Politics Labour not financial basket case they're made out to be

There is a reason for adage; 'the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth'. Omission of context and use of isolated data points is how propagandists such as the canary create 'fake news' rather subtler than Trump claiming larger inauguration crowds than Obama.

Here is a graph from wings over Scotland, included because it's a bit cleaner in presentation imho:

ukdeficits.jpg


The bit the canary has omitted, is the rather pointed fact that the picture shows previous governments borrowing while economy was in the doldrums then reducing that as it picked up. The notable thing about new labour was their contra Keynesian increase in borrowing as the economy was in an unprecedented (credit based) boom. After their initial term where they stuck with pre-existing Tory plans and therefore kept tracking downwards, they massively increased borrowing when the sun was shining - when Keynes would have you mending your roof.

You then had the double whammy caused by the casino crashing - that casino being the foundation of the economy in itself - exacerbated by the mind boggling uptick in borrowing on top. We see the devastating effect thereafter, which has continued ever since, with borrowing staying in the stratosphere to address the effects without savage cuts (the canary's closing lines showing their hand unambiguously).

The rather melancholy longer term picture is Labour wrecking the economy, the tories borrowing to patch it up, getting it under control again, Labour gaining power; rinse, repeat. Or perhaps we are to believe that the Tories are actually the party of big state spending, in which case why do the canary et al prefer labour cuts?

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Ps underneath it all is a longer term story of unsustainability regardless of party. You cannot continue to have a system based on high rates of labour compared to dependents, as your birth rate declines, population ages, social changes increase demand on welfare while reducing supply, and all the while moving jobs offshore.

Nobody in the western world, on either side of the aisle, can or even probably wants to face that, so the long term story is of slow motion collapse. If you're ever in NYC spend a second watching the debt clock near Times Square, it is somewhat sobering. Again has beena cross party thing there; were it not for 9/11 and all that followed, Dubya would be remembered for the spending binge which accompanied the long forgotten agenda on which he was elected, 'compassionate conservatism' - he borrowed and grew the state more than any democrat since FDR iirc.
 
There is a reason for adage; 'the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth'. Omission of context and use of isolated data points is how propagandists such as the canary create 'fake news' rather subtler than Trump claiming larger inauguration crowds than Obama.

Here is a graph from wings over Scotland, included because it's a bit cleaner in presentation imho:

ukdeficits.jpg


The bit the canary has omitted, is the rather pointed fact that the picture shows previous governments borrowing while economy was in the doldrums then reducing that as it picked up. The notable thing about new labour was their contra Keynesian increase in borrowing as the economy was in an unprecedented (credit based) boom. After their initial term where they stuck with pre-existing Tory plans and therefore kept tracking downwards, they massively increased borrowing when the sun was shining - when Keynes would have you mending your roof.

You then had the double whammy caused by the casino crashing - that casino being the foundation of the economy in itself - exacerbated by the mind boggling uptick in borrowing on top. We see the devastating effect thereafter, which has continued ever since, with borrowing staying in the stratosphere to address the effects without savage cuts (the canary's closing lines showing their hand unambiguously).

The rather melancholy longer term picture is Labour wrecking the economy, the tories borrowing to patch it up, getting it under control again, Labour gaining power; rinse, repeat. Or perhaps we are to believe that the Tories are actually the party of big state spending, in which case why do the canary et al prefer labour cuts?

Appreciate that, man.

So, nu Labour being the issue. Remove them from the equation and our (general) left & right economics remain in line, conceptionally.
 
Appreciate that, man.

So, nu Labour being the issue. Remove them from the equation and our (general) left & right economics remain in line, conceptionally.

Judging by the quote, you may have responded before my 'ps'. As you'll see my overall prognosis is a bit corporal jones. I don't see a way out for a good while yet - the coming wave of AI / automation is going to render offshoring or immigrated labour questions a bit moot. And that's not to mention the coming pensions crisis which is both systemic and directly and hugely exacerbated by new labour.

I doubt you or I will see much better conditions for the average joe before we retire and possibly for the rest of our lives. I just hope that the doom remains 'only' economic.
 
Judging by the quote, you may have responded before my 'ps'. As you'll see my overall prognosis is a bit corporal jones. I don't see a way out for a good while yet - the coming wave of AI / automation is going to render offshoring or immigrated labour questions a bit moot. And that's not to mention the coming pensions crisis which is both systemic and directly and hugely exacerbated by new labour.

I doubt you or I will see much better conditions for the average joe before we retire and possibly for the rest of our lives. I just hope that the doom remains 'only' economic.

Yep, didn't catch the P.S.

Without a new model we're doomed to the slow, inexorable decline into a Cormac MacCarthy dystopia? Well, when things eventually get non-economic, then it'll be pretty nasty. Unless automation fixes this shit a whole lot quicker than we expect. Mind you, exponentiality in computing suggests there's a chance. As long as the politics can keep up, or let go.
 
Ps on AI - I love how much of the foreboding is around nonsense like emergent consciousness leading to killer robots wiping us out or some bullshit variant. It will be death by automated servicing and supply chain, not fucking terminator.

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We crossed posts again K; interesting that you see automation as helping. Looking around the world I find it hard to imagine that the eradication of jobs by machines will lead to a spread of wealth vs even further polarisation. That said, the final paradox that there will be no consumers for the products of automation - as they will have no jobs to generate spending power - must mean that something will change eventually. But if there is a rosey conclusion it will be our children's children who see it.
 
Ps on AI - I love how much of the foreboding is around nonsense like emergent consciousness leading to killer robots wiping us out or some bullshit variant. It will be death by automated servicing and supply chain, not fucking terminator.

It's a fair philosophical point to ponder rather than running headlong into killer AmaGoogApple-hivemind. But, aye, it'll be a whole swathe of society either jobless as a result or liberated from a life of toil as a result.

We have to liberate everyone at the same time for the liberation to be liberation. Otherwise it'll be us vs. them. People starving. The other half in self preservation mode.

Classic Atwood / McCarthy / K.Dick shtick.
 
The UK had a structural deficit in the BOOM times! And the Lib Dems and SNP were calling for more spending....
 
It's a fair philosophical point to ponder rather than running headlong into killer AmaGoogApple-hivemind. But, aye, it'll be a whole swathe of society either jobless as a result or liberated from a life of toil as a result.

We have to liberate everyone at the same time for the liberation to be liberation. Otherwise it'll be us vs. them. People starving. The other half in self preservation mode.

Classic Atwood / McCarthy / K.$#@! shtick.

The direction of travel seems to be a universal basic income, which some will see as liberation, but I see as pocket money to be spend on the products produced by a techno-elite. I don't know Atwood and McCarthy, but if there is a dystopian future I reckon it will be more brave new world than 1984 - existence in a playground of sex and intoxicants, overseen by a benevolent technocracy. I'm glad I won't be around for it, even if it sounds fun for a fortnight.

That said, humanity gets in the way, and even if things headed that way, a society like that is not going to last long against yer islamists and whatnot.

But this is all far off stuff and necessarily speculative; back into our timeframe, I can't see how things changed markedly. I'm just glad i got enrolled into an employer pension (back when they were decent) when I still had a shaun ryder haircut and would have never considered such a thing off my own bat. I'm just hoping I can keep finding work until that comes in.
 
The direction of travel seems to be a universal basic income, which some will see as liberation, but I see as pocket money to be spend on the products produced by a techno-elite. I don't know Atwood and McCarthy, but if there is a dystopian future I reckon it will be more brave new world than 1984 - existence in a playground of sex and intoxicants, overseen by a benevolent technocracy. I'm glad I won't be around for it, even if it sounds fun for a fortnight.

That said, humanity gets in the way, and even if things headed that way, a society like that is not going to last long against yer islamists and whatnot.

But this is all far off stuff and necessarily speculative; back into our timeframe, I can't see how things changed markedly. I'm just glad i got enrolled into an employer pension (back when they were decent) when I still had a shaun ryder haircut and would have never considered such a thing off my own bat. I'm just hoping I can keep finding work until that comes in.

My pension fund theoretics rely on automation solving all of humanities problems before I retire.
 
My pension fund theoretics rely on automation solving all of humanities problems before I retire.

Ah. A bit of a dilemma then.

Heaven knows it ain't easy but if you're still contracting you must get big tax benefits on anything you could put into a plan B?
 
You've went years ahead...

So I have. Should really pay attention :giggle:

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If cuts = austerity then how does less austerity not equal less cuts / more spending ?!

If you're spending ÂŁ100 a week and decide to only spend ÂŁ30 a week, but someone suggests spending ÂŁ50 a week is a more practical option, that doesn't mean you're spending more than you were, you're just not cutting as deep.
 
If you're spending ÂŁ100 a week and decide to only spend ÂŁ30 a week, but someone suggests spending ÂŁ50 a week is a more practical option, that doesn't mean you're spending more than you were, you're just not cutting as deep.

Borrowing ÂŁ50 a week is spending more than borrowing ÂŁ30 a week.
 
Borrowing ÂŁ50 a week is spending more than borrowing ÂŁ30 a week.

But less than ÂŁ100. Borrow a wee bit more, spread the payments over a longer period of time to allow for less drastic cuts.

My brown wheelie bin is now being collected every 3rd week for fucks sake!
 
But less than ÂŁ100. Borrow a wee bit more, spread the payments over a longer period of time to allow for less drastic cuts.

My brown wheelie bin is now being collected every 3rd week for $#@!s sake!
I'm not going to split hairs - the overarching theme as I see it is that other parties simultaneously point at the Tories borrowing while complaining of austerity and suggesting they would cut less / borrow more than the Tories would. [MENTION=2693]Smurf[/MENTION] can correct me but I think that's what he was also getting at.

We all know that politicians are untroubled by contradiction as long as there are points to be scored, but more scrupulous fellows like ourselves can clearly see it for the have-cake-and-eat-it bullshit it is.

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Ps your bins are nowt to do with it - tram project is a more likely contributor there!
 
My pension fund theoretics rely on automation solving all of humanities problems before I retire.

I feel you, man. Same boat, same shit creek. It's a horrible thought that I might up end relying on my daughter to provide a paddle.
 
I feel you, man. Same boat, same $#@! creek. It's a horrible thought that I might up end relying on my daughter to provide a paddle.

A bit of an aside; 'listening' to you and [MENTION=1429]Brainwrong[/MENTION] - when did 'man' become a thing again. I used to say it all the time in the early 90s and it took me ages to break the habit after I really started bugging myself with it :yeah:
 
[MENTION=2693]Smurf[/MENTION] can correct me but I think that's what he was also getting at.

I was meaning in the boom years 2004-2006 IIRC there was a structural deficit. Borrowing huge sums in the good times obviously leaves you hugely exposed for the not so good times. But Brown thought he'd destroyed the economic cycle. And opposition politicians were just as bad. Tories saying they'd match the spending. SNP and Lib Dems calling for more spending.
 
I feel you, man. Same boat, same shit creek. It's a horrible thought that I might up end relying on my daughter to provide a paddle.

We just have to make sure they succeed, life's a gamble... ;)

A bit of an aside; 'listening' to you and @Brainwrong - when did 'man' become a thing again. I used to say it all the time in the early 90s and it took me ages to break the habit after I really started bugging myself with it :yeah:

As the Beastie Boys once said; 'Be true to yourself and you will never fall'

Don't think saying 'man' ever fell out of use. I obviously don't say it with a 1960's Yank Hippy's inflection. So, don't feel any affectation is associated with it. If I'm speaking to folk from North of the Forth I sometimes say 'min' rather than man, but, that's just a bit of fun. I wouldn't necessarily say it in an interview, but happily say it at work. Pretty legit term as far as I'm concerned.
 
We just have to make sure they succeed, life's a gamble... ;)



As the Beastie Boys once said; 'Be true to yourself and you will never fall'

Don't think saying 'man' ever fell out of use. I obviously don't say it with a 1960's Yank Hippy's inflection. So, don't feel any affectation is associated with it. If I'm speaking to folk from North of the Forth I sometimes say 'min' rather than man, but, that's just a bit of fun. I wouldn't necessarily say it in an interview, but happily say it at work. Pretty legit term as far as I'm concerned.
Yes sorry didn't mean it to come over as a dig - it was just seeing the two of you use it back to back which struck me. Takes me back to the second summer of love grandpa
 
Yes sorry didn't mean it to come over as a dig - it was just seeing the two of you use it back to back which struck me. Takes me back to the second summer of love grandpa

You should re-transition back, man. ;)
 
Not without the hairdo K; and when I look at primal scream or the stone Roses it looks fucking awful on a middle age man (I'm looking at you, especially, John Squire)

It can work. But often doesn't too. I see that a lot in DJs, the middled aged white guys look horrendous, I mean, not that it should really matter but, it kinda looks like someone's dad decided to take over the rave. Seems out of place. Conversely, the black guys carry it far better, age, I mean.