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Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
View media item 266
Its not a Scottish graph obviously but it shows how long it took the Chinese authority to get the Wuhan outbreak under control which was almost under strict military curfew for 69 days.

London as it must will drive any decision here and its curve has barely started and so far the blunt instrumental of a 'lockdown' is implemented in a rather lax and limited manner.

Open borders and planes ✈ still arriving every day where everyone just goes through customs with no checks or testing.😥.

Its going to be a long summer.😣
 
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Purple & Green

Radge McRadge
Admin
Bit of a rise today 50 in Scotland and over 560 in whole UK, over 1000 people in two days, sad.
Numbers are doubling every few days, so the numbers grow very quickly. All other things being equal, we can expect the deaths and cases to have doubled from today in around 4 days time.

But, there's a but, one of the difficulties overall around the world not just scotland is the disparity in approach and testing so we might not even really understand what actually happened until everything is reviewed at the other end.
 

Purple & Green

Radge McRadge
Admin
Bit of a rise today 50 in Scotland and over 560 in whole UK, over 1000 people in two days, sad.
As per my previous post:

Scottish test numbers: 02 April 2020
A total of 18,128 people in Scotland have been tested. Of these:

  • 15,526 tests were confirmed negative
  • 2,602 tests were positive
  • 126 patients who tested positive have died
Following a change in how deaths are reported, today’s increased figures reflect the difference between the previous and new reporting systems.
It will be indicative if come 6th April we have tested 36K people, and 5K people have tested positive.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
View media item 268
Scottish deaths "leaped" today to 126 in total, 40 of which were backdated due to what was called "family confidentiality".

If thats the reason that is very poor from the Scottish Government to suddenly drop so many numbers into the equation.😥. Feels much more like someone fvk up somewhere.

They need to be far more transparent and open and they did say next week they would produce a more detailed analysis of the figures presumably by age and location.

They did provide good information on how the testing system in Scotland works being.

1. Patients.✔
2. Front line NHS Scotland staff.✔
3. Family members of NHS staff.✔

Also general surveillance testing of the general Scottish population continues at 1,900 per day aiming to up that to 3,000 per day.✔

These numbers sound good but again they need to be put in perspective as its no use looking at Public Health Englands chaotic testing mess instead look at Norway who does 5 times as many tests per day.👍
 

Westside Green

Bounce Radge
I don't get the family confidentiality thing. If they announce a death in Scotland without any other information how can anybody have a problrm?
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
I don't get the family confidentiality thing. If they announce a death in Scotland without any other information how can anybody have a problrm?
Exactly✔ and these figures go into an aggregate number so its hard to see the problem

Public Health England had exactly the same 'controversey' over these numbers last week.

A little investigation indicates there might have been a laboratory which wasn't recording or reporting numbers correctly.😥

The Scottish Government released a statement saying going forward they were using death registrars and certificates which you kinda thought they would have been using all the time.

A poor day all round and again its people lives not stattos getting their cheapies.😔
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
View media item 269
This is a fascinating graph (for anoraks like me at least😉) as it shows traffic movements in a city so you can get an indication of lockdown severity.

Look at London compared to Wuhan or Paris, New York or Madrid or the back to normal Chinese cities. Chinese cities often have car free days at weekends if any hawkeyes wondered.😉

Its a very limited lockdown in London🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 and indeed all of the countries of the UK so you are just going to take longer and longer to bring the increase in cases under control.

The lockdown extension is therefore a gimmie but will the regulations be tightened is the call. ❓
 
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Jack

Bounce Radge
I don't get the family confidentiality thing. If they announce a death in Scotland without any other information how can anybody have a problrm?
I worked on the 1991 Census. If I recall correctly there's a thing called the 'small area stats' or something like that.

It means that if there are less than a certain number in an area for anything that the stats for that area had to be aggregated with other areas. This was to protect confidentiality. I can only imagine this is the same sort of thing.
 

Amsterdam

Bounce Radge
View media item 268
Scottish deaths "leaped" today to 126 in total, 40 of which were backdated due to what was called "family confidentiality".

If thats the reason that is very poor from the Scottish Government to suddenly drop so many numbers into the equation.😥. Feels much more like someone fvk up somewhere.

They need to be far more transparent and open and they did say next week they would produce a more detailed analysis of the figures presumably by age and location.

They did provide good information on how the testing system in Scotland works being.

1. Patients.✔
2. Front line NHS Scotland staff.✔
3. Family members of NHS staff.✔

Also general surveillance testing of the general Scottish population continues at 1,900 per day aiming to up that to 3,000 per day.✔

These numbers sound good but again they need to be put in perspective as its no use looking at Public Health Englands chaotic testing mess instead look at Norway who does 5 times as many tests per day.👍
Hi Sam, have you found any evidence of the test figure now being at 1,900 a day? I have been following the gov.scot Coronavirus page. They update the figures daily. I have copied the page for a week now & up till yesterday the average test figure was 750 a day. It has gone up to 1112 & 1121 over last 2 days respectively. I wondered if you had found any other figure that should be added to the total number they, produce each day?
Thanks for all the information so far dude, #nerdsrus
 

Westside Green

Bounce Radge
I worked on the 1991 Census. If I recall correctly there's a thing called the 'small area stats' or something like that.

It means that if there are less than a certain number in an area for anything that the stats for that area had to be aggregated with other areas. This was to protect confidentiality. I can only imagine this is the same sort of thing.
You hear it often when there's say a car crash. One person dead and 3 others injured no further details on the fatality are released until the family have been informed.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
Hi Sam, have you found any evidence of the test figure now being at 1,900 a day? I have been following the gov.scot Coronavirus page. They update the figures daily. I have copied the page for a week now & up till yesterday the average test figure was 750 a day. It has gone up to 1112 & 1121 over last 2 days respectively. I wondered if you had found any other figure that should be added to the total number they, produce each day?
Thanks for all the information so far dude, #nerdsrus
I hadnt actually thought about checking but you are right official figures look short of the 1,900 per day quoted and the 3,000 per day projected by end of April

However the 1,900 or 3,000 a day quoted is actually the testing capacity not actual tests once you dig a little deeper.

Someone was on the screens last night talking about 100,000 tests a day in England by the end April which is also widely opptimistic and you would think just plucking a number out of the sky to give the public something it would like to hear as Johnson did weeks ago with 250,000 a day.😂.

My totally speculative guess is the end game isn't just testing and tracing and its certainly not mass testing at all which looks off the table.

Its extended lockdown 1, followed later by lockdown 2 and then slow release of lockdowns while keep beefing up the NHS and going for herd immunity slowly then picking a point and letting the virus burn through.

All the time hoping for a vaccine in less than a year.

That's not a criticism its just a huge judgment call someone has to make eventually to balance economics v health v society welfare.
 
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Amsterdam

Bounce Radge
I hadnt actually thought about checking but you are right official figures look short of the 1,900 per day quoted and the 3,000 per day projected by end of April

However the 1,900 or 3,000 a day quoted is actually the testing capacity not actual tests once you dig a little deeper.

Someone was on the screens last night talking about 100,000 tests a day in England by the end April which is also widely opptimistic and you would think just plucking a number out of the sky to give the public something it would like to hear as Johnson did weeks ago with 250,000 a day.😂.

My totally speculative guess is the end game isn't just testing and tracing and its certainly not mass testing at all which looks off the table.

Its extended lockdown 1, followed later by lockdown 2 and then slow release of lockdowns while keep beefing up the NHS and going for herd immunity slowly then picking a point and letting the virus burn through.

All the time hoping for a vaccine in less than a year.

That's not a criticism its just a huge judgment call someone has to make eventually to balance economics v health v society welfare.
Thanks for replying Sam
I have to agree with everything that you write after My total speculative guess. It’s been their clear aim, despite the protests to the contrary. Let’s see how the testing figures change or don’t in the coming days
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
View media item 270
Its all very well saying we have capacity in Scotland to test 1,900 per day but are only testing 1,400.🤔

Better news on Intensive care units with spare capacity still as 161 out of 300 occupied and Scotland seems sound on ventilators.

The First Minister pointed out that we don't know when the virus will peak in Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 as there is not enough live data and all they have is computer models.

Its going to a difficult sell as England,🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 will peak earlier which will be broadcast from the rooftops and people in Scotland might naturally relax the "Stay at home" message.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
View media item 273
More "interesting" graphs showing that the "lockdown" isn't as strict as in other countries. So expect this to be tightened particularly as no peak of cases yet in England.🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

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Then the possible endgame. Lockdown 1 followed by Lockdown 2 followed by Lockdown 3 each getting less and less strict as time goes by.😕
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
View media item 275
Wretched day for Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 on the PR front but an excellent day on the testing front as this now seems to be moving ever upward to the 3,500 daily by end April.

Only 2 deaths ?! so next to no one dies in Scotland over a weekend.🤔.

Obviously statistical but you would have thought this would be a 7 day week monitoring situation but evidently not.
 

Rocky

Bounce Radge
View media item 275
Wretched day for Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 on the PR front but an excellent day on the testing front as this now seems to be moving ever upward to the 3,500 daily by end April.

Only 2 deaths ?! so next to no one dies in Scotland over a weekend.🤔.

Obviously statistical but you would have thought this would be a 7 day week monitoring situation but evidently not.
FM said in press conference that it's because Registers of Scotland aren't geared up to work weekends but they're working to change that. Think she said the numbers would be in by Tuesday / Wednesday.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
View media item 276
This is where our little part of the world fits into and compares with other countries and regions and these little lines represent people's lives rather than just stats on a graph.😥
 
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