indyref two

[Kenny]

TNS independence poll:
53% Yes
47% No

Yes support by age:
16-34 = 68% Yes, 32% No
35-54 = 57% Yes, 43% No
Over 55 = 35% Yes, 65% No

it's not going away...

headache for the snp or not?


EDIT Further Polling

TNS #SP16 poll:
SNP 58%
Lab 23%
Con 12%
Lib Dems 5%

SNP support by age:
16-24: 77%
25-34: 66%
35-44: 54%
45-54: 68%
55-64: 57%
65+: 36%

 

[The__Proclaimer]

I was No in the last referendum and assumed SNP were being genuine when they said it was a once in a generation opportunity so we could concentrate on other things.

I'm happy for them to go back on their word if the UK votes to leave the EU tho. Think an exit would be equally or more disastrous for the economy than independence would be. I'd happily change my tune - would rather be part of an independent Scotland within the EU than a United Kingdom out it.

 

[Kenny]

I was No in the last referendum and assumed SNP were being genuine when they said it was a once in a generation opportunity so we could concentrate on other things.

I'm happy for them to go back on their word if the UK votes to leave the EU tho. Think an exit would be equally or more disastrous for the economy than independence would be. I'd happily change my tune - would rather be part of an independent Scotland within the EU than a United Kingdom out it.

Yes, undoubtedly it's a stick to hit them with, but you didn't actually believe it did you?

 

[hibadelic]

I was No in the last referendum and assumed SNP were being genuine when they said it was a once in a generation opportunity so we could concentrate on other things.

I'm happy for them to go back on their word if the UK votes to leave the EU tho. Think an exit would be equally or more disastrous for the economy than independence would be. I'd happily change my tune - would rather be part of an independent Scotland within the EU than a United Kingdom out it.

You're happy for them to go back on their word if it suits your agenda but not if a majority of Scots want it?

I think Cameron will stack the cards in favour of staying in Europe anyway, the whole thing is just a sham to strengthen his hand in European negotiations.

 

[Kenny]

You're happy for them to go back on their word if it suits your agenda but not if a majority of Scots want it?

I think Cameron will stack the cards in favour of staying in Europe anyway, the whole thing is just a sham to strengthen his hand in European negotiations.

that's opinions .... I like the idea of a dictatorship if i'm the dictator ( all jambos to the gulag :bye ) but i'm not for it just if a majority want it.

 

[The__Proclaimer]

You're happy for them to go back on their word if it suits your agenda but not if a majority of Scots want it?

I think Cameron will stack the cards in favour of staying in Europe anyway, the whole thing is just a sham to strengthen his hand in European negotiations.

So you want a neverendum where we are in exactly the same situation but keep voting til we get the result you want? Hardly democracy.

Leaving the EU unquestionably makes the whole premise of a referendum different - it's a major constitutional change.

The only caveat I'd say is that there's only grounds for an independence referendum on the back of it if a large majority of Scots voted to stay in EU.

 

[Two Headed Boy]

You're happy for them to go back on their word if it suits your agenda but not if a majority of Scots want it?

I think Cameron will stack the cards in favour of staying in Europe anyway, the whole thing is just a sham to strengthen his hand in European negotiations.

I think you might be right here. I don't believe Cameron wants the referendum on the EU to go any other way than a no vote. A no will undermine UKIP for one thing, a party whose increasing popularity holds a gun to the head of the Tories whenever they want take a centre-ground approach on anything remotely controversial. I could see Cameron smugly proclaiming "The British public voted no to UK Independence" every time Farage criticises him for being "too soft on (insert populist topic here)".

 

[Kenny]

So you want a neverendum where we are in exactly the same situation but keep voting til we get the result you want? Hardly democracy.

Leaving the EU unquestionably makes the whole premise of a referendum different - it's a major constitutional change.

The only caveat I'd say is that there's only grounds for an independence referendum on the back of it if a large majority of Scots voted to stay in EU.

OK if the SNP keep proposing it, and if folk keep voting for them, and if they keep getting majorities they have a mandate to push for an indyref two....irrespective of constitutional changes.

if its in the manifesto and a majority back the manifesto then that should be enough.....that is democracy

and if you don't want an indyref don't vote snp!

 

[MixuDave]

I was No in the last referendum and assumed SNP were being genuine when they said it was a once in a generation opportunity so we could concentrate on other things.

I'm happy for them to go back on their word if the UK votes to leave the EU tho. Think an exit would be equally or more disastrous for the economy than independence would be. I'd happily change my tune - would rather be part of an independent Scotland within the EU than a United Kingdom out it.

But its not the SNP talking about it? Nicola Sturgeon does her best to avoid talking about it! But yer right man, SNP baaaaaaad

 

[Smurf]

So you want a neverendum where we are in exactly the same situation but keep voting til we get the result you want? Hardly democracy.

That's exactly what they want.

 

[southfieldhibby]

Reckon it's a minor headache.

The SNP will always have it in their manifesto, but equally can't be seen to demand it too soon after last years vote. There will be demands made on Sturgeon to state a timescale once it's been debated in Aberdeen next month, which she'll straight bat using The EU ref as a pointer to the next Scotland ref. Also the obvious difference in attitudes towards the whole refugee issues of the moment play into the SNP hands I think. Appreciate it's easy to say you want more refugees when you can't actually do anything about it, but I think on this one, if we could take more in Scotland, Holyrood would take them.

No Scot ref in this WM parliament, just as been said since the GE.

Lets see if Sturgeon can keep the radicals happy with that semi-long term stance, or if splinters appear.

 

[egb_hibs]

OK if the SNP keep proposing it, and if folk keep voting for them, and if they keep getting majorities they have a mandate to push for an indyref two....irrespective of constitutional changes.

if its in the manifesto and a majority back the manifesto then that should be enough.....that is democracy

and if you don't want an indyref don't vote snp!

Neverendum is not a route the SNP should follow. It smacks of the undemocratic machinations of the euro establishment, who keep going till they get the right answer - eventually landing in a window of external circumstances and dejectedness from opponents where they prevail; at which point no more referendums to sample whether moods have changed again.

I hope to see another bit at the cherry but it needs to have sounded triggering circumstances - such as UK voting to leave the EU. Barring such circumstances there should be a respectable interval before we go round it all again. I'm sorry to say that I think ten years is a respectable interval. The flip side is, btw, that a premature round two may not lead to further neverendums but the collapse of the whole cause - and the SNP.

I wouldn't be banking on the majority quoted above - I'd be wanting nearer to 60/40 before going again - the lesson of polls vs votes cast / 'shy Nos ' should not be forgotten too easily.

- - - Updated - - -

The SNP should also await the results of corbyn labour - if he destroys labour as an electoral force, yes will be strengthened immeasurably.

 

[aggie]

Neverendum is not a route the SNP should follow. It smacks of the undemocratic machinations of the euro establishment, who keep going till they get the right answer - eventually landing in a window of external circumstances and dejectedness from opponents where they prevail; at which point no more referendums to sample whether moods have changed again.

I hope to see another bit at the cherry but it needs to have sounded triggering circumstances - such as UK voting to leave the EU. Barring such circumstances there should be a respectable interval before we go round it all again. I'm sorry to say that I think ten years is a respectable interval. The flip side is, btw, that a premature round two may not lead to further neverendums but the collapse of the whole cause - and the SNP.

I wouldn't be banking on the majority quoted above - I'd be wanting nearer to 60/40 before going again - the lesson of polls vs votes cast / 'shy bis' should not be forgotten too easily.

- - - Updated - - -

The SNP should also await the results of corbyn labour - if he destroys labour as an electoral force, yes will be strengthened immeasurably.

Plus, a few hard winters will take out a lot of the No vote...























JOKING

On a serious note, agree with Eedge on all points above. Keep our powder dry for now, and see if WM further our cause immeasurably all by themselves.

 

[Jack]

I honestly can't see the Torys ever granting a second referendum even if there was a huge English vote to leave Europe while the reverse vote happened in Scotland. Cameron cacked his breeks with the first one. Doesn't matter anyway the establishment had a wee practice with the Scottish referendum and almost slipped up, the prospect of UK leaving the EU will see no such slip ups.

The Labour party in Scotland would have to have a mini revolution within the UK party for them to agree. I suspect the chances of that are remote in the extreme. The Scottish Branch come up somewhat short were original thought is concerned.

Interestingly NI has some sort of right to withdraw from the UK if there was a similar circumstance there, re EU vote, not sure how that got worked into any agreement they have with Westminster.

The once in a generation thing is a red herring, it could be argued a generation in parliament is a term.

 

[Smurf]

I honestly can't see the Torys ever granting a second referendum even if there was a huge English vote to leave Europe while the reverse vote happened in Scotland.

Agreed. However the Scottish Government could still hold one and Westminster can scream and shout all it wants that it wouldn't hold legitimacy but that would only further the pro case for independence....

 

[Kenny]

sovereign will of the people

Mundell attacks SNP referendum stance - BBC News

if the snp put it in the manifesto and folk dont want it they wont vote snp - instead of attacking the events of 12 months ago why not invite scots who don't want another indyref to not vote snp?

surely conservatives would welcome the indyref2 in the snp manifesto, it would give people a reason to not vote snp?

the irony is the tory fudricks are ones foisting an eu ref on us?!

 

[Greenmachine]

Sturgeon knows there is no point in having a second referendum until it is clear from opinion polls that a significant majority of people in Scotland favour independence. Apart from one rogue poll a week before the vote last year, there has never been any poll which has shown that a majority of Scots want to leave the UK. I do think this will change in the next five years or so. I think there will be a gradual drift in favour of independence as the Tory cuts emanating from Westminster become even more hard hitting during this term, and also when it becomes clear that the recommendations from the Smith commission are not going to be enacted in full. I also think the joke which is the current official opposition at Westminster will make many Scots think that the Tories are going to remain in power for the next 10 years or so. The EU vote might also be a factor but I am fairly confident people in the UK will vote to stay in the EU.

The pro-independence movement will have to address the questions that were not (by their own admission) dealt with properly during the campaign last year....namely the currency, Scotland's future in the EU and pensions security.

One thing I do believe is that if and when a second referendum takes place then there will be a clear yes vote.

 

[Jack]

One thing I do believe is that if and when a second referendum takes place then there will be a clear yes vote.

And that's why I believe there will be no second independence referendum.

Joking aside, maybe, UDI in a similar way to South Africa, is the only way Scotland will become a independent country.

 

[egb_hibs]

And that's why I believe there will be no second independence referendum.

Joking aside, maybe, UDI in a similar way to South Africa, is the only way Scotland will become a independent country.

You couldn't do that without an overwhelming majority of scots behind it, and there is no evidence for that. The poll data presented above doesn't persuade me yes would win an indyref2 - we need far bigger margins to be confident of that, given the difference between what people say and what they do.

 

[Hibee Kev]

we need far bigger margins to be confident of that, given the difference between what people say and what they do.

This is a crucial factor and I agree we would need to see far bigger margins in the polls to balance this. Having said that, give it a few years and a lot of the 'grey vote' which got NO over the line will all be pan breid!

 

[Purple & Green]

The Quebec experience was there was a clear majority in favour of yes and they went for a quick campaign and vote - iirc 6 weeks. Expect the same. Snp are saying they reserve right to hold a referendum, if there's a case for it. The economy is picking up its becoming a harder sell, but there is a groundswell of nationalist support at younger ages - it would interesting to see what data there is for this over the last 50 years. My suspicion is there has been a drift towards the snp from labour and Tory and liberal in first time voters over the period. That might mean if the snp run a tight ship then indy is inevitable within I'd guess 20 years.


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[Kenny]

The Quebec experience was there was a clear majority in favour of yes and they went for a quick campaign and vote - iirc 6 weeks. Expect the same. Snp are saying they reserve right to hold a referendum, if there's a case for it. The economy is picking up its becoming a harder sell, but there is a groundswell of nationalist support at younger ages - it would interesting to see what data there is for this over the last 50 years. My suspicion is there has been a drift towards the snp from labour and Tory and liberal in first time voters over the period. That might mean if the snp run a tight ship then indy is inevitable within I'd guess 20 years.


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"business as usual" that Mundell and Murray, dugdale and davidson crave won't happen until indyref 2.

prior to the the last one I said the winner needed to hit the 60% mark anything less would be hugely detrimental to the winner (both ways).

I voted Yes, I recognise the result but while we're in the situation than only 1 in 20 needs to change their mind - move out of scotland - move into scotland - come of voting age - die - be incarcerated...those margins are too small to put the matter to bed.

the clever unionist think to do would be to call a referendum when snp are in a dip, set out the timetable and question - snp couldn't turn down a free referendum - get the 60% and move on - the problem with that is SNP (greens too) are very much on the up and labour are languishing on polling results close to the tories - thats the tories who had one of the their worst post war vote shares.

 

[Jack]

You couldn't do that without an overwhelming majority of scots behind it, and there is no evidence for that. The poll data presented above doesn't persuade me yes would win an indyref2 - we need far bigger margins to be confident of that, given the difference between what people say and what they do.

I agree it won't be any time soon.

However with the way the political landscape is and likely to be for the foreseeable future; an exceptionally strong SNP chipping away for independence; a weak Labour Party, even weaker in Scotland; a Tory Party with an utter disdain of Scotland and it's people. The latter two that make promises only to break them once the votes have been cast. I can see a time when those rebellious Scots will have had enough and a real resentment of Westminster will be born and grow as each referendum opportunity is kicked into touch with a smug and dismissive smirk.