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Thread: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

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    IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    all an american problem is it Gordon, you mad socialist prick.

    how many times are that lot going to bankrupt this nation.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    I worry that the full scale of the problem is not being disclosed by Labour in the hope they can hide it away and things will turn round.

    It is very unlikely to turn round and the danger is that they do a Nick Leeson on the economy. When it gets out things will get very much worse.

    Brown let the housing bubble develop to create a false level of prosperity based on debt to mask the fact that globalisation has fecked our economy - esp. in manufacturing.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Colr View Post
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    I worry that the full scale of the problem is not being disclosed by Labour in the hope they can hide it away and things will turn round.

    It is very unlikely to turn round and the danger is that they do a Nick Leeson on the economy. When it gets out things will get very much worse.

    Brown let the housing bubble develop to create a false level of prosperity based on debt to mask the fact that globalisation has fecked our economy - esp. in manufacturing.
    i think it's worse than that.

    i read the other day (dunno if it's true) that manufacturing grew 20% during the last 10 years of tory rule and has grown 0% under labour.

    i agree that globalisation has fundamentally $#@!ed the west, and have posted on it many times. however i believe brown had something worse in mind.

    i think he has been systematically building a client population in an engorged public sector, to lose the one public housing used to supply. i think this, plus his socialist spending and legislative programme have been his only priorities.

    he created the bubble to cream of money to provide the fractional reserve he required to borrow to fund all this madness.

    when you think back and look at the big picture - he thwarted anything progressive blair, field or whoever tried to do. he's been trying to turn britain into east germany all along, and he's nearly there.

    i think he's lost his marbles tbh. he's in the metaphorical bunker, and his lies are becoming more extraordinary by the week - so much so i don't believe they actually are lies, but delusions.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by egb_hibs View Post
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    i think it's worse than that.

    i read the other day (dunno if it's true) that manufacturing grew 20% during the last 10 years of tory rule and has grown 0% under labour.

    i agree that globalisation has fundamentally $#@!ed the west, and have posted on it many times. however i believe brown had something worse in mind.

    i think he has been systematically building a client population in an engorged public sector, to lose the one public housing used to supply. i think this, plus his socialist spending and legislative programme have been his only priorities.

    he created the bubble to cream of money to provide the fractional reserve he required to borrow to fund all this madness.

    when you think back and look at the big picture - he thwarted anything progressive blair, field or whoever tried to do. he's been trying to turn britain into east germany all along, and he's nearly there.

    i think he's lost his marbles tbh. he's in the metaphorical bunker, and his lies are becoming more extraordinary by the week - so much so i don't believe they actually are lies, but delusions.
    It is worse than that.

    Your figure of 0% is wrong. Look at jobs Manufacturing jobs have gone from 4.2miilion in 97 to2.85million in 07.

    Real average earnings have been falling masked by debt.

    Students have been encouraged to take massive debt at the age of 18 to fund course which have little prospect of providing them with the income required to pay them off.

    Look at our trade balance. Then look at our trade balance with Chine and India. Thiese emerging economies who have taken our jobs are getting richer and buying more but not from us.

    Look at UK Reatils sales deflators.

    This is a defining moment in our history - things will never be the same again.

    Brown has been found out. He was as full of $#@! as the City Boys and he's trying to hide the evidence.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    I think you will find that Gordon Browns more recent policies have lent themselves to the style of John Maynard Keaynnes (sp) than anything considered by Marx.it seems to me the world is rapidly rushing towards a state capitalist solution-a mode of production already tried out by the eastern block up until the collapse of the berlin wall in 89.It didn't work then and it won't work now.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    re manufacturing, there was an interesting piece in the LA Times about how the stimulus checks (tax rebates I think) are not going to help. So what if everybody gets a $1,000 check and spends it on a TV made in china etc, it only helps China (or whatever country manufactures the goods) as that is where the money ends up.
    Charlie don't surf !

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Colr View Post
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    It is worse than that.

    Your figure of 0% is wrong. Look at jobs Manufacturing jobs have gone from 4.2miilion in 97 to2.85million in 07.

    Real average earnings have been falling masked by debt.

    Students have been encouraged to take massive debt at the age of 18 to fund course which have little prospect of providing them with the income required to pay them off.

    Look at our trade balance. Then look at our trade balance with Chine and India. Thiese emerging economies who have taken our jobs are getting richer and buying more but not from us.

    Look at UK Reatils sales deflators.

    This is a defining moment in our history - things will never be the same again.

    Brown has been found out. He was as full of $#@! as the City Boys and he's trying to hide the evidence.
    how depressing.

    i doubt we've ever had a worse chancellor, or indeed a worse government.

    economic ruin, social breakdown, authoritarianism, waste on an olympian scale....

    can anyone remember what the 'new' bit in new labour was meant to be?

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by moathibby View Post
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    I think you will find that Gordon Browns more recent policies have lent themselves to the style of John Maynard Keaynnes (sp) than anything considered by Marx.it seems to me the world is rapidly rushing towards a state capitalist solution-a mode of production already tried out by the eastern block up until the collapse of the berlin wall in 89.It didn't work then and it won't work now.
    brown has used the market to generate the reserve for state borrowing to fund his socialist programme. the role of the market there is the only divergence from 'full' socialism. even then, you keep telling me that every actual socialist regime was 'state capitalist'. that nicely describes what brown has done economically.

    what the money was spent on though? pure socialism:

    the infrastructure of a surveillance state, divisive and destructive social policy, laws laws and more laws, croneys croneys and more croneys, bloating the state commissariat, shovelling great drifts of money into the gaping maw of inefficient bureaucracies, statistics, statistics and tractor statistics, command, control, and legislate...ruin, destruction and the death of hope.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Exactly you have perfectly described a regime rushing towards state capitalism.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by moathibby View Post
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    Exactly you have perfectly described a regime rushing towards state capitalism.
    which is socialism to everyone else.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by BurbankHibee View Post
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    re manufacturing, there was an interesting piece in the LA Times about how the stimulus checks (tax rebates I think) are not going to help. So what if everybody gets a $1,000 check and spends it on a TV made in china etc, it only helps China (or whatever country manufactures the goods) as that is where the money ends up.
    That's completely correct.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    We need Ken Clark and Vince "Cassandra" Cable.

    Some form of Tory/Liberal unity government is required to rebuild the country's capacity.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Colr View Post
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    That's completely correct.
    I tend not to buy Chinese products now.
    Charlie don't surf !

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Serious economics guy from world bank/IMF on Newsnight tonight praising Brown's handling of the economy...

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    where were the very clever people at imf 12/18 months ago. why didn't they scream recession then? i am not very clever at politics or economics. but i am pi55ed off at all these so called money experts who predict the recession will last into 2010. how can they predicict the end, when they could'nt predict the start?


    GGTTH

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by hibbychubbs View Post
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    where were the very clever people at imf 12/18 months ago. why didn't they scream recession then? i am not very clever at politics or economics. but i am pi55ed off at all these so called money experts who predict the recession will last into 2010. how can they predicict the end, when they could'nt predict the start?
    there were people predicting it. they just didn't feature heavily on the Brown Broadcasting Corp.

    nobody knows when it will end, they're just taking a punt based on the average length of recent depressions.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Smurf View Post
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    Serious economics guy from world bank/IMF on Newsnight tonight praising Brown's handling of the economy...
    there's always one.

    is that the same thing though Smurf? he may be praising brown's response to the crisis (though i don't know why) but that's a seperate question from how bad it's going to hit us....which is all Brown's fault.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by moathibby View Post
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    Exactly you have perfectly described a regime rushing towards state capitalism.
    So what is your preferred economic model moat? State capitalism is socialism as egb has said, and I assumed that you would have been in favour of it.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by egb_hibs View Post
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    there's always one.

    is that the same thing though Smurf? he may be praising brown's response to the crisis (though i don't know why) but that's a seperate question from how bad it's going to hit us....which is all Brown's fault.
    Dude he was praising Brown's handling of the economy compared to the USA in the past 8 years....

    I do think there's sound reason to knock Brown over this.

    However, i can't really recall anyone saying "Why are we increasing health/education/oversaeas development/transport/ etc etc spending by such an extent over and above inflation - we should be saving it for a rainy day".

    The left (including Lib Dems & SNP etc) were calling for more spending and the Tories were promising to match it.

    Ok with hindsight Brown should have stopped the 125% mortgages and available personal credit etc etc. However, can you imagine the outcry from the Tories, Lib Dems & media at the control freakery of New Labour telling us how much we can borrow and spend?

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Smurf View Post
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    Dude he was praising Brown's handling of the economy compared to the USA in the past 8 years....

    I do think there's sound reason to knock Brown over this.

    However, i can't really recall anyone saying "Why are we increasing health/education/oversaeas development/transport/ etc etc spending by such an extent over and above inflation - we should be saving it for a rainy day".

    The left (including Lib Dems & SNP etc) were calling for more spending and the Tories were promising to match it.

    Ok with hindsight Brown should have stopped the 125% mortgages and available personal credit etc etc. However, can you imagine the outcry from the Tories, Lib Dems & media at the control freakery of New Labour telling us how much we can borrow and spend?
    Agreed. It all seems far too convenient for folk to now turn round and say all that has gone on was wrong. If it was so catastrophic then how come there was no fight put up about it.

    Talk of putting it aside for a rainy day doesn't really equate either; surely if that was the case then the rainy day would never have arrived anyway?
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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Can't some kant just write the fecking debt off?

    Who do we owe it to? Naeb'dy.

    Can brown please help me like he helped the banks, like the US help their financial industry and pay off my debts?
    Happythankyoumoreplease.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Brainwrong View Post
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    Can't some kant just write the fecking debt off?

    Who do we owe it to? Naeb'dy.

    Can brown please help me like he helped the banks, like the US help their financial industry and pay off my debts?
    I believe we can, kind of. There was a bloke from the bank of England on radio five live last week saying that, worst case scenario, the bank can just create more money. Not physically printing more notes but chucking a zero on the end somewhere I'm assuming! I think he said this was the route Japan went down in the 1990's. Maybe someone can tell me otherwise?

    Another point, when does a recession become a depression, anyone know? I think the definition of a recession is a 2/3 annual shrinking economy? Again, I'm by no means 100% on this!
    "Life goes by pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." - Ferris Bueller

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Brainwrong View Post
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    Can't some kant just write the fecking debt off?

    Who do we owe it to? Naeb'dy.

    Can brown please help me like he helped the banks, like the US help their financial industry and pay off my debts?
    Makes too much sense, b.

    They'll never go for that - it would mean people with power losing out.

    If the IMF were too stupid not to see this coming how come we are supposed to trust them on how long it will last?

    Seems to me someone in charge in the UK has to gamble on a new manufacturing base. Thatchers gamble of the peasants serving coffee, cake, coke and coke to the non-productive paper pushers has fallen flat on it's erse, it never really took off anyway as it was all built on nothing and Nu-Lab are also to blame for sitting doing nothing for years as well.

    Someone on question time a few weeks ago saying the gamble should be taken on manufacturing plant for new renewable energy industries. That would take courage, energy and imagination. However those with the power to kick-start anything resembling this are too busy looking for bogus cash parliamentary backhanders and imagination in the manufacturing side of things doesn't get passed out-sourcing to other countries.

    What will happen more likely is that they will sit on their hands bemaoning the policies of other parties and pointing fingers until chaos hits.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Hibee Kev View Post
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    I believe we can, kind of. There was a bloke from the bank of England on radio five live last week saying that, worst case scenario, the bank can just create more money. Not physically printing more notes but chucking a zero on the end somewhere I'm assuming! I think he said this was the route Japan went down in the 1990's. Maybe someone can tell me otherwise?

    Another point, when does a recession become a depression, anyone know? I think the definition of a recession is a 2/3 annual shrinking economy? Again, I'm by no means 100% on this!
    Why don't they do it then? And really, we all know money is imaginary anyway. There is no restriction here; we can do what the $#@! we want and so can Brown.

    Write it off. Help us out. Stick it up the banks and their well paid useless top-bafoonery/brass.

    Is a depression when everything is $#@!ed, naeb'dy's got a job or a hoose?
    Happythankyoumoreplease.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    to the above posts from colr and egb



    brilliantly put and true

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by snoots View Post
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    Makes too much sense, b.

    They'll never go for that - it would mean people with power losing out.

    If the IMF were too stupid not to see this coming how come we are supposed to trust them on how long it will last?

    Seems to me someone in charge in the UK has to gamble on a new manufacturing base. Thatchers gamble of the peasants serving coffee, cake, coke and coke to the non-productive paper pushers has fallen flat on it's erse, it never really took off anyway as it was all built on nothing and Nu-Lab are also to blame for sitting doing nothing for years as well.

    Someone on question time a few weeks ago saying the gamble should be taken on manufacturing plant for new renewable energy industries. That would take courage, energy and imagination. However those with the power to kick-start anything resembling this are too busy looking for bogus cash parliamentary backhanders and imagination in the manufacturing side of things doesn't get passed out-sourcing to other countries.

    What will happen more likely is that they will sit on their hands bemaoning the policies of other parties and pointing fingers until chaos hits.
    I think I/someone mentioned this before; a Bounce political party wouldnae go amiss.

    Sure, we've have problems with abortion legislation but there's a pretty decent mix on here.

    I reckon I could sort the economy and I cannae dae maths for $#@!.
    Happythankyoumoreplease.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Brainwrong View Post
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    I think I/someone mentioned this before; a Bounce political party wouldnae go amiss.

    Sure, we've have problems with abortion legislation but there's a pretty decent mix on here.

    I reckon I could sort the economy and I cannae dae maths for $#@!.


    Oh FFS 16 page thread ahead!

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

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    Oh FFS 16 page thread ahead!
    Are you saying as a white scottish male I shouldn't be allowed an abortion? You racist, homophobic, imperialist, capitalistic gunt!
    Happythankyoumoreplease.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Brainwrong View Post
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    Are you saying as a white scottish male I shouldn't be allowed an abortion? You racist, homophobic, imperialist, capitalistic gunt!
    you cant have babies, where is the fetus going to gestate?? are you going to keep it in a box?

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by alexi View Post
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    you cant have babies, where is the fetus going to gestate?? are you going to keep it in a box?
    You saying I can't have babies now?

    You complete Nazi!
    Happythankyoumoreplease.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Smurf View Post
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    Ok with hindsight Brown should have stopped the 125% mortgages and available personal credit etc etc.
    he should have included such controls in the remit of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee but he specifially and deliberately excluded it.

    The debt boom that resulted gave the illusion of a thriving economy when in reality we have had one which has been progressively eroded by global competition whilst Labour did little that was effective to reverse the trend.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Smurf View Post
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    Serious economics guy from world bank/IMF on Newsnight tonight praising Brown's handling of the economy...
    He must have had a fair bevvying session in the green room.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    The reason the debt cannot be written off is because it will be in the form of government bonds. Default on them and that's you absolutely $#@!ed for getting any access to borrowing at any point in the medium term. This is what happened with Arentina in the late 90s and they still have no access to borrowing.

    If the banks get nationalised their debt also gets taken over. Unfortunately the UK is in the position of having a relatively weak currency atm against the Euro in particular, and the dollar to an extent. And the banks borrowing will predominantly be in those currencies. So to nationalise the banks you would be taking on even more debt than they took on.

    To me, the solution rather than throwing money at banks (who deserve to fail imo) would have been to use that money create a new state bank run on fundamental banking principals. One thing is for absolutely sure and that is that every deposit in the UK banks would have been withdrawn and put into the new state bank. But that would have been seen to be interfering in the free market. Instead the free market idealogues allow the failed companies to be propped up.

    Another point I would make with particular reference to Scotland is that the weak pound will do virtually no favours to the economy other than perhaps attracting more tourists. And that's because we have no manufacturing industry left in this country which could have been expected to take advantage and possibly sow the seeds of economic recovery. The reason we have no manufacturing industry left is because successive governments have run economic policy to benefit a service industry which has now went tits up. The lack of diversification in the Scottish economy has led to social disintegration as manufacturing jobs have disappearred. It has led to the financial bubble collapse seeing Scotland pretty much losing it's two largest companies (RBS & HBOS).

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by wee 162 View Post
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    The reason the debt cannot be written off is because it will be in the form of government bonds. Default on them and that's you absolutely $#@!ed for getting any access to borrowing at any point in the medium term. This is what happened with Arentina in the late 90s and they still have no access to borrowing.

    If the banks get nationalised their debt also gets taken over. Unfortunately the UK is in the position of having a relatively weak currency atm against the Euro in particular, and the dollar to an extent. And the banks borrowing will predominantly be in those currencies. So to nationalise the banks you would be taking on even more debt than they took on.

    To me, the solution rather than throwing money at banks (who deserve to fail imo) would have been to use that money create a new state bank run on fundamental banking principals. One thing is for absolutely sure and that is that every deposit in the UK banks would have been withdrawn and put into the new state bank. But that would have been seen to be interfering in the free market. Instead the free market idealogues allow the failed companies to be propped up.

    Another point I would make with particular reference to Scotland is that the weak pound will do virtually no favours to the economy other than perhaps attracting more tourists. And that's because we have no manufacturing industry left in this country which could have been expected to take advantage and possibly sow the seeds of economic recovery. The reason we have no manufacturing industry left is because successive governments have run economic policy to benefit a service industry which has now went tits up. The lack of diversification in the Scottish economy has led to social disintegration as manufacturing jobs have disappearred. It has led to the financial bubble collapse seeing Scotland pretty much losing it's two largest companies (RBS & HBOS).
    I don't often agree with you on political issues but I do here. In a way the government already has a bank through NS&I - good rates too. But expanding this would alos mean the govt. would not be in the ridiculous situation of giving money to the banks to re-capitalise and the banks then refucing to leand the government's own money back to them for PFI hospitals and schools. Collect the money and use it themselves to get projects going again.

    I laso agre on indusrty.

    Something else they have got wrong is in trying to create a knowldge economy they are using the wrong market mechanisms. Prospective students do not have good information in their choices, especially if like me they were the first in their family to attend university, schools do not advise well and state schools in England have been pushing students to do weak subjects to boost their rankings which further limits choice. Meanwhile, the universityies control the market receiveing state subsidies which they sue to run the most profitable courses - easy and cheap to run social science, etc.. At the same time industry is starved of graduates in engineering and others.

    Therefore students are starting life with debt at the start of their lives (yes, MORE debt Gordon - thanks for that) but we are not creating anything like the type pof knowledge economy which could compete with emerging hi-tech countries.

    I would like to see the funding diverted from Universities who have no motivation to supply the skills employers need and divert it into employers who could, in return for match funding and gauranteed internships for their sponsored students.

    This way the courses required by emplyers and therefore the economy would receive support and the private sector would invest in education.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Smurf View Post
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    Dude he was praising Brown's handling of the economy compared to the USA in the past 8 years....
    surprised at that given britain's external debt is around 3 to 4 times the size of USAs and our housing bubble 2.5 times the size of there's, and that they're expected to take less a hit than everyone else, while we take the worst.

    bush's govt meanwhile, while they did indeed make an arse of the US economy, tried to reform the mortgage market back in 2003 (i think), and were blocked by the democrats , john mccain tried also a few years later
    I do think there's sound reason to knock Brown over this.

    However, i can't really recall anyone saying "Why are we increasing health/education/oversaeas development/transport/ etc etc spending by such an extent over and above inflation - we should be saving it for a rainy day".
    Apart from like, the IMF?

    the torygraph and the economist have been warning for a long time, but the IMF has been warning of it almost since the day he turned on the taps.

    and don't forget noone outside the govt even knew or knows the real picture as nulab took so much off the books

    The left (including Lib Dems & SNP etc) were calling for more spending and the Tories were promising to match it.

    Ok with hindsight Brown should have stopped the 125% mortgages and available personal credit etc etc. However, can you imagine the outcry from the Tories, Lib Dems & media at the control freakery of New Labour telling us how much we can borrow and spend?
    ifs and buts are fine. but brown was running it.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by snoots View Post
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    Makes too much sense, b.

    They'll never go for that - it would mean people with power losing out.

    If the IMF were too stupid not to see this coming how come we are supposed to trust them on how long it will last?
    they weren't. brown was too stupid to listen to them.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Manufacturing in the UK went through a hidden recession during the "boom times" of the late 90's.

    That was the time when the bulk of UK based industry went to the far East or Eastern Europe. For Scotland especially, this was disasterous.

    Between ~late 70's and mid 90's we were seen as a very safe location for foreign companies to build large manufacturing sites (Think of IBM at Greenock, Hoover at Cambuslang, Compaq at Bishopbriggs, HP and Motorola in the Lothians, Polaroid at Dumbarton etc etc). This was due to our highly skilled flexible labour, English language (most of the iparent companies were Yanks), and most importantly, being a member of the smaller "NATO" EU with the lowest wages.

    In 2009, none of these guys either exist any more, or are near empty shells. The companies have either moved to China or have been killed off by cheaper alternatives. "Silicon Glen, no more", to paraphrase the Hibby twins.

    These companies used to take 10's of thousands of tonnes of Engineering thermoplastics made in Grangemouth, a perfect hive of activity all through the central belt. When I visited all these places, they could not make there products quickly enough. All the workers were normal Scottish folk.

    All that is left of manufacturing now, is small scale, local firms who make parts in such low qauntities that it's not worth going to China to get them made. An example of this is the material in the cover of a well known mobile phone manufacturer that get's prototyped in East Kilbride ( a few hundred to a thousand), and if the product passes market testing, It gets massed produced in the far east. Hence, the material I invented get's mass produced in the far east as well.

    And to top off this tale of woe, we can only buy the raw materials in Euro's or Dollars (nobody deals in pounds anymore), so the cost of the thing that makes up to 80% of our sales price has risen 33% in the last six months....

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Inductrialised nations should never have signed up to free trade agreements with countries like China unless they introduced the same rights and conditions that workers here faced. That way we would have been competing like for like to an extend and Chinese workers wages (and industrial power) would have increased enormously creating more home demand for our exports as well (at present they import hee haw from the west).

    Its a bit difficult to put that genie back in the bottle with out getting itno negative and distructive protectionism but what western governments could do is to massively disincentivise outsourcing of manufacturing and servoces to countries which have not signed up to parrallel rights with the west. This is best done through the EU for us and by the US.

    Workers wages must be driven up n the medium to long term.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    The IMF, a bunch of ill advised jokers if there was one!

    Theyve been slagging our successive governments for years saying the UK will go bust next year (well almost) and that we, the UK, will be bankrupt and our monitory policies are all wrong. And thats when we were outperforming many other close countries.

    The IMF failed to notice Iceland going tits up or in fact any other countries were close to the brink; it failed to recognise the world recession and it wasnt just the UK that was in trouble but every country on the planet.

    Their fixation with us and now saying we are the worst just carries on the $#@!e theyve been spouting for years. If any of them knew what they were supposed to be doing they'd be doing it in a proper bank getting paid a damn sight more but then they would probably not have the qualifications to work in a proper bank!

    I hate all banks.
    Space to let

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Colr View Post
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    Workers wages must be driven up n the medium to long term.
    Is that not also part of the problem, in that the way inflation figures were manipulated, worker's incomes were not keeping pace with real increases in cost of living, leading to more reliance on personal borrowing.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by egb_hibs View Post
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    ifs and buts are fine. but brown was running it.
    Indeed. During a period when most of the developing world was prospering, he was quick enough to take the plaudits without doing very much. Bit much to say 'It wisnae me!!' when it goes wrong.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by alnewhaven View Post
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    Is that not also part of the problem, in that the way inflation figures were manipulated, worker's incomes were not keeping pace with real increases in cost of living, leading to more reliance on personal borrowing.
    Workers wages have been falling in real terms and this has been masked (deliberately?) by the debt boom.

    The roots go right back to the late 60s and the persisitent pressure to curb wages to increase company profits which has see the emergence of the kind of gaps between rich and poor which existing at the turn of the 19th/20th century.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by wee 162 View Post
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    The reason the debt cannot be written off is because it will be in the form of government bonds. Default on them and that's you absolutely $#@!ed for getting any access to borrowing at any point in the medium term. This is what happened with Arentina in the late 90s and they still have no access to borrowing.

    If the banks get nationalised their debt also gets taken over. Unfortunately the UK is in the position of having a relatively weak currency atm against the Euro in particular, and the dollar to an extent. And the banks borrowing will predominantly be in those currencies. So to nationalise the banks you would be taking on even more debt than they took on.

    To me, the solution rather than throwing money at banks (who deserve to fail imo) would have been to use that money create a new state bank run on fundamental banking principals. One thing is for absolutely sure and that is that every deposit in the UK banks would have been withdrawn and put into the new state bank. But that would have been seen to be interfering in the free market. Instead the free market idealogues allow the failed companies to be propped up.

    Another point I would make with particular reference to Scotland is that the weak pound will do virtually no favours to the economy other than perhaps attracting more tourists. And that's because we have no manufacturing industry left in this country which could have been expected to take advantage and possibly sow the seeds of economic recovery. The reason we have no manufacturing industry left is because successive governments have run economic policy to benefit a service industry which has now went tits up. The lack of diversification in the Scottish economy has led to social disintegration as manufacturing jobs have disappearred. It has led to the financial bubble collapse seeing Scotland pretty much losing it's two largest companies (RBS & HBOS).
    Thanks for that info.
    Happythankyoumoreplease.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by wee 162 View Post
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    Another point I would make with particular reference to Scotland is that the weak pound will do virtually no favours to the economy other than perhaps attracting more tourists. And that's because we have no manufacturing industry left in this country which could have been expected to take advantage and possibly sow the seeds of economic recovery. The reason we have no manufacturing industry left is because successive governments have run economic policy to benefit a service industry which has now went tits up. The lack of diversification in the Scottish economy has led to social disintegration as manufacturing jobs have disappearred. It has led to the financial bubble collapse seeing Scotland pretty much losing it's two largest companies (RBS & HBOS).
    Unfortunately tourism seems to be the only major industry we have left. What manufacturing we did have has suffered over the last decade due to the high value of sterling affecting exports.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by alnewhaven View Post
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    Unfortunately tourism seems to be the only major industry we have left. What manufacturing we did have has suffered over the last decade due to the high value of sterling affecting exports.
    We could manufacture tartan gonks for the tourists.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by alnewhaven View Post
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    Unfortunately tourism seems to be the only major industry we have left. What manufacturing we did have has suffered over the last decade due to the high value of sterling affecting exports.
    Not as much the high value of sterling, but the globalisation of labour. I was once at a seminar by OneNorthEast in Sunderland, England (the local business body) which shows the unit labour costs inside and outside the EU.

    My answer would be for the EU to put up massive import tariffs, so the non-Europeans cant sell their goods in the EU. Get them to feck...

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Japan entered a liquidity trap in 1990. nearly 20 years later no recovery - in fact its getting worse.

    Japanese economy hit by "perfect storm" - Telegraph

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Lets also not forget that this time last year this oh so very clever institution the IMF were saying that the UK would have "Strong Growth" in 2008.

    That prediction turned out to be pish....

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by Stirlinghibee View Post
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    Not as much the high value of sterling, but the globalisation of labour. I was once at a seminar by OneNorthEast in Sunderland, England (the local business body) which shows the unit labour costs inside and outside the EU.

    My answer would be for the EU to put up massive import tariffs, so the non-Europeans cant sell their goods in the EU. Get them to feck...
    I wouldn't. All you are doing in that situation is making those in the poorest countries in the world poorer.

    What I would do is demand that goods produced for import into the EU were certified as being manufactured under conditions which were acceptable. So the right to unionisation for workforces making them should be enshrined (bye bye Columbian imports) no child labour being used (bye bye footballs made in Pakistan and Indonesia) at least a minimal environment of health and safety for workers (bye bye Chinese coal) and workers producing goods for the EU to be given a decent living wage by the places they work.

    That would make goods more expensive, and therefore it would give some breathing room to manufacturers in the EU, but the benefits would at least be going to the workers abroad rather than to governments here to piss up the crumbling wall of reckless and irresponsible banks.

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    Re: IMF says UK to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation

    Quote Originally Posted by wee 162 View Post
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    I wouldn't. All you are doing in that situation is making those in the poorest countries in the world poorer.

    What I would do is demand that goods produced for import into the EU were certified as being manufactured under conditions which were acceptable. So the right to unionisation for workforces making them should be enshrined (bye bye Columbian imports) no child labour being used (bye bye footballs made in Pakistan and Indonesia) at least a minimal environment of health and safety for workers (bye bye Chinese coal) and workers producing goods for the EU to be given a decent living wage by the places they work.

    That would make goods more expensive, and therefore it would give some breathing room to manufacturers in the EU, but the benefits would at least be going to the workers abroad rather than to governments here to piss up the crumbling wall of reckless and irresponsible banks.
    Second post in this thread that I'm agreeing with you!!

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