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Thread: Poor English Council Results For Labour

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    Poor English Council Results For Labour

    Corbyn isn't going to win that's for sure. Traditional Labour voters in Scotland need to wake up and accept this. England is heading on a pro US full market economy path.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Smurf View Post
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    Corbyn isn't going to win that's for sure. Traditional Labour voters in Scotland need to wake up and accept this. England is heading on a pro US full market economy path.
    As a non labour voter I would suggest that these results suggest very little.
    First, I think i remember correctly that the 2014 council results were among the best in their history, so to imagine that they would make huge gains from then was naive.
    There is a very mixed history of Council elections pointing towards anything in General elections. Some localities vote on local issues, some on national and some idiosyncratically. The link between local and national is far from clear.
    I've not seen any turnout figures but I'd guess not high and its clear that high turnouts benefit Labour.
    The Brexit fallout remains a major muddying issue.
    The Tories are now in a very difficult position as Remain voters appear to be steering well clear. This potentially means that they are in hoc to a hard brexit that their own MPs are split on. For national election victory it also requires almost all Brexit voters will vote Tory, which they won't.
    Just my immediate thoughts having not looked in any detail into the breakdowns

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gareth View Post
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    As a non labour voter I would suggest that these results suggest very little.
    First, I think i remember correctly that the 2014 council results were among the best in their history, so to imagine that they would make huge gains from then was naive.
    There is a very mixed history of Council elections pointing towards anything in General elections. Some localities vote on local issues, some on national and some idiosyncratically. The link between local and national is far from clear.
    I've not seen any turnout figures but I'd guess not high and its clear that high turnouts benefit Labour.
    The Brexit fallout remains a major muddying issue.
    The Tories are now in a very difficult position as Remain voters appear to be steering well clear. This potentially means that they are in hoc to a hard brexit that their own MPs are split on. For national election victory it also requires almost all Brexit voters will vote Tory, which they won't.
    Just my immediate thoughts having not looked in any detail into the breakdowns
    good post imo, I think there have been significant boundary changes made which further complicate interpretation....
    "The old is dying and the new cannot be born. In this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms can appear"

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    West Midlands a good barometer of English elections.

    Labour 112 down 9.
    Tories 101 up 28.

    Aside from London that all the left pundits like Owen Jones is getting excited about Labour is losing ground.

    Look at the mess the Tories are in and yet Labour can only match the 35% projected share of the vote.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Smurf View Post
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    West Midlands a good barometer of English elections.

    Labour 112 down 9.
    Tories 101 up 28.

    Aside from London that all the left pundits like Owen Jones is getting excited about Labour is losing ground.

    Look at the mess the Tories are in and yet Labour can only match the 35% projected share of the vote.
    On low Local Government turnouts 35% is fine, its not fantastic but its fine. Even ignoring what I said earlier about low turnouts and who they benefit (36% turnout I just saw) I don't see this evidence of Labour losing ground. Yes in some places like the West Midlands the Tories have sucked in much of the UKIP vote, but do you honestly think any of your favoured Blairite Labour politicians would have succeeded in attracting those votes. They surely would have pushed them further away?

    There is no doubt the Tories are a shambles but so long as Brexit overshadows all else there is a significant population that will vote for them regardless. I don't think that population is big enough to win a GE but we'll see.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gareth View Post
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    On low Local Government turnouts 35% is fine, its not fantastic but its fine. Even ignoring what I said earlier about low turnouts and who they benefit (36% turnout I just saw) I don't see this evidence of Labour losing ground. Yes in some places like the West Midlands the Tories have sucked in much of the UKIP vote, but do you honestly think any of your favoured Blairite Labour politicians would have succeeded in attracting those votes. They surely would have pushed them further away?

    There is no doubt the Tories are a shambles but so long as Brexit overshadows all else there is a significant population that will vote for them regardless. I don't think that population is big enough to win a GE but we'll see.
    I don't have any favoured Blairite politician's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Smurf View Post
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    I don't have any favoured Blairite politician's.
    You could be a politician the way you avoided every single point @Gareth raised except that one
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    Labour killed themselves with their BLIARite middle of the road v Marxist-ish (£1000 a year season ticket at Arsenal) Jeremy London Borough right-onism.

    An independent Scotland will see the rise of a proper socialist, joined up progressive party. I cannot wait.

    How they got on down south, I could not give a fart anymore.
    nil satis nisi optimum

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dub View Post
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    You could be a politician the way you avoided every single point @Gareth raised except that one
    Not all got the time mate! We live in a 280 character world.... will reply later.

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    Labour won 1018 more seats than the tories,Labour gains 77,torie lost 33.In wandsworth where Thersesa May rushed to congratulate the splended effort
    Labour won 7 out of the 14 available seats.114 more votes in each Labour takes Wandsworth.And yet according tosome Labour have done badly?
    Considering the bile that has been poured on the head of Corbyn, Labour have done better than some of your right wing pundits would let you believe.
    Don't believe the hype!

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    while labour are pro brexit/multi-scandal id imagine that would be a turn off for many.

    if there were proven a centre left equivalent i'd imagine they would've done rather well....snp made huge gains after the 2007 expenses scandal

    if the blairites had split with an anti-brexit or softest of soft brexit message they may have been able to score a hit i reckon
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    Honestly, I always felt that the results were going to be interesting given that UKIP was due to implode entirely.

    That’s what happened, which was nice to see, but my major interest was in where those voters were going to go. UKIP were something of an anomaly, given that they were a right-wing party, but it was the traditional ‘working class’ vote that contributed to the Brexit result.

    Here’s, roughly, my executive summary – not a great deal changed within the political landscape, but it was a better night for Labour than it was for the Conservatives. As usual, a bigger and more forensic analysis of the results yields a little more understanding assuming you can ignore what you think voter motivation might be.

    The Labour party stayed in control of the same number of councils as they had last year, but it’s the changes that matter. They gained control of three councils (one from the Conservatives at Plymouth and took control of two), while they lost three (two went to no control, and one to the Conservatives at Redditch). They increased their number of councillors by 77, but that’s statistically insignificant and probably shouldn’t be looked at otherwise.

    The Conservatives, on the other hand, made a net loss of three councils and 33 councillors. They lost three to the Liberal Democrats (Kingston on Thames, Richmond and South Cambridgeshire) while dropping another three to no control; I’ve already mentioned the seventh loss at Plymouth. They took Redditch, as mentioned, but also picked up three from no overall control, so the only ‘swing’ was really to the Liberal Democrats who, if you’re interested, took those three councils from the Conservatives and retained everything else.

    Plymouth council is, like many, notoriously twitchy and could hardly be called a Labour stronghold over the last few elections. It changing hands is common, so little can be read into that. Redditch, however, doesn’t have any easy-to-find historical data. We can’t read much into it, but it’s worth noting that it has a Conservative MP (since 2010) so there are clearly some blue sympathies.

    Sadly, answering the UKIP question is hard. They lost 123 seats which were hoovered up by Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but I would find it astonishing if UKIP voters abandoned UKIP and then voted for the only party that overtly wants to re-run the EU referendum. I consider it more likely that three things happened:

    - A percentage of these voters didn’t return to the polls at all.
    - A percentage of them returned to their previous Labour votes.
    - A percentage of them shored up a Conservative vote that switched to the pro-EU Liberal Democrats.

    Your mileage may vary, but that’s how it looks to me.

    Vote share, however, is pretty interesting and that’s where Corbyn’s power arguably lies. There can be no hiding the fact that an 8% upwards swing in people voting for you is significant, despite that not delivering anywhere near that percentage of seats/councils. What’s amusing is that despite the Liberal Democrats increasing their councillor and council numbers, their vote share actually dropped by 2% (which is technically within the margin of error, so it’d be accurate to say their vote roughly stabilised). The Conservative vote share dropped, again by merely 3%, which means the ‘big’ English parties only saw Labour making any gains.

    What strikes me as bizarre, however, is that the vote share is 35% to 35%, Conservative to Labour; yet Labour has a full 1,018 seats and 28 councils more than the Conservatives. This suggests that the Labour vote is extremely efficient at council level, and why we’re unlikely to ever seen them campaign for electoral reform. What’s perhaps more sobering is that despite this being absolutely the worst Conservative government I’ve ever witnessed, Labour still cannot get ahead in either General Election polling or in council vote share.

    HOWEVER:

    While a lot of people think Corbyn isn’t the answer, it’s not at all clear who would replace him and do any better. The issue is that the parliamentary party won’t support a leader that they can’t oust, and splitting the Labour party into left and right simply splits constituency votes that would then see the Conservatives win seats where people want rid of them.

    We already have a government that the majority of British people didn’t vote for. It’s a travesty for democracy that we’re governed by a party the nation rejected.

    But…

    I think what we’re seeing is the effect of a political system that is utterly bedevilled by Brexit. It’s my suspicion, based on nothing better than circumstantial evidence, that voters do not want a change of government until the Brexit process has been completed. They appear to think that even this shambolic government, that has Boris Johnson as foreign secretary, is marginally preferable to the potential chaos that a change might herald at this late stage. As such, they’re bedding down and voting for the status quo.

    It’s obviously always worth bearing in mind that our major print and broadcast media never give Labour a fair shake under Corbyn, particularly the BBC, and that pensioners will almost always vote for the status quo (no matter how bad that might be). These things matter, particularly at low-interest council elections. But I do tend to think that Britain wants to weather the Brexit storm, before making a decision on where to go next. As despicable as the Conservative party is, it’s probably a pretty sensible approach.

    But that’s my quick take on what happened, and what it means for Labour.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moathibby View Post
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    Labour won 1018 more seats than the tories,Labour gains 77,torie lost 33.In wandsworth where Thersesa May rushed to congratulate the splended effort
    Labour won 7 out of the 14 available seats.114 more votes in each Labour takes Wandsworth.And yet according tosome Labour have done badly?
    Considering the bile that has been poured on the head of Corbyn, Labour have done better than some of your right wing pundits would let you believe.
    Don't believe the hype!
    It was mediocre at best. If it's such a magnificent effort not to win places like Wandsworth why was so much campaigning focused there? Yes, they were big targets but surely they must have been attainable? Because if they weren't we've just seen some mightily poor tactics.

    And not taking Barnet? Oof.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny View Post
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    while labour are pro brexit/multi-scandal id imagine that would be a turn off for many.

    if there were proven a centre left equivalent i'd imagine they would've done rather well....snp made huge gains after the 2007 expenses scandal

    if the blairites had split with an anti-brexit or softest of soft brexit message they may have been able to score a hit i reckon
    A lot of Remainers lent their vote to Labour last time because the party's policy on Brexit wasn't developed which meant you could see what you wanted to see in it, a bit. They aren't doing that any more.
    so what do I know

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    The first year Of Blair's office,he took 46% of the vote in council elections,it was called marvelous,Cameron's first year in office he took 40% of council votes it was called @a real breakthrough for the Tories,Mandelson in office i think it was 45% again'phenominal result for Mandy'Corbyn takes 47% of council votes'this is a disaster for Labour'.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moathibby View Post
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    The first year Of Blair's office,he took 46% of the vote in council elections,it was called marvelous,Cameron's first year in office he took 40% of council votes it was called @a real breakthrough for the Tories,Mandelson in office i think it was 45% again'phenominal result for Mandy'Corbyn takes 47% of council votes'this is a disaster for Labour'.
    Didn't say it was a disaster - said it was mediocre. Don't know where you get the 47% from but the projected vote share nationally from these elections was 35%.

    Not getting a good swing in your direction in numbers of councils and councillors in the middle of an election cycle with a terrible government making an obvious mess of things in power. I'd say that was mediocre.

    Edit - sorry, I get what you mean by 47%. But it's a meaningless figure both for predicting national vote and in comparison to other percentages gained in the past because local elections are contested only by certain parts of the country. Eg if mainly rural wards held elections it would be a triumph for Labour to get 30%.
    Last edited by HenryLB; 10-05-18 at 17:01.
    so what do I know

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