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Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

Jack

Bounce Radge
I was looking at the worldmeter site and I can't say I'm impressed with the UKs position.

Total cases we're in the top 10 in the world
New cases we're second after USA
Total deaths 5th
New deaths second after USA

Total tests 11th - just short of 200,000
Tests per million of the population 51st

Baring in mind mass testing is a critical part of any exit strategy that only leaves about 66,600,000 left to test!
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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Feel a bit sorry for Scottish people couped up in wee hooses who get stick for going down to their local park for a walk.😥

This was european airspace this morning with London as always chocca.🤔

Fair play to Italy🇮🇹 though.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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The number of people in Scottish hospitals being treated for Covid-19 in Intensive Care Units (ICU's including ventilators) is highly significant and very accurate as its real time information and easy to measure.

Death stats have a time lag and are variable depending on methods and registration as well as being very distasteful.😥

So by looking at ICU's occupancy you can get a good overall picture.

Scotland has 585 ICU's beds hence the Health boards are comfortably on top of the situation. They must be close to their target of quadrupoling them since the crisis started.👍✔

Seemingly number given was that Scotland has 321 ICU beds unoccupied which gives rise to help Northern English regions if required and feasible.

There is also a very possible leveling off of the number of patients being admitted to ICU's so we can maybe at least see the peak of the mountain even though not arrived their yet.

In both cases though its early days yet and to early to draw conclusions.🤔
 
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Rocky

Bounce Radge
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The number of people in Scottish hospitals being treated for Covid-19 in Intensive Care Units (ICU's) is highly significant and very accurate as its real time information and easy to measure.

Death stats have a time lag and are variable depending on methods and registration as well as being very distasteful.😥

So by looking at ICU's occupancy you can get a good overall picture.

Scotland has between 300 heading towards 500 ICU's hence the Health boards are comfortably on top of the situation.✔

There is also a very possible leveling off of the number of patients being admitted to ICU's so we can at least see the peak of the mountain even though not arrived their yet.

In both cases though its early days yet and to early to draw conclusions.🤔
That's a really interesting one and whilst, as you say, it's early to draw conclusions, it does look like the rate of growth has slowed. It would be interesting to see the reasons for the movement too though, i.e. have new ICU admissions dropped, or are we seeing that there is now starting to be a turnover of people recovering to the extent that they can move from ICU to lower dependency wards. Can't say I've seen those stats anywhere.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
That's a really interesting one and whilst, as you say, it's early to draw conclusions, it does look like the rate of growth has slowed. It would be interesting to see the reasons for the movement too though, i.e. have new ICU admissions dropped, or are we seeing that there is now starting to be a turnover of people recovering to the extent that they can move from ICU to lower dependency wards. Can't say I've seen those stats anywhere.
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This is the number of people in hospital being treated for Covid 19(excluding Intensive Care Units) and again it looks positive as there is no great spike of new admissions though there must be some movement from ICU to low dependency as you say.✔.

Again its very early doors.🤔

Scottish government have a whole lot of new stats coming later this week including I think analysis by age/death which again is a bit morbid but very useful factually.
 

Jamie

Admin
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Feel a bit sorry for Scottish people couped up in wee hooses who get stick for going down to their local park for a walk.😥

This was european airspace this morning with London as always chocca.🤔

Fair play to Italy🇮🇹 though.
Most of those planes are grounded...

This one most defo isn't...

Screenshot_20200407-185518_Flightradar24.jpg
 

Attachments

Jack

Bounce Radge
I was looking at flightradar the other day and did a fair bit of clicking on aircraft.

There were only 2 planes over Scotland at the time, neither got closer than 36,000 feet! About a dozen helicopters up north.

Most of the others around Europe were cargo aircraft. I saw somewhere last week that Heathrow was taking something like 10 times the freight they were previously.
 

1875

Admin
I was looking at flightradar the other day and did a fair bit of clicking on aircraft.

There were only 2 planes over Scotland at the time, neither got closer than 36,000 feet! About a dozen helicopters up north.

Most of the others around Europe were cargo aircraft. I saw somewhere last week that Heathrow was taking something like 10 times the freight they were previously.
As I understand it, two weeks back a decision was made to land cargo at Heathrow and no really anywhere else in England. Inverness and Edinburgh may or may not have been the Scottish airports?
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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This is the Edinburgh University professor again who is on all these strategic advisory UK committees sounding very frustrated about the eventual end game.

Her mantra is always to save lives and test, trace and isolate.👍✔ along the lines of China, South East Asian countries and Germany as an exit strategy.

Not sure where other European countries are going and Public Health England don't seem to have formulated any exit strategy from yet more lockdowns later in the year.

On the ground the NHS in England are getting there and certainly NHS Scotland are right on top of the patient numbers so maybe once the TV cameras go they might feel they can go for "herd strategy" by stealth.

Brutal call to make but it will be a numbers game Economy v Health.
 
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SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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A decision needs to be made soon about extending the limited lockdown and while its a certainty the media will still give the "death rate and the approaching peak" big licks in their usual distasteful style.😥

Looking instead at the figures behind the figures and the Scottish government🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 must be happy that new infections might be slowing and give a cautious welcome to the ICU figures.

Cautious in the sense that there is a large over capacity of ICU's in Scotland to treat patients and no hospital has any chance of being overwhelmed.

ICU occupancy is still rising though you would expect the numbers being treated to reduce soon.
 
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SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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The word "surge" gets used a lot but as far as Scotland🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 is concerned when you look at all the underlying parameters its hard to see where the "surge" (presumably in deaths) is going to come from.

New infections: Maybe going down✔.
Patients being treated in hospital. Stable✔
Patients being treated in ICU's: Stable✔
Number of days since limited lockdown began 15.✔

Sad to say there will be a mathematical model that will now be able to calculate reasonably accurately when the top of the curve is going to be reached in Scotland🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and tragically the total number of expected deaths in this phase 1.
 
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SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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This graph released by NHS Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 is surprising.

Good news but just thought it would be bigger than this.✔
 
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