Corona virus on its own thread.

[HenryLB]

I think you should read the post again. The poster wasn't saying that Cheltenham races caused the rise. And using the most recent data available to him / her can hardly be called cherry picking. What's the source for your 21 per 100k? You certainly can't claim that cases declined after the meeting as the data for the first day of the meeting won't even be finalised till tomorrow. Unless you're cherry picking incomplete data?

I thought it worth revisiting this with some distance. Suffice to say the racing seems to have had no discernible impact. Cases are about a third of what they were from the peak "on the day".

This is important because of the way this stuff is always presented - as plain common sense and the product of enlightened and caring thinking that relies on obvious data that can be moved with obvious measures.

Sure, had the Facebook poster's mitigation practices been put into play when they wanted it we could be enjoying a situation like Spain. But equally we could have had a flare up as in Germany, Poland, Austria, Greece and all over Eastern Europe. Most of the latter had exactly the restrictions that those voices were calling for a month or so ago - indeed here's Devi Sridhar on 22 October, speaking approvingly of Germany cancelling events and enforcing masks etc:

It’s not surprising, then, that Germany is managing to control its Covid epidemic and bring down the numbers of cases and deaths. England (and the UK) by contrast is seeing a sharp rise in cases. Deaths are now on the increase too: this week’s daily reported toll was the highest since March. While the UK government continues to ask people to be vigilant and keep calm and carry on, the clock is ticking. Time is running out to put in some basic measures to prevent a further spike in cases, the NHS becoming overwhelmed, and very possibly another lockdown. Germany, meanwhile, is keeping its economy and society running, and looks in a strong position heading into the bumpy winter months.

Germany's 7-day death toll passed the UK's two weeks later. It's currently 70% higher heading into 'bumpy' winter.

So I just have two thoughts, really. First, there's a randomness to this stuff that belies certainty about measures and their impact. Second, be careful what you wish for - had the Facebook poster's - and Sridhar's - wish been granted we'd be starting our wave now and it's almost certain more people would have got ill.

 

[Davy]

Germany is on the rise and more restrictions being put in place

 

[Rocky]

I thought it worth revisiting this with some distance. Suffice to say the racing seems to have had no discernible impact. Cases are about a third of what they were from the peak "on the day".

This is important because of the way this stuff is always presented - as plain common sense and the product of enlightened and caring thinking that relies on obvious data that can be moved with obvious measures.

Sure, had the Facebook poster's mitigation practices been put into play when they wanted it we could be enjoying a situation like Spain. But equally we could have had a flare up as in Germany, Poland, Austria, Greece and all over Eastern Europe. Most of the latter had exactly the restrictions that those voices were calling for a month or so ago - indeed here's Devi Sridhar on 22 October, speaking approvingly of Germany cancelling events and enforcing masks etc:

It’s not surprising, then, that Germany is managing to control its Covid epidemic and bring down the numbers of cases and deaths. England (and the UK) by contrast is seeing a sharp rise in cases. Deaths are now on the increase too: this week’s daily reported toll was the highest since March. While the UK government continues to ask people to be vigilant and keep calm and carry on, the clock is ticking. Time is running out to put in some basic measures to prevent a further spike in cases, the NHS becoming overwhelmed, and very possibly another lockdown. Germany, meanwhile, is keeping its economy and society running, and looks in a strong position heading into the bumpy winter months.

Germany's 7-day death toll passed the UK's two weeks later. It's currently 70% higher heading into 'bumpy' winter.

So I just have two thoughts, really. First, there's a randomness to this stuff that belies certainty about measures and their impact. Second, be careful what you wish for - had the Facebook poster's - and Sridhar's - wish been granted we'd be starting our wave now and it's almost certain more people would have got ill.

Not really sure what you think you're revisiting. You just made some fundamentally inaccurate statements about case data so I pointed them out. If you have a wider point to make feel free to fill your boots but don't go making out that whatever you're blathering about now in some way justifies the fact you were wrong about the data. The Tories may get away with changing the question when their answers are proven to be wrong but it doesn't impress me.

 

[tayside hibee]

Germany is on the rise and more restrictions being put in place

Apparently, the German speaking nations are the highest anti vaccines groups, which surprised me , because I thought they were famous for towing the party line and doing what they were telt. Maybe it is their large immigrant population which is opposing it? .
Regardless, it is an indication that getting the jag is the way forward.

 

[paigntonhibby]

Apparently, the German speaking nations are the highest anti vaccines groups, which surprised me , because I thought they were famous for towing the party line and doing what they were telt. Maybe it is their large immigrant population which is opposing it? .
Regardless, it is an indication that getting the jag is the way forward.

Dinnae you go blaming immigrants , how many immigrants dae you ken in Germany tae make such a sweeping statement.

 

[hibadelic]

Let’s face it lateral flow is a lot of shite even if you were positive you can just tick negative on the test and they send you the negative test result

Apparently, the German speaking nations are the highest anti vaccines groups, which surprised me , because I thought they were famous for towing the party line and doing what they were telt. Maybe it is their large immigrant population which is opposing it? .
Regardless, it is an indication that getting the jag is the way forward.

I suspect it's more to do with the fact that they handled the pandemic better generally and perhaps it hasn't come close to home for many Germans, so less urgency. Similar in NZ and Australia.

 

[Jack]

"According to the "Central Register of Foreign Nationals” (AZR), there were about 11.2 million "foreigners" living in Germany at the end of 2019. This corresponds to an increase of 2.9 percent (313,000 persons) compared to 2018."

Germany has a population of 84,158,769.

 

[GORDONSMITH7]

Germany is on the rise....

Fuck me no again, no again please!



BIG G

 

[Greenmachine]

Johnson announcing all arrivals into the UK will now have to take a PCR test and self-isolate for 10 days until they test negative. All contacts will also have to self-isolate for 10 days. Facemasks rules to be tightened in England....probably to what we currently have in Scotland.

 

[Rocky]

Slightly different perspective on Omicron - maybe this variant will be the one that takes us to a position where we can stop worrying about this fecking virus once and for all. If it turns out to spread like wildfire and out compete all the other variants, but not really cause serious illness that could be a very good outcome.

Still a lot of ifs in there obviously.

 

[Greenmachine]

Vaccine manufacturers seem confident the current vaccines will work well against Omicron.
As has been said, it's still too early to know for sure.

 

[Greenmachine]

Six cases of the new variant Omicron now found in Scotland....

Interesting listening to a South African health expert yesterday on the news...he says that the new variant has only shown mild symptoms so far amongst the people contracting it. Says there is far too much panic around the world for no reason.

 

[hibbybilly]

Got antigen test this morning. Mon the Negatives!

 

[HenryLB]

Not really sure what you think you're revisiting. You just made some fundamentally inaccurate statements about case data so I pointed them out. If you have a wider point to make feel free to fill your boots but don't go making out that whatever you're blathering about now in some way justifies the fact you were wrong about the data. The Tories may get away with changing the question when their answers are proven to be wrong but it doesn't impress me.

I wasn't wrong. The quoted poster cherry picked data from the wrong day to make an argument that had it been followed would have resulted in more cases with people like you cheerleading along.

And in the post above I'm making a general point about healthy scepticism in a fast-moving environment. The situation with - and reaction to - the new variant hasn't exactly diminished my stance on that.

 

[Jack]

Slightly different perspective on Omicron - maybe this variant will be the one that takes us to a position where we can stop worrying about this fecking virus once and for all. If it turns out to spread like wildfire and out compete all the other variants, but not really cause serious illness that could be a very good outcome.

Still a lot of ifs in there obviously.

Six cases of the new variant Omicron now found in Scotland....

Interesting listening to a South African health expert yesterday on the news...he says that the new variant has only shown mild symptoms so far amongst the people contracting it. Says there is far too much panic around the world for no reason.

I might be getting this a wee bit off but I think a more contagious version of the virus with mild symptoms, which the early indications are, could be our way out of this properly IF it becomes the dominant strain.

I think the world would be content to open up and move on if covid could be managed in the same way as flu is just now.

In the meantime I think its correct for governments to take full precautions/shit themselves when significantly new variants appear.

 

[Rocky]

I wasn't wrong.

You were, it's been explained to you in much detail why, including with pictures. I'm afraid I can't use crayons on here to make it any clearer to you.

The quoted poster cherry picked data from the wrong day to make an argument that had it been followed would have resulted in more cases with people like you cheerleading along.

Are you really still banging on about one minor paragraph in a four page post which a) you didn't read or understand properly and b) you didn't understand the data in?

And you can shove your "people like you" patter right up your hole. You've got zero justification for saying that either.

I won't be replying to you again as you've shown yourself to be entirely incapable of reading what's actually being said and instead go on lengthy rants about something else entirely.

 

[Rocky]

Six cases of the new variant Omicron now found in Scotland....

Interesting listening to a South African health expert yesterday on the news...he says that the new variant has only shown mild symptoms so far amongst the people contracting it. Says there is far too much panic around the world for no reason.

I think that doctor was specifically referring to vaccinated people? The unvaccinated / partially vaccinated are still getting it pretty bad in some cases.

 

[Doc Shrink]

You were, it's been explained to you in much detail why, including with pictures. I'm afraid I can't use crayons on here to make it any clearer to you.

Are you really still banging on about one minor paragraph in a four page post which a) you didn't read or understand properly and b) you didn't understand the data in?

And you can shove your "people like you" patter right up your hole. You've got zero justification for saying that either.

I won't be replying to you again as you've shown yourself to be entirely incapable of reading what's actually being said and instead go on lengthy rants about something else entirely.

Love a good barney on the Bounce!






Balances out that other @barney and his feckin steaks.

 

[hibbybilly]

Got antigen test this morning. Mon the Negatives!

New York, here we come!

 

[hibbybilly]

Expert medical was fine, got me my boarding card for getting home, got me on the plane with their details and tested negative yesterday, certificate back by email 10 minutes after I emailed them the proof.

They are not on the Scottish list of providers, which is here.

What type of travel tests do you need to book? Get a coronavirus test – GOV.UK

There is one doing it for a fiver now.

Our Products – !CovidTestingDirect.com

covidtestingdirect.com

Just had phone call from travel agent, return tests changed this morning. Got refund for original but new ones are fuckin dearer. Costing over £100 for both going and coming back. Might have got them cheaper if we had shopped around but got travel agent tae dae it tae save any hassle. Also need tae self isolate until we get negative confirmation. Worra fuckin palaver!

 

[HaarlemShuffler]

Anyone must be mad goin anywhere on holiday these days wi the restrictions and possible quarantines or isolation you may encounter. And it can all change in an hour or two!

Still, good way to keep the new strains movin fae country to country.

I just couldnae go anywhere and feel justified or more importantly, that I could get home again easily.

Just talked wi a guy fae Yorkshire I know here in NL. Him and his missus booked a ridiculously expensive flight to Leeds back when things were even heavier. The flight was later cancelled and they are still tryin to get their dosh back

I'm stayin put for the foreseeable in covid-ridden Holland.

I appreciate things have been less drastic in UK of late so can see why folk are thinking of travelling more there, I guess?

 

[Jack]

Anyone must be mad goin anywhere on holiday these days wi the restrictions and possible quarantines or isolation you may encounter. And it can all change in an hour or two!

Still, good way to keep the new strains movin fae country to country.

I just couldnae go anywhere and feel justified or more importantly, that I could get home again easily.

Just talked wi a guy fae Yorkshire I know here in NL. Him and his missus booked a ridiculously expensive flight to Leeds back when things were even heavier. The flight was later cancelled and they are still tryin to get their dosh back

I'm stayin put for the foreseeable in covid-ridden Holland.

I appreciate things have been less drastic in UK of late so can see why folk are thinking of travelling more there, I guess?

Totally agree. I retired early to go see the world. I can't see me/us going anywhere till next autumn. It's not just the faff of the tests each way or wearing a mask for x hours, it's all the restrictions at the destination which to me make it seem more a endeavour than an experience.

 

[HaarlemShuffler]

Totally agree. I retired early to go see the world. I can't see me/us going anywhere till next autumn. It's not just the faff of the tests each way or wearing a mask for x hours, it's all the restrictions at the destination which to me make it seem more a endeavour than an experience.

You timed that early retirement well

 

[hibbybilly]

Anyone must be mad goin anywhere on holiday these days wi the restrictions and possible quarantines or isolation you may encounter. And it can all change in an hour or two!

Still, good way to keep the new strains movin fae country to country.

I just couldnae go anywhere and feel justified or more importantly, that I could get home again easily.

Just talked wi a guy fae Yorkshire I know here in NL. Him and his missus booked a ridiculously expensive flight to Leeds back when things were even heavier. The flight was later cancelled and they are still tryin to get their dosh back

I'm stayin put for the foreseeable in covid-ridden Holland.

I appreciate things have been less drastic in UK of late so can see why folk are thinking of travelling more there, I guess?

Had this trip booked since @southfieldhibby was a travel agent. Mrs Hibbybilly husnae had a holiday since 2017 so fuck it we’re gaun on this one. It IS a pain in the arse wi all the shite you need but am sure it’ll be awrite once we’re there.

 

[HaarlemShuffler]

Had this trip booked since @southfieldhibby was a travel agent. Mrs Hibbybilly husnae had a holiday since 2017 so fuck it we’re gaun on this one. It IS a pain in the arse wi all the shite you need but am sure it’ll be awrite once we’re there.

I will pray that you don't get there just in time for the Biden mutation

 

[hibbybilly]

I will pray that you don't get there just in time for the Biden mutation

Send yi a pic from Trump Tower D

 

[Jack]

You timed that early retirement well

I managed to get away on some fantastic trips before covid, I spent over 100 days abroad in the year before it kicked in. I'm already looking at more fantastic trips from 2023. 4th January to be precise

 

[HaarlemShuffler]

I managed to get away on some fantastic trips before covid, I spent over 100 days abroad in the year before it kicked in. I'm already looking at more fantastic trips from 2023. 4th January to be precise

You're like the guy who wins Mr Popularity 2021.








Then everybody hates them!

 

[HenryLB]

You were, it's been explained to you in much detail why, including with pictures. I'm afraid I can't use crayons on here to make it any clearer to you.

Are you really still banging on about one minor paragraph in a four page post which a) you didn't read or understand properly and b) you didn't understand the data in?

And you can shove your "people like you" patter right up your hole. You've got zero justification for saying that either.

I won't be replying to you again as you've shown yourself to be entirely incapable of reading what's actually being said and instead go on lengthy rants about something else entirely.

That's the only bit I ever took issue with. You steamed in and said I was wrong even though the data was cherry picked from a different day than the one claimed in order to make it sound worse and suggest an event should be cancelled. Since then the bulk of the rest of the post has been proved wrong as well and in a manner that despite its author's - and your - sanctimony would almost certainly have resulted in worse outcomes.

Let me try this game. Deaths in Scotland are up 1700% in two weeks, why on earth isn't the whole country in lockdown??

 

[joethehibby]

The cases/hospitalisations/deaths are continuing to be too high , on average 100 deaths a week . The absolute majority of hospital cases/ deaths are unvaccinated people . You would think these people would be worried enough to get vaccinated

 

[Weehibbydrew]

The cases/hospitalisations/deaths are continuing to be too high , on average 100 deaths a week . The absolute majority of hospital cases/ deaths are unvaccinated people . You would think these people would be worried enough to get vaccinated

They can't, they're dead.

 

[joethehibby]

They can't, they're dead.

I meant the ones that aren’t vaccinated but not got covidi yet

 

[Jack]

I meant the ones that aren’t vaccinated but not got covidi yet

We all knew what you meant but I thought it was a great reply from @Weehibbydrew. I hope it brings a chill to any unvaccinated person reading it and makes them rethink what they're not doing.

 

[Rocky]

We all knew what you meant but I thought it was a great reply from @Weehibbydrew. I hope it brings a chill to any unvaccinated person reading it and makes them rethink what they're not doing.

Or maybe this will. Horrendous decisions having to be taken in the health service just now.

 

[Zab]

Or maybe this will. Horrendous decisions having to be taken in the health service just now.

Horrible isn’t it.

If someone hasn’t take the vaccine they should have to pay for the medical care, that would change the attitudes of a fair few.

 

[moathibby]

I was at the fitba last week with my nephew Connal, who came over from Glasgow.Turns out he has covid so I got a PCR test at Tynie about an hour ago.I should find out in two days time whether I'm in the clear.If I'm to isolate for 10 days that's cutting it fine for the final.

 

[Westside Green]

I was at the fitba last week with my nephew Connal, who came over from Glasgow.Turns out he has covid so I got a PCR test at Tynie about an hour ago.I should find out in two days time whether I'm in the clear.If I'm to isolate for 10 days that's cutting it fine for the final.

10 days from your test if it's positive. You'll be well rested for the final.

 

[hibbybilly]

Had tae get a PCR tests tae come hame on Tuesday, as per the new regulations. Got them free for a change. Could get a week in Benidorm wi the money we spent on fuckin tests.

 

[Davy]

John Swinney wants us to be tested every time we leave our house! I hate that thing going down my throat.

Cant see me complying..twice a week is plenty for me

 

[Doc Shrink]

John Swinney wants us to be tested every time we leave our house! I hate that thing going down my throat.

Cant see me complying..twice a week is plenty for me

Does the new version not mean up your beak rather than throat as well?