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Ukraine.

Westside Green

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Cannon fodder.
The danger now is the staged referendums. Of course the results will favour Russia and Putin may well threaten a nuclear response should these new parts of the motherland be attacked.
Sadly he is batshit crazy enough to do so, and some of his chums seem even more keen on destroying the planet than he is.
Sad times.
You could be right as I don't see a way out that Putin will find acceptable. We've just got to hope somebody takes him out.
 
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Stu

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Fantastic to hear that the Newark lad, Aiden Aslin, Shaun Pinner and others have been released today and are safely on their way back to home soil. Rumours were still abound just yesterday that they may already have been executed as they were condemned to be. Can't even imagine what nightmares they and their families back home must have been living through.

Newark man Aiden Aslin released by Russia and will return to UK

In other news tonight, with some heavy anti-war protesting going on in Russia, particularly in Moscow and St Petersburg, many appear to be trying to escape possible conscription by heading for the Georgian border.
 

moathibby

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The demonstrations in places like Moscow against the war are only going to grow.Putin's next tactic is send prisoners to the front and threaten a nuclear attack.He's becoming more and more desperate.I can't see it lsting.The trickle of dissent will grow into a stream.
 

Beagle

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The demonstrations in places like Moscow against the war are only going to grow.Putin's next tactic is send prisoners to the front and threaten a nuclear attack.He's becoming more and more desperate.I can't see it lsting.The trickle of dissent will grow into a stream.
For Putin it’s about not losing face now. Beware the last desperate throws of the dice of a nuclear armed dictatorship.
 

Wishbone

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You could be right as I don't see a way out that Putin will find acceptable. We've just got to hope somebody takes him out.
He seems to have "sidelined" most of those who have spoken out against the war - so I expect it would be getting harder each day to get anywhere near him. Anyone attempting a coup/assassination would need to be very, very sure of success.
 

Davy

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I think it is going one of two ways now. Either the madman will step up the missiles, though whether he will use nuclear I am not so sure. If he uses cruise missiles as he has been they are pretty expensive and do not a lot except bring buildings and infrastructure down. He might use the thermal bombs on the front line. But I actually think he is more likely to be ousted soon. The cost in manpower, money and business is something I cannot see him surviving over. Remember they moved out of Afghanastan because of 14k deaths. Right now Ukraine claim to have killed over 55k troops and about a fifth to a quarter of their total vehicles. Even if they recruit. how much equipment are they prepared to lose? There will be little to equip the new troops with. It is clear now that Russia realise this is a war even though many are still believing their media about Nazis. However it is one thing to support a war and another to fight in it and the vehicles trying to get out of Russia show that there is also going to be a mass drain on workers in Russia.

Some clues to the end game could be showing up in the fact that prisoner exchanges are happening. Perhaps it is more important now that Russia try to cover up the casualty list by returning prisoners. It was barely mentioned but at least 5 of the released Ukranians were high ranking officers in the Azov battalion, and they like the foreign troops were all sentenced to death. Yet there does not seem to be an appetite yet for executions. Rather prisoners are used as leverage and Medvedez was released to Russia in a high profile exchange likely for the Azov commanders.

Russia will most likely try to consolidate the Donbas and Crimea and declare victory. Ukraine however appear unlikely to allow them to live there peaceably and unless Biden decides enough is enough and tells Ukraine they will not provide more weapons without a deal being stuck then Ukraine will continue to harass Russia in the Donbas and Crimea. Biden though appears to sense blood and is happy to keep the Ukranians well supplied and allow them to decide their own terms. The war is certainly expensive for USA financially but they are not losing their armoury and more importantly they are not losing troops. I imagine Biden is happy to see Russia being depleted militarily, in manpower and financially.

If Putin decided to go nuclear then there is little we can do but wait and see what the West does. I listened to Jordan Peterson interview today and he said it is well possible there could be a strategic nuclear strike and he believed Biden might not respond because there is nothing for the West to gain.

I think there will be people within Russia who eventually will put pressure on to remove him. And the answer could lie in a military coup..though I have my doubts if the military is even organised enough to do that.
 

bigmanandy

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He seems to have "sidelined" most of those who have spoken out against the war - so I expect it would be getting harder each day to get anywhere near him. Anyone attempting a coup/assassination would need to be very, very sure of success.
Yup more and more mysteriously falling down stairs out of windows at the slightest questioning of Putin.
 

Davy

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Referendums to go ahead over the weekend in four Ukrainian regions for integration into the Russian Federation (Donbass regions, Kherson, and zaporozhye).

The mobilisation will only call up reservists who have already served and have the necessary military expertise.

Although not covered in Putin's speech the Russian government has now expanded the recruitment of foreign fighters into their army, so it will be interesting to see if we'll see the likes of Syrian, Iranian, Venezuelan or North Korean troops showing up.

Recently Russia has started to use "kamikaze drones" from Iran which are causing significant damage due to the difficulty in defending against them.

It will be interesting how they use these troops, I assume they will have learned from the disastrous gung ho approach of March.

Also what will be interesting to see is if the integration of the four regions into Russia (accepted by Russia and a few radio rental states of course..) will change their approach to defending / attacking them.
Some of these wonderful kamakazi drones are being utilised to hit residential houses and boats etc. But they could be an issue, however a company Israel have just agreed to supply Ukraine with anti-drones to fight against these. An unnamed Israeli company will supply them through Poland.
 

moathibby

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I still think the answer lies in the Russian populace and not coups or assasinations.
 

Davy

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Another Russian Mi-8 helicopter shot down tonight
 

Davy

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I still think the answer lies in the Russian populace and not coups or assasinations.
I agree..but I think the military needs to also be persuaded this isn't going well
 

Doc Shrink

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I agree..but I think the military needs to also be persuaded this isn't going well
It’s not going badly for them though.

Cannon fodder getting lacerated but the professionals are going home in stolen cars loaded with washing machines and fridges.
 

Davy

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It’s not going badly for them though.

Cannon fodder getting lacerated but the professionals are going home in stolen cars loaded with washing machines and fridges.
On the face of it yes I agree to a lot of that and I suspect many troops will be held back in Russia to defend the Motherland. A lot of troops are just cannon fodder, particularly those "recruited" from the occupied areas and other poorer areas of Russia. But they have also lost a lot of colonels and generals and I suspect a whole bunch of pilots who do not come cheap and other skilled workers like engineers and computer programmers for their radars and precision guided missiles. The reports coming through just now on the Beeb show that many people who are being conscripted do not even have military experience which they claimed these people would not be called up. There is also people being arrested at protests only to be then handed call up papers and there is a loophole in the new policy that could actually see one million being called up rather than the 300k mentioned.
 

Doc Shrink

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On the face of it yes I agree to a lot of that and I suspect many troops will be held back in Russia to defend the Motherland. A lot of troops are just cannon fodder, particularly those "recruited" from the occupied areas and other poorer areas of Russia. But they have also lost a lot of colonels and generals and I suspect a whole bunch of pilots who do not come cheap and other skilled workers like engineers and computer programmers for their radars and precision guided missiles. The reports coming through just now on the Beeb show that many people who are being conscripted do not even have military experience which they claimed these people would not be called up. There is also people being arrested at protests only to be then handed call up papers and there is a loophole in the new policy that could actually see one million being called up rather than the 300k mentioned.
I’m at the stage now that I wouldn’t eat a Russian salad.

Visiting Russia was on my wish list, but no more.
 
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barney

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I’m at the stage now that I wouldn’t eat a Russian salad.

Visiting Russia was on my wish list, but no more.
You should reconsider.
I’ve been 3 times. Fantastic place
 

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