Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

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HibsSM1979

Just A Radge
Seems cases generallh going up across the uk as a whole today. Let’s hope it doesn’t translate into increasing serious illness and puts us emerging out of lockdown in question
 

Greenmachine

Aulder Than The Internet This Radge
Seems cases generallh going up across the uk as a whole today. Let’s hope it doesn’t translate into increasing serious illness and puts us emerging out of lockdown in question
As we ease out of lockdown we are bound to see cases rise as more people are together. We just have to manage the situation carefully...this is what we are going to have to do from now on with Covid.
 

HibsSM1979

Just A Radge
As we ease out of lockdown we are bound to see cases rise as more people are together. We just have to manage the situation carefully...this is what we are going to have to do from now on with Covid.
Agreed and for my tuppence worth, I think those who have argued for the speeding up of coming out of lockdown should be shot down now. I hate these restrictions as much as anyone and crave as close a return to normality as anyone to but we can’t rush it and take risks that will knock us back to square one
 
Not the ideal run up to opening up!

View attachment 4938
It's been good to watch thanks but it's clearly ridiculous now. The cases simply haven't quadrupled in the last few weeks in edin. It would be front page news. The r is between 0.8 and 1 not 3+

It'll be due to the numbers being so low now using that app. probably 2 people logging symptoms a few weeks ago and 8 today. Cases in Edinburgh have had a small bump up in the last week 20% but from a low point and still tiny 26/100,000. It's been pretty flat for 3 weeks before . Following the graph we'd be at February levels in a month or so , thankfully that's nuts
 

Rocky

Well-Known Radge
It's been good to watch thanks but it's clearly ridiculous now. The cases simply haven't quadrupled in the last few weeks in edin. It would be front page news. The r is between 0.8 and 1 not 3+

It'll be due to the numbers being so low now using that app. probably 2 people logging symptoms a few weeks ago and 8 today. Cases in Edinburgh have had a small bump up in the last week 20% but from a low point and still tiny 26/100,000. It's been pretty flat for 3 weeks before . Following the graph we'd be at February levels in a month or so , thankfully that's nuts
They changed the calculation which is why it's showing a big increase. The reason for the change was that they worked out that the contributors to the study are more likely to be vaccinated than the wider population (89% of contributors are vaccinated) so it was under reporting if they didn't make the adjustment.

Overall the current numbers look about right, eg using the number you quote of 26 per 100,000 population per week: 26 / 100,000 x 525,000 (Edinburgh population) / 7 days x 16 days (average length of time a case is 'active') = 312. I'm not sure if they factor in asymptomatic, but if they do and we assume 20% asymptomatic then 312 / 80% = 390, so 374 is certainly in the right ball park. The issue is the previous numbers being too low which makes the trend look bad.
 
They changed the calculation which is why it's showing a big increase. The reason for the change was that they worked out that the contributors to the study are more likely to be vaccinated than the wider population (89% of contributors are vaccinated) so it was under reporting if they didn't make the adjustment.

Overall the current numbers look about right, eg using the number you quote of 26 per 100,000 population per week: 26 / 100,000 x 525,000 (Edinburgh population) / 7 days x 16 days (average length of time a case is 'active') = 312. I'm not sure if they factor in asymptomatic, but if they do and we assume 20% asymptomatic then 312 / 80% = 390, so 374 is certainly in the right ball park. The issue is the previous numbers being too low which makes the trend look bad.
But the point is you can't change the parameters and keep the graph its ridiculous. Apart from that zoe for the last 2 months or so has had city's numbers halving/doubling in a matter of days. It also had uk as a whole with an r of .4 a while back which unfortunately was impossible. We are testing over a million a day in the UK use this official graphs they are much more accurate.
 
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