5 points

Kenny

Private Member
Joined
Feb 8, 2003
Labour slashes Tory lead to just five points in latest poll taken this week | The Independent

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/are-tories-losing-ground-or-regaining-it/

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polling is polling but something to keep an eye on all the same.
 

While I think a Tory landslide remains likely, as I've said before I wouldn't rule out another unforeseen result in these brittle times. It would certainly be interesting!

Jezza is having a better campaign than May, which is a remarkable achievement by the latter!
 
While I think a Tory landslide remains likely, as I've said before I wouldn't rule out another unforeseen result in these brittle times. It would certainly be interesting!

Jezza is having a better campaign than May, which is a remarkable achievement by the latter!

while i agree, my expectation is a tory landslide, i do wonder where the line of success for May is? would she remain leader with only 10 seat majority? or a 20 seat majority.

given the reason for the election was to strengthen her hand - if her hand isnt strengthen sufficiently i cant see her holding the conservative party together.... she hates her brexit minister....her brexit minister hates her
 
while i agree, my expectation is a tory landslide, i do wonder where the line of success for May is? would she remain leader with only 10 seat majority? or a 20 seat majority.

given the reason for the election was to strengthen her hand - if her hand isnt strengthen sufficiently i cant see her holding the conservative party together.... she hates her brexit minister....her brexit minister hates her

She has to be severely weakened if she doesn't come out of it substantially better off than when she went in.

She's committed some startling own goals in pissing of the grey haired vote and it wouldn't surprise me if the British 'trump vote' turns out for jezza in larger numbers than expected. Alternatively we could be seeing the biggest example yet of polling having a labour bias (in what it shows rather than motives of pollsters).
 
https://soundcloud.com/user-955535145/ashcroft-election-tour-week-4

not saying i agree or disagree with any of this - but it is healthy to listen to opinions

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She has to be severely weakened if she doesn't come out of it substantially better off than when she went in.

She's committed some startling own goals in pissing of the grey haired vote and it wouldn't surprise me if the British 'trump vote' turns out for jezza in larger numbers than expected. Alternatively we could be seeing the biggest example yet of polling having a labour bias (in what it shows rather than motives of pollsters).

yep polling gives candidates credibility in the FPTP system...
 
Labour has had an OK campaign but the Tories a shocker. Really on police numbers alone a decent opposition would destroy May.
 
Could Jezza do it?!!

I would LOVE to see it, if only to witness the biggest "How'd you like me NOW?" moment in recorded history!

And to see the look on that **** May's face, among others.


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if (and its a big IF) that poll is right then we're looking at a better result for Labour than last time which is pretty incredible - GE2015 results had a 6.5% gap between Tory and Lab - not sure what that might mean in seats but tory majority (not including DUP support and SF absentees) is only what 11 currently? keep in mind they were neck and neck in the polls last time however.

momentum (small m) can be a huge thing 2 weeks before the poll opens - feels as though it might just be there to play for.

I still expect Theresa to win but I also now think she might lose as well (not no 10 but her desired strong mandate).
 
Could Jezza do it?!!

I would LOVE to see it, if only to witness the biggest "How'd you like me NOW?" moment in recorded history!

And to see the look on that **** May's face, among others.


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Could Jezza do it?!!

I would LOVE to see it, if only to witness the biggest "How'd you like me NOW?" moment in recorded history!

And to see the look on that **** May's face, among others.


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It would be funny as fuck (genuinely). Followed by Greek style collapse, which would take the shine off things.
 
Corbs appeal is definitely to the young of mind.

Come on, M - did anything ever change for the good without a bit of youthful idealism pushing it on?


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Come on, M - did anything ever change for the good without a bit of youthful idealism pushing it on?


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Reverse the question and you'd be closer to the mark. You may want to Google the historical correlation between youth bulges and carnage, the ascent of totalitarianism and other utopian mayhem.

On a less dramatic more, the simplistic paternalist vision offered by the likes of corbyn has an obvious appeal to those who are only beginning to grapple with the complexities of the world and are used to mum and dad providing the answers and the handouts. Call it idealism if you like but it doesn't mean it's conducive to any ideal outcome!
 
Reverse the question and you'd be closer to the mark. You may want to Google the historical correlation between youth bulges and carnage, the ascent of totalitarianism and other utopian mayhem.

On a less dramatic more, the simplistic paternalist vision offered by the likes of corbyn has an obvious appeal to those who are only beginning to grapple with the complexities of the world and are used to mum and dad providing the answers and the handouts. Call it idealism if you like but it doesn't mean it's conducive to any ideal outcome!

Okay, fair comment. I'm an optimistic fucker, though. I'd be hoping that some grownups would have to rock up and try and make it work!


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Could Jezza do it?!!

I would LOVE to see it, if only to witness the biggest "How'd you like me NOW?" moment in recorded history!

And to see the look on that **** May's face, among others.


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Why do you think May is a ****?

Genuinely interested!
 
Okay, fair comment. I'm an optimistic $#@!er, though. I'd be hoping that some grownups would have to rock up and try and make it work!


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And you hope to find these, where, in a corbyn adminstration?!
 
Why do you think May is a ****?

Genuinely interested!

Because I feel that she's a cowardly, mendacious charlatan, with little conviction of her own, and not a shred of actual concern for anyone who's not in her tent pissing out.

And you hope to find these, where, in a corbyn adminstration?!

*folds arms, turns away, goes in huff*


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Reverse the question and you'd be closer to the mark. You may want to Google the historical correlation between youth bulges and carnage, the ascent of totalitarianism and other utopian mayhem.

On a less dramatic more, the simplistic paternalist vision offered by the likes of corbyn has an obvious appeal to those who are only beginning to grapple with the complexities of the world and are used to mum and dad providing the answers and the handouts. Call it idealism if you like but it doesn't mean it's conducive to any ideal outcome!

never mind votes for 16 year olds we should disenfranchise those under 40? 50?

last youth bulge would be the babyboomers I suppose? if only the 60s had never happened eh? women would still be housewives, minorities would know their place, and Britain would rule the waves... but instead we got utopian mayhem.

I'm with Aggie and the kids - we need more optimism in the world we need new ideas and energy we need to let our kids have a voice. Granny can come along too.

(^^ is not to say Corbyn is my preferred agent for change by a long way but he is - in my view - far more preferable to May)
 
never mind votes for 16 year olds we should disenfranchise those under 40? 50?

last youth bulge would be the babyboomers I suppose? if only the 60s had never happened eh? women would still be housewives, minorities would know their place, and Britain would rule the waves... but instead we got utopian mayhem.

I'm with Aggie and the kids - we need more optimism in the world we need new ideas and energy we need to let our kids have a voice. Granny can come along too.

(^^ is not to say Corbyn is my preferred agent for change by a long way but he is - in my view - far more preferable to May)

Oh ffs. You really are old before your time R, cleaved to the myopic fascination with a fleeting golden age that never really existed, even as big history returns to the world with a vengeance. Maybe we could do with some more young blood at the ballot box, although you resemble one of those old granny's deferring to their grandkids grasp of the modern world!

Leaving aside the fact those kids have been shafted by the output of the boomer spring, and that the truly progressive changes of the 60s were achieved by their middle aged parents (e.g. Black emancipation in the US) i rather more had in mind the correlation of youth bulges with political violence, devastating warfare and social collapse, and totalitarianism ascending. Even in our day it's a significant factor in middle eastern mayhem and jihadism and is a perennial factor in Africa countries inability to escape national adolescence. None of this is on the cards at the GE but there is zero grounds for the improbable belief that youth correlates with political wisdom - but then few who seek their votes believe that it does, it's their naievete they cherish.

I'm not sure you and Aggie are aligned at all but that's for him to say; I think the hard left, the hard right, and to a lesser extent the centre left, rely on that naïveté and deference to win support with simplistic emotional appeal, for a childish worldview and for state paternalism - that is why they press for ever younger voters, and the first of those criteria is why labour were undone by their own game with Indy.
 
Oh ffs. You really are old before your time R, cleaved to the myopic fascination with a fleeting golden age that never really existed, even as big history returns to the world with a vengeance. Maybe we could do with some more young blood at the ballot box, although you resemble one of those old granny's deferring to their grandkids grasp of the modern world!

Leaving aside the fact those kids have been shafted by the output of the boomer spring, and that the truly progressive changes of the 60s were achieved by their middle aged parents (e.g. Black emancipation in the US) i rather more had in mind the correlation of youth bulges with political violence, devastating warfare and social collapse, and totalitarianism ascending. Even in our day it's a significant factor in middle eastern mayhem and jihadism and is a perennial factor in Africa countries inability to escape national adolescence. None of this is on the cards at the GE but there is zero grounds for the improbable belief that youth correlates with political wisdom - but then few who seek their votes believe that it does, it's their naievete they cherish.

I'm not sure you and Aggie are aligned at all but that's for him to say; I think the hard left, the hard right, and to a lesser extent the centre left, rely on that naïveté and deference to win support with simplistic emotional appeal, for a childish worldview and for state paternalism - that is why they press for ever younger voters, and the first of those criteria is why labour were undone by their own game with Indy.

My sole point above is that the last bulge of youth in the west did not result in dystopian mayhem and your claimed correlation on that looks far from strong. I welcome all generations involved in politics and I wouldn't seek to describe the youth vote as a homogeneous mass of ill considered, naive and dangerous views. I generally find that generalisations are worthless.

If others choose an optimistic path of change from the status quo, aligned with the generational poll above then I am with them on that at least. Not claiming anything more than that,,,,

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Will be amazed if you don't think the same.

I won't :lookaround:
 
Will be amazed if you don't think the same.

I don't! I think she's a bit of a non entity. She has no charisma. I think she's liked and respected because there's a misguided belief that she'll 'get the job done'.

I'm no fan but I can't see her as a ****.
 
Oh ffs. You really are old before your time R, cleaved to the myopic fascination with a fleeting golden age that never really existed, even as big history returns to the world with a vengeance. Maybe we could do with some more young blood at the ballot box, although you resemble one of those old granny's deferring to their grandkids grasp of the modern world!

Leaving aside the fact those kids have been shafted by the output of the boomer spring, and that the truly progressive changes of the 60s were achieved by their middle aged parents (e.g. Black emancipation in the US) i rather more had in mind the correlation of youth bulges with political violence, devastating warfare and social collapse, and totalitarianism ascending. Even in our day it's a significant factor in middle eastern mayhem and jihadism and is a perennial factor in Africa countries inability to escape national adolescence. None of this is on the cards at the GE but there is zero grounds for the improbable belief that youth correlates with political wisdom - but then few who seek their votes believe that it does, it's their naievete they cherish.

I'm not sure you and Aggie are aligned at all but that's for him to say; I think the hard left, the hard right, and to a lesser extent the centre left, rely on that naïveté and deference to win support with simplistic emotional appeal, for a childish worldview and for state paternalism - that is why they press for ever younger voters, and the first of those criteria is why labour were undone by their own game with Indy.

Be interested to know where you feel you sit?
 
Be interested to know where you feel you sit?

I sit with experience. You get daft old folk and insightful young folk, but inevitably the average person better understands the world and it works, as they experience more of it. I therefore think it's deeply silly to put youth on a pedestal in respect of political wisdom, precisely because of inexperience.

Now if it's innovative ideas you want, then the young have a huge role to play, but boy do those need a counterweight; not least when they are gravitate towards the most backward looking, anti innovation and reactionary ideas through emotional messaging one notch up in sophistication from Facebook emoting.

Everyone has their place and an equal vote in our democracy, which is how it should be. But one has to be sceptical of political fagins who make a specific point of trying to marshall the very young.

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That's unfair - or maybe fair in an unintended way. The bold smurf may be exhibit the authoritarian inclinations of his centre left positioning but he's never, that I recall, exhibited the in built contempt for others of the harder left. You may see smurf strongly disagree with corbyn or nats but he doesn't go around decrying them as ****s. As in the wider world, that sort of thing is generally the preserve of those further left (and in the wider world, also the far right).
 
That's unfair - or maybe fair in an unintended way. The bold smurf may be exhibit the authoritarian inclinations of his centre left positioning but he's never, that I recall, exhibited the in built contempt for others of the harder left. You may see smurf strongly disagree with corbyn or nats but he doesn't go around decrying them as ****s. As in the wider world, that sort of thing is generally the preserve of those further left (and in the wider world, also the far right).

youre probably right its unfair, i don't know Smurf from Adam and fora like these are never a good way to really judge a person. from his posts though i think he may want May to win rather than Corbyn (along with many labour grandees).

in general terms i have no qualms about calling ****s like May, Gove et al ****s, i'd call Abbott a **** an all mind. I am contemptuous of many people and thats both a strength and a weakness in my view. I love all bouncers tho (well except maybe the would be baby murdering ones but there are always exceptions) Stick me in yer pigeon hole if you must =)
 
youre probably right its unfair, i don't know Smurf from Adam and fora like these are never a good way to really judge a person. from his posts though i think he may want May to win rather than Corbyn (along with many labour grandees).

in general terms i have no qualms about calling ****s like May, Gove et al ****s, i'd call Abbott a **** an all mind. I am contemptuous of many people and thats both a strength and a weakness in my view. I love all bouncers tho (well except maybe the would be baby murdering ones but there are always exceptions) Stick me in yer pigeon hole if you must =)

I think the first duty of any government is to protect its citizens from any external threat. The second is to have as secure an economy as possible.

On the first if ISIS gunmen were on the rampage Corbyn wouldn't order shoot to kill. He'd choose more deaths of innocents rather than killing the perpetrators.

On the second he'd totally fuck the economy. I'm really not up for seeing millions lose their jobs. And I'm not up for either a fucked economy leading to austerity like nothing we've experienced on the say so of the IMF.

So I'm afraid yes I'd take May over Corbyn.
 
On the first if ISIS gunmen were on the rampage Corbyn wouldn't order shoot to kill. He'd choose more deaths of innocents rather than killing the perpetrators.

.

Is that the sole decision of the PM? They decide police policy? I would hope that the decision of shooting folk is made by the trained officer at the scene based on experience and training.

This constant agenda against corbyn being soft on crime- but in bed with the provos- reeks of right wing smearing.

The more I read about the labour manifesto, the dire state of the tories and attitude specifically towards corbyn from folk I generally hold in contempt is pushing me to vote Labour.
 
Is that the sole decision of the PM? They decide police policy? I would hope that the decision of shooting folk is made by the trained officer at the scene based on experience and training.

This constant agenda against corbyn being soft on crime- but in bed with the provos- reeks of right wing smearing.

The more I read about the labour manifesto, the dire state of the tories and attitude specifically towards corbyn from folk I generally hold in contempt is pushing me to vote Labour.

I agree with your comments relating to his talking with Sinn Fein. I don't see the issue to be honest.
 
I agree with your comments relating to his talking with Sinn Fein. I don't see the issue to be honest.

And your contention about him ordering shoot to kill? Do you think that's something within his powers as PM? I don't. That's a decision for the armed police officer on the ground, wouldn't you agree?
 
youre probably right its unfair, i don't know Smurf from Adam and fora like these are never a good way to really judge a person. from his posts though i think he may want May to win rather than Corbyn (along with many labour grandees).

in general terms i have no qualms about calling ****s like May, Gove et al ****s, i'd call Abbott a **** an all mind. I am contemptuous of many people and thats both a strength and a weakness in my view. I love all bouncers tho (well except maybe the would be baby murdering ones but there are always exceptions) Stick me in yer pigeon hole if you must =)

I just find it funny that those on the hard left obsess about perceived slights to abstract categories (race, gender, whatevs) and yet seem so easily contemptuous of actual people.

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Is that the sole decision of the PM? They decide police policy? I would hope that the decision of shooting folk is made by the trained officer at the scene based on experience and training.

This constant agenda against corbyn being soft on crime- but in bed with the provos- reeks of right wing smearing.

The more I read about the labour manifesto, the dire state of the tories and attitude specifically towards corbyn from folk I generally hold in contempt is pushing me to vote Labour.

Pretty sure if a would-be tory pm had form with the UVF, fascist groups, and Christian fundamentalists, s/he would be copping more than Corbs.
 
I think the first duty of any government is to protect its citizens from any external threat. The second is to have as secure an economy as possible.

On the first if ISIS gunmen were on the rampage Corbyn wouldn't order shoot to kill. He'd choose more deaths of innocents rather than killing the perpetrators.

On the second he'd totally $#@! the economy. I'm really not up for seeing millions lose their jobs. And I'm not up for either a $#@!ed economy leading to austerity like nothing we've experienced on the say so of the IMF.

So I'm afraid yes I'd take May over Corbyn.


we have different priorities - for me the first job of the govt is to govern with the aim of enabling a better society. security is but one part of that. Corbyn therefore wins clearly to my mind - his manifesto is about positive change, May's is bleak with little vision. If i lived in England i'd be voting Labour for the first time since 1997 (and the 97 vote would have been a culmination of anti-tory angst rather than an endorsement of Blair)
 
I just find it funny that those on the hard left obsess about perceived slights to abstract categories (race, gender, whatevs) and yet seem so easily contemptuous of actual people.

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Pretty sure if a would-be tory pm had form with the UVF, fascist groups, and Christian fundamentalists, s/he would be copping more than Corbs.

Seems to get a pretty easy ride in relative terms with the Saudi deals, a fairy fundamentalist House of bams, sponsors of terrorists and home to every 9/11 terrorist. And fairly sure Thatcher had a direct line to UDA/UVF death squads in the 80s?
 
Seems to get a pretty easy ride in relative terms with the Saudi deals
Which is not in any way comparable - I'm pretty sure Corbs is the only current party leader who openly admires dictatorships versus recognising political realities
a fairy fundamentalist House of bams, sponsors of terrorists and home to every 9/11 terrorist.
does this mean you're in favour of getting into it with the bams we haven't got into it with, but not the ones we have? or do you want to see an all out war?
And fairly sure Thatcher had a direct line to UDA/UVF death squads in the 80s?
The 80s are 30 years ago. I think my prior post is accurate, and I don't think you could really disagree...if you can lets stick with that rather than things which don't compare.
 
And your contention about him ordering shoot to kill? Do you think that's something within his powers as PM? I don't. That's a decision for the armed police officer on the ground, wouldn't you agree?

In a hostage situation I'd imagine the Home Secretary/PM would have input?
 
I sit with experience. You get daft old folk and insightful young folk, but inevitably the average person better understands the world and it works, as they experience more of it. I therefore think it's deeply silly to put youth on a pedestal in respect of political wisdom, precisely because of inexperience.

Now if it's innovative ideas you want, then the young have a huge role to play, but boy do those need a counterweight; not least when they are gravitate towards the most backward looking, anti innovation and reactionary ideas through emotional messaging one notch up in sophistication from Facebook emoting.

Everyone has their place and an equal vote in our democracy, which is how it should be. But one has to be sceptical of political fagins who make a specific point of trying to marshall the very young.

Fair do's. FWIW I find myself agreeing with a lot more of your posts than I did when I joined the bounce 10+ years ago. Not sure what to read into that, or whether it's a good or a bad thing TBH! :giggle:
 
Fair do's. FWIW I find myself agreeing with a lot more of your posts than I did when I joined the bounce 10+ years ago. Not sure what to read into that, or whether it's a good or a bad thing TBH! :giggle:

Pah...Eeeeg has just systematically ground you down over the years.

Resistance is futile
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