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Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

Jack

Bounce Radge
View media item 240
This is very up to date and interesting as we shouldn't be having dips.

I think the explanation given was that Scotland's curve is much further behind England and especially London and so its not yet fully developed.

A lot of statistics guys modeling are very annoyed with Public Health England as they dont give specific London figures or at least if they do they are harder to find.

It makes comparisons with Madrid, New York and of course the source at Wuhan very difficult because one of the modelling secrets is projecting when you will hit your peak.
You just need to know where to look. On this link figures for London are on the 5th page, NHS Regions. You'll maybe be interested in the pages before that too.

 

Davy

get off yer bum an sing radge
Bounce Radge
View media item 240
This is very up to date and interesting as we shouldn't be having dips.

I think the explanation given was that Scotland's curve is much further behind England and especially London and so its not yet fully developed.

A lot of statistics guys modeling are very annoyed with Public Health England as they dont give specific London figures or at least if they do they are harder to find.

It makes comparisons with Madrid, New York and of course the source at Wuhan very difficult because one of the modelling secrets is projecting when you will hit your peak.
There was specific numbers for each London burgh on the online guardian pages.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
Interesting development from Public Health England who are going to change the way they report "Death Statistics".

Something to do with "needing consent of the relatives" which sounds mighty tenuous for aggregated data.

England's figures yesterday were very confusing, late and an admission they weren't 24 hours hence the positive drop.

Speculation that its a way to massage the figures lower but the reverse argument is that if you do that then the general public get much more relaxed and won't adhere to the lockdown extensions so you make the matter worse as well as losing trust.

Death stats is quite a horrible subject but it can't make sense that Germany population 100million has 200 casualties whereas Italy 8,000, Spain 6000 and Russia nil so there is obviously different measuring techniques out there.

Understandably so if a poor person has multiple underlying conditions then what was the real cause.

That's the sort of question journalists should be asking the First Minister today to see if Scotland follows suit to the English model rather than some playpark in East Kilbride where the kids were playing on the swings.

Important to remember amongst all the lurid headlines that 30,000 people will die annually in Scotland and one of the more solid Covid 19 predictions looked like adding 1,800 to that sad total and its older people over 75 with underlying conditions most at risk plus the other risk categories.

Its a brutal virus but not one that decimates younger healthy people.
 
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Davy

get off yer bum an sing radge
Bounce Radge
Easy way to get them showing true figure...EU asks for official figures with death certificate...those countries with fewer deaths or disruption pay more in to help other...you will soon see true figures :D
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
Easy way to get them showing true figure...EU asks for official figures with death certificate...those countries with fewer deaths or disruption pay more in to help other...you will soon see true figures :D
That's interesting thanks.

There must be big dilemmas developing for Doctors signing death certificates for patients with a multiple of conditions.

Horrible subject but another example of the ethical problems and huge decision making front line medical professionals have to face that we rarely have to think about.
 

southfieldhibby

Bounce Radge
Maybe I have missed it, but does anyone have any idea why Italy has ended up with such a high death rate ? They seemed to be the first European country to suffer from the outbreak, however there appears to be no stopping it in there to any degree, and if anything there are even more deaths occurring there ?
Possibly there is a higher elderly population in he north of Italy ? also they are a very family orientated country and many families have generations who live together, this may possibly have some bearing on it.
I've read elsewhere that alot of it has to do with Italian fashion houses in northern Italy using factories in Wuhan to produce their goods. Daily flights from Milan to Wuhan, long incubation period of virus, Italian families living 3 generations together, and kissing instead of the presbyterian nod of acknowledgement all combined to cause disaster.


My wife has Covid19, she's been laid low since Saturday. Not bad enough to go to hospital, but she's feeling terrible. She also had the same thing you mention in December and tells me that was MUCH worse..
 

Jack

Bounce Radge
Interesting development from Public Health England who are going to change the way they report "Death Statistics".

Something to do with "needing consent of the relatives" which sounds mighty tenuous for aggregated data.

England's figures yesterday were very confusing, late and an admission they weren't 24 hours hence the positive drop.

Speculation that its a way to massage the figures lower but the reverse argument is that if you do that then the general public get much more relaxed and won't adhere to the lockdown extensions so you make the matter worse as well as losing trust.

Death stats is quite a horrible subject but it can't make sense that Germany population 100million has 200 casualties whereas Italy 8,000, Spain 6000 and Russia nil so there is obviously different measuring techniques out there.

Understandably so if a poor person has multiple underlying conditions then what was the real cause.

That's the sort of question journalists should be asking the First Minister today to see if Scotland follows suit to the English model rather than some playpark in East Kilbride where the kids were playing on the swings.

Important to remember amongst all the lurid headlines that 30,000 people will die annually in Scotland and one of the more solid Covid 19 predictions looked like adding 1,800 to that sad total and its older people over 75 with underlying conditions most at risk plus the other risk categories.

Its a brutal virus but not one that decimates younger healthy people.
On the wireless this morning a doctor was saying actual numbers were way higher for those infected in Scotland. We knew that. Don't get scared if I say 30/40,000.

The issue I have and posted about yesterday was the SG/NHS have a surveillance system linked to 41 GP Practices around the country. This has worked well for many years FOR SURVEILLANCE. Yesterday's moan was this didn't fight the fire just informed as to how big the fire was.

Todays moan is that the SG are not passing the intelligence gained from that cohort of practices.

If, let's say, 100 people from that cohort are tested and 40 are infected these are the numbers that will be published. But what the SG and NHS statisticians then do with that information is build up a very accurate picture of what the figures are nationally. These are the numbers that will make people sit up in a " WTF, did she really day that?" sort of way and probably the figures that doctor had sight of this morning.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
On the wireless this morning a doctor was saying actual numbers were way higher for those infected in Scotland. We knew that. Don't get scared if I say 30/40,000.

The issue I have and posted about yesterday was the SG/NHS have a surveillance system linked to 41 GP Practices around the country. This has worked well for many years FOR SURVEILLANCE. Yesterday's moan was this didn't fight the fire just informed as to how big the fire was.

Todays moan is that the SG are not passing the intelligence gained from that cohort of practices.

If, let's say, 100 people from that cohort are tested and 40 are infected these are the numbers that will be published. But what the SG and NHS statisticians then do with that information is build up a very accurate picture of what the figures are nationally. These are the numbers that will make people sit up in a " WTF, did she really day that?" sort of way and probably the figures that doctor had sight of this morning.
At today's press conference the Health secretary gave the number of 40,000 to 50,000 people in Scotland have Covid-19 in her estimation. No doubt estimated from your 41 GP practices plus additional testing.

In many cases it will be so mild that they barley notice.

Seemed pretty confident in her numbers and you would have thought this is a far more important (and frightening) statistic than the 894 confirmed which is just hospital testing.

Really should help the "Stay at home" message if numbers like that got more prominence.
 
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Davy

get off yer bum an sing radge
Bounce Radge
Guys laying fibre optic cables in drunbrae didnt look 2 feet apart never mind 2 metres
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
View media item 242
The Professor of global public health at Edinburgh University is looking at the end game now for Scotland whenever that may be.

Highly impressive woman especially when interviewed and is begining to rack up the media appearances.

Fascinating when looking at her past interviews as way ahead of the curve though this South Korean type model is a tough one to implement.
 

Greenmachine

Bounce Radge
Don't watch Question Time normally, but I watched it tonight and the panellist who I think was a doctor painted a very pessimistic picture about the length of time this country will be dealing with Covid-19 based on how long it took Rohun City in China to deal with it. A city of 11 Million people has been in total lock-down since mid February and they are expected to possibly start lifting restrictions in about early to mid April. . He said we will need 12 weeks minimum with total lock-down, and even then he said the virus was likley to come back two or three times later on in the year. IMO this country will not be able to cope with that sort of scenario. Businesses are struggling to survive even this early into it never mind the social problems this will cause. Firms and self-employed people having to get massive emergency state payments made just to get them through the next couple of months. God knows what state we are going to be in come the summer and into the autumn if all the restrictions are still in place then.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
Much relief in the stats and modeling world tonight when Public Health England published its figures on time tonight and seemed to move to a 24 hour reporting period to 5:00pm ready for publication the next day.

Feels similar to NHS Scotlands reporting time line.

No further negative comment on the possible change in measurement by Public Health England which is excellent news and so retains trust in the stats.

Numbers weren't good though with London suffering most of all.

Sweden now having problems and thinking of just isolating Stockholm only. Short-term thinking.
 
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SlovSam

Bounce Radge
View media item 243
This mornings flight arrivals at Edinburgh airport where there are absolutely no checks at the UK border entry points for Covid 19.

France for example has a far worse Covid 19 problem than Scotland yet the CDG flight will arrive and the passengers depart with no checks at all.

This will also happen all over the English airports as well hence you can have lockdowns for whatever period you want and you will dampen and flatten the curve but you can never eliminate the threat.

Its all about getting Covid 19 down to a manageable level which to be fair to the UK government they are beginning to quietly educate people on as for about 98% of the population it isn't a life threatening disease.

Many South East Asian countries ensure all new arrivals go through thermal imaging scanners looking for fever.

Others actually physically quarrintine new arrivals for up to 14 days which takes this up another level but you can hardly see Scotland being able to achieve that level of security.
 
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Hibee Kev

Bounce Radge
View media item 243
This mornings flight arrivals at Edinburgh airport where there are absolutely no checks at the UK border entry points for Covid 19.

France for example has a far worse Covid 19 problem than Scotland yet the CDG flight will arrive and the passengers depart with no checks at all.

This will also happen all over the English airports as well hence you can have lockdowns for whatever period you want and you will dampen and flatten the curve but you can never eliminate the threat.

Its all about getting Covid 19 down to a manageable level which to be fair to the UK government they are beginning to quietly educate people on as for about 98% of the population it isn't a life threatening disease.

Many South East Asian countries ensure all new arrivals go through thermal imaging scanners looking for fever.

Others actually physically quarrintine new arrivals for up to 14 days which takes this up another level but you can hardly see Scotland being able to achieve that level of security.
Are we beginning to see a flattening of the curve as a result of the lockdown measures in place yet?
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
Are we beginning to see a flattening of the curve as a result of the lockdown measures in place yet?
View media item 244
Scotland lags quite a way behind England and the lockdown very rightly was put in place to save London where over a third of the cases were active and the hospitals were projected to being overwhelmed so it was definitely the correct call.

But at the moment its far to early to say where the curve actually is though of course governments with computer modeling techniques will have a far better idea.

Lockdown works though in flattening the curve as there are so many examples worldwide but it just takes a long time.

A similar country to Scotland in Denmark just extended their lock down from 2 to 4 weeks as did my other country Malaysia which also extended by 2 to 4 weeks.

France and Italy from what I have read seem to be thinking the same. President Macron of France talked about extending from 2 to 6 weeks so you can take that as a gimmie that an extension will happen in France.

It seems to be that countries put initial lockdowns in place but then gradually extend the period of time.

Sorry not to find any positives at all.šŸ˜„
 
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SlovSam

Bounce Radge
View media item 245
Here's the Professor again explaining that lockdown is a time buying exercise not a solution.
 

Purple & Green

Radge McRadge
Admin
The UK cases include Scotland - but its not a straight deduction because the series are on different timelines.

View media item 244
Scotland lags quite a way behind England and the lockdown very rightly was put in place to save London where over a third of the cases were active and the hospitals were projected to being overwhelmed so it was definitely the correct call.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
I would agree with that.

I liked the honesty at todays Scotland NHS press conference when they updated the numbers of probable infections in Scotland to 65,000 people.

That's the ever increasing number to get out there to reinforce the "stay at home" message.

Get that number under control then you reduce the positive confirmed cases in hospitals and then the number of deaths.

Even though its an estimate you can mathematically work it out from the wads of statistical data throughout the world.
 
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