Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

[SlovSam]

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[SlovSam]

I plan to try to keep this updated regarding Scotland's Covid-19 situation in the form of graph rather than narritive.

So far Scotland's figures seem quite positive though there will be a lag on other countries.

Death rate is remarkably positive though of course every death has a tragedy behind it.

Equally confirmed cases per day is quite variable which is a little surprising though very hopeful as you don't want exponential growth.

 

[DarrenSQH]

Since we arent really testing the only real stat is deaths. Theres 4 people self isolating from my team at work. All phoned 111 but none offered a test. Imagine theres lots in the same boat.

 

[SlovSam]

Since we arent really testing the only real stat is deaths. Theres 4 people self isolating from my team at work. All phoned 111 but none offered a test. Imagine theres lots in the same boat.

Agreed testing is the big recommendation and its only hospital admissions that seems to be tested.

Deaths of 10 seem very low which must be good news compared to England's 271 though London lag must play a part in that.

 

[Canon Hannan]

 

[MeanwoodHibee]

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Just asking, is there a difference between the first and third graphs? They look different, but illustrate the same stats?

 

[SlovSam]

Looks identical information.

Think I duplicated from another source.

 

[Jamie]

Stuck this mate. Thank you

 

[SlovSam]

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This one looks very positive.

Forgive me if I can't interpret them but as Scottish Health service is devolved I hope its helpful to see the developing picture in Scotland as so often our situation just gets immersed in the English numbers.

I think its the shape of the curve that matters rather than the actual numbers as large populated countries will obviously be at the top.

 

[Purple & Green]

If the cases were *that* low, we should still be able to contain it, and the measures in place would have a big impact.

10 deaths (kill rate 1% would suggest 1000 cases)

416 cases, 8679 tests - ie 5% of those tested have the virus - seems bizarre.

In rUK as a whole, 69,661 tested 5,267 ie 7.6% of those tested have the virus. 271 deaths in rUK

 

[SlovSam]

I dont think the numbers are (that) relevant, as China has a population 20x Italy - it's to do with the curve. The log thing throws me because it's that long since I done it.

Yes agreed. Definitely its the curve that matters and frankly the only bottom line figure that I can interpret is the number of deaths as I don't really get or understand all the sources though the FT guy John Burn Murdoch on Twitter is a good follow.

10 deaths at the moment seems fairly low I think which must be a tribute to NHS Scotland who are at the front line

There were 800 suicides in Scotland sadly last year which is tragic but might give a comparison in the future.

 

[Doc Shrink]

Yes agreed. Definitely its the curve that matters and frankly the only bottom line figure that I can interpret is the number of deaths as I don't really get or understand all the sources though the FT guy John Burn Murdoch on Twitter is a good follow.

10 deaths at the moment seems fairly low I think which must be a tribute to NHS Scotland who are at the front line

There were 800 suicides in Scotland sadly last year which is tragic but might give a comparison in the future.

Suicide rates in Scotland are going to soar.

I'm one of the few *&*^ on here who is even moderately mentally healthy, and after a weekend with the missus and no Hibs........ and fuckin home working coming up....

Just saying.

Looks like a maximum 50% survival rate in the Shrink household.

Tuesday may be worse.

 

[Purple & Green]

Yes agreed. Definitely its the curve that matters and frankly the only bottom line figure that I can interpret is the number of deaths as I don't really get or understand all the sources though the FT guy John Burn Murdoch on Twitter is a good follow.

10 deaths at the moment seems fairly low I think which must be a tribute to NHS Scotland who are at the front line

There were 800 suicides in Scotland sadly last year which is tragic but might give a comparison in the future.

what would happen is Scotland could only have 5.5 million cases [edit: assuming you can only catch it once] so would flatline then or at 60%for example. I’m not sure how many days it would take to get there with say an increase in cases of 10% per day

 

[SlovSam]

Yes agreed. Definitely its the curve that matters and frankly the only bottom line figure that I can interpret is the number of deaths as I don't really get or understand all the sources though the FT guy John Burn Murdoch on Twitter is a good follow.

10 deaths at the moment seems fairly low I think which must be a tribute to NHS Scotland who are at the front line

There were 800 suicides in Scotland sadly last year which is tragic but might give a comparison in the future.

Just updating my own post but I was reading in the Malaysian press when I was there that Scotland has 4.2 Intensive care units compared to England 2.4 per head of population so that might be a factor.

Wish I could remember the source as I have no idea if it was valid or not and of course everyone is trying to bump that up now as they realized thats the big key to survival rates.

 

[tayside hibee]

On the testing issue, my next door neighbour and his wife are both nurses. He was sent home a couple of days ago with a cough( he is adamant it's just the cold ) but they are now in isolation . No testing planned, it all seems a waste . They both might be clear, but probably will get infected at some point. Why lose 2 workers when they may be ok?
Non testing appears a very false logic to me?

 

[Jack]

Scotland does surveillance testing. Basically from testing in a bunch of representative areas they can quite accurately work out how many across Scotland have anything. They've been doing it for years.

Prof Jason Leitch described it on the radio as being similar to the way radio and TV stations work out viewing figures.

Scottish surveillance testing system for Covid-19 begins

The plan will detect community transmission of the coronavirus in the event of an outbreak in Scotland.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[SlovSam]

Scotland does surveillance testing. Basically from testing in a bunch of representative areas they can quite accurately work out how many across Scotland have anything. They've been doing it for years.

Prof Jason Leitch described it on the radio as being similar to the way radio and TV stations work out viewing figures.

Scottish surveillance testing system for Covid-19 begins

The plan will detect community transmission of the coronavirus in the event of an outbreak in Scotland.

www.bbc.co.uk

That sounds very positive and it would be interesting how that compares to other countries.

Interesting to know if it was published. Probably not.

I think its a fair criticism of the Scottish government that they don't explain that public health and the Scottish NHS is a devolved matter and that there may be good reasons why they don't need to follow exactly what is happening in England.

As data develops, policy evolves as there must be explanations why death rates vary so wildly between countries (look at Germanys amazing low death rate v Italys tragically high) though some of it will be different ways of measuring these sad statistics.

 

[Two Headed Boy]

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This one looks very positive.

Forgive me if I can't interpret them but as Scottish Health service is devolved I hope its helpful to see the developing picture in Scotland as so often our situation just gets immersed in the English numbers.

I think its the shape of the curve that matters rather than the actual numbers as large populated countries will obviously be at the top.

My guess would be that Scotland has more rural populations and the town's are spread further apart. When it hits up here, I can see Greater Glasgow getting hit hardest, it's one of the few places in Scotland where large towns bleed into each other without a few miles of A road and smaller towns/villages sepereating them.

 

[greencol]

That sounds very positive and it would be interesting how that compares to other countries.

Interesting to know if it was published. Probably not.

I think its a fair criticism of the Scottish government that they don't explain that public health and the Scottish NHS is a devolved matter and that there may be good reasons why they don't need to follow exactly what is happening in England.

As data develops, policy evolves as there must be explanations why death rates vary so wildly between countries (look at Germanys amazing low death rate v Italys tragically high) though some of it will be different ways of measuring these sad statistics.

Interestingly, I see quarantine is not a devolved matter.
Unless there has been some kind of agreement in this unprecedented situation to loosen a few restrictions on devolved matters, then Scotland has to wait for Downing St to say yea, or nay .

 

[Canon Hannan]

its good see that graph but SG will want to keep that under wraps to avoid people retuning to normal thinking were good up here!