North Korea

[Smurf]

Playing a very dangerous game. Reading the respected BBC journalist world affairs editor John Simpson suggesting that they are maybe going to give Trump a wee opportunity to unite the USA.

North Korea must know Trump might trigger?

China role pivotal I'd imagine?

 

[bigmanandy]

Sanctions, sanctions and more sanctions is all that'll happen, and they don't care.

 

[Smurf]

Sanctions, sanctions and more sanctions is all that'll happen, and they don't care.

I think something will happen on the watch of Trump.

 

[hibadelic]

I think something will happen on the watch of Trump.

Provided the watch of Trump doesn't slip off the tiny hands of Trump.

I do think you have a point here, K. It's getting close to the point where some action will have to be taken, but what options are available?

 

[Smurf]

Provided the watch of Trump doesn't slip off the tiny hands of Trump.

I do think you have a point here, K. It's getting close to the point where some action will have to be taken, but what options are available?

Putting aside that he's obviously not sane his presidency has got off to a terrible start. His tweets about Obama bugging him are unprecedented. It appears to be completely about diversion. But what I fear he really needs to shift attention and get some unity is a war. As you say action looks likely to need to be taken so it wouldn't be hugely unpopular at home. His options though are surely limited and retaliation from North Korea certain.

 

[Beagle]

I think that once NK has the capability to hit the US with a ballistic missile, they will invade South Korea with the threat that any intervention on the part of the US will bring a nuclear strike. It isn't complicated.

 

[Smurf]

I think that once NK has the capability to hit the US with a ballistic missile, they will invade South Korea with the threat that any intervention on the part of the US will bring a nuclear strike. It isn't complicated.

Except there's no way the US will let that happen.

There's all kinds of shit going on at the moment in the seas off China....

 

[hibadelic]

Putting aside that he's obviously not sane his presidency has got off to a terrible start. His tweets about Obama bugging him are unprecedented. It appears to be completely about diversion. But what I fear he really needs to shift attention and get some unity is a war. As you say action looks likely to need to be taken so it wouldn't be hugely unpopular at home. His options though are surely limited and retaliation from North Korea certain.

You're suggesting invading N. Korea as an option? I'm sure there are easier targets if it's just a way of building unity at home. Even a bam like Trump would surely choose to invade a country that isn't protected by nuclear weapons and China.

How do you feel the nuclear weapons as a deterrent argument holds up in this instance?

 

[Hibee Kev]

I think that once NK has the capability to hit the US with a ballistic missile, they will invade South Korea with the threat that any intervention on the part of the US will bring a nuclear strike. It isn't complicated.

Bloody hope not, I'm back off out there this weekend! :shock:

 

[Smurf]

You're suggesting invading N. Korea as an option? I'm sure there are easier targets if it's just a way of building unity at home. Even a bam like Trump would surely choose to invade a country that isn't protected by nuclear weapons and China.

How do you feel the nuclear weapons as a deterrent argument holds up in this instance?

Not so sure about invading. That would be madness and suicidal but this is Trump....

I think there's more likely to be military strikes.

I think the deterrent argument holds up well.... Up against such a lunatic as Trump it's just as well the North Koreans have them...

 

[Beagle]

Except there's no way the US will let that happen.

They've failed to do anything of note to stop them thus far. NK appear to be single minded in their approach, manufacture a viable nuclear warhead and ballistic missile system that can hit the US west coast (LA & San Fran etc), with the threat that if the US dares to get involved then they'll launch. Once that is in place, they'll invade the South.
The difference between NK and any other country is that their leaders really don't give a fuck about their population getting nuked in retaliation. That's why the US will be backed into a corner and will have to back down.
I don't think it's sabre rattling on NK's part to stick two fingers up to America, I think the plan all along, like a game of Chess, is to take over and destroy SK but get the 'or else' in place first.
The only people capable of stopping it going seriously tits up are the Chinese and even they are concerned that NK is almost beyond holding back any longer.

 

[hibadelic]

They've failed to do anything of note to stop them thus far. NK appear to be single minded in their approach, manufacture a viable nuclear warhead and ballistic missile system that can hit the US west coast (LA & San Fran etc), with the threat that if the US dares to get involved then they'll launch. Once that is in place, they'll invade the South.
The difference between NK and any other country is that their leaders really don't give a $#@! about their population getting nuked in retaliation. That's why the US will be backed into a corner and will have to back down.
I don't think it's sabre rattling on NK's part to stick two fingers up to America, I think the plan all along, like a game of Chess, is to take over and destroy SK but get the 'or else' in place first.
The only people capable of stopping it going seriously tits up are the Chinese and even they are concerned that NK is almost beyond holding back any longer.

There's some chat that the US has been messing up recent NK missile tests using "the cyber" (copyright Trump).

I'm not sure that there's much evidence the NK leaders don't care about getting nuked in retaliation. I'd guess they're as concerned with self preservation as everyone else.

 

[hibadelic]

Not so sure about invading. That would be madness and suicidal but this is Trump....

I think there's more likely to be military strikes.

I think the deterrent argument holds up well.... Up against such a lunatic as Trump it's just as well the North Koreans have them...

Haha, good answer although not really consistent with possible military strikes by the US.

 

[southfieldhibby]

There's some chat that the US has been messing up recent NK missile tests using "the cyber" (copyright Trump).

I'm not sure that there's much evidence the NK leaders don't care about getting nuked in retaliation. I'd guess they're as concerned with self preservation as everyone else.

This kind of thing has almost been worth him winning the election. Like his description of uranium. Absolute genius.

 

[Smurf]

Haha, good answer although not really consistent with possible military strikes by the US.

I think [MENTION=4709]Beagle[/MENTION] posts something interesting but I do think Trump will take action....

 

[Beagle]

I think [MENTION=4709]Beagle[/MENTION] posts something interesting but I do think Trump will take action....

The hawks in his military will be hoaching to go all 'Top Gun' I imagine. If Trump does give the word, he'll give NK plenty advance warning by spraffing all over Twitter anyway

 

[GORDONSMITH7]

I think [MENTION=4709]Beagle[/MENTION] posts something interesting but I do think Trump will take action....

No chance. The firing of rockets by North Korea is having the effect on Southern Koreans as....... here they go again.They live cheek by jowl and kind of expect all this shite. All the threats this tiny dictatorship, whilst apparently, folk are starving, does not amount to a hill of beans. To think that this Stalinist bureaucracy can go on forever without protest is fanciful. The punters in North Korea or anywhere else are not puppets forever. The conditions for the vast majority are brutal. Compare and contract with the sea of military fuckers, with yon hats, at rallies, assemblies etc. It will be challenged but not without a massive struggle,whether in a Stalinist enclave or indeed Capitalist countries where the status quo has been challenged.. Intervention by outside forces should be looked at with derision ....Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, et al. My only consolation is that Trump is full of wind and pish and hopefully his advisors point out that China, whom he seems to be gunning for, is North Korea's only major amigo. Do not loose any sleep about you and yours being liquidized in any nuclear holocaust.

BIG G

 

[Beagle]

The population of NK is poor and downtrodden and like Big G says there is a sea of military types and a huge army. The dear leader is revered as a God by the people and he would have no second thoughts about exterminating anyone and their granny who would oppose his regime.
Make no mistake, China has a hold of the leash but their grip is slackening where there will come a point that their 'pet' bampot will sling them a deefy. Once NK gets the capability to launch a viable ICBM the genie is well and truly out the Chinese bottle.

 

[HenryLB]

It might be correct to say the NK leadership don't care about lots of their population being killed, but they I assume they care about themselves. And no people = no Mercedes limousines for them. In a genuine nuclear standoff why would they launch if it would mean their country being effectively wiped out?

 

[GORDONSMITH7]

It might be correct to say the NK leadership don't care about lots of their population being killed, but they I assume they care about themselves. And no people = no Mercedes limousines for them. In a genuine nuclear standoff why would they launch if it would mean their country being effectively wiped out?

A rather good argument for non renewal of Trident or the proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in general Henry.

BIG G

 

[emerald green]

No chance. The firing of rockets by North Korea is having the effect on Southern Koreans as....... here they go again.They live cheek by jowl and kind of expect all this shite. All the threats this tiny dictatorship, whilst apparently, folk are starving, does not amount to a hill of beans. To think that this Stalinist bureaucracy can go on forever without protest is fanciful. The punters in North Korea or anywhere else are not puppets forever. The conditions for the vast majority are brutal. Compare and contract with the sea of military fuckers, with yon hats, at rallies, assemblies etc. It will be challenged but not without a massive struggle,whether in a Stalinist enclave or indeed Capitalist countries where the status quo has been challenged.. Intervention by outside forces should be looked at with derision ....Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, et al. My only consolation is that Trump is full of wind and pish and hopefully his advisors point out that China, whom he seems to be gunning for, is North Korea's only major amigo. Do not loose any sleep about you and yours being liquidized in any nuclear holocaust.

BIG G

ahh....common sense.

 

[egb_hibs]

Tend to agree with Big G that NK won't be nuking us anytime soon. I'm not so sure on the optimistic forecast for North Koreans themselves. Stalin wasn't overthrown by the people; totalitarian despots rarely, if ever, are. Revolutions happens when the ruling regimes soften up a bit and loose their appetite for mass murder. Ole Kim looks like a man of prodigious appetites.

 

[GORDONSMITH7]

Tend to agree with Big G that NK won't be nuking us anytime soon. I'm not so sure on the optimistic forecast for North Koreans themselves. Stalin wasn't overthrown by the people; totalitarian despots rarely, if ever, are. Revolutions happens when the ruling regimes soften up a bit and loose their appetite for mass murder. Ole Kim looks like a man of prodigious appetites.

Romania's Nicolae Ceaușescu, Czechoslovakia's Gustáv Husákm, Bulgaria's Todor Zhivkov and East Germany's Erich Honecker all hard line Stalinists, told Gorbachev to stick glasnost and perestroika up his arse and refused any reforms/ liberalisation. At the very same time growing numbers of workers in these countries were demonstrating in the streets and participating in strikes with hundreds being rounded up by secret police, though unable to prevent those regimes being overthrown.

BIG G

 

[egb_hibs]

Romania's Nicolae Ceaușescu, Czechoslovakia's Gustáv Husákm, Bulgaria's Todor Zhivkov and East Germany's Erich Honecker all hard line Stalinists, told Gorbachev to stick glasnost and perestroika up his arse and refused any reforms/ liberalisation. At the very same time growing numbers of workers in these countries were demonstrating in the streets and participating in strikes with hundreds being rounded up by secret police, though unable to prevent those regimes being overthrown.

BIG G

That's a fair comeback though I'd argue that without soviet backing they'd be unable to slaughter people on a mass scale, and while I'm not an expert Ceausescu is the only one that I'm aware of that ever did, in the post Stalin era anyway (stand to be corrected on that).

Compare and contrast with China which endured while the European regimes fell apart - quite happy to bulldoze the students at Tiananmen at roughly the same time.

Anyway I hope you are right, just unaware of happy precedents. Finally none of this is to take away from the heroism of the various revolutions against these regimes - individuals certainly faced death or impisonment, it's just that the massive preemptive purges of stalins ussr or NK were not in place to stop those resistance movements forming. It's the same with non communist examples - the likes of Gandhi and Nelson Mandela and their colleagues individually heroic (and in Mandela's case suggered a great deal) but they wouldn't have got far in regimes with the will and power to just kill them and anyone they were close to, whether those people were politically involved or not.

 

[HenryLB]

A rather good argument for non renewal of Trident or the proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in general Henry.

BIG G

In this case the nukes paralyse them into inaction, which is kind of the idea of the definition of deterrence, isn't it?

Without the threat of nuclear attack on both sides North Korea would be more likely to attack the South, surely? Whereas here the bombs haven't been used but - if you believe this is a realistic description of events - they've done their job by preventing a war.