Has The Wee SNP Bubble Burst?

[Smurf]

Need to check back but i'm fairly confident that after the excellent SNP Glasgow East by-election victory in July 2008 there were lots of bold predictions of a real SNP breakthrough on here and elsewhere....

Fairly confident also that the Glasgow North-East by-election last week passed by on here without a whisper.

Pretty poor stuff that in our largest city the SNP in these times where we're supposedly on our way to Independence can't get more than 20% of the vote against a dreadful Labour British Government that gets 60%.

So has the bubble burst yet again?

 

[wee 162]

Need to check back but i'm fairly confident that after the excellent SNP Glasgow East by-election victory in July 2008 there were lots of bold predictions of a real SNP breakthrough on here and elsewhere....

Fairly confident also that the Glasgow North-East by-election last week passed by on here without a whisper.

Pretty poor stuff that in our largest city the SNP in these times where we're supposedly on our way to Independence can't get more than 20% of the vote against a dreadful Labour British Government that gets 60%.

So has the bubble burst yet again?

You were quite big last week on giving what the actual percentage of the electorate were who voted for a party. There was a turnout of one third. So Labour got about 20% of the electorate voting for them. The SNP got about 7%.

I personally wouldn't be reading too much into a by-election result that will give people an MP who will serve for around 6 months.

 

[Stirlinghibee]

Need to check back but i'm fairly confident that after the excellent SNP Glasgow East by-election victory in July 2008 there were lots of bold predictions of a real SNP breakthrough on here and elsewhere....

Fairly confident also that the Glasgow North-East by-election last week passed by on here without a whisper.

Pretty poor stuff that in our largest city the SNP in these times where we're supposedly on our way to Independence can't get more than 20% of the vote against a dreadful Labour British Government that gets 60%.

So has the bubble burst yet again?

Well, the SNP beat Labour hands down in the last national poll this year (Euro elections).

Labour have learned their lessons in bye elections however , they now follow a very effective script.

1. Dont mention the UK Labour government.
2. Use a popular local figure as a candidate.
3. Find an unpopular SNP policy , and attack it all the time (Old folks homes in Glenrothes and The rail link in the Weeg).

They were also helped this time by some pretty sympathetic coverage of Gordon Brown and the Afghan letter saga in the week before the vote.

But the proof of the pudding will come in 2011 , at our next national election.

The British one before that will see a wipe out of Labour everywhere apart form Scotland, The English inner cities and the North East of England.

 

[Smurf]

You were quite big last week on giving what the actual percentage of the electorate were who voted for a party.

True. Listen i'm not trying to champion the Labour result. I'm looking at a really pathetic SNP result.

There was a turnout of one third. So Labour got about 20% of the electorate voting for them. The SNP got about 7%.

Which makes it even worse for the SNP. 7%.... That really is pathetic stuff... However, It really is beyond me just what motivated the Labour vote in a completely meaningless by-election...

I personally wouldn't be reading too much into a by-election result that will give people an MP who will serve for around 6 months.

Me neither really... However, it does show IMHO that the notion that Independence is coming our way soon is pretty bizzare. 7%.

Surely the SNP ought to have found it easier to motivate their vote out than a tired Labour one?

 

[wee 162]

True. Listen i'm not trying to champion the Labour result. I'm looking at a really pathetic SNP result.



Which makes it even worse for the SNP. 7%.... That really is pathetic stuff... However, It really is beyond me just what motivated the Labour vote in a completely meaningless by-election...



Me neither really... However, it does show IMHO that the notion that Independence is coming our way soon is pretty bizzare. 7%.

Surely the SNP ought to have found it easier to motivate their vote out than a tired Labour one?

Nobody was bothered their arse Smurf. It's about as irrelevant an election as you can get for an MP. It's a safe seat which not in their wildest dreams would the SNP be targetting. It's a few months out from an election where resources in every party will be stretched so it's no like anyone would spend fortunes on this by-election. There's a safe Labour majority in the Commons so one extra MP isn't going to make a difference to that. And it's putting an MP into power for 6 months tops.

The SNP got a few less votes than they did in the previous election (4000 not 5000). Labour got 3000 less and 12000 total. Which is pretty close to proportional dropping down for both.

 

[Purple & Green]

I was surprised more than disappointed by last weeks result.

The electorate of Glasgow North East has been sh!t on from a great height by government after government, and their MP was forced to stand down because he was embroiled in an expenses scandal - thieving off the country, and condoning the actions of others who were thieving off the country.

Yet - they voted for more of the same. Well, you get the government you deserve.