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Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

I plan to try to keep this updated regarding Scotland's Covid-19 situation in the form of graph rather than narritive.

So far Scotland's figures seem quite positive though there will be a lag on other countries.

Death rate is remarkably positive though of course every death has a tragedy behind it.

Equally confirmed cases per day is quite variable which is a little surprising though very hopeful as you don't want exponential growth.
 
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Since we arent really testing the only real stat is deaths. Theres 4 people self isolating from my team at work. All phoned 111 but none offered a test. Imagine theres lots in the same boat.
 
Since we arent really testing the only real stat is deaths. Theres 4 people self isolating from my team at work. All phoned 111 but none offered a test. Imagine theres lots in the same boat.

Agreed testing is the big recommendation and its only hospital admissions that seems to be tested.

Deaths of 10 seem very low which must be good news compared to England's 271 though London lag must play a part in that.
 
 
Just asking, is there a difference between the first and third graphs? They look different, but illustrate the same stats?
 
Looks identical information.

Think I duplicated from another source.
 
Stuck this mate. Thank you
 
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This one looks very positive.

Forgive me if I can't interpret them but as Scottish Health service is devolved I hope its helpful to see the developing picture in Scotland as so often our situation just gets immersed in the English numbers.

I think its the shape of the curve that matters rather than the actual numbers as large populated countries will obviously be at the top.
 
If the cases were *that* low, we should still be able to contain it, and the measures in place would have a big impact.

10 deaths (kill rate 1% would suggest 1000 cases)

416 cases, 8679 tests - ie 5% of those tested have the virus - seems bizarre.

In rUK as a whole, 69,661 tested 5,267 ie 7.6% of those tested have the virus. 271 deaths in rUK
 
I dont think the numbers are (that) relevant, as China has a population 20x Italy - it's to do with the curve. The log thing throws me because it's that long since I done it.

Yes agreed. Definitely its the curve that matters and frankly the only bottom line figure that I can interpret is the number of deaths as I don't really get or understand all the sources though the FT guy John Burn Murdoch on Twitter is a good follow.

10 deaths at the moment seems fairly low I think which must be a tribute to NHS Scotland who are at the front line

There were 800 suicides in Scotland sadly last year which is tragic but might give a comparison in the future.
 
Yes agreed. Definitely its the curve that matters and frankly the only bottom line figure that I can interpret is the number of deaths as I don't really get or understand all the sources though the FT guy John Burn Murdoch on Twitter is a good follow.

10 deaths at the moment seems fairly low I think which must be a tribute to NHS Scotland who are at the front line

There were 800 suicides in Scotland sadly last year which is tragic but might give a comparison in the future.

Suicide rates in Scotland are going to soar.

I'm one of the few *&*^ on here who is even moderately mentally healthy, and after a weekend with the missus and no Hibs........ and fuckin home working coming up....

Just saying.

Looks like a maximum 50% survival rate in the Shrink household.

Tuesday may be worse.
 
Yes agreed. Definitely its the curve that matters and frankly the only bottom line figure that I can interpret is the number of deaths as I don't really get or understand all the sources though the FT guy John Burn Murdoch on Twitter is a good follow.

10 deaths at the moment seems fairly low I think which must be a tribute to NHS Scotland who are at the front line

There were 800 suicides in Scotland sadly last year which is tragic but might give a comparison in the future.

what would happen is Scotland could only have 5.5 million cases [edit: assuming you can only catch it once] so would flatline then or at 60%for example. I’m not sure how many days it would take to get there with say an increase in cases of 10% per day
 
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Yes agreed. Definitely its the curve that matters and frankly the only bottom line figure that I can interpret is the number of deaths as I don't really get or understand all the sources though the FT guy John Burn Murdoch on Twitter is a good follow.

10 deaths at the moment seems fairly low I think which must be a tribute to NHS Scotland who are at the front line

There were 800 suicides in Scotland sadly last year which is tragic but might give a comparison in the future.

Just updating my own post but I was reading in the Malaysian press when I was there that Scotland has 4.2 Intensive care units compared to England 2.4 per head of population so that might be a factor.

Wish I could remember the source as I have no idea if it was valid or not and of course everyone is trying to bump that up now as they realized thats the big key to survival rates.
 
On the testing issue, my next door neighbour and his wife are both nurses. He was sent home a couple of days ago with a cough( he is adamant it's just the cold ) but they are now in isolation . No testing planned, it all seems a waste . They both might be clear, but probably will get infected at some point. Why lose 2 workers when they may be ok?
Non testing appears a very false logic to me?
 
Scotland does surveillance testing. Basically from testing in a bunch of representative areas they can quite accurately work out how many across Scotland have anything. They've been doing it for years.

Prof Jason Leitch described it on the radio as being similar to the way radio and TV stations work out viewing figures.

 
Scotland does surveillance testing. Basically from testing in a bunch of representative areas they can quite accurately work out how many across Scotland have anything. They've been doing it for years.

Prof Jason Leitch described it on the radio as being similar to the way radio and TV stations work out viewing figures.


That sounds very positive and it would be interesting how that compares to other countries.

Interesting to know if it was published. Probably not.

I think its a fair criticism of the Scottish government that they don't explain that public health and the Scottish NHS is a devolved matter and that there may be good reasons why they don't need to follow exactly what is happening in England.

As data develops, policy evolves as there must be explanations why death rates vary so wildly between countries (look at Germanys amazing low death rate v Italys tragically high) though some of it will be different ways of measuring these sad statistics.
 
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This one looks very positive.

Forgive me if I can't interpret them but as Scottish Health service is devolved I hope its helpful to see the developing picture in Scotland as so often our situation just gets immersed in the English numbers.

I think its the shape of the curve that matters rather than the actual numbers as large populated countries will obviously be at the top.

My guess would be that Scotland has more rural populations and the town's are spread further apart. When it hits up here, I can see Greater Glasgow getting hit hardest, it's one of the few places in Scotland where large towns bleed into each other without a few miles of A road and smaller towns/villages sepereating them.
 
That sounds very positive and it would be interesting how that compares to other countries.

Interesting to know if it was published. Probably not.

I think its a fair criticism of the Scottish government that they don't explain that public health and the Scottish NHS is a devolved matter and that there may be good reasons why they don't need to follow exactly what is happening in England.

As data develops, policy evolves as there must be explanations why death rates vary so wildly between countries (look at Germanys amazing low death rate v Italys tragically high) though some of it will be different ways of measuring these sad statistics.
Interestingly, I see quarantine is not a devolved matter.
Unless there has been some kind of agreement in this unprecedented situation to loosen a few restrictions on devolved matters, then Scotland has to wait for Downing St to say yea, or nay .
 
its good see that graph but SG will want to keep that under wraps to avoid people retuning to normal thinking were good up here!
 
its good see that graph but SG will want to keep that under wraps to avoid people retuning to normal thinking were good up here!

I think these graphs have a very long way to go and Scotland has a long lag lead time behind European countries or even England.

You would expect Scotland's curve to correlate somewhat with England but the rural population is an interesting and probably accurate reason why it might not.

It might give flexibility into lockdown in certain parts of Scotland only if it comes to that.
 
Agreed testing is the big recommendation and its only hospital admissions that seems to be tested.

Deaths of 10 seem very low which must be good news compared to England's 271 though London lag must play a part in that.


It is tempting for us to correlate Scotland with London which has a similar population. However London's population is crammed into a few square miles. You would have to find an area in England where there is more of a scattered population with 5 or 6 medium cities or towns....maybe Yorkshire would be more comparable
 
Maybe I have missed it, but does anyone have any idea why Italy has ended up with such a high death rate ? They seemed to be the first European country to suffer from the outbreak, however there appears to be no stopping it in there to any degree, and if anything there are even more deaths occurring there ?
Possibly there is a higher elderly population in he north of Italy ? also they are a very family orientated country and many families have generations who live together, this may possibly have some bearing on it.
 
Maybe I have missed it, but does anyone have any idea why Italy has ended up with such a high death rate ? They seemed to be the first European country to suffer from the outbreak, however there appears to be no stopping it in there to any degree, and if anything there are even more deaths occurring there ?
Possibly there is a higher elderly population in he north of Italy ? also they are a very family orientated country and many families have generations who live together, this may possibly have some bearing on it.

No one really knows, the suggestions are a large elderly population and the fact they all kiss and hug each other every time they meet. Possibly the temperature is a factor but I don't know.
 
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Interestingly, I see quarantine is not a devolved matter.
Unless there has been some kind of agreement in this unprecedented situation to loosen a few restrictions on devolved matters, then Scotland has to wait for Downing St to say yea, or nay .
Gadgie on wi Boris yesterday mentioned 1.5 million ,in ENGLAND, with health problems that are getting letters from government. Boys made a *&*^ of it or Scotland has its own.
 
Gadgie on wi Boris yesterday mentioned 1.5 million ,in ENGLAND, with health problems that are getting letters from government. Boys made a *&*^ of it or Scotland has its own.

Scotland are doing it separately, sure the number is around 120,000 people up here.
 
Scotland are doing it separately, sure the number is around 120,000 people up here.
Cheers Mark, I think Mandy said something similar when I think of it.
 
Maybe I have missed it, but does anyone have any idea why Italy has ended up with such a high death rate ? They seemed to be the first European country to suffer from the outbreak, however there appears to be no stopping it in there to any degree, and if anything there are even more deaths occurring there ?
Possibly there is a higher elderly population in he north of Italy ? also they are a very family orientated country and many families have generations who live together, this may possibly have some bearing on it.

If you've seen that Sky News report from inside the Bergamo hospital, then it's pretty clear. They let the virus spread early on & now the sheer number of cases is clogging up their health system. Not enough equipment & manpower for every new admission, priority given to those with a better chance of survival, average age of acute cases coming down as younger folk can hold out for longer without treatment & therefore deteriorate. It's grim & other countries are going to be seeing the same in the weeks to come.
 
If you've seen that Sky News report from inside the Bergamo hospital, then it's pretty clear. They let the virus spread early on & now the sheer number of cases is clogging up their health system. Not enough equipment & manpower for every new admission, priority given to those with a better chance of survival, average age of acute cases coming down as younger folk can hold out for longer without treatment & therefore deteriorate. It's grim & other countries are going to be seeing the same in the weeks to come.

How is Poland coping?
 
If you've seen that Sky News report from inside the Bergamo hospital, then it's pretty clear. They let the virus spread early on & now the sheer number of cases is clogging up their health system. Not enough equipment & manpower for every new admission, priority given to those with a better chance of survival, average age of acute cases coming down as younger folk can hold out for longer without treatment & therefore deteriorate. It's grim & other countries are going to be seeing the same in the weeks to come.
Theres a report that Germany is seeing a flattening out of cases.
Although the boffin said he wont be certain until he has all the info on Wednesday, but it looks like its heading the right way.
 
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This tends to support the theory that Scotland's land mass and spread of population is very effective in halting the cumulative increase in cases.

Very useful if deciding whether you go for total lockdown or just specific areas.
 
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This tends to support the theory that Scotland's land mass and spread of population is very effective in halting the cumulative increase in cases.

Very useful if deciding whether you go for total lockdown or just specific areas.
I reckon it has to be total.
Trusting people to do as they should is not enough by the latest reports.
Commuters in London ( I know, not Scotland, but the same mentality exists in lesser numbers here) are packed into trains this very morning after being told not to.
 
Cheers Mark, I think Mandy said something similar when I think of it.

Correction, 200,000 in Scotland.
 
I don't really follow the English numbers but obviously am aware that London has big problem developing and seems well in advance of other English regions.

China just locked down the Wuhan area and put restrictions but not lockdown on other Chinese cities.

South Korea never locked down anywhere.

Germany seem to be going for strict restrictions everywhere but no total lockdown anywhere.

Edit:
No Bavaria are going it alone with a two week lockdown.

Italy locked down the whole country top to bottom as did Spain

USA is varied by State.

Could you lockdown London but not other English regions or could you lockdown the whole of England but not Scotland.

Or do you lock down both Scotland and England as you can't protect the border as its really just a nominal line.

You would kind of think you lock down everywhere in UK and just take the full economic and social cost but different countries reach different conclusions.
 
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Scottish figures as very much up to date and very sombre reading for number of deaths being plus 4.

+83 new positive cases is worrying also.

There will be figures behind the figures and all sorts of computer projections and you cant help think listening to the gloom in the Scottish Health ministers voice that it spells anything other than big trouble.
 
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In response to the earlier question about the high numbers in Italy: I heard a guy on the radio last week suggesting it was partly down to the reasons already mentioned in this thread but also due to the fact that in lots of parts of Italy there are often 3, sometime's 4 generations of family members all living in the same home. Meaning the grandparents/older family members were much more likely to be exposed to the virus.
 
Sorry all my graphs seemed to have disappeared.

I will try to recreate but I guess the flow will be lost somewhat.
 
 
Sorry about losing the flow but that the main ones reinstated.
 

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