on target figures for party identification from way back in 2010, when of course the SNP had much less core support.

In other words, the above figures are a red herring. Nothing to see here.

On a vaguely related point of pedantry, Smithson keeps saying that there have only been three full-scale Scottish polls since the week of the referendum. That's quite simply wrong, but naturally I haven't been able to correct him because of my random lifetime banning from his site. There have in fact been six full-scale Scottish polls since September 18th - two from Survation, two from Panelbase, one from Ipsos-Mori and one from YouGov. Even if you discount the first Survation poll because it was conducted immediately after the referendum, that still leaves five.

Good post.