Some of those numbers look a little curious so I took a look at the Health Board level data. A few observations:
I've had another look at the "suspected cases in hospital" data and I reckon it's definitely a bit pointless. According to the data files, ambulances are taking around 150 suspected Covid cases to hospital every day - so I think their definition of "suspected Covid" probably includes anyone displaying any of the known symptoms. So basically I reckon if you have a high temperature you'd be classed as "suspected Covid" under that measure. Anyone who's classed as suspected Covid probably stays classed as that until they've had a negative test result back (which presumably the vast majority do). So the big fluctuations in suspected cases are probably just to do with the administration of tests and the timing of updating the results when they come back in.Some of those numbers look a little curious so I took a look at the Health Board level data. A few observations:
- The increase in hospital numbers comes wholly from suspected cases which are up by 147 (confirmed cases are down by 3).
- NHS Lothian suspected cases in hospital are the highest they've ever been at 238 (+91 on previous day). It's never been above 200 before. My suspicion is that there's some inconsistency in the definition of 'suspected' so these numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt.
- ICU patients in NHS Lothian have gone from less than 5 (they show an asterisk if a number is less than 5 so not sure what the exact number is) to 9 in the space of a day. Average has been around 6 ICU patients in NHS Lothian for the past month.
- No other board has as many as 5 ICU cases.
- NHS Lothian has not had a positive test for Covid since 25 June (when there were 3)
- There was an increase of 10 positive tests since yesterday, of which 5 were in Dumfries and Galloway (they've not had a positive test since 20 June prior to that, wonder if it's just delayed reporting or is there an indication of a localised spike down that way?).
London's R number is now above one.