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Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

the graph of this years deaths v average deaths would be quite interesting too
I have wondered this a lot lately.
It's not very easy to find this online just now. All searches take you in the end to corona deaths. ( well it does for me)
 
I have wondered this a lot lately.
It's not very easy to find this online just now. All searches take you in the end to corona deaths. ( well it does for me)
loads of different graphs here
reddit.com: search results - flair_name:"Graphs & Stats"

this one was quite interesting, from 2000 by days other epidemics v covid
 
loads of different graphs here
reddit.com: search results - flair_name:"Graphs & Stats"

this one was quite interesting, from 2000 by days other epidemics v covid
It would have been interesting if they had included seasonal flu in that but I can see why they didn't.
 
25% of deaths are in care homes
 
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I hadn't realized that deaths per year is a very constant figure though probably should have.

This graphs illustrates what an unknown disease from nowhere does to the average norm.?
 
Looking at that graph I’d suggest that deaths are understated massively. 700 deaths up to yesterday and that shows +1500 up to Monday.

Are deaths being registered and collated as normal? I’d presumed registrars might be limited.
 
Looking at that graph I’d suggest that deaths are understated massively. 700 deaths up to yesterday and that shows +1500 up to Monday.

Are deaths being registered and collated as normal? I’d presumed registrars might be limited.

The NRS National Register of Scotland are only published weekly so will be behind the daily Scottish government updates.

Looks like that graphic is around to about 8th April.

I was just looking at the spike to demonstrate what unexpected deaths do you a nomal stable graphline.
 
I've heard from a friend down south about her nearby hospital is split into COVID and non COVID. Tests are coming back negative, and patients placed accordingly. As patients worsen, they are getting chest x rays, and its becoming clear that they have COVID. It might partly explain the huge amount of negative tests, and also our failure to stem the spread if we arent isolating covid patients quickly enough.

Someone I know on this side of the country - younger, but in an at risk group was diagnosed over the phone as likely having covid. They werent initially going to be tested, but an hour later now they are.
 
Imperial College London model on a mortality rate of 0:66% unmitigated reduced from the 0.90% which was figure used in the disastorous forecast of 13th March that so spooked Public Health England.???????

Homeland Security USA claim a mortality rate of 0.15% unmitigated and 0.125% mitigated ie lockdowns and social distancing.

Germany has a reported mortality rate of 0.47% unmitigated.

Seasonal Flu has a defined mortality rate of 0.1%.

SARS has a defined mortality rate of 15% but relatively few infections.

EBOLA has a defined mortality rate of 50% but few infections.

I will try to build up a picture.
 
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It wouldn't be your number 1 pick of the pops indicator but ambulances required for Covid-19 patients in Scotland??????? are now on a downward track.✔?

There is enough live data that this is not a simulation any longer.

Government models will be able to calculate expected ambulances, expected number of infections, expected number in hospital's, expected number in ICU's and sadly expected number of deaths on any given future date based under the current limited lockdown conditions.✔

A 3 weeks further limited lockdown on the downward curve is going to harder to enforce when people see all the key indicators continually decreasing.?

Really impressive adherence by the people of Scotland ??????? so far.?✔
 
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This shows you how tough modelling is as you have to break down by age group as well. This is quite an old graph so Covid-19 figures are a bit high and out of date but you can get the jist.

Imperial College London:
Mortality rate of 0.66%: Unmitigated.

Homeland Security USA:
Mortality rate of 0.15%:Unmitigated and 0.125% mitigated ie Lockdowns,social distancing.No mass gatherings.

Germany:
Mortality rate of 0.47%:Unmitigated.

Seasonal Flu:
Defined mortality rate of 0.1% averaged across all age groups but only really affects over 65's.

SARS:
Defined mortality rate of 15% but relatively few infections.

EBOLA:
Defined mortality rate of 50% but few infections.
 
What's the reason for the difference between the mitigated and unmitigated? Is the assumption with unmitigated that the death rate will be higher because ICU etc will be overwhelmed? If so, I guess the comparison in terms of the underlying "deadliness" of the disease is the mitigated %?
 
What's the reason for the difference between the mitigated and unmitigated? Is the assumption with unmitigated that the death rate will be higher because ICU etc will be overwhelmed? If so, I guess the comparison in terms of the underlying "deadliness" of the disease is the mitigated %?

I think unmitigated is you just do next to nothing and allow the virus to spread naturally.

This was Public Health England??????? and the British plan up until 13th March when they got the updated figures from Imperial College London and realized the NHS and society would be overwhelmed.

Hence the very late switch to lockdown, banning mass gatherings, school closures etc.

So you are right there is extra deaths caused by health service being swamped.
 
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Here is today's daftest graph. It seemingly proves Scotland at least wasn't in a Pandemic as deaths didn't double every 3 days.?.

Some consolation that to 800 or so people and their family and loved ones.?.

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Johnson and Hancock did us a huge favour here and ultimately made the right call.✔

Locking down to save London and their overwhelmed NHS saved many Scottish lives by getting us ahead of the curve.
 
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Here is today's daftest graph. It seemingly proves Scotland at least wasn't in a Pandemic as deaths didn't double every 3 days.?.

Some consolation that to 800 or so people and their family and loved ones.?.

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Johnson and Hancock did us a huge favour here and ultimately made the right call.✔

Locking down to save London and their overwhelmed NHS saved many Scottish lives by getting us ahead of the curve.
Considering the government has been late with every other call and while it's sad for London, many of whom don't get the concept of not going out and social distancing anyway, it's probably meant Scotland was closed down at about the right time, saving lives.

I hear either the tory Scottish Secretary or the leader of the branch office has said the whole UK needs to come out of lockdown together. Disaster for London or disaster for the rest of the UK?
 
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I hadn't realized that deaths per year is a very constant figure though probably should have.

This graphs illustrates what an unknown disease from nowhere does to the average norm.?
I think the problem is this doesn't actually show that the current situation is out of the norm. My understanding is that to understand overlap you need to look at the annual death figures. Many of the deaths attributed to COVID or causing a spike now, may have been deaths that would occur during the year anyway but have been 'brought forward' as it were by COVID.
I think the current thinking is that there is about a two thirds overlap but we won't be able to accurately understand the true impact until well after the pandemic has been brought under control and we are able to see if the death rates on either side of it stay the same or reduce against previous year's graphs.
 
An article on my news feed says there may be as many as 7,500 Covid 19 deaths in Care Homes in England.
The actual figure given is around 270 deaths, but because they're struggling to issue death certificates they're weeks behind.
By christ, Johnson has much to answer for.
 
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Interesting tweets tonight as Sunday Times which is usually quite close to British Government thinking has a report about a possible exit plan based on saving the economy but isolating the over 70's and vulnerable groups until a vaccine is found (FFS forever).?

The First Minister ??????? immediately responded with a guarded response but talking of testing, tracing and isolation.

Far to early to say if thats a different type route for Scotland but its fraught with problems and very tough as Scotland can't secure her borders ?
 
Surely it would be better if it was over 70's who have underlying health issues who are isolated from possible infection ? Something I could completely understand and so would most people. However, no way folk over that age with no underlying health issues should be left in a situation with family unable to visit them for that length of time. As long as proper social distancing was in place and hand washing etc I just don't see the problem ? It won't hold if they try to impose something like this on the elderly....the government and their advisors will know this as well.
 
Surely it would be better if it was over 70's who have underlying health issues who are isolated from possible infection ? No way healthy folk over that age should be left in a situation with family able to visit the for that length of time. It won't hold if they try to impose it....they will know this as well.
I can see both sides to that.
My Dad is 76, is ok health wise and obv haven’t seen him in a while but dunno if i would gamble on his health by visiting him anytime in the next few months.
Garden visits maybe.
 
I can see both sides to that.
My Dad is 76, is ok health wise and obv haven’t seen him in a while but dunno if i would gamble on his health by visiting him anytime in the next few months.
Garden visits maybe.
Don't see any problem with that as long as social distancing and proper cleaning is done. They are not going to be able to get away with isolating the over 70's who have no underlying health issues from family visits. No way will people adhere to that any longer beyond the next few weeks or so at best.
 
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Here is another big name Sunday paper going with exactly the same spin.?.

The overnight British government briefing lobby has been out in force and it looks like "Herd Immunity" has won out over testing , tracing and isolation.

Obviously many many more deaths to come but beefed up NHS should cope but what a bleak outlook for over 70's (that has to be looked at) or those with underlying conditions ?
 
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This graph is a bit out of date but the principal is the same which is that England haven't really taken testing very serious not that the other component countries are any much better.

England??????? leads the strategy though and you cant help but feel that "herd immunity" has been the main plank of their thinking every step of the way.

No right answers but its very different to some other countries but maybe become very similar to others in time as you feel USA will go this way.
 
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Here is another big name Sunday paper going with exactly the same spin.?.

The overnight British government briefing lobby has been out in force and it looks like "Herd Immunity" has won out over testing , tracing and isolation.

Obviously many many more deaths to come but beefed up NHS should cope but what a bleak outlook for over 70's (that has to be looked at) or those with underlying conditions ?

The Sunday Times and Sunday Mail widnae have needed much briefing. All the other Tory rags will fall in line and tow the Party line.

BIG G
 
Sure i read Scotland rate is 0.67

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My granny and grandad - both in their mid eighties, with serious previous medical issues - were taken in to hospital 3 weeks ago, the following day they were both diagnosed with double pneumonia and coronavirus. My parents were told to get up there to see when whilst they could.

Last week it was confirmed they had beaten coronavirus and the pneumonia is clearing up. They need some physio and are still in hospital, but it's looking very good.
 
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Took me a while to understand this graph and its not complete with missing %'s here and there.?.

Left hand side shows what % of the Scottish population is in the age bracket.

Right hand side shows the age demagrophic most at risk.

Doesnt add much except to reinforce that the older you are then the more at risk..
 
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Really wish i could work these things out :(
 
My granny and grandad - both in their mid eighties, with serious previous medical issues - were taken in to hospital 3 weeks ago, the following day they were both diagnosed with double pneumonia and coronavirus. My parents were told to get up there to see when whilst they could.

Last week it was confirmed they had beaten coronavirus and the pneumonia is clearing up. They need some physio and are still in hospital, but it's looking very good.

Just want to update. My granny is getting out tomorrow, and my grandad a few days behind. I can't believe it. I thought we were losing them both. Nothing short of miraculous.

I go to the games with my dad and my grandad, folk on here would've seen us in the Hibs club. 3 weeks ago, I felt I would never be able to do that again. I was truly heartbroken.

God bless the NHS, and all workers doing their thing to help us get through this horrible time.
 
Just want to update. My granny is getting out tomorrow, and my grandad a few days behind. I can't believe it. I thought we were losing them both. Nothing short of miraculous.

I go to the games with my dad and my grandad, folk on here would've seen us in the Hibs club. 3 weeks ago, I felt I would never be able to do that again. I was truly heartbroken.

God bless the NHS, and all workers doing their thing to help us get through this horrible time.

Superb :)
 
Just want to update. My granny is getting out tomorrow, and my grandad a few days behind. I can't believe it. I thought we were losing them both. Nothing short of miraculous.

I go to the games with my dad and my grandad, folk on here would've seen us in the Hibs club. 3 weeks ago, I felt I would never be able to do that again. I was truly heartbroken.

God bless the NHS, and all workers doing their thing to help us get through this horrible time.
Great to read that.
 
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Scotland ??????? really seems to be on the downward good news slope now especially regarding intensive care patients?

There are 500 Intensive Care Units in Scotland and only 170 are being used so the hospitals ICU's must be 2/3 empty plus there is a brand new hospital which had to be built of course but its now just sitting their not being used.

More localised and Lothian with a population of 1 million people have all of 27 Covid-19 patients currently in intensive care. ?✔

Really not the impression your average man in the street thinks.?

Its amazing the magic that governments can do simply when they get their erse in gear?
 
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Scotland ??????? really seems to be on the downward good news slope now especially regarding intensive care patients?

There are 500 Intensive Care Units in Scotland and only 170 are being used so the hospitals ICU's must be 2/3 empty plus there is a brand new hospital which had to be built of course but its now just sitting their not being used.

More localised and Lothian with a population of 1 million people have all of 27 Covid-19 patients currently in intensive care. ?✔

Really not the impression your average man in the street thinks.?

Its amazing the magic that governments can do simply when they get their erse in gear?
Encouraging news there Sam. Still one death from this is one death too many.
 
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Here is a different way of presenting the most up to date information for Lothian.
 
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Here is a different way of presenting the most up to date information for Lothian.
I wonder what that fatality rate represents, it doesn't seem to relate to any numbers on the chart unless I'm missing something. With deaths at 148, which is 15.9% of 931, is it perhaps saying that 783 people who were hospitalised have recovered?
 
I wonder what that fatality rate represents, it doesn't seem to relate to any numbers on the chart unless I'm missing something. With deaths at 148, which is 15.9% of 931, is it perhaps saying that 783 people who were hospitalised have recovered?

I couldn't work it out either but my thoughts are that fatality rate of 15.9%= deaths/number of positive infections * 100.

15.9% is a meaningless number though as it all depends on the amount of tests done of which there aren't many. Thousands of people will have had the virus with minimal symptoms.

Imperial College London work off a fatality rate of 0.66% so if you equate that to 148 deaths then in Lothian there would have been 22,424 positive tests.

148/22,424*100 = 0.66%.

If we live in a Lothian population of nearly 900,000 and assuming 60% to 70% will get the virus to varying degrees then 22,424 indicates the virus has a long way to run.

That 0.66% is very high though and contradicted by other studies who drop it from 0.47% down to 0.12% and then its all split by different age groups.

"Naebody has a fkn scooby" in technichal terms.?
 
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England ??????? (and Wales ??????? ) only but this is such a clever use of graphics to show that England has passed the peak as far as hospital admissions are concerned.✔?

Edit: Scotland ??????? are there as well.?

Bet he could do the same if he had these Scottish ??????? ambulance numbers from earlier.?
 

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