Politics Labour collapsing in C2DE poll (YouGov).

[Chris G Whyte]

Okay, let's start with the big numbers. This is a poll taken by YouGov on Friday, and is amongst the C2DE demographic.

Conservative: 48% (35% in January)
Labour: 37% (46% in January)

The erudite will notice that the Conservatives have gained an incredible 13 points, while Labour have shipped nine, in what's generally understood as the working class (and below) demographic. In other words, it's an eleven point swing away from Labour from its core vote. Now, it's important that other pollsters don't report this swing anywhere near as high, and that YouGov is very much weighted toward right-wing sensibilities. It's also important to note that this could be a rogue poll, and the rolling average is nowhere near as high as this. I suppose I should mention Hitchins' comment too, namely that "opinion polls are a device for influencing public opinion, not a device for measuring it".

But this could be significant. However you choose to apportion blame (Corbyn, the PLP, negative media coverage, Brexit stance), this certainly looks like it could be the start of a calamitous trend for the British Labour party. They're already finding more and more distance between themselves and the worst government in history, and shelving your traditional core vote to the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party could be a signal of the end times.

I suppose it brings the question back into sharp relief:

Who, if anyone, does the Labour party actually STAND for?

It seems the British public might be looking for the answer on a postcard.

 

[GORDONSMITH7]

Okay, let's start with the big numbers. This is a poll taken by YouGov on Friday, and is amongst the C2DE demographic.

Conservative: 48% (35% in January)
Labour: 37% (46% in January)

The erudite will notice that the Conservatives have gained an incredible 13 points, while Labour have shipped nine, in what's generally understood as the working class (and below) demographic. In other words, it's an eleven point swing away from Labour from its core vote. Now, it's important that other pollsters don't report this swing anywhere near as high, and that YouGov is very much weighted toward right-wing sensibilities. It's also important to note that this could be a rogue poll, and the rolling average is nowhere near as high as this. I suppose I should mention Hitchins' comment too, namely that "opinion polls are a device for influencing public opinion, not a device for measuring it".

But this could be significant. However you choose to apportion blame (Corbyn, the PLP, negative media coverage, Brexit stance), this certainly looks like it could be the start of a calamitous trend for the British Labour party. They're already finding more and more distance between themselves and the worst government in history, and shelving your traditional core vote to the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party could be a signal of the end times.

I suppose it brings the question back into sharp relief:

Who, if anyone, does the Labour party actually STAND for?

It seems the British public might be looking for the answer on a postcard.

Remind me if you could . Is this the same science based psephologists YouGov that a mere year ago gave the Tories a 20 + lead over Labour and predicted a 100 seat majority at the Election?
BIG G

 

[Chris G Whyte]

Remind me if you could . Is this the same science based psephologists YouGov that a mere year ago gave the Tories a 20 + lead over Labour and predicted a 100 seat majority at the Election?
BIG G

Aye, bud - pretty much.

YouGov are notorious for overestimating Conservative support, and underestimating Labour support.

The reason this one is interesting isn't necessarily the scale of the shift (because a poll of polls wouldn't show it, and the rolling average eats into it), but more the fact that members of what was once Labour's key demographic seem to be moving to the party that overtly despises them.

 

[GORDONSMITH7]

Myth being banged on just now in the right wing gutter press and some so called 'quality' papers on a daily basis whìch is one of many strands of anti Labour/Corbyn propoganda over the past period....anti semitism, Brexit, aided and abetted by Labour 'Moderates' or 'Rebels' as they are fondly referrred to, ie.right wing Blairite rump of looser fifth columnists, attacking Corbyn, over everything and anything. Chuka Umunna , John Woodcock,Wes Streeting, John Mann, Alison McGovern,Chris Leslie, Ben Bradshaw, Steven Kinnock,Lisa Nandy,Jess Phillips,Liz Kendall amongst others who are now darlings of the 'Free Press' and will be in action again today in Parliament.
Apart from the fantasy island of YouGov do you see this assertion in the real world in the here and now CGW ?

BIG G

 

[Smurf]

Myth being banged on just now in the right wing gutter press and some so called 'quality' papers on a daily basis whìch is one of many strands of anti Labour/Corbyn propoganda over the past period....anti semitism, Brexit, aided and abetted by Labour 'Moderates' or 'Rebels' as they are fondly referrred to, ie.right wing Blairite rump of looser fifth columnists, attacking Corbyn, over everything and anything. Chuka Umunna , John Woodcock,Wes Streeting, John Mann, Alison McGovern,Chris Leslie, Ben Bradshaw, Steven Kinnock,Lisa Nandy,Jess Phillips,Liz Kendall amongst others who are now darlings of the 'Free Press' and will be in action again today in Parliament.
Apart from the fantasy island of YouGov do you see this assertion in the real world in the here and now CGW ?

BIG G

Maybe so but Corbyn has no chance of defeating the Tories. I accept it's very very difficult for him as the media establishment are determined to ensure he gets no fair hearing but go back to before 1997 and neither did Blair. I've become a Yes man as i accept Labour is finished.

 

[Bofahibee]

Maybe so but Corbyn has no chance of defeating the Tories. I accept it's very very difficult for him as the media establishment are determined to ensure he gets no fair hearing but go back to before 1997 and neither did Blair. I've become a Yes man as i accept Labour is finished.

If Jeremy Corbyn and the Lib Dems has taken the concept of a progressive alliance seriously, JC would be prime minister now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Chris G Whyte]

Apart from the fantasy island of YouGov do you see this assertion in the real world in the here and now CGW?

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Labour support dips between purdah periods. The inference, pretty obviously, is that our print and broadcast media are ostensibly Conservative; some are just a bit more sophisticated in their attempts to hide it. FWIW, I don’t tend to think Labour has an especial problem with anti-Semitism, but the other issues listed are very real problems for them – namely the hopeless stance on Brexit, and the right-wing Blairite side of the party that would be much more comfortable on the other side of the chamber. I recall Jacob Rees-Mogg buttering up Liz Kendall when they were both on Question Time, but Kendall has absolutely no place in the Labour party. She’s a Tory, through and through.

Unfortunately, she stands in a constituency that only Labour can win. Indeed, in its hundred years, it’s NEVER elected a Conservative. Not once. And if you look at the continuation of Labour holding it, you’re going back to 1945. As a result, electoral expediency puts her into the Labour party where people are still willing to argue that Labour should be a broad church.

But here’s the problem:

A broad church of differing opinions is fine, so long as that group of people agree on the most fundamental principles of what the party stands for. That just isn’t the reality for the current Labour party, which has factions that fundamentally disagree. Not only that, the party can’t risk a split because our electoral system will simply guarantee Conservative governance if that happens.

But your question is whether or not I see the C2DE demographic abandoning Labour.

The short answer is “Yes”.

Though, at nowhere near the scale reported by YouGov.

Labour heartlands used to include Scotland, where the SNP has effectively replaced Labour for the working classes and the groups immediately surrounding it. The working classes in England are also significantly skewed toward supporting Brexit, which the media commentariat seems the believe Labour should oppose and which, indeed, they did during the referendum (well… Ish). This didn’t help. And, it’s worth remembering that Labour has managed to shelve millions of votes, which presumably come from the left-wing, working-class core that New Labour’s removal of Clause IV abandoned.

I've become a Yes man as i accept Labour is finished.

It's quite amusing that you, a Labour man, have now come to support independence because you think Labour is finished. On the other hand I, an avowed supporter of independence, don't necessarily think so.

I do feel that its current iteration is headed nowhere, but not that any iteration would be. For me, they simply have some existential problems that nobody in the party seems all that determined to confront.

Unfortunately, they've done themselves no favours last night with their abstention. It was an extraordinary betrayal of their electoral duty, and allowed the very foundations of devolution to be deleted without so much as a cursory debate (the fifteen minutes allocated were filibustered, without a single Scottish MP being allowed to speak).

Scottish media is doing its best to whitewash this fact, but Donald Dewar will be turning in his grave.

 

[Two Headed Boy]

Im not sure this is the killer blow to Labour that it seems. I think it's just further evidence that political divisions have less and less to do with class anymore.

Age seems to be a bigger factor. Generally speaking, young people are veering to the left because they are skint and want change, the middle aged and above are more comfortable than they have ever been and that inevitably results in a lean to the right. There are exceptions to this obviously but I can't remember a bigger political divide between the under 40s and their elders in my lifetime. You'd probably have to go back to the 70s...

 

[Kenny]

nice of them to NOT stick up for devolution - a sure vote winner.

 

[Chris G Whyte]

Im not sure this is the killer blow to Labour that it seems. I think it's just further evidence that political divisions have less and less to do with class anymore.

I think you're absolutely right in your views about age, the divide between 'young' and 'old' has never been more stark (politically speaking).

That said, I still think class is the major driver of just about everything in the United Kingdom. For me, I think the issue is that we really need to start thinking about it differently to the way we used to when terms like "working class" were first applied. If you think about it, the working class actually has several discrete levels and there now happens to be a class below it; the "under-class".

Ultimately, if class is defined by economic activity (which it still largely is) then we need to accept that the previous definitions don't work now that the modern economy is so diverse compared to what it used to be. And for me, the Labour party should be representing classes from the lower-middle and down.

As things stand, few would argue that's what they're actively doing.