Iran

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egb_hibs said:
Sounds plausible to me @Jack

They are hitting out right, left and centre and not just at military bases. All the Arab countries that are amenable to peace in the region are squarely in their crosshairs, as they have always been.
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I don’t think it’s got anything to do with being amenable to peace in this instance, it’s more to do with those neighbouring countries hosting US bases. In which case they’re fair game in a war.
That’s not me sticking up for Iran by the way. I’d expect any country to respond in similar fashion under the circumstances.
 
Jack said:
I doubt it was anything UK related. More likely to destroy the growing Arab countries tourist industry. Even as a transit hub for the Arab Airlines.

I'm not sure Tunisias tourist industry has properly recovered from the beach attack 10 years ago.
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I stayed at that hotel prior to the attack.
:cover:
 
Archie said:
Interesting summary of the run up to the launch of attacks on Iran.

www.nytimes.com

How Trump Decided to Go to War

President Trump’s embrace of military action in Iran was spurred by an Israeli leader determined to end diplomatic negotiations. Few of the president’s advisers voiced opposition.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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egb_hibs said:
And why are they hitting hotels across the region so you think?
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How would I know. I was just explaining to Hammi (as I did to you) why akritiri was targeted.
 
egb_hibs said:
I imagine they've been waiting on a pretext and the massacres gave them one (as well as being an end in themself). The thinking is probably that you don't leave it till the last moment on these things. And that's as well as Iran being a permanent obstacle to regional peace, and plotting to assassinate Donny.

This may turn out to be another middle Eastern disaster, indeed it's likely. But Iran's regime are the most dangerous bams on the planet. It's not really like storytime with Alistair and Tony tbf.
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We were nowhere near the last minute dude, their programme was completely obliterated in August, I'm interested in where the off ramp is now, these attacks came in the midst of negotiations at the point where Iran was offering JCPA+ already, you'd think unless they clear out the regime entirely (without boots on the ground?!) negotiations around a long term solution are likely to be more difficult....it feels like either they leave remnants of the regime in place with beards signed and 100 kids dead or they keep going and look to provoke a civil war and turning Iran into a failed state with mass killings and displacement with all the costs that has for them and is (another refugee crisis) it feels bone headed to me, I'm surprised you're so sanguine, I don't really get your position here
 
I don't believe any of this is about Iran...it's about China.

The US invaded Venezuela because China was becoming too friendly with them and China is the number one exporter of crude oil from there. Now we look at Iran and China exports up to 90% of Iran's crude oil from there. This isn't about liberating Iran, this is about trying to keep China economically strangled.
 
BVilleggiante said:
I don't believe any of this is about Iran...it's about China.

The US invaded Venezuela because China was becoming too friendly with them and China is the number one exporter of crude oil from there. Now we look at Iran and China exports up to 90% of Iran's crude oil from there. This isn't about liberating Iran, this is about trying to keep China economically strangled.
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100% it will now be more reliant on Russia.
 
baggageandfibs said:
quite a leaky White House it seems
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I think it is for a number of reasons. There are a lot of extremely competitive people there who are anxious to get their side of story out. JD Vance, for example, has been very explicit on the US shouldn't and wouldn't go to war with Iran. That leaves him exposed. So the press gets info that he said 'go in hard and quick'.

I'm sure others have similar motivations.
 
BVilleggiante said:
I don't believe any of this is about Iran...it's about China.

The US invaded Venezuela because China was becoming too friendly with them and China is the number one exporter of crude oil from there. Now we look at Iran and China exports up to 90% of Iran's crude oil from there. This isn't about liberating Iran, this is about trying to keep China economically strangled.
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Might be a Chinese angle right enough, but it's a bit mental cos any third country looking on has gotta think America is unpredictable, belligerent and untrustworthy. I'd be looking at Lindsey Graham and other Muppets admiring they've absolutely no plan and thinking I'm on team Xi.....
 
Archie said:
I think it is for a number of reasons. There are a lot of extremely competitive people there who are anxious to get their side of story out. JD Vance, for example, has been very explicit on the US shouldn't and wouldn't go to war with Iran. That leaves him exposed. So the press gets info that he said 'go in hard and quick'.

I'm sure others have similar motivations.
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Also looks the impromptu situation room at Mar-a-Lago was set up using a bedspread and some beach-towels so maybe security wasn't all that. Susie Wiles was pictured in the meeting with an Apple Watch on, a complete security no go by all accounts. The Iranians must have shit spies.
 
Now they ken how the people of Gaza felt.
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Listen tae this cvnt.

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baggageandfibs said:
Horrible reality check during the Hegseth press conference that even when Trump is gone we will still have absolute cretins like the secretary for war on the scene for years to come.
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I dare to hope that many of these tw@ts are merely playing up for Donnie (I mean, he fires anyone who doesn't tow the line in terms of rhetoric) & will tone down a fair bit when hes gone. And hopefully others will have no further careers in politics at all, perhaps even face jail time, as a result of covering up his paedophilia.
 
From Facebook:

> 70 years ago, Iran looked just like any Western country.
> Short skirts, rock’n’roll, open universities.
> It’s 1953. Iran elects a secular socialist: Mohammad Mossadegh.
> He nationalizes oil. That pisses off BP.
> Cold War excuse.
> CIA and MI6 stage a coup. Operation Ajax.
> Mossadegh is overthrown.
> They install the Shah, a brutal US-backed dictator.
> Secret police. Torture chambers.
> Iran turns into a puppet state.
> People are that desperate, they turn to Khomeini, an exiled cleric, promising independence and dignity.
> 1979: Islamic Revolution.
> The Shah flees.
> US embassy stormed. Hostage crisis.
> America never forgives.
> Arms Saddam Hussein.
> Iraq invades Iran.
> US provides chemical weapons, satellite intel, logistics.
> 1 million Iranians die.
> Iranian kids sent into minefields with plastic keys around their necks.
> US shoots down Iran Air Flight 655
> 290 civilians dead.
> No apology.
> Fast forward today, Israel attacks Iran.
> The U.S. immediately says “we stand with Israel.”
> They talk about “regime change.”
> They say that Iranians “deserve freedom.”
> No mention of the coup they started.
> No mention of the dictator they installed.
> No mention of the war they fueled.
> No mention of the decades of sanctions and sabotage.
> They created the monster, and now they attacked it because it was still breathing.
> Watch who they try to put on the throne next.
> The son of the Shah is already being presented as the “alternative.”
> The same dynasty.
> The same foreign backing.
>The same promises of stability.
> History will repeats itself.
> And it’s not gonna end well.
 
Iran has told the Saudis that they did not attack them, there is some rumours circling tonight about this, Saudis are investigating seemingly as flight paths dont make sense.
 
Iran hit Ras Laffan in Qatar yesterday - the biggest gas plant in the world and state owned (Qatar Gas) i.e. no US connections. Worked there a few times and it's huge. Also stopping passage for oil tankers in the Hormuz Strait which will eventually cause all the oil & gas facilities in the region to cease production as the storage tanks get full with nowhere for it to go.
 
bigmanandy said:
Iran has told the Saudis that they did not attack them, there is some rumours circling tonight about this, Saudis are investigating seemingly as flight paths dont make sense.
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Widnae surprise me. They Israeli cvnts have form.
 
Hibee Kev said:
Iran hit Ras Laffan in Qatar yesterday - the biggest gas plant in the world and state owned (Qatar Gas) i.e. no US connections. Worked there a few times and it's huge. Also stopping passage for oil tankers in the Hormuz Strait which will eventually cause all the oil & gas facilities in the region to cease production as the storage tanks get full with nowhere for it to go.
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To add - China gets >50% of it's oil supplies from this region so eventually it will have a knock on effect for them and could drag them into it.
 
Dub said:
From Facebook:

> 70 years ago, Iran looked just like any Western country.
> Short skirts, rock’n’roll, open universities.
> It’s 1953. Iran elects a secular socialist: Mohammad Mossadegh.
> He nationalizes oil. That pisses off BP.
> Cold War excuse.
> CIA and MI6 stage a coup. Operation Ajax.
> Mossadegh is overthrown.
> They install the Shah, a brutal US-backed dictator.
> Secret police. Torture chambers.
> Iran turns into a puppet state.
> People are that desperate, they turn to Khomeini, an exiled cleric, promising independence and dignity.
> 1979: Islamic Revolution.
> The Shah flees.
> US embassy stormed. Hostage crisis.
> America never forgives.
> Arms Saddam Hussein.
> Iraq invades Iran.
> US provides chemical weapons, satellite intel, logistics.
> 1 million Iranians die.
> Iranian kids sent into minefields with plastic keys around their necks.
> US shoots down Iran Air Flight 655
> 290 civilians dead.
> No apology.
> Fast forward today, Israel attacks Iran.
> The U.S. immediately says “we stand with Israel.”
> They talk about “regime change.”
> They say that Iranians “deserve freedom.”
> No mention of the coup they started.
> No mention of the dictator they installed.
> No mention of the war they fueled.
> No mention of the decades of sanctions and sabotage.
> They created the monster, and now they attacked it because it was still breathing.
> Watch who they try to put on the throne next.
> The son of the Shah is already being presented as the “alternative.”
> The same dynasty.
> The same foreign backing.
>The same promises of stability.
> History will repeats itself.
> And it’s not gonna end well.
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Tldr;

- Americans who are long gone mounted a coup in Iran
- sometime later the left help the Mullahs to power - they are all long gone too, having all been executed
- a miserable reign of horror has followed and is now near a half century in
- wiffle waffle wiffle waffle, Americans, joooos, what about...

Completely vacuous : what is his / her point? If they have a time machine available, great. If not, what are they arguing for?
 
gun ainm said:
We were nowhere near the last minute dude, their programme was completely obliterated in August,
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You are only the second person I know who thinks that. The other was Donald Trump and I think he's moved on. Expert opinion was, from the get go, that it remained intact, safe in their underground bunkers.
gun ainm said:
I'm interested in where the off ramp is now, these attacks came in the midst of negotiations at the point where Iran was offering JCPA+ already, you'd think unless they clear out the regime entirely (without boots on the ground?!) negotiations around a long term solution are likely to be more difficult....it feels like either they leave remnants of the regime in place with beards signed and 100 kids dead or they keep going and look to provoke a civil war and turning Iran into a failed state with mass killings and displacement with all the costs that has for them and is (another refugee crisis) it feels bone headed to me, I'm surprised you're so sanguine, I don't really get your position here
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My position is as I've said more than once : hoping the Iranians manage to oust the bastards that have destroyed them and the region, but fearing it will turn into another horror show of the kind you describe.

But that is separate to what we have been talking about here. I've just been pointing out why I think they have acted - in response to your question on that point. That's distinct from it being a good idea or likely to succeed.
 
Sancho Panza said:
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To be fair there's the occasional influencer comes up on Facebook reels (I'm not sure how or why they come up 😆) and the real ones are just as bad, if not worse!
 
Beagle said:
I don’t think it’s got anything to do with being amenable to peace in this instance, it’s more to do with those neighbouring countries hosting US bases. In which case they’re fair game in a war.
That’s not me sticking up for Iran by the way. I’d expect any country to respond in similar fashion under the circumstances.
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Where are the US bases in Dubai?
 
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