English/Welsh council elections

Greenmachine

Private Member
Joined
Feb 22, 2004
Maybe it's me, but the results don't look to me like the predicted Labour landslide in the forthcoming General Election is as likely as the MSM and polls have been telling us.
I still think it's going to be much closer than what is being predicted.
 
Maybe it's me, but the results don't look to me like the predicted Labour landslide in the forthcoming General Election is as likely as the MSM and polls have been telling us.
I still think it's going to be much closer than what is being predicted.
Everyone a winner except tories?
 
Maybe it's me, but the results don't look to me like the predicted Labour landslide in the forthcoming General Election is as likely as the MSM and polls have been telling us.
I still think it's going to be much closer than what is being predicted.
I don’t really follow local elections so I don’t know what good and bad looks like except the libdems always seem to punch above their weight. the tories seem to have got a shoeing as far as I can see. Was it expected to be worse?

Also @moathibby where did the tories take a drubbing from the right it looks like a labour / libdem / green show to me, though I believe reform didn’t contest many seats ?
 
Maybe it's me, but the results don't look to me like the predicted Labour landslide in the forthcoming General Election is as likely as the MSM and polls have been telling us.
I still think it's going to be much closer than what is being predicted.
I reckon you're right there. If the general election results always mirrored the local ones you would have many more landside wins in general elections. The turnout will no doubt make a big difference. Probably in the minority here but local elections see,more important to me as the issues are more relevant. General election manifestos are purely poetic licence (in a legal sense more like fraud).
 
Maybe it's me, but the results don't look to me like the predicted Labour landslide in the forthcoming General Election is as likely as the MSM and polls have been telling us.
I still think it's going to be much closer than what is being predicted.
I'm not sure how you get that given the tory bastards achieved the worst set of results in at least 40 years (I read). This following record breaking defeats in recent by-elections.

There was even a recent(ish) poll suggesting the SNP could be official opposition at Westminster!

While I don't think it will be that seismic it will hopefully be enough to rip that odious party to shreds.
 
All Tory eyes will be watching to see what Farage is going to do.

His decision will be crucial I think.

But I think the demise of the torys as that are is not far off.

And they won't be missed.
 
I'm not sure how you get that given the tory bastards achieved the worst set of results in at least 40 years (I read). This following record breaking defeats in recent by-elections.

There was even a recent(ish) poll suggesting the SNP could be official opposition at Westminster!

While I don't think it will be that seismic it will hopefully be enough to rip that odious party to shreds.
Labour achieved 34% share of the vote, with the tories about 25%. If that is repeated in the GE then Labour will win with probably a majority, but that doesn't look to me anything like the sort of potential landslide territory that Blair got in 1997, which is what the polls and the media have been telling us will happen in the last year or so. Add to that Reform UK only had a few candidates in the council elections as well.

Polls always narrow before a GE, and down south the tories are often the "go to" party when the undecideds are wondering who to vote for. There doesn't seem to me to be the massive enthusiasm for Starmer and his party that there was for Blair in the mid 1990's. It looks to me also that Labour have a struggle on their hands with the huge muslim vote in the big cities in England over their stance on the war in Gaza. I think Labour will probably win the GE, i'm just not convinced it's as clear cut as the current polls are suggesting.
 
All Tory eyes will be watching to see what Farage is going to do.

His decision will be crucial I think.


But I think the demise of the torys as that are is not far off.

And they won't be missed.
Farage has probably been the most influential politician in the UK over the last 15 years.
 
Labour achieved 34% share of the vote, with the tories about 25%. If that is repeated in the GE then Labour will win with probably a majority, but that doesn't look to me anything like the sort of potential landslide territory that Blair got in 1997, which is what the polls and the media have been telling us will happen in the last year or so. Add to that Reform UK only had a few candidates in the council elections as well.

Polls always narrow before a GE, and down south the tories are often the "go to" party when the undecideds are wondering who to vote for. There doesn't seem to me to be the massive popularity for Starmer and his party that there was for Blair in the mid 1990's. It looks to me also that Labour have a struggle on their hands with the huge muslim vote in the big cities in England over their stance on the war in Gaza. I think Labour will probably win the GE, i'm just not convinced it's as clear cut as the current polls are suggesting.

Look at the swing in the Blackpool by-election. As Sir John Curtice says a Labour Government is 99% likely.

The big question is the size of the victory.

I'm actually incredulous that 25% voted for the Tories in the council elections. I suspect with Reform as an option in most GE constituencies the Tories may struggle to match that in a GE.

And no way will the Lib Dems get 17% in the GE like they did in these council elections.
 
And probably the next 15 years if he plays his cards correctly. Reform are going to be big....
Not so sure about that ,K.
Mostly disaffected Tories heading up the Reform vote.
Labour win the GE. Starmer makes no headway in the first half of his gig.Tories look to have regained some stability. Those voting Lib Dem & Reform this time revert back to their default Tory setting and bingo, its happy families in British politics once more.
Too much of a core Tory vote to obliterate them completely.
Pity.
 
Too much of a core Tory vote to obliterate them completely.
One of life's great mysteries why this should be. No matter the disaffection people may have with other parties at various times SURELY they know returning tories to government will only result in levels of unfeeling, uncaring, cost cutting misery not seen since the last time the *&*^ were in charge.
 
And probably the next 15 years if he plays his cards correctly. Reform are going to be big....
All they can do in the first instance is kill or irrevocably change the Tories. Polling had been showing them getting more votes than the LDs but not a single seat. FPTP really is a massive hurdle to get over.

But destroy the tories they may well might, and then something needs to fill the void.
 
One of life's great mysteries why this should be. No matter the disaffection people may have with other parties at various times SURELY they know returning tories to government will only result in levels of unfeeling, uncaring, cost cutting misery not seen since the last time the *&*^ were in charge.
Their core voters , I get.
Reasonably well off/ rich, middle/ upper class.
They know they're not going to suffer too much from Tory policies.
It's the working class pleb voting for them that causes my head scratch.
 
Their core voters , I get.
Reasonably well off/ rich, middle/ upper class.
They know they're not going to suffer too much from Tory policies.
It's the working class pleb voting for them that causes my head scratch.
I think their core is no longer their core as I wrote on the thread about them being destroyed.

If you’re scratching your head on the last bit, what do you consider to be the interests of the English or Welsh pleb? I don’t think anyone represents them bar Reform (and then mostly rhetorically).

The interests of the well off today are social liberalism plus economic liberalism but with an interventionist and high spending state. We aren’t a country full of industrialists who want low tax and spend. Our wealthy sorts are bankers and fund managers who want plenty of cheap credit floating about (look at the Truss episode).

New Labour was expertly targeted at them. That’s the model for party of the well to do of today, which is why they are turning to centre left parties the western world over, who are increasingly of a New Labourish type.

The right meanwhile, has become the workers party, contesting global capital, the social damage arising from liberal excess, and crime and disorder which mostly affects the plebs. It’s hard for the tories to become that for reasons given on the other thread , but they tip their hat to it rhetorically, or some of them do. They then get emptied if they try and walk the walk, because the party leadership is aligned to that new labour set of priorities. And so we have paralysis really with two very similar parties at WM, neither of whom are popular with the man on the street.

Scotland is completely different because we are not self governing and everything is displaced by Westminster as a proxy for grievances and our distance from what really makes the economic wheels turn in most countries.
 
Never say never, but British political history is littered with 'break the mould' parties that didn't.
It is. But we haven’t been at juncture like this since at least when Thatcher upended the tories, and possibly not since the end of ww1. Look around the world, this is not a British thing, it’s epochal. It’s hard for centrist dads to grapple with as it’s the end of their world view and it is scary. And it fckn is scary.
 
Their core voters , I get.
Reasonably well off/ rich, middle/ upper class.
They know they're not going to suffer too much from Tory policies.
It's the working class pleb voting for them that causes my head scratch.
Yes you're right. Isn't it sad though that regardless of wealth/social position empathy for others is an alien concept. Morally bankrupt fuckers!
 
All they can do in the first instance is kill or irrevocably change the Tories. Polling had been showing them getting more votes than the LDs but not a single seat. FPTP really is a massive hurdle to get over.

But destroy the tories they may well might, and then something needs to fill the void.
It's weird but they're deliberately targeting the Tory vote when I feel they'd do just as well if they were to target the Labour vote (who voted Boris Johnson). Makes me think that they absolutely want a Labour Government (They feel - Farage has said - the country is 'safe' with Starmer when they didn't with Corbyn) . And feel that's their best way to replace or hijack the Tory Party. They know Labour is inheriting a shit show and with huge unrealistic expectations that Labour Government will quickly become unpopular.
 
It is. But we haven’t been at juncture like this since at least when Thatcher upended the tories, and possibly not since the end of ww1. Look around the world, this is not a British thing, it’s epochal. It’s hard for centrist dads to grapple with as it’s the end of their world view and it is scary. And it fckn is scary.
SDP? Are you a 'centarist dad now?
 
Yes you're right. Isn't it sad though that regardless of wealth/social position empathy for others is an alien concept. Morally bankrupt fuckers!
What does that mean though? ‘Empathy for others’? Does suppressing the wages of the less affluent, eroding t&c, making housing unaffordable and services overwhelmed come under that banner, rising violence…. because those are the conditions that people are responding to.
 
I think their core is no longer their core as I wrote on the thread about them being destroyed.

If you’re scratching your head on the last bit, what do you consider to be the interests of the English or Welsh pleb? I don’t think anyone represents them bar Reform (and then mostly rhetorically).

The interests of the well off today are social liberalism plus economic liberalism but with an interventionist and high spending state. We aren’t a country full of industrialists who want low tax and spend. Our wealthy sorts are bankers and fund managers who want plenty of cheap credit floating about (look at the Truss episode).

New Labour was expertly targeted at them. That’s the model for party of the well to do of today, which is why they are turning to centre left parties the western world over, who are increasingly of a New Labourish type.

The right meanwhile, has become the workers party, contesting global capital, the social damage arising from liberal excess, and crime and disorder which mostly affects the plebs. It’s hard for the tories to become that for reasons given on the other thread , but they tip their hat to it rhetorically, or some of them do. They then get emptied if they try and walk the walk, because the party leadership is aligned to that new labour set of priorities. And so we have paralysis really with two very similar parties at WM, neither of whom are popular with the man on the street.

Scotland is completely different because we are not self governing and everything is displaced by Westminster as a proxy for grievances and our distance from what really makes the economic wheels turn in most countries.
All it took for the English pleb was a promise from a public schoolboy to present them with their utopia.
And he sucked them in, sucked them dry and spat them out.
And left them to the mercy of another couple of fuckwits.
 
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Never say never, but British political history is littered with 'break the mould' parties that didn't.
It isn't impossible that just like the Canadian Tories experienced we could see a complete collapse in the UK Tories.

Labour are gaining because they're the alternative. They're viewed as reasonably safe but with no enthusiasm.

There's never been a better time for a populist party.... Farage whatever anyone thinks of him is a shrewd political operator.
 
It's weird but they're deliberately targeting the Tory vote when I feel they'd do just as well if they were to target the Labour vote (who voted Boris Johnson). Makes me think that they absolutely want a Labour Government (They feel - Farage has said - the country is 'safe' with Starmer when they didn't with Corbyn) . And feel that's their best way to replace or hijack the Tory Party. They know Labour is inheriting a shit show and with huge unrealistic expectations that Labour Government will quickly become unpopular.
This is where I get confused. The belief here is that the Tories are inept and have run their course. But if that's the case then why is it seen as impossible that Labour might do better? I get the catastrophisers and people who hate Labour beat that drum. But I don't think it's a given that they fail.
 
All it took for the English pleb was a promise from a public schoolboy to present them with their utopia.
And he sucked them in, sucked them dry and spat them out.
And left them to the mercy of another couple of fuckwits.
Yup. As I’ve said before an insincere nod to their concerns was enough to win a landslide, because that was more than has been on offer for a long long time. Imagine what someone who really meant it could achieve?
 
One of life's great mysteries why this should be. No matter the disaffection people may have with other parties at various times SURELY they know returning tories to government will only result in levels of unfeeling, uncaring, cost cutting misery not seen since the last time the *&*^ were in charge.
You’re assuming the type of person voting for the tories cares about anyone else but themselves. These are folks that are comfortably well off and can still get their shopping delivered by Waitrose. They scoff at those of us that cans only afford Aldi.
 
Are you referring to my expressed preference for them? Maybe I am, I’m certainly allergic to extremists. But it’s not the centrism that dominates today.
No - I'm not proposing an SDP. I want a Labour government.
 
Their core voters , I get.
Reasonably well off/ rich, middle/ upper class.
They know they're not going to suffer too much from Tory policies.
It's the working class pleb voting for them that causes my head scratch.
Because they're aspirational for themselves and their kids. I actually quite admire the southern attitude. I have some family down south that haven't quite 'made it' in life. They look on at other family and friends who have with pride, not envy. They conclude it's through themselves that they've not 'made it'. They believe it's down to the individual and your own endeavour. They don't blame government or look to government. I wish we had a wee bit more of a similar outlook up here TBH.
 
You’re assuming the type of person voting for the tories cares about anyone else but themselves. These are folks that are comfortably well off and can still get their shopping delivered by Waitrose. They scoff at those of us that cans only afford Aldi.
It's easy to sneer, but I know older people who were dedicated working class Tories. They bought their council house, retired on good pensions and had a better life than their parents. Lovely people as they were, we didn't agree politically. But they weren't stupid and who could say the Tories didn't deliver for them?
 
It's weird but they're deliberately targeting the Tory vote when I feel they'd do just as well if they were to target the Labour vote (who voted Boris Johnson). Makes me think that they absolutely want a Labour Government (They feel - Farage has said - the country is 'safe' with Starmer when they didn't with Corbyn) . And feel that's their best way to replace or hijack the Tory Party. They know Labour is inheriting a shit show and with huge unrealistic expectations that Labour Government will quickly become unpopular.
The Tory vote they are targeting substantially was a labour vote. It had already migrated to the tories in despair, got fucked over by them, and is now the target for Reform.

I think Farage probably will be happy with a Labour victory. They want to destroy the Tories. Look at the world picture because geographically we may be an island, but we aren’t in the figurative sense. Centre left parties are becoming the party of the affluent, Reform need to clear the ground to be the opposition to that so the tories have to go as a first step.

Reform are not the answer though. They themselves are a mess of contradictions, being rammed full of Singapore on Thames sorts, which is the last thing their prospective voters want: they want a patriotic old Labour style party.
 
What does that mean though? ‘Empathy for others’? Does suppressing the wages of the less affluent, eroding t&c, making housing unaffordable and services overwhelmed come under that banner, rising violence…. because those are the conditions that people are responding to.
Yes, and maybe folk are responding to this shit show but my point was about the *&*^ being voted in again by people who don't care how others quality of life may be worsened.
 
It's easy to sneer, but I know older people who were dedicated working class Tories. They bought their council house, retired on good pensions and had a better life than their parents. Lovely people as they were, we didn't agree politically. But they weren't stupid and who could say the Tories didn't deliver for them?
I probably fit into part of that - bought house, retired on good pension and have a more comfortable life than my parents, but still believe myself to have a socialist leaning and yearn for an independent and republican Scotland.
 
This is where I get confused. The belief here is that the Tories are inept and have run their course. But if that's the case then why is it seen as impossible that Labour might do better? I get the catastrophisers and people who hate Labour beat that drum. But I don't think it's a given that they fail.
Boris Johnson did what all Labour voters want. He pumped much more money into public services.

Boris Johnson is hated by Labour voters but he was almost a socialist!

And yet things have got worse. Much worse despite huge injections of cash.

The alternative is radical reform of the public services with much more private sector involvement. And I think that's the thinking of Wes Streeting (now obviously despised by the Labour left) who has the correct (IMO) Blair outlook of judging on outcomes on healthcare from a NHS perspective.

Just like Blair though he'll be stopped by huge internal opposition and trade union opposition.

Starmers only hope of the second term he'd absolutely need is an absolute landslide.
 
Because they're aspirational for themselves and their kids. I actually quite admire the southern attitude. I have some family down south that haven't quite 'made it' in life. They look on at other family and friends who have with pride, not envy. They conclude it's through themselves that they've not 'made it'. They believe it's down to the individual and your own endeavour. They don't blame government or look to government. I wish we had a wee bit more of a similar outlook up here TBH.
I think this is out of date a bit K. More people are desperate than are aspirational. England is radically radically different than the context into which Blair arrived.

London was 80% native Londoners going in the early 90s, its a little over a third now. That level of change is absolutely mind boggling - read @Wishbone post on his exile from the London he grew up in. It’s similar in other cities. This fellow travels with suppressed earnings from an absolute deluge of inexpensive labour, and housing hopelessly oversubscribed with inevitable results.

In short, people tried aspiration and I’m not sure it worked out for them. It has created an affluent middle class left and desperation everywhere else.
 
You’re assuming the type of person voting for the tories cares about anyone else but themselves. These are folks that are comfortably well off and can still get their shopping delivered by Waitrose. They scoff at those of us that cans only afford Aldi.
Really?

Most Tories (who would all day long vote Tory but not the current mess) I know are very much working class background.

Waitrose I'm sure in north London is full of Labour voters.
 
No - I'm not proposing an SDP. I want a Labour government.
I meant was that what you meant when you suggested I was a centrist dad. The SDP are not even in the debate on government - a pimple on a flea’s nose ; irrelevant.
 
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