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Thread: Match preview...can we get to another cup final? The third in 18 months?

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    Match preview...can we get to another cup final? The third in 18 months?

    With the early KO on Saturday and early departure times for most travelling to Hampdump, it's an early start for the match preview as well...

    Those of us who were at Dodge City a few weeks back witnessed a fine all round performance by our team and the hope that a shock could be on the cards on Saturday.

    Efe was imperious in a football sense, SJM was freakin awesome JM and not one player had a dodgy game. And we will need more of the same this weekend.

    Dylan was influential in linking the midfield to the forwards and Slivka was top drawer.

    There's no need to dwell on the opposition ranks or line up. They have more resources than all of the rest of Scottish football put together. Bleating about schedules holds no water...so Brendan hud yer wheesht. Nobody is listening. Well except you lot and the odd Gunt should we dare win.

    If we are still competing going into the final 20 mins then the weight of the unbeaten record and treble repeat might weigh heavily. Legs might be heavy.

    Somoeone is going to beat them at some point...it might as well be us.
    Hibs are standing on the brink of history...

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    Love it. GGTTH. Gutted to be missing it.

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    Beating Celtic at Hampden whether it's a semi-final and especially a final is incredibly difficult. However I always think you have more chance of beating them in a semi, so based on that and our performance at Celtic Park a few weeks ago, plus the Bayern Munich game is bound to have taken a toll on them...gives Hibs a chance.

    I do think this game will be very different to the aforementioned 2-2 game...Celtic will be much more up for it with a cup final at stake. As per usual against Celtic, the avoidance of conceding an early goal is essential. The longer the game stays at 0-0 the better chance we have of winning. Hard work, good organisation, total concentration for the entirety of the game and no daft defensive errors are vital components if we are to have any chance. Have to say our lack of cutting edge in the last third is a major concern for me. We don't have a reliable goalscorer anymore since Cummings left. Really hope Stokes steps up to the plate...I think he relishes the big games. It seems to bring the best out of him.

    I'll be pleasantly surprised if we win, but going to let my heart rule my head and go for a 2-1 Hibs victory.
    "I can't stress enough how important it is to be in possession of the football - it is better to be the matador rather than the bull"

    John Hughes

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    Was going to say we need 5 in defence but do we have enough fit players? I don't think this is the right game to play Porteous. Surely then we need 4 in defence and at least 4 in midfield, to stem the Celtic attack? McGinn, McGeouch, Barts holding Slivka and Boyler, Murray up front with Stokesy playing off. Keep Swanson as impact sub.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jock3 View Post
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    Was going to say we need 5 in defence but do we have enough fit players? I don't think this is the right game to play Porteous. Surely then we need 4 in defence and at least 4 in midfield, to stem the Celtic attack? McGinn, McGeouch, Barts holding Slivka and Boyler, Murray up front with Stokesy playing off. Keep Swanson as impact sub.
    We'd be kicked out the competition fielding that side...
    Hibs are standing on the brink of history...

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    Quote Originally Posted by SKII View Post
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    With the early KO on Saturday and early departure times for most travelling to Hampdump, it's an early start for the match preview as well...Those of us who were at Dodge City a few weeks back witnessed a fine all round performance by our team and the hope that a shock could be on the cards on Saturday. Efe was imperious in a football sense, SJM was freakin awesome JM and not one player had a dodgy game. And we will need more of the same this weekend.Dylan was influential in linking the midfield to the forwards and Slivka was top drawer. There's no need to dwell on the opposition ranks or line up. They have more resources than all of the rest of Scottish football put together. Bleating about schedules holds no water...so Brendan hud yer wheesht. Nobody is listening. Well except you lot and the odd Gunt should we dare win. If we are still competing going into the final 20 mins then the weight of the unbeaten record and treble repeat might weigh heavily. Legs might be heavy. Somoeone is going to beat them at some point...it might as well be us.
    Players and fans need to believe we can do it. Need stoksie to repeat his 2013 and 2016 cup final performances. And when it's on get men in the box. Thier defence is not great under pressure. Also, rattle broony early doors. He won't like that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jock3 View Post
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    Was going to say we need 5 in defence but do we have enough fit players? I don't think this is the right game to play Porteous. Surely then we need 4 in defence and at least 4 in midfield, to stem the Celtic attack? McGinn, McGeouch, Barts holding Slivka and Boyler, Murray up front with Stokesy playing off. Keep Swanson as impact sub.


    Looks like 4 5 2 - would we get away with that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Greenmachine View Post
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    However I always think you have more chance of beating them in a semi...
    You know, this always struck me as a bit of an urban legend. The Infirm are, obviously, more likely to lose in earlier rounds than a final because, statistically speaking, there are more early rounds in every competition than there are finals. My suspicion has always been that, other than beating each other, neither are any more likely to lose at Hampden in a semi or a final.

    Luckily, we can check the last twenty years (I’ll only check Celtic, because “Rangers” died):

    In the last twenty years, Celtic have been in ten League Cup finals and played someone other than Rangers in seven of them; all at Hampden. They’ve lost once, to Kilmarnock in 2012, which gives them an 86% win rate. In the Scottish Cup, they’ve also done it seven times at Hampden – but they’ve not lost in the showpiece, winning seven from seven.

    All told in Hampden finals, they’ve got a 93% win rate when not playing Rangers. Ultimately, they don’t lose against teams much smaller than them and nor should they given their resources.

    For semis, here are the numbers at Hampden and including two matches at Ibrox (again, not including Rangers):

    In the League Cup, they’ve played nine times and lost twice (Ross County and St Mirren), while the Scottish Cup has seen them play eleven times with three defeats (Ross County, Hearts and Inverness). That’s four defeats out of twenty matches, with Ross County bizarrely responsible for half of them. Their overall win rate at big stadia for semi-finals is, therefore, 80% - 13% more than they lose in finals.

    The conclusion is that my hunch was wrong (WHO’D HAVE THOUGHT?!), and Celtic are slightly more vulnerable in the semi-final than they are the final; thought not by terribly much. The bottom line is that Celtic dwarf every other club in Scotland at the moment, including “Rangers” at this point, and their overall Hampden appearances net them an 82% chance of success over the last two decades. In other words, they’ll win four out of five matches at the national stadium… Unless you’re Ross County. $#@! knows. /shrug

    We’re up against it, bouncers. Their means are much higher than ours, their players are better, and they’ll have more supporters cheering them on from the stand. To win the match, we need to defend resolutely, keep a hold of the ball for decent periods of time, and take our chances when they come up. We did this at their shagpile a few weeks ago, and easily could have won, because we have the players to do all three of those things.

    But the problem is that Celtic almost always turn up for the showpieces and, if that happens on Saturday, it’s going to be tough. Keep it tight until half-time, frustrate them and the mutants that follow them, and steal a goal.

    If it happens, it’s a huge shock irrespective of what Rogers says.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jock3 View Post
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    Was going to say we need 5 in defence but do we have enough fit players? I don't think this is the right game to play Porteous. Surely then we need 4 in defence and at least 4 in midfield, to stem the Celtic attack? McGinn, McGeouch, Barts holding Slivka and Boyler, Murray up front with Stokesy playing off. Keep Swanson as impact sub.
    Id say boyle, with his pace is more an impact player. Swanson needs some time to bed into a game, Id build my team around Swanson, but im an idiot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tayside hibee View Post
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    Id say boyle, with his pace is more an impact player. Swanson needs some time to bed into a game, Id build my team around Swanson, but im an idiot.
    But would you play 11 or 12 men?
    Hibs are standing on the brink of history...

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    Obvious as it sounds it's really important that we don't loose an early goal the longer we are in the game the better. I've lost count already the amount of games this season we have conceded the first goal. I would love for that to change tomorrow and see us get in front for a change

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    Quote Originally Posted by SKII View Post
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    But would you play 11 or 12 men?
    Gotta be 12. Mair guys, mair chances, eh? Unless the 12th man was Brian Hamilton. Then you'd be looking at The Brian Effect giving you a net headcount of 10.
    Happythankyoumoreplease.

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    When did we last beat celtic at hampden? 72?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DarrenSQH View Post
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    When did we last beat celtic at hampden? 72?
    I think so, yes. Unless there was a Dryburgh Cup win after that.

    They’ve played us there in 1974, 1980, 1989, 1994, 1995, 2001 and 2013 (I think) and the best we’ve had was a 2-2 draw in the league.

    We have beaten them in the league cup on two occasions in my time supporting Hibs- 1985 and 2003. Both of these were quarter finals at ER though.

    P

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    Quote Originally Posted by PaddyBarry View Post
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    I think so, yes. Unless there was a Dryburgh Cup win after that.

    They’ve played us there in 1974, 1980, 1989, 1994, 1995, 2001 and 2013 (I think) and the best we’ve had was a 2-2 draw in the league.

    We have beaten them in the league cup on two occasions in my time supporting Hibs- 1985 and 2003. Both of these were quarter finals at ER though.

    P
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    3-0 to the Hibs. My bet is on@150/1.......loaded.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stanton Spence View Post
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    Obvious as it sounds it's really important that we don't loose an early goal the longer we are in the game the better. I've lost count already the amount of games this season we have conceded the first goal. I would love for that to change tomorrow and see us get in front for a change
    This is absolutely our biggest problem at the moment. We seem utterly incapable of not giving ourselves a mountain to climb, more often than not.

    Against Celtc at Hampden, going one behind makes things extremely difficult. Two I'd say is virtually insurmountable. The back four must try and focus and concentrate from whistle to whistle tomorrow. The margin for error is practically zero.

    That said, if there's a goal in it, either way, with 15 to go, I'll dare to dream.

    2-1 Hibs.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zellviren View Post
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    You know, this always struck me as a bit of an urban legend. The Infirm are, obviously, more likely to lose in earlier rounds than a final because, statistically speaking, there are more early rounds in every competition than there are finals. My suspicion has always been that, other than beating each other, neither are any more likely to lose at Hampden in a semi or a final.

    Luckily, we can check the last twenty years (I’ll only check Celtic, because “Rangers” died):

    In the last twenty years, Celtic have been in ten League Cup finals and played someone other than Rangers in seven of them; all at Hampden. They’ve lost once, to Kilmarnock in 2012, which gives them an 86% win rate. In the Scottish Cup, they’ve also done it seven times at Hampden – but they’ve not lost in the showpiece, winning seven from seven.

    All told in Hampden finals, they’ve got a 93% win rate when not playing Rangers. Ultimately, they don’t lose against teams much smaller than them and nor should they given their resources.

    For semis, here are the numbers at Hampden and including two matches at Ibrox (again, not including Rangers):

    In the League Cup, they’ve played nine times and lost twice (Ross County and St Mirren), while the Scottish Cup has seen them play eleven times with three defeats (Ross County, Hearts and Inverness). That’s four defeats out of twenty matches, with Ross County bizarrely responsible for half of them. Their overall win rate at big stadia for semi-finals is, therefore, 80% - 13% more than they lose in finals.

    The conclusion is that my hunch was wrong (WHO’D HAVE THOUGHT?!), and Celtic are slightly more vulnerable in the semi-final than they are the final; thought not by terribly much. The bottom line is that Celtic dwarf every other club in Scotland at the moment, including “Rangers” at this point, and their overall Hampden appearances net them an 82% chance of success over the last two decades. In other words, they’ll win four out of five matches at the national stadium… Unless you’re Ross County. $#@! knows. /shrug

    We’re up against it, bouncers. Their means are much higher than ours, their players are better, and they’ll have more supporters cheering them on from the stand. To win the match, we need to defend resolutely, keep a hold of the ball for decent periods of time, and take our chances when they come up. We did this at their shagpile a few weeks ago, and easily could have won, because we have the players to do all three of those things.

    But the problem is that Celtic almost always turn up for the showpieces and, if that happens on Saturday, it’s going to be tough. Keep it tight until half-time, frustrate them and the mutants that follow them, and steal a goal.

    If it happens, it’s a huge shock irrespective of what Rogers says.
    i've got a query with your figures Zell. How can Celtc have played in 10 LC finals but only 9 Semi Finals [2 of which they lost].
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    Quote Originally Posted by GORDONSMITH7 View Post
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    3-0 to the Hibs. My bet is on@150/1.......loaded.BIG G
    I've got that bet on as well. Plus: 3-2 Hibs; Both teams to score, Hibs to win; Hibs to win to nil; Stokes to score anytime. Covers a few bases.

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    I'm not necessarily expecting a Hibs victory but what heartens me is that this vintage of Hibernian appear to very much more often turn up for the big games. It's often the 'lesser' teams we seem to struggle with if anyone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DarrenSQH View Post
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    When did we last beat celtic at hampden? 72?
    The last time Hibs beat Celtic at Hampden was the Dryborough Cup Final in 1973.
    Hibs won 1-0 thanks to an Alan Gordon goal in the last minute of extra-time.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dub View Post
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    i've got a query with your figures Zell. How can Celtc have played in 10 LC finals but only 9 Semi Finals [2 of which they lost].
    I took out the matches where they played Rangers, bud.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tricky View Post
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    95 was Ibrox? Went to a replay
    Correct mate- I was at both of those ties BUT we played them at Ibrox because they were using Hampden for league games. Two fixtures between the teams took place there as a result (zips up anorak)...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Greenmachine View Post
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    Hibs win 1-0 thanks to an Anthony Stokes goal in the last minute of extra-time.
    That would do me nicely!
    nil satis nisi optimum

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    Quote Originally Posted by PaddyBarry View Post
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    Correct mate- I was at both of those ties BUT we played them at Ibrox because they were using Hampden for league games. Two fixtures between the teams took place there as a result (zips up anorak)...
    Good facts Paddy
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