Latest GERS

[egb_hibs]

A shitshow. Scotland's deficit position as measured by GERS deteriorating at nearly 5x the UK rate. A dodo within a dinosaur.

Tax the rich doesn't seem to be going swimmingly: "Scotland’s share of income tax (6.8%) is also relatively low. In part, this reflects the increasingly progressive nature of income tax, following the introduction of the additional rate of income tax and increases in the personal allowance."

A quick comparison via Google suggests Scotland would have the worst deficit in Europe, nearly 25% higher than Romania's (the current worst).

Government expenditure & revenue Scotland 2024-25

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) is an Accredited Official Statistics publication. It estimates the revenue raised in Scotland and the cost of public services provided for Scotland.

www.gov.scot

 

[Jack]

Queue the annual discussion where Scotland is too wee, too poor Vs it bares no indication of how Scotland could be run as an independent country.

I'm quite sure if Scotland was draining the UK coffers to such an extent the torys would have jettisoned us years ago and Rachel Reeves would now be leading the line demanding an independence referendum.

 

[egb_hibs]

Queue the annual discussion where Scotland is too wee, too poor Vs it bares no indication of how Scotland could be run as an independent country.

I'm quite sure if Scotland was draining the UK coffers to such an extent the torys would have jettisoned us years ago and Rachel Reeves would now be leading the line demanding an independence referendum.

A better discussion would be how Scotland modernises its economy and politics. There is plenty that could be done within the UK.

Show is much better than tell in convincing those not voting from the heart, and showing we are held back rather propped up is the way to do it imo. As Scottish demographics rapidly and radically change this will be even more important. Right now, why on earth would anyone believe what the Scottish government say, when its so out of whack with their record?

I suppose a lot of this comes down to how serious the government, and we, are about independence. Not very, is how it looks tbh.

The second paragraph is just nonsense: thats not how any of them think, or indeed anyone south of the border.

 

[Jack]

A better discussion would be how Scotland modernises its economy and politics. There is plenty that could be done within the UK.

Show is much better than tell in convincing those not voting from the heart, and showing we are held back rather propped up is the way to do it imo. As Scottish demographics rapidly and radically change this will be even more important. Right now, why on earth would anyone believe what the Scottish government say, when its so out of whack with their record?

I suppose a lot of this comes down to how serious the government, and we, are about independence. Not very, is how it looks tbh.

The second paragraph is just nonsense: thats not how any of them think, or indeed anyone south of the border.

Like I said. Same shite, different year!

 

[egb_hibs]

Like I said. Same shite, different year!

Some of us are serious about indy, some of us aren't

 

[connerg]

increases in the personal allowance."

Personal Allowance has not risen since 2020 and is frozen until 2028.

 

[egb_hibs]

Personal Allowance has not risen since 2020 and is frozen until 2028.

I'm quoting the government! I think what they are trying to say is Scotland's income tax take is low generally because of these things, rather than this year specifically.

 

[connerg]

How much, if any, of Scotland's Income Tax or VAT, is kept by Holyrood?

 

[egb_hibs]

How much, if any, of Scotland's Income Tax or VAT, is kept by Holyrood?

Dunno how the accounting works but the big picture is we get more to spend than we raise; dramatically so according to this.

 

[connerg]

If that is the case, then Westminster will be wanting rid of us soon. Great, no need for Indy Ref II.

 

[egb_hibs]

If that is the case, then Westminster will be wanting rid of us soon. Great, no need for Indy Ref II.

No it won't. It has been like this for a long long time, possibly always i dunno. Nobody down there thinks like that, to be blunt its Scottish projection / fantasy. Apart from anything else we are no different to poorer parts of england in this regard

 

[connerg]

If it's been like that for a long long time, that makes me think that Scotland raises more then it receive's.
Anybody can manipulate numbers and figures to support their arguement. Especially Government employed Statisticians.

 

[egb_hibs]

If it's been like that for a long long time, that makes me think that Scotland raises more then it receive's.
Anybody can manipulate numbers and figures to support their argument. Especially Government employed Statisticians.

So the SNP controlled Scottish government is rigging data to support the union? I'm not sure I buy that. And nor will most of the electorate. The money markets certainly arent going to be fooled by something so wild.

Much of England will be like this and Wales and NI probably worse. Sadly it is highly highly unlikely that Scotland is in surplus and both the Scottish and Westminster governments pretending otherwise. Look around, its not a surprise. We have high levels of social problems that require expenditure, a higher than UK dependence on state employment which requires expenditure, and low levels of things that generate revenue.

 

[connerg]

Nothing will surprise me at what Politicians will do, regardless of which Party they belong too. Every pound the Government spend on wages, they get that back in some form.
So good old Westminster is subsidising Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland? What a bunch of thoroughly decent chaps.

 

[egb_hibs]

Nothing will surprise me at what Politicians will do, regardless of which Party they belong too. Every pound the Government spend on wages, they get that back in some form.

Not in the form that matters, when expenditure exceeds revenue. You get something back in a form when you buy a beer, book or haircut. But if you dont have money for them, you wont be getting them.

Its not really any different with things you buy via your tax. Except tax has long failed to cover them, so the government borrow just as you or I might do. But that is reaching its limit at UK level, and an independent Scotland would struggle to borrow below loanshark rates with an eastern European deficit and without the UK's scale. So its important, indeed crucial.

So good old Westminster is subsidising Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland? What a bunch of thoroughly decent chaps.

Yes.

Though what that really means is the English taxpayer is. And what that really means is largely London, which along with Edinburgh, and a few other places, is where the UK takes in more than it pays out. But Edinburgh doesnt make enough to cover the Scottish position so the english do.

You can disbelieve it because it is displeasing, but that wont be the case with our prospective lenders nor with sufficient numbers of people who would have to vote for independence.

 

[connerg]

Recently, Edinburgh's GDP was greater than London for the first time ever. Who is subsidising who?

 

[egb_hibs]

Recently, Edinburgh's GDP was greater than London for the first time ever. Who is subsidising who?

No it didn't. London's GDP is around 17x the size of Edinburgh's. We narrowly exceeded their GDP per capita, that is to say GDP divided by number of citizens.

So Edinburgh makes slightly more per head of population now London is flooded with cheap migrant Labour - a version of the wider english story. But there is still much, much more London money going into the exchequer.

And GDP is not wholly adequate here anyway, its tax revenue generated, though they are related. Londoners generate way way more tax revenue per head than Scots (not seen an Edinburgh figure) - 24.6k vs 14.6k in 2023.

Only London and the south east were in surplus (ie took in more than they spent) that year, though again Edinburgh is not broken out of the regional view.

Country and regional public sector finances, UK - Office for National Statistics

Public sector revenue, expenditure and net fiscal balance on a country and regional basis.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[connerg]

Edinburgh makes slightly more per head of population

Thank you.

 

[egb_hibs]

Thank you.

You're welcome, but it doesn't mean that Scotland is other than subsidised by England and therefore London.

Hopefully that's all a bit clearer now

 

[Jack]

You're welcome, but it doesn't mean that Scotland is other than subsidised by England and therefore London.

Hopefully that's all a bit clearer now

Of course that's only true on the publicly available figures. Westminster has always been pretty coy about North Sea oil revenues, for example, even before GERS.

As alluded to previously. If Scotland was a burden Westminster would have got shot of us long before now.

Just why do you think these mercenary bastards won't let us go?

 

[egb_hibs]

Of course that's only true on the publicly available figures. Westminster has always been pretty coy about North Sea oil revenues, for example, even before GERS.

Oil and gas is one of the most highly scrutinised industries there is, from an investment point of view. I very much doubt government figures could be very wide of the mark without it being shot down pretty much instantly. It's also an industry that has had its day in the UK thanks to the policies of governments at both HR and WM.

As alluded to previously. If Scotland was a burden Westminster would have got shot of us long before now.

Just why do you think these mercenary bastards won't let us go?

I think its a completely misconceived question. I dont think anyone actually shares this logic outside nationalist circles. From a UK pov its just one other region that runs at a loss. In that respect we are behind Wales, NI and swathes of England. I daresay there are some in London who would like it to be rich city state, but outside that and from this point of view, Scotland is just another region that runs at a loss as they pretty much all do. It only becomes a discussion point in the context of independence where we would be without regional subsidies and would need to adjust accordingly.

Even NI which I daresay more than a few politicians would like to be shot of for entirely different reasons (albeit now much reduced), is going nowhere unless the Irish of north and south want it.

Otoh there are tonnes of reasons they'd want scotland to stay in the UK ranging from sentiment to brass tacks like security.

 

[Hattie]

No it won't. It has been like this for a long long time, possibly always i dunno. Nobody down there thinks like that, to be blunt its Scottish projection / fantasy. Apart from anything else we are no different to poorer parts of england in this regard

Really?
I wasn’t even going to look at this thread, as it’s a complete waste of time.
It’s a nonsensical impossibility to regard this as even remotely to an indy Scotland.
How on this planet of fucked-upness can anyone relate to this when it is irelevant of what is or what isn’t run by a devolved Scottish Parliament.
Westminster control our finances full stop.
We have to choose what to do with it pocket money.
But then Westminster can stop over rule us on that as has actually happened.
Until the day Scotland has Indy this push will never have any bearing on it.
So many things that are Scottish come under English, like every export through Dover…
Believing this pish is like believing Westminster really are desperate to better together for the whole uk.
If we were deniably on the English and subsidised higher by them. Not a cat chance in hell they would’ve went to the lengths they did to keep us in the the union..
absolute nonsense.
And as i didn’t want to read this thread because i knew it would be like this, i am going to throw my toys out the pram and refuse to look at it again, so there

 

[egb_hibs]

Really?
I wasn’t even going to look at this thread, as it’s a complete waste of time.
It’s a nonsensical impossibility to regard this as even remotely to an indy Scotland.
How on this planet of fucked-upness can anyone relate to this when it is irelevant of what is or what isn’t run by a devolved Scottish Parliament.
Westminster control our finances full stop.
We have to choose what to do with it pocket money.
But then Westminster can stop over rule us on that as has actually happened.
Until the day Scotland has Indy this push will never have any bearing on it.
So many things that are Scottish come under English, like every export through Dover…
Believing this pish is like believing Westminster really are desperate to better together for the whole uk.
If we were deniably on the English and subsidised higher by them. Not a cat chance in hell they would’ve went to the lengths they did to keep us in the the union..
absolute nonsense.
And as i didn’t want to read this thread because i knew it would be like this, i am going to throw my toys out the pram and refuse to look at it again, so there

Well ok Hattie, but there are the figures which are stark but not out of line with what any appraisal of the Scottish economy would suggest.

You can concoct all the counter factuals and conspiracy theories you like but independence will never be won on that basis; noone outside hardcore voters of the heart will go on that basis.

If we are serious, and im not persuaded we are as a nation and even less so the current generation of the SNP, then we need to be more persuasive than: if independent we'd suddenly head in the exact opposite direction of current SNP approaches in domains we do control and achieve a dramatic reversal of economic fortunes just by being independent.

And that will especially be the case with 20% or 30% or more of citizens not being Scottish.

 

[hibbybilly]

And as i didn’t want to read this thread because i knew it would be like this, i am going to throw my toys out the pram and refuse to look at it again, so there

You widnae get the last word anyway Stu.

 

[egb_hibs]

You widnae get the last word anyway Stu.

 

[Jack]

Oil and gas is one of the most highly scrutinised industries there is, from an investment point of view. I very much doubt government figures could be very wide of the mark without it being shot down pretty much instantly. It's also an industry that has had its day in the UK thanks to the policies of governments at both HR and WM.

I think its a completely misconceived question. I dont think anyone actually shares this logic outside nationalist circles. From a UK pov its just one other region that runs at a loss. In that respect we are behind Wales, NI and swathes of England. I daresay there are some in London who would like it to be rich city state, but outside that and from this point of view, Scotland is just another region that runs at a loss as they pretty much all do. It only becomes a discussion point in the context of independence where we would be without regional subsidies and would need to adjust accordingly.

Even NI which I daresay more than a few politicians would like to be shot of for entirely different reasons (albeit now much reduced), is going nowhere unless the Irish of north and south want it.

Otoh there are tonnes of reasons they'd want scotland to stay in the UK ranging from sentiment to brass tacks like security.

Oil was used as an example.

There's an awful lot of high value fish are exported through Heathrow, indeed it was or is the highest value export through there. As pointed out Scottish exports through Dover (and Felixstowe) are English exports ... I could go on.

And I will continue to ask the completely misconceived question until some unionist can give me/us a plausible answer.

 

[egb_hibs]

Oil was used as an example.

There's an awful lot of high value fish are exported through Heathrow, indeed it was or is the highest value export through there. As pointed out Scottish exports through Dover (and Felixstowe) are English exports ... I could go on.

Maybe so @Jack but unless the SNP led government are cooking the books in favour of unionism, the position is as it is, whatever the quibbles are at the margins. And it's really not surprising. Of course we have some good industries but not enough to support our expenditure.

And I will continue to ask the completely misconceived question until some unionist can give me/us a plausible answer.

Go ahead. Speaking as a rational nationalist I will keep pointing out that such things dont help the cause.

You're never going to get an answer that satisfies you to a question that doesn't make sense to anyone but you and like minded people. Its like Ryan asking why noone else is switched on to the 'they' that run the world.

 

[1 Mcnamara]

People a lot more switched on than me over the UKs income, have assured me ( and I trust them explicitly) that the figures are misleading because so much from Scotland actually gets counted as English.
Westminster do not have a good record of telling us and others the truth.
Britain was on its arse until the oil fields in the North Sea started producing. Funny that our finances started to improve around about the same time.
Just a coincidence apparently

 

[Dub]

So the SNP controlled Scottish government is rigging data to support the union? I'm not sure I buy that. And nor will most of the electorate. The money markets certainly arent going to be fooled by something so wild.

Much of England will be like this and Wales and NI probably worse. Sadly it is highly highly unlikely that Scotland is in surplus and both the Scottish and Westminster governments pretending otherwise. Look around, its not a surprise. We have high levels of social problems that require expenditure, a higher than UK dependence on state employment which requires expenditure, and low levels of things that generate revenue.

You were saying

Specifically, the revenue data comes from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) (Public Sector Finances), while expenditure data is primarily derived from HM Treasury's Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses and the Country and Regional Analysis (CRA). Additionally, GERS utilizes the Scottish Government's estimates of Scottish Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

 

[DJG64]

GERS debunked comprehensively by Richard Murphy

It’s GERS Day in Scotland

The National posted this video by me on their channel this afternoon: This is the transcript: It’s August, and so inevitably in Scotland we get GERS day, which is the day when the Scottish government publishes the Government Expenditure and Revenue Statement for Scotland or GERS for...

www.taxresearch.org.uk

 

[connerg]

Can i make an observation from history? Hibs are still here because they stood up for themselves.
To all the no voters, get off your knee's and stop grovelling to Westminster and the Monarchy.

Don't worry about your pension either, it's safe.

 

[Doc Shrink]

Don't worry about your pension either, it's safe.

What about my bus pass?

 

[Ryan69]

You're welcome, but it doesn't mean that Scotland is other than subsidised by England and therefore London.

Hopefully that's all a bit clearer now

If Scotlands Salmon,Whisky or Oil is exported from an Engerland Airport or Seaport.....It's put down as an English product.

So it's very difficult to tell if Scotland is subsidised.

But the fact England produces fuck all....Id guess there's a reason why they do that.

 

[connerg]

What about my bus pass?

Aye,. i should get mine in four years. If it gets abolished and they young *&*^ still get it. Fuck sake.

 

[Jack]

What about my bus pass?

Well if we fall into line with England, possible if a unionist party get in Holyrood, people have to be of pensionable age to get it*. I think there's all sorts of other quirky bits in certain regions, like no concessionary travel before 9.30 or 10 am, stuff like that.

* the English regions are ragin that London’s over 60s I think get a concessionary oyster card.

 

[hibbybilly]

Well if we fall into line with England, possible if a unionist party get in Holyrood, people have to be of pensionable age to get it*. I think there's all sorts of other quirky bits in certain regions, like no concessionary travel before 9.30 or 10 am, stuff like that.

* the English regions are ragin that London’s over 60s I think get a concessionary oyster card.

The English only give free stuff tae illegal immigrants.

 

[egb_hibs]

You were saying

Specifically, the revenue data comes from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) (Public Sector Finances), while expenditure data is primarily derived from HM Treasury's Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses and the Country and Regional Analysis (CRA). Additionally, GERS utilizes the Scottish Government's estimates of Scottish Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

What's your point D? GERS is produced by tbe Scottish government utilising data from a number of collectors.

What are we really saying here? That Scottish goverment dupes are hoodwinked into using data rigged by schemers at the ONS and then further hoodwink legions of investment analysts around the globe who are smarter than either of them?

Perhaps we should just dismiss all evidence, get some red 'make Scotland great again' caps made up and be done with it

Except unlike them we have a serf mentality and dont want to engage with realities we are used to leaving to a paternal Westminster. Which is why we are unlikely ever to achieve independence: we arent serious.

 

[egb_hibs]

GERS debunked comprehensively by Richard Murphy

It’s GERS Day in Scotland

The National posted this video by me on their channel this afternoon: This is the transcript: It’s August, and so inevitably in Scotland we get GERS day, which is the day when the Scottish government publishes the Government Expenditure and Revenue Statement for Scotland or GERS for...

www.taxresearch.org.uk

What a lot of pish. Its mum and dads fault at Westminster for providing us with money we don't raise ourselves ? Id like to see what this guy said if WM corrected that and slashed our budget by 11 to 14% per cent (depending how the oil is factored).

 

[egb_hibs]

People a lot more switched on than me over the UKs income, have assured me ( and I trust them explicitly) that the figures are misleading because so much from Scotland actually gets counted as English.
Westminster do not have a good record of telling us and others the truth.
Britain was on its arse until the oil fields in the North Sea started producing. Funny that our finances started to improve around about the same time.
Just a coincidence apparently

Which may or may not be a good point if we had a time machine. But thats what we do here; stew in the past rather than stand up and embrace the future.

 

[egb_hibs]

Can i make an observation from history? Hibs are still here because they stood up for themselves.
To all the no voters, get off your knee's and stop grovelling to Westminster and the Monarchy.

Don't worry about your pension either, it's safe.

Hibs are still here because realistic people faced into our problems and took practical action to address them rather than whinging it wasn't fair what the nasty jambos were doing.