I'm repeating myself here, but...
Every available piece of evidence - historical, contemporary and statistical - indicates that, should we punt David Gray, his successor will be less successful than Gray has been.
In my view, that's a fact.
Indisputable.
Percentage wise, even given our strengthened position as a result of the recent gratuities & donations we've received, I'd put the chances of the next manager falling short of Gray's achievements at 65% to 70%
.
So long as the "Gray Out!" brigade accepts that, they have a case.
The argument for punting Gray is not wholly unreasonable.
There are times when folk might justifiably consider their situation to be bad enough that taking a risky decision in an attempt to improve it is the best course of action - even if taking that risk is not a "percentage shot."
Let's say you're down the bookies, Winston Ingram style. You're doing badly. Very badly. You realise you've lost so much money that you're short of your rent. It's due tomorrow. Your landlord's a bastard who'll throw you out. You need £40. Sharpish. The most likely winner in the remaining races is an 8-11 shot in a steeplechase. It's a classy horse, but it's a dodgy jumper and it's at Wetherby or Haydock or somewhere else with bastard fences. (I'm not up to date, but Wetherby & Haydock used to have bastard fences 40 or 50 years ago) You reckon the animal has a 20% chance of falling and should be no shorter than evens, but it's still a more likely winner than anything else running in the last few races.
Do you stick £55 on it to get the £40 you need for your rent?
There's a case for saying you should.
Aye, there are undoubtedly lots of better managers than Gray out there.
Aye, keeping him for a whole two seasons will have diminished the "Watford Lite" reputation we were acquiring amongst the "Managerial Community"...
...But I doubt any manager/coach who is obviously superior to Gray will be applying for the post of Hibernian FC Manager if we punt him.
Foreign coaches - Sassenachs included - have an alarming tendency to misread the Scottish game, mainly on the matter of its relentless physicality. Tommy Docherty's quip about George Graham's Arsenal comes to mind: "Games should be officiated by a referee, not two linesmen and Air Traffic Control."
Foreigners' Little Black Books of contacts are of little use, because most of the names in it will be other coaches who fail to understand Scottish football and players who won't adapt to Scottish football.
I keep saying this.
Our next manager will either be a "highly regarded" English coach with little experience of being the main man, or a "continental" that none of us have heard of.
McInnes is not defecting.
Askou isn't coming.
McGlynn might... "But he's a Gunt! And a Hun! And an ex-Smellie! And he'll relegate us on purpose!"... but few of you would accept him.
Sticking with Gray is the "percentage shot." If you accept that and still want to roll the dice, fair enough, but, by my calculations, you're being offered 7-2 about rolling seven and that's not good value... Unless you're Winston Ingram, you're skint and Nicholas Van Hoogstraten's your landlord.
