Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

[SlovSam]

View media item 287
It would be fair criticism of the Scottish government ??????? to ask why they seem to be failing to improve the number of tests.

I have no idea why 3rd April is so high (lag info maybe) but they were aiming for a capacity of 3,500 tests a day by the end April which doesn't mean they should do that number but it should be much closer than it is.?

 

[Jack]

View media item 287
It would be fair criticism of the Scottish government ??????? to ask why they seem to be failing to improve the number of tests.

I have no idea why 3rd April is so high (lag info maybe) but they were aiming for a capacity of 3,500 tests a day by the end April which doesn't mean they should do that number but it should be much closer than it is.?

The evidence is that we won't be getting on top of the virus until we have mass testing. All those caring need it for their own safety and so they can carry on working safely. It identifies who's got it, who needs to isolate and where the hot spots are.

3,500 tests a day just isn't good enough. It would take 4 years to cover the population.

 

[Purple & Green]

View media item 287
It would be fair criticism of the Scottish government ??????? to ask why they seem to be failing to improve the number of tests.

I have no idea why 3rd April is so high (lag info maybe) but they were aiming for a capacity of 3,500 tests a day by the end April which doesn't mean they should do that number but it should be much closer than it is.?

What strikes me as well is the huge proportion of negative tests?

Are we testing the wrong people if they are going to likely be negative?

Are the tests wrong?

 

[SlovSam]

What strikes me as well is the huge proportion of negative tests?

Are we testing the wrong people if they are going to likely be negative?

Are the tests wrong?

I don't know much about this area but the testing is mostly in hospitals and there is quite a high bar to be admitted so you would have to have lot of obvious symptoms so agreed would have expected many more positive cases.?

The evidence is that we won't be getting on top of the virus until we have mass testing. All those caring need it for their own safety and so they can carry on working safely. It identifies who's got it, who needs to isolate and where the hot spots are.

3,500 tests a day just isn't good enough. It would take 4 years to cover the population.

The exit strategy is going have to come from Public Health England ??????? via the UK Government.

That debate is raging behind the scenes at the moment of mass testing v herd strategy while the lockdown buys the boffins time.

Presently herd strategy by stealth seems to be winning so lockdown 1 then release and see what happens then lockdown 2/3/4 but less restrictive if required. Beef up the NHS and just manage the death toll.?

Scotland ??????? doesn't have proper borders by land or air so can't go it alone like say New Zealand or Norway who seem to be veering towards mass testing.

It still doesn't explain why both Scotland??????? and Englands ??????? test ratios still look so poor though.

As you say there must be many vulnerable groups like say care home workers who would benefit enormously from being tested.

 

[Amsterdam]

I don't know much about this area but the testing is mostly in hospitals and there is quite a high bar to be admitted so you would have to have lot of obvious symptoms so agreed would have expected many more positive cases.?



The exit strategy is going have to come from Public Health England ??????? via the UK Government.

That debate is raging behind the scenes at the moment of mass testing v herd strategy while the lockdown buys the boffins time.

Presently herd strategy by stealth seems to be winning so lockdown 1 then release and see what happens then lockdown 2/3/4 but less restrictive if required. Beef up the NHS and just manage the death toll.?

Scotland ??????? doesn't have proper borders by land or air so can't go it alone like say New Zealand or Norway who seem to be veering towards mass testing.

It still doesn't explain why both Scotland??????? and Englands ??????? test ratios still look so poor though.

As you say there must be many vulnerable groups like say care home workers who would benefit enormously from being tested.

I agree with what you have said above Sam, have felt this way from the start. Low testing figures & no mention of Contact Tracing equals Herd Immunity.

 

[Amsterdam]

What strikes me as well is the huge proportion of negative tests?

Are we testing the wrong people if they are going to likely be negative?

Are the tests wrong?

My thought on this is cynical perhaps. I think that a number of tests will have been performed on people report that they have symptoms, just to get tested.
Also, from first hand knowledge of a relative involved, the tests are not always showing a correct reading. One patient tested negative on first test, sent home. Next day brought back in only to test positive.

 

[Westside Green]

My thought on this is cynical perhaps. I think that a number of tests will have been performed on people report that they have symptoms, just to get tested.
Also, from first hand knowledge of a relative involved, the tests are not always showing a correct reading. One patient tested negative on first test, sent home. Next day brought back in only to test positive.

70% accuracy leaves a lot of people with the wrong result. Anybody know if the error shows both ways?

 

[Amsterdam]

1,134 tests done in last 24 hours, still no sign of the ’ramping up’ of testing to 1,900 a day never mind 3,500 a day.

 

[Jack]

What strikes me as well is the huge proportion of negative tests?

Are we testing the wrong people if they are going to likely be negative?

Are the tests wrong?

Am I bored or what?

Falling down a rabbit hole of covid articles I came across this little snippet from some Asian country ...

"A patient is deemed fully recovered when two tests conducted with a 24-hour interval show negative results."

I've no idea if the same is true for the UK but it might explain the huge proportion you speak of.

 

[Greenmachine]

NHS just isn't equipped to carry out the volume of testing required..

 

[SlovSam]

View media item 289
Quite a clever use of graphics here though the results are a bit of a mixed bag with the numbers in Scottish hospitals going up but Intensive care Unit patients showing a welcome drop.

Trends are more important than daily movements but we seem to be bobbing along towards a peak but with no discernible drop in either hospital or ICU patients.

 

[SlovSam]

View media item 290
Given most of us will live in Lothian
(population 900,000) then this gives more perspective to the numbers.

Numbers in Lothian hospitals: 277
Numbers in ICU's : 40

The Lothian hospitals then aren't swamped and overrun and in fact will have empty wards and empty beds and empty ICU 's in reasonable numbers.

 

[SlovSam]

View media item 291
Another miserable day on the testing front and the more important general trend is equally misreable.?

The reason might be a lack of cartridges as the Western Isles MP was getting upset about this as they have a real chance at making their islands a Covid-19 free area.

You wouldn't know from the daily Scottish press briefings as one journalist actually asked the question.

"What advice would you give to the people of Scotland over the Easter weekend?."?

FFS. So what reply did you expect the First Minister to give.?

Hold power to account and don't waste everyone's time with the Fckn obvious

 

[greencol]

We have to stop people walking off planes and not being tested. One person walking onto a plane with the virus could mean 100 walking off the plane with the virus.
The ITV reporter Debbie Edward's visited Wuhan in midweek.
She was returning to Beijing after her report in Wuhan.
She had to be tested on leaving Wuhan , and tested on arriving in Beijing.
Even if those tests were negative which they were, she has to isolate for 14 days.
We have to get pro active.

 

[PILTONSTANY]

 

[Amsterdam]

1,251 tests done in last 24 hours, are the opposition parties or media ever going to hold them to account on this?

 

[Purple & Green]

Im really concerned about the use of statistics here - on the face of it 24,313 should mean separate individuals tested - but I'm certain it isn't and contains multiple tests on the same people. Equally 542 deaths - which we know must be individuals, you can't die twice - compared to 5590 positive tests would suggest that 10% who contract the virus die.

That is just garbage, when we know the figures from around the rest of the world are around 1% of victims die.

Now, what I'm being told is when multiple deaths are happening in care homes, they firstly aren't being recorded as COVID19 and secondly tests aren't being carried out, so we might never know the full extent.

But, to extrapolate from the figure of 542 deaths, we could reasonably expect 50,000 positive cases or 1% of the Scottish population. Now, there are a barrowload of assumptions with those figures, and I'm not putting them forward as empirical evidence, but it raises huge concerns where we are with the virus and what is likely to be the path ahead.

Frankly, listening to Matt Hancock this morning filled me with terror. I think @SlovSam is bang on the money here - we need our journalists to be asking difficult questions and holding power to account.

 

[Jack]

According to the emotional Inverness Chairman this afternoon he was in communication with the other No voting clubs all yesterday afternoon and he gave a timeline as follows and has evidence that.

13:50pm: Partick Thistle voted No.

16:24pm: Dundee voted No.

16:39pm: Inverness voted No.

16:52pm: Dundee have definitely voted No confirmed by Dundee secretary to Inverness Chairman.

SPFL say they never received the Dundee vote.

18:00: Dundee secretary confirmed vote was sent but then wanted to resubmit it but was told not to.

Sometime then after 18:00 Dundee sent an email to SPFL saying do not consider our vote.

Dundee have now went underground and aren't speaking to anyone.

FCK me some fall out here which stinks and stinks?

You really will have to get out more and use other threads

 

[Doc Shrink]

Holding @Power to account is a tad harsh too. By all means criticise him for the Lycra, but Corona is even more of a stretch.

 

[Power]

Holding @Power to account is a tad harsh too. By all means criticise him for the Lycra, but Corona is even more of a stretch.

Ach, why no ?

In all seriousness, I’m bashing my heid against a wall with the disregard to advice and guidance on exercise from some of the local population (I’m on the committee of my local ??‍ club) -
It’s time for common sense, going for a short walk or run locally, or a short bike ride, not spending time on your favourite sport or hobby.
Thankfully Hibs is a ‘distraction’ from getting pulled into that rant.

 

[Nex]

Here's a website with a bunch of different graphs an figures all together. Maybes no the best formatted in places but it all being on one page might be of help to anyone so inclined.

Scotland Coronavirus Tracker

Current and historical data of the Coronavirus outbreak in Scotland. Includes breakdowns by region, maps, charts, and more!

www.travellingtabby.com

A quick cross check seems to have figures the same as what's been posted already in the thread.

On the political front while, like everyone, I want more to be done I understand that Holyrood doesn't have all the powers needed to tackle this, the SNP I hope are trying to do their best with tied hands, the Tories here can't complain because the HQ in London appears to be all for doing as little as possible, and Labour are too busy trying to elect a new leader with the Blairites and "Left Wing" drawing knives again. Also Labour run Wales isn't doing anything different.

 

[SlovSam]

Im really concerned about the use of statistics here - on the face of it 24,313 should mean separate individuals tested - but I'm certain it isn't and contains multiple tests on the same people. Equally 542 deaths - which we know must be individuals, you can't die twice - compared to 5590 positive tests would suggest that 10% who contract the virus die.

That is just garbage, when we know the figures from around the rest of the world are around 1% of victims die.

Now, what I'm being told is when multiple deaths are happening in care homes, they firstly aren't being recorded as COVID19 and secondly tests aren't being carried out, so we might never know the full extent.

But, to extrapolate from the figure of 542 deaths, we could reasonably expect 50,000 positive cases or 1% of the Scottish population. Now, there are a barrowload of assumptions with those figures, and I'm not putting them forward as empirical evidence, but it raises huge concerns where we are with the virus and what is likely to be the path ahead.

Frankly, listening to Matt Hancock this morning filled me with terror. I think @SlovSam is bang on the money here - we need our journalists to be asking difficult questions and holding power to account.

542/5,590 is indeed 10% but this 5,590 is positive patient cases from people in hospital or NHS staff or other support staff who have been tested and maybe twice as you say.

The 1% from around the world is from countries that do far more testing of the general population so pick up the thousands who have a wee sore throat and need to lie down for a few days which for the vast majority is all Covid 19 is.

Hence as you say 542/50,000 is much more meaningful._✔

Germany have tested an entire town and I think it something like 0.4% as an expected fatality rate but more worrying was that only 14% of the town had been exposed so 86% hadn't had the virus at all so a long way to go yet.

 

[Jack]

Here's a website with a bunch of different graphs an figures all together. Maybes no the best formatted in places but it all being on one page might be of help to anyone so inclined.

Scotland Coronavirus Tracker

Current and historical data of the Coronavirus outbreak in Scotland. Includes breakdowns by region, maps, charts, and more!

www.travellingtabby.com

A quick cross check seems to have figures the same as what's been posted already in the thread.

On the political front while, like everyone, I want more to be done I understand that Holyrood doesn't have all the powers needed to tackle this, the SNP I hope are trying to do their best with tied hands, the Tories here can't complain because the HQ in London appears to be all for doing as little as possible, and Labour are too busy trying to elect a new leader with the Blairites and "Left Wing" drawing knives again. Also Labour run Wales isn't doing anything different.

It includes a stat for "Deaths Compared to Previous Years", something I've been wondering about while official figures don't include this that and the next thing.

These figures are from the beginning of March up to last Sunday.

The difference between the average and 2020 is a staggering 643.

That's a markup of x2.25.

Avg deaths last 5 years	1,098​
2020 deaths	1,741​
Covid deaths, official	282​

Edited.

 

[SlovSam]

View media item 292
For the benefit of the understandably scared auld grannys like my mum who only watches BBC news and get upset about 900 deaths in England yesterday, 950 deaths today and 1,000 tomorrow and 1,200 in New York, I always like to show her local reality.

Most us live in Lothian population 900,000 and their are currently 262 patients in hospital and 36 in intensive care and 41 people have sadly died.

Not good ?but perspective.?

 

[SlovSam]

View media item 294
View media item 293
I wonder if there is enough evidence here to say that the Covid-19 outbreak has peaked in the Lothian area but is still not quite under control in the Glasgow area.?

I don't follow the English figures in detail but this example of variation raises the strategic possibility that when it comes to an exit strategy what is good for England might not be good for Scotland and vice versa regarding lockdown 2/3/4 or mass testing if indeed that's the end game.

 

[Amsterdam]

View media item 294
View media item 293
I wonder if there is enough evidence here to say that the Covid-19 outbreak has peaked in the Lothian area but is still not quite under control in the Glasgow area.?

I don't follow the English figures but it raises the possibility that what is good for England might not be good for Scotland and vice versa regarding lockdown 2/3/4 or mass testing if indeed that's the end game.

End game now needs to be based around contact tracing & testing. neither can be done until the app is up & running for us all to register. Adequate testing then needs to back up the data we provide via the app. This will possibly lead to us having to be tested multiple times, until some sort of vaccine is found.

 

[SlovSam]

View media item 295
Here is the rather pathetic number of tests that Scotland, England, Wales and NI have done to date and so far testing isn't on the agenda.?.

That's not to say it won't be but as yet there is no exit strategy and with only about 10% of the population having had exposure to the virus then as soon as lockdown1 ends then after a brief respite a less restrictive lockdown 2 then gets reimposed.

The exit strategy debate is still raging in England of mass testing/apps v Herd immunity and so far "Herd immunity by stealth" seems to be ahead.

So ease off lockdown 1 and see what happens, impose less severe lockdown 2 and see what happens, impose lockdown 3 etc etc but keep beefing up the NHS along the way and isolate vulnerable groups but let the virus burn through the population.

There is a 3rd way which is to ease down the lockdowns to open the economy but accompany this with an aggressive test and trace strategy such as Norway, Iceland and I think Denmark and this might work well in small countries who can secure their borders.✔?.

With dedication and organization and aggressive testing large countries like Germany are already on this path as well.✔

That "go it alone" English bravado mindset that was so disastrous up to 12th March seems to have gone and London must be looking hard at this option also and despite their idealogical differences it might be a good idea to coordinate with European practice as the virus doesnt respect borders.?

 

[PILTONSTANY]

Poor stuff

 

[Rocky]

Poor stuff

View attachment 2338

Better together aye

 

[Hibee Kev]

BBC News this morning suggesting figures are being massaged such that deaths in care homes are not being included in the overall death toll? ?

 

[Jack]

BBC News this morning suggesting figures are being massaged such that deaths in care homes are not being included in the overall death toll? ?

In England.

In Scotland they're added but if I recall correctly there's a day or twos delay.

The stats will be all over the place just now with it being the Easter Weekend - and that will be the same for most Christian countries I'd imagine.

 

[Norwayhibs]

BBC News this morning suggesting figures are being massaged such that deaths in care homes are not being included in the overall death toll? ?

Anybody know why deaths in care homes are not being included in England and Wales ?

 

[bigmanandy]

Anybody know why deaths in care homes are not being included in England and Wales ?

Its reckoned the numbers are pretty big and the Tories dont want to expose there mistakes.

 

[greencol]

Anybody know why deaths in care homes are not being included in England and Wales ?

The cynic in me says it's to keep their numbers down.
Its hospital deaths only down south.
They've screwed up big time on this virus, and the problem is it's very hard to hide bodies.
Boris's 'brexit' GE win means he's been exposed as the useless lump of lard he is.
He thought his time as PM was going to be a swan around 'getting Brexit done'.
Fucking prick.

 

[Norwayhibs]

The cynic in me says it's to keep their numbers down.
Its hospital deaths only down south.
They've screwed up big time on this virus, and the problem is it's very hard to hide bodies.
Boris's 'brexit' GE win means he's been exposed as the useless lump of lard he is.
He thought his time as PM was going to be a swan around 'getting Brexit done'.
Fucking prick.

I’m with you on this one , I have read somewhere that care home deaths can be as high as 3000.

 

[SlovSam]

Anybody know why deaths in care homes are not being included in

In England.

In Scotland they're added but if I recall correctly there's a day or twos delay.

The stats will be all over the place just now with it being the Easter Weekend - and that will be the same for most Christian countries I'd imagine.

In England the death statistics are the headline figures on which ultimately politicians are going to be judged so its not that surprising they want them to be as low as possible.

Scotland moved quickly to include all deaths in their stats by using the National Registers of Scotland numbers so were much more transparent though their motive would be to encourage people to stay at home.

Andrew Neil of BBC who is really growing on me for his attention to detail posted a graph that showed the"true" English position which related to last week.

View media item 296

 

[Purple & Green]

the graph of this years deaths v average deaths would be quite interesting too

 

[SlovSam]

View media item 297
This one is quite interesting as Scotland makes up 8.2% of the population.

Good to see Scotland testing more at 10.9% but the actual numbers are still quite pathetic.?

Why should so many less people get infected in Scotland ??????? at only 6.8% and following on from that Scotland's death rate is a very low 5.1% and is probably even less given England ???????dont count care home deaths.

Two reasons I can think of is that the lockdown was implemented to save London from disaster but that was very beneficial to Scotland as the early you lockdown the less infections hit your hospitals.

Secondly Scotland is far more rural than the many English towns and regions.

 

[Jack]

@SlovSam

I also think the mass transit systems they have in England is an issue, not just the crammed underground I think more of their commuter trains are like sardine tins.

The Liverpool Vs Atletico Spains epicentre and a major cuddy hop with around 200,000 in total attending just before lockdown didn't help.

Scotland does have its areas of high density population. The Leith Walk area being one of the highest in Europe!

 

[HaarlemShuffler]

@SlovSam

I also think the mass transit systems they have in England is an issue, not just the crammed underground I think more of their commuter trains are like sardine tins.

The Liverpool Vs Atletico Spains epicentre and a major cuddy hop with around 200,000 in total attending just before lockdown didn't help.

Scotland does have its areas of high density population. The Leith Walk area being one of the highest in Europe!

Was skypin a French mate o mine yesterday and he was sayin similar about the footy, a CL game hub (Lyon v someone i think) that caused a lot of infections there.

I am not optimistic about fitba being back over soon at all.