Eastleigh

[egb_hibs]

Are the Eastleigh results a pointer to events to come? Ukips showing surely demonstrates they can block a Tory victory at the next election. Will a coalition of a different kind be required? It perhaps suggests that while Dave was out chasing the votes of other upper class urban liberals, who are tiny in number, he's fucked off his core - and failed to win over the labour voters disenfranchised by the liberal elite, who are now turning to ukip rather than the BNP. Silly fucker.


Speaking of which, the Tristram hunt that is Tristram hunt, is surely going to be feeling a bit of a Tristram hunt after this;

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8849681/dont-count-us-out/

Sorry fella, outside regions packed with your bought and paid for client groups, you remain the party of people named things like Tristram.

 

[Smurf]

The last time the Tories won a UK election 21 years ago with a tiny majority they won this seat easily with a huge majority. They really ought to have taken this seat. The Tory European strategy failed miserably. Incredible really that the Lib Dems with their current troubles secured victory. As for Labour... Not taken seriously as Milliband E is not perceived as a serious in waiting alternative PM.

 

[egb_hibs]

The Tories have lost the plot strategically in my view. We had a thread on this recently where I marvelled at their courting of the guardian vote when farage was sitting their waiting to capitalise on what that would do to their core. In this evidence at least, this appears to be coming to pass.

It strikes me that a bunch of London liberals have misread the country in the same way their labour peers do, but unlike the latter they do not have captive voting blocks they can afford to ignore

 

[Tomsk09]

A perfect storm for the Tories. A totally unelectable candidate, who was virtually chained to a radiator in a cellar for the last two weeks of the campaign, combined with a quasi-respectable right-wing protest-vote bolthole for the racists and xenophobes and disaffected to shelter in has seen them squeezed into third place. All this despite, Cameron trying to entice his gang back into his boudoir with his promise of a EU referendum.

I wonder how Dave feels this morning -- probably like the jilted john who crashed the last of his cash on a box of chox for the bird he fancies only to see her walking round the corner arm in arm with some morally degenerate cad. Fuck him and all who sail in him.

I bet the Libs can't believe their luck.

 

[Purple & Green]

Ukips showing surely demonstrates they can block a Tory victory at the next election.

I'm unconvinced: it's one thing giving the tories a bloody nose in a by election; it's another thing entirely to translate that to significant electoral success as the SDP found out in the early 1980's - and they had significantly more support than UKIP have.

UKIP have yet to win a parliamentary seat, and their showing at the general election last time out was 3.5% of the vote in England. For sure UKIP can impact on a handful of seats that might deny the tories an overall majority, but that would ergo mean we're heading for a hung parliament again anyway.

 

[egb_hibs]

A perfect storm for the Tories. A totally unelectable candidate, who was virtually chained to a radiator in a cellar for the last two weeks of the campaign, combined with a quasi-respectable right-wing protest-vote bolthole for the racists and xenophobes and disaffected to shelter in has seen them squeezed into third place. All this despite, Cameron trying to entice his gang back into his boudoir with his promise of a EU referendum.

I wonder how Dave feels this morning -- probably like the jilted john who crashed the last of his cash on a box of chox for the bird he fancies only to see her walking round the corner arm in arm with some morally degenerate cad. Fuck him and all who sail in him.

I bet the Libs can't believe their luck.

thats the kind if thinking that will be the Tories undoing, and which is creating a growing democratic deficit generally. The narrow mindedness and arrogant prejudice of the liberal elite and their followers is disenfranchising large swathes of the populace.

Lets hope it doesn't end with guillotines.

 

[Tomsk09]

thats the kind if thinking that will be the Tories undoing, and which is creating a growing democratic deficit generally. The narrow mindedness and arrogant prejudice of the liberal elite and their followers is disenfranchising large swathes of the populace.

Lets hope it doesn't end with guillotines.

They are the BNP without the skins and tattoos. In fact, look hard enough and you will probably find that lot lurking about in the background somewhere.

Where I think they are truly dangerous is the air of respectability they give to their political position. The BNP were always tainted by association with bootboy street violence and racist graffito on council estate walls. UKIP have put suits and polished shoes on these sentiments and made it all it all cuddly and decent. In truth, if it looks like a duck ...

 

[southfieldhibby]

They are the BNP without the skins and tattoos. In fact, look hard enough and you will probably find that lot lurking about in the background somewhere.

Where I think they are truly dangerous is the air of respectability they give to their political position. The BNP were always tainted by association with bootboy street violence and racist graffito on council estate walls. UKIP have put suits and polished shoes on these sentiments and made it all it all cuddly and decent. In truth, if it looks like a duck ...

I reckon they're the political party the conservatives wish they had the bollocks to be, not the BNP, but empathising with some of their agenda.

They'll get feck all in a GE...voters are smart enough to see the difference, much like Scots when it comes to GE and the SNP.

 

[gun ainm]

thats the kind if thinking that will be the Tories undoing, and which is creating a growing democratic deficit generally. The narrow mindedness and arrogant prejudice of the liberal elite and their followers is disenfranchising large swathes of the populace.

Lets hope it doesn't end with guillotines.

I agree with the OP - Tories are going to find it very difficult to gain a majority with Cameron/Osbourne ticket but you cant dismiss the view that UKIP attracts the votes of people with xenophobic/racist tendencies as merely that of a liberal elite. Theres a significant part of 'normal society' who believe thats at least partilally true and the've not all been brainwashed into that by the BBC :rascal:

 

[egb_hibs]

There's a significant part of the
Labour vote who hold the country and its working classes in naked contempt, who hate the Jews and others, subscribe to authoritarian and doctrinaire pc and so on. Doesn't mean that most labour voters do and that that's what the party is only about.

Same with all parties, except perhaps the hard core socialist and nazis. Even there they have plenty naive dupes who are more daft than malign.

And so it is wih ukip whatever the sections of normal society ensconced in safe public funded jobs and it rarified environments may think !

 

[egb_hibs]

They are the BNP without the skins and tattoos. In fact, look hard enough and you will probably find that lot lurking about in the background somewhere.

Where I think they are truly dangerous is the air of respectability they give to their political position. The BNP were always tainted by association with bootboy street violence and racist graffito on council estate walls. UKIP have put suits and polished shoes on these sentiments and made it all it all cuddly and decent. In truth, if it looks like a duck ...

Not sure how a free market classical liberal party can be compared to socialists, but if that's how looks from within the blinkers...

 

[gun ainm]

There's a significant part of the
Labour vote who hold the country and its working classes in naked contempt, who hate the Jews and others, subscribe to authoritarian and doctrinaire pc and so on. Doesn't mean that most labour voters do and that that's what the party is only about.

Same with all parties, except perhaps the hard core socialist and nazis. Even there they have plenty naive dupes who are more daft than malign.

And so it is wih ukip whatever the sections of normal society ensconced in safe public funded jobs and it rarified environments may think !

classic egb - I don't disagree that there maybe/will be 'reasonable' UKIP voters only that you dont have to be a member of the political liberal elite to view them as the acceptable face of xenophobic/bigoted/racist voters (whatever there proportionate make up) in GB. you rage against the so called liberal elite and their offhanded contempt for ordinary people but you're quite happy to patronise those that work in the public sector most of whom (in my experience) are passionate in their aims to make ours a better society. you 're basically the same but illiberal. you are the hun to their celtc

 

[Tomsk09]

There's a significant part of the
Labour vote who hold the country and its working classes in naked contempt, who hate the Jews and others, subscribe to authoritarian and doctrinaire pc and so on. Doesn't mean that most labour voters do and that that's what the party is only about.

Same with all parties, except perhaps the hard core socialist and nazis. Even there they have plenty naive dupes who are more daft than malign.

And so it is wih ukip whatever the sections of normal society ensconced in safe public funded jobs and it rarified environments may think !

When you write this kind of stuff I'm never sure whether you are on the wind-up or really believe what you are saying. Either way, you do yourself a disservice.

 

[egb_hibs]

When you write this kind of stuff I'm never sure whether you are on the wind-up or really believe what you are saying. Either way, you do yourself a disservice.

That's priceless - ukip supporters are all skinheads with hair and nazis but the labour vote does not contain its own malcontents.

Pure prejudice T, or at least that's how it comes over. I don't know your own politic view but you echo the historical and continuing left wing tendency to regard all that disagree as mad or bad.

 

[egb_hibs]

classic egb - I don't disagree that there maybe/will be 'reasonable' UKIP voters only that you dont have to be a member of the political liberal elite to view them as the acceptable face of xenophobic/bigoted/racist voters (whatever there proportionate make up) in GB. you rage against the so called liberal elite and their offhanded contempt for ordinary people but you're quite happy to patronise those that work in the public sector most of whom (in my experience) are passionate in their aims to make ours a better society. you 're basically the same but illiberal. you are the hun to their celtc

No R, I take issue with the I'm alright jack attitude of a small privileged subset of that group who think everyone is less comfortable positions are ravening nazis for reacting to that.

Your faint praise articulation of your ukip position meanwhile, illustrates the problem. It's like saying that you realise not all labour voters are
Leeches, control freaks and fascists. Ie not an especially even handed treatment

 

[Tomsk09]

That's priceless - ukip supporters are all skinheads with hair and nazis but the labour vote does not contain its own malcontents.

Pure prejudice T, or at least that's how it comes over. I don't know your own politic view but you echo the historical and continuing left wing tendency to regard all that disagree as mad or bad.

If you are insisting on exactitude I never called them Nazis. And I didn't go anywhere near stating that the Labour party doesn't have any, to use your word, malcontents.

But I make no apologies for my polemical position on UKIP. If people conclude they are out of the same factory as the BNP they won't be far off the mark. Certainly a damn sight closer than reading them by the doubtless few deluded but decent-minded folk who are on the same bus as them and haven't yet worked out where they're all heading. And just because someone is right on one or two small things doesn't make them their views valid on the many big things that they've got wrong.

I am left of centre but very distrustful of the Labour Party and hold the Libs in the deepest contempt. Nothing would make me vote Conservative, although I am a died-in-the-wool unionist. I have not voted in a general elections since 1994. I have voted for Margo MacDonald in the last few Scottish elections. I am against extremists from both right and left. I think the UKIP party leadership is extremist. I think they are attractive to people who are mad, bad and sometimes both. I guess that makes them sort of bad in my view -- but not sure about that one. Deluded is probably better.

 

[O'Driscoll]

in a nutshell what happened in Eastleigh was that the right wing vote split. This is a real problem for the Tories as if UKIP stand candidates in marginals they will take away enough of the Tory vote to condemn them to a long period in opposition. UKIP don't have to win seats, they just have to dilute the right wing vote, even a 5% national vote would do it. Remember the Tories haven't won an election since 1992 and if they have their traditional voters backing UKIP it will have the same effect that the SDP had on the Labour vote. A dilution of the right wing vote would mean that Labour would only need about 35% of th vote to be the biggest party at the next election.

 

[egb_hibs]

The voice of reason again o'd - though I expect ukip are getting labour voters as well - the ones who don't fall into currently favoured client groups

 

[egb_hibs]

If you are insisting on exactitude I never called them Nazis. And I didn't go anywhere near stating that the Labour party doesn't have any, to use your word, malcontents.

But I make no apologies for my polemical position on UKIP. If people conclude they are out of the same factory as the BNP they won't be far off the mark. Certainly a damn sight closer than reading them by the doubtless few deluded but decent-minded folk who are on the same bus as them and haven't yet worked out where they're all heading. And just because someone is right on one or two small things doesn't make them their views valid on the many big things that they've got wrong.

I am left of centre but very distrustful of the Labour Party and hold the Libs in the deepest contempt. Nothing would make me vote Conservative, although I am a died-in-the-wool unionist. I have not voted in a general elections since 1994. I have voted for Margo MacDonald in the last few Scottish elections. I am against extremists from both right and left. I think the UKIP party leadership is extremist. I think they are attractive to people who are mad, bad and sometimes both. I guess that makes them sort of bad in my view -- but not sure about that one. Deluded is probably better.

I'm sure ukip have some racist voters but I doubt the proportion is larger than any other party. They do not compare to bnp - I for one can conceive of voting ukip and I would never vote bnp, being neither a racist nor a socialist

That would not be through any enthusiasm for ukip - but because I feel disenfranchised by the main parties.

 

[O'Driscoll]

The voice of reason again o'd - though I expect ukip are getting labour voters as well - the ones who don't fall into currently favoured client groups

They are picking up Labour votes, yes especially in places like Eastleigh, where Labour have no chance, the core Social democrat voter in the marginal Labour seat will probably stay Labour as they have a hatred of the Tories and the Libs will collapse in these seats. Like I say the right wing vote will dilute and it is the Tories, who need to gain seats that will suffer.

 

[aggie]

It perhaps suggests that while Dave was out chasing the votes of other upper class urban liberals, who are tiny in number

the party of people named things like Tristram.

courting of the guardian vote

There's a significant part of the
Labour vote who hold the country and its working classes in naked contempt, who hate the Jews and others, subscribe to authoritarian and doctrinaire pc and so on.

You bang on about it so much, I'm interested to know - how exactly do you quantify this 'urban liberal elite' you purport?

Is it predicated on income - eg everyone who earns 40k+?

Is it predicated on living in a certain area of London - St John's Wood, perhaps?

Is it predicated on your choice of newspaper - ie those who enjoy reading Will Hutton, Polly Toynbee, et al?

Or is it predicated on being virtually any politician plying their trade in Westminster?

I only ask, because I have to be honest you harp on it so often and in such pejorative terms, that it sounds a lot to me like run-of-the-mill, garden-variety inverse snobbery. That is to say, in your eyes anyone who went to private school, reads the Guardian, has dinner parties or shops in Habitat is inherently a venal, vacuous social climber who by definition is incapable of having any kind of social conscience beyond faddish political correctness.

And that's the worst kind of snobbery there is.

 

[Kurt]

The Tories have lost the plot strategically in my view. We had a thread on this recently where I marvelled at their courting of the guardian vote when farage was sitting their waiting to capitalise on what that would do to their core. In this evidence at least, this appears to be coming to pass.

It strikes me that a bunch of London liberals have misread the country in the same way their labour peers do, but unlike the latter they do not have captive voting blocks they can afford to ignore

I think all the main parties are utterly disconnected with the public. UKIP are a shower of freaks who are disconnected with the 21st century but unless there is a "none of the above" box to tick on the ballot paper, they will pick up votes from those discontents that feel they should turn up and vote at all.

 

[egb_hibs]

You bang on about it so much, I'm interested to know - how exactly do you quantify this 'urban liberal elite' you purport?

Is it predicated on income - eg everyone who earns 40k+?

Is it predicated on living in a certain area of London - St John's Wood, perhaps?

Is it predicated on your choice of newspaper - ie those who enjoy reading Will Hutton, Polly Toynbee, et al?

Or is it predicated on being virtually any politician plying their trade in Westminster?

I only ask, because I have to be honest you harp on it so often and in such pejorative terms, that it sounds a lot to me like run-of-the-mill, garden-variety inverse snobbery. That is to say, in your eyes anyone who went to private school, reads the Guardian, has dinner parties or shops in Habitat is inherently a venal, vacuous social climber who by definition is incapable of having any kind of social conscience beyond faddish political correctness.

And that's the worst kind of snobbery there is.

I would have thought it rather obvious, and it's been defined ad nauseum, by me here, and by endless others in the wider world. I don't know why gun ainm is dutifully liking away as he and i must have gone over this a million times.

We are talking about the establishment - the media classes, the education establishment, the state's senior bureaucrats, the advertising execs, the state and corporate supported artists, the writers, the captains of industry, the lawyers etc.

It's not about wealth, it's about influence. That said, these people are rarely poor, as their influence means that things are run in their interest, at least as far as the state can influence anything.

Oh and it's not snobbery; I hold these people accountable for inflicting grievous damage on our society and it's less fortunate members in particular. They are my class enemy. :pf:

 

[egb_hibs]

I think all the main parties are utterly disconnected with the public. UKIP are a shower of freaks who are disconnected with the 21st century but unless there is a "none of the above" box to tick on the ballot paper, they will pick up votes from those discontents that feel they should turn up and vote at all.

What makes you say that UKIP are disconnected from the 21st century? I suspect this is because all the foghorns of the establishment pretend they somehow represent a future, in which ordinary people who do not fit, are somehow relics. In reality, as has been the subject of a thousand threads, the opposite is self evidently true. Those ostracised in this way are relentlessly proved right, while the established view belongs to a pre 2001, pre 2003, pre 2008 world. One that has come to look old fashioned with remarkable speed.

The fogeyish may not be able to detect it yet, but times they are definitely a changin, K.

 

[greencol]

The last time the Tories won a UK election 21 years ago with a tiny majority they won this seat easily with a huge majority. They really ought to have taken this seat. The Tory European strategy failed miserably. Incredible really that the Lib Dems with their current troubles secured victory. As for Labour... Not taken seriously as Milliband E is not perceived as a serious in waiting alternative PM.

By the look of this, they were aiming at the same voters 21 years on.

http://news.google.co.uk/news/url?ct2=uk%2F2_0_s_0_1_a&sa=t&usg=AFQjCNGhDZdEmirkTXH1362DCptBclebuA&cid=43982005474266&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.spectator.co.uk%2Fcoffeehouse%2F2013%2F03%2Fwe-called-quite-a-few-dead-people-how-the-tories-lack-of-data-let-them-down-in-eastleigh%2F&ei=jz4yUZC7MJGX8gOufg&rt=HOMEPAGE&vm=STANDARD&bvm=section&did=4670983753300584917&sid=en_uk-n&ssid=n

 

[Johnny Vegas]

I sure as hell have found out a lot about Eastleigh these last few days.