Brexit

[Purple & Green]

Theresa May will always put the Tory party before the country or anything else. I think no deal is virtually certain on that basis.

 

[southfieldhibby]

So on the basis of that argument all members of the House of Lords are 'elected'?

No, because that's not how everyone is elected to the House of Lords.But you know that I'm sure?

Nothing wrong with bicameral governments, nothing wrong with government appointed members of a second chamber. The issue becomes more muddied when the number is unlimited and they join hereditary members. So comparing that chamber with EU commissioners is silly.

 

[Rocky]

Femi Oluwole's summary of the workings of the parliament and commissioners is quite good:

 

[aggie]

For me it's a corrupt cartel. It's not run for the people of Europe. It's run for business. All these unelected commissioners.

See, this is one I hear a lot, and it just seems wilfully disingenuous. As @southfieldhibby has pointed out, they are not "unelected", at least not wholly so. And I think this is an important distinction to make in conjunction with your point about it being a "corrupt cartel" who runs things on behalf of business.

Do you really think the alternative is better? Like, really?

The degree of accountability of EU commissions seems to me to be a world away from the alternative you voted for, and not in a good way. You think that turning over the running of the world - or at the very least the decisive influence in policy and decision making - to Exxon Mobil, Gazprom, Berkshire Hathaway, China Mobile, Amazon, PetroChina etc is going to give you more accountability?? How "elected" are these fcukers? Because make no mistake, leaving the EU absolutely and inarguably accelerates those conditions.

And the idea that this will in fact be mitigated by "taking back control", AKA repatriating absolute sovereignty to the British state, will mean that our government will heroically resist the influence of global capital in a way that the EU doesn't seems to me almost criminally naive, and certainly wilfully ignorant (and I'm directing this broadly at the electorate who supposedly voted Leave on this premise, not you personally - although you are voluntarily including yourself in this bloc). I mean, have you watched the people currently at the helm? Are you seeing them? They fcuking are a corrupt cartel, and their interests absolutely are big business at the expense of every fcuker else.

Unless you think that the UK is miraculously going to elect Corbyn's 1970s fantasy, which wilfully ignores the realities of a globalised world, then it seems to me that you'd be mad to reject the EU, which for all its flaws is actually enacting legislation that these people and interests explicitly fear and loathe.

So on the basis of that argument all members of the House of Lords are 'elected'?

Even they are more meaningfully "elected" than the board of Citigroup or Royal Dutch Shell, and crucially are at least fcukin visible.

You're definitely right that their culture is heavily opposed to the EU's new regs and they're terrified of its tax laws, so have been big advocates to get out for that reason.

But this notion that hedge funds are all going to make billions and therefore engineered it isn't the whole story. For their overall position most funds aren't like Crispin Odey's and the other bears - ie set up medium/long term to profit from falling UK markets. The majority prefer a strong economy with rising equities at least most of the time, which isn't to say that they won't opportunistically try to gain from something like Brexit, but their long-term net position - and that of big capital generally - is based on rising stock markets.

Odey's funds lost 60% of their value in early 2018 because the economy was much more buoyant than he'd bet so these guys aren't super svengalis pulling the strings at will. Rees Mogg's funds are all in emerging markets afaik so I'm not sure if brexit will have much effect on them. He and others like him will certainly already have hedged their UK-related positions by doing stuff like buying dollars etc but it's a defensive part of their strategy for most, not an Odey-style 'bet the farm' on disaster.

But don't get me wrong, I think these guys are about the biggest arseholes alive.

Fair comment, but the fact remains - they won't be in the poorhouse when the chickens come home to roost.

But @Smurf, as Henry here says: "their culture is heavily opposed to the EU's new regs and they're terrified of its tax laws, so have been big advocates to get out for that reason" - do you not see this? And do you not see how ridiculous that makes the proposition that the EU is nothing more than some "big corporate" shill?

Don't get me wrong, I know it's not perfect; but I nonetheless voted Remain because it was demonstrably the least shit option by quite some distance when you look at the "global corporate interest" context. Jesus Christ.

 

[Smurf]

Theresa May will always put the Tory party before the country or anything else. I think no deal is virtually certain on that basis.

I agree on the first point. She's definitely party ahead of country.

 

[Smurf]

No, because that's not how everyone is elected to the House of Lords.But you know that I'm sure?

Nothing wrong with bicameral governments, nothing wrong with government appointed members of a second chamber. The issue becomes more muddied when the number is unlimited and they join hereditary members. So comparing that chamber with EU commissioners is silly.

My understanding is that the only new members to the House of Lords are appointed. So the comparison isn't silly IMO. Saying Commissioners are elected isn't silly it's bonkers! They've got real power and have no democratic mandate.

 

[southfieldhibby]

That's a huge stretch! He obviously meant democratically elected in the sense that they could be removed by a mass vote in which all the electorate can participate.

I am a firm remainer but there are big problems with democratic representation in the EU, it has behaved pretty badly in lots of ways, especially to Greece, and it's partially created and then ignored crises on its borders. It's pretty uncontroversial to think that it needs reformed.

I think there's a really good chance of No Deal. And if it happens there's subsequently a very good chance that we will face a chaotic six months or more, not ruling out stuff like breakdowns in public order, swift rises in unemployment, food supply issues etc.

My understanding is that the only new members to the House of Lords are appointed. So the comparison isn't silly IMO. Saying Commissioners are elected isn't silly it's bonkers! They've got real power and have no democratic mandate.

I can't disagree with either of these posts, but I think the frenzy over these 28 people who can't do anything without it passing through the hands of the elected Euro MPs has been overstated in the extreme.

 

[Smurf]

I think there's every possibility that the UK Government will refuse the inevitable Scottish Government request for a Scottish Independence referendum. Rightly the Scottish Government will proceed with one anyway... If the UK stays within the EU in someway I wonder if the EU will treat the result of that Scottish referendum any differently to how they have in Catalonia?

 

[aggie]

From the FT:

"Despite 18 months of talks, Japan and the UK have failed to make significant breakthroughs on a new trade deal.

The differences of position, which the Hunt/Fox letter acknowledges as “challenging issues”, centre around Japan’s refusal to accept a simple “cut and paste” of the terms of the EU-Japan agreement ratified last year.

Instead, its officials have been told to negotiate as they would any other trade accord, and to seek better terms from the UK than Japan won through its long haggle with the much larger EU."

Well colour me gobsmacked. The UK doesn't have the same negotiating clout as the EU. Who knew?

 

[southfieldhibby]

Good post M.

What do you see as penalties down the road?

We'd be remaining on the same terms as we have at the moment. The only thing I can think of is it might take a while to again become one of the more influential members as Westminster has done it's best to diminish our credibility.

I expect the rebate may come under serious pressure. Not totally, but various countries will start asking questions.

 

[bigmanandy]

Bye Honda, to think some brexiteers are saying we will just not buy there cars anymore lmao

 

[HenryLB]

I can't disagree with either of these posts, but I think the frenzy over these 28 people who can't do anything without it passing through the hands of the elected Euro MPs has been overstated in the extreme.

Yep absolutely. Ironically it often seems to come from people who barely vote anyway and who are always saying that all politicians are awful so what's the point etc.

 

[HenryLB]

Well colour me gobsmacked. The UK doesn't have the same negotiating clout as the EU. Who knew?

Where I live just shades Remain but there's lots of brexiters. Some I speak to have thoughtful and thought-provoking arguments but it's notable that the vast majority genuinely think that we are much more powerful than 'foreigners' due to some sort of innate intellect and toughness, and that this makes Brexit desirable (because they're holding us back) and simple (because we are stronger and smarter than them).

Now that this is unraveling their only way of rationalising it is to assume the EU have 'cheated' in some way. Never mind that this should have been impossible since we were not only supposed to be cleverer but also in realpolitik terms holding the whip hand. It's an almighty mess for which they have already selected their scapegoats.

 

[southfieldhibby]

Yep absolutely. Ironically it often seems to come from people who barely vote anyway and who are always saying that all politicians are awful so what's the point etc.

It's one strand of reasoning for making voting compulsory, even if there's a 'none of the above' option.

 

[southfieldhibby]

24 days to departure day and its beginning to take on a more tangible feel of things altering.

28 days prior to folk going on holiday you can generally check folk in for flights. In the last couple of days I've had to decline 3 separate bookings for check in due to them not having 6 months left on their expiry date from their return date...if you've had extra time put on your passport from a previous one that'll be even longer.


So if you're travelling this year folks- or at least in the next couple of months- make sure your passport is hunky dory.

This could all change in the next 3 weeks obviously, but the inconvenience for folk to get new passports early is ridic.

 

[aggie]

Reckon the EU are gonna cave on the backstop? Looking like it to me...

 

[Jack]

Reckon the EU are gonna cave on the backstop? Looking like it to me...

I doubt it and I certainly hope not. I'm not sure the EU negotiators have a mandate to allow them to do so.

I hope it will be an extension, I've read anything between 2 to 21 months. Whatever, in that time there will be a second vote and we'll stay in under our current agreements.

If it's at the thick end of that there will then be an election with each of the main parties desperate to lose.

The SNP will make great strides towards independence but I doubt the gun will be fired. I think if we stay in the EU so many folk will breath a huge sign of relief and cop out of political interest. A few more years of Westminster incompetence might change that.

If the UK does leave the EU all bets are off and I reckon the EU will be falling over themselves to support Scottish independence.

 

[bigmanandy]

The deal remains unchanged despite Maybots ‘legal assurances’

 

[aggie]

The deal will pass; if not today, then at the next "meaningful vote". They are all bricking it that there might be no Brexit at all.

 

[bigmanandy]

The deal will pass; if not today, then at the next "meaningful vote". They are all bricking it that there might be no Brexit at all.

Dont think it will pass today although I think it will be tight it looks as if DUP and ERG will vote against the deal a few in the house appear to have accepted this will probably be the only deal and it doesn’t matter how shite it is.

 

[SuperTortolano]

 

[bigmanandy]

Looks like we’re going to have a 3rd meaningful vote, Maybot is a disgrace how the feck is she still in a job, house has voted down her deal twice and they’re probably going to bring it back again, jeez

 

[southfieldhibby]

Absolute scenes tonight. May voting against her own proposal, ministers- including mundell- abstaining against a 3 line whip, trying to sneak a 3rd vote on her deal in tomorrow and general confusion.

Seems bastani and coo have been out doing a dirty deal with Lega Nord will block any request for an extension.

Caroline Cadwallr on Twitter is a good follow

 

[Jack]

The 'good news' is that No Deal is off the table

The bad news is someone has nicked the table

 

[greencol]

May is done for.
Gove and his tribe are circling her carcass.
Beware the Ides of March, Theresa!

 

[Westside Green]

May is done for.
Gove and his tribe are circling her carcass.
Beware the Ides of March, Theresa!

Assassination tomorrow?

 

[greencol]

Assassination tomorrow?

Dunno?
The Tories dont do history.
It shows them in a bad light.

 

[southfieldhibby]

May is done for.
Gove and his tribe are circling her carcass.
Beware the Ides of March, Theresa!

Seriously doubt it. No one wants the job she's got. Deal can't be altered, HoC can't agree, Conservative party leader elections take months, and they're miles ahead in the polls of Labour.

Given all that, she's doing quite a spectacular job I think.

 

[Westside Green]

Dunno?
The Tories dont do history.
It shows them in a bad light.

Shame, i was hoping you were a modern day Suprinna

 

[greencol]

Shame, i was hoping you were a modern day Suprinna

Spurinna?

 

[Westside Green]

Spurinna?

The one who told Julius Caesar that he was getting it.

 

[Purple & Green]

Seems to be a growing belief she will get her deal through next week. Truly dreadful governance by all involved.

What is now my over riding concern is how we overcome the prospect of a hard border between Scotland and England should we ever get the chance of another independence referendum. We may be out of the Eu forever.

 

[southfieldhibby]

Seems to be a growing belief she will get her deal through next week. Truly dreadful governance by all involved.

What is now my over riding concern is how we overcome the prospect of a hard border between Scotland and England should we ever get the chance of another independence referendum. We may be out of the Eu forever.

Her getting her deal thru is a good thing I think? I regards to independence? Regulatory allignment between NI and RoI can be transposed to Scotland and England.

 

[Greenmachine]

Seems to be a growing belief she will get her deal through next week. Truly dreadful governance by all involved.

What is now my over riding concern is how we overcome the prospect of a hard border between Scotland and England should we ever get the chance of another independence referendum. We may be out of the Eu forever.

I think she will get her deal ratified next week. The default position is leaving with no deal and they have already voted to prevent that happening. The Brexiteers will realise it's either May's deal or a pointless extension of A50 which the EU will only allow anyway if they see that there is something tangible we are likely to agree on.
May's deal is a compromise which it was always going to be. It's not perfect by any means but it's damage limitation. She will go soon afterwards.
The next big thing will be the push for another Scottish independence vote in the next year or so. Problem is there is still nowhere near enough support for independence in Scotland.

 

[Purple & Green]

Would Brexit have played out differently if maybot had kept her majority?

 

[Greenmachine]

Would Brexit have played out differently if maybot had kept her majority?

Undoubtedly. We would have had a deal agreed months ago.

 

[moathibby]

The one who told Julius Caesar that he was getting it.

That was a play not History.

 

[Doc Shrink]

That was a play not History.

Ouch.

Et tu Moaty.

 

[Westside Green]

That was a play not History.

It was all Greek to me.

 

[aggie]

What is now my over riding concern is how we overcome the prospect of a hard border between Scotland and England should we ever get the chance of another independence referendum. We may be out of the Eu forever.

May's deal I think will basically sink independence. Part of me was secretly hoping for the No Deal catastrophe which would have all but guaranteed it...

Her getting her deal thru is a good thing I think? I regards to independence? Regulatory allignment between NI and RoI can be transposed to Scotland and England.

...because while this may be true, the fact is that May's "Brexit" isn't really a Brexit in any meaningful sense. Things will largely continue as they were...

The next big thing will be the push for another Scottish independence vote in the next year or so. Problem is there is still nowhere near enough support for independence in Scotland.

...and as a result, you're right, and I don't think there ever will be; for the simple reason that it failed the last time: there's just too many "I'm alright Jack" apathetic spineless fcuks in Scotland, who even after what we've witnessed from Westminster in the intervening years will mumble "divisive", "history", "friends in the north", and other such pishy abdications, and vote No for "a quiet life". The fact is, too high a proportion of Scotland's electorate are selfish, miserable, parochial Uncle Toms.