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  1. #1
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    Odds

    Pass mark for the League Cup group, eminently satisfactory close season transfer business, Stokesy back... allegedly.
    Surely worth a punt or two on the boys.
    It's hard to work out some modern "bookies." BetFred went a standout 25/1 Hibs for "their" League Cup before a ball was kicked (Cheers, Baldy!) and Bet365 were shortest of all at 16/1. Now, with Hibs through and hosting the weakest remaining team, Bet365 have strangely lengthened them to 25/1, while BetFred have understandably shortened the mighty Hibees to 16/1. It's 11/8 Celtic for the wee cup, 6/1 The Rangers, 8/1 Sheep, 20/1 Sainties, 25/1 Well, Ross & Hibs.
    For the big cup, it's 5/4 Celtic, 6/1 The Rangers, 8/1 Sheep, 16 Gunts, 20 Hibs (but 22/1 online with 10Bet).

    The Racing Post preview was out today and its tipsters have an impressive record down the years. Ian Wilkerson, long-term replacement for the much lamented Stuart Carruthers, has been replaced as Scotland specialist by Mark Walker.
    His summary for Hibs? “Neil Lennon’s side made hard work of securing the Championship, but they easily beat Hearts and ran Aberdeen close in the cups. A squad laced with experience should see Hibs do well.” He recommends Hibs to finish above the Gunts at 10/11 with Bet365.

    Celtic are a best-priced 1/9 for the flag with Betfair and as short as 1/20 with Bet365. It’s a “Win Only” market with all the bookies, but the optimistic can back The Rangers at 12/1 with Bet365, the Sheep at 20/1 in a few places, the Gunts at 250/1 with Fred and Hibs at 500/1 with SkyBet. Paddy Power has Hibs at a stingy 100/1.

    Mr.Walker headlines the Sheep at 6/4 with Billy Hill’s and Uncle Rupert in the “Without Celtic” market. He must lose points for the “damp Dingwall on a Tuesday night in February” cliché used to question the new Hispanic recruits at The Rangers, but his preview looks sound. The Rangers are odds-on all round in that market, with 10/11 the best available. The Gunts are 14/1 and Hibs are a best price of 22/1 with Paddy Power... who, as pointed out above, are the worst price in the normal “outright” market. Go figure.

    The secondary headline highlights Motherwell as value for the wooden spoon at 12/1. Mr.Walker expects Louis Moult to depart. There are typo problems with the piece. The bet is recommended as being with Uncle Rupert, but they go 7/1. It’s Hill’s who call the standout 12/1 about ’Well finishing bottom. The Hill’s prices are entirely absent from the table next to the article. Accies were a standout 10/3 for this with Bet365, but were swiftly slashed to 9/4, which is still the best price. Killie are 5/1. Partick are the same odds in the high street, but 13/2 with Black Type online. Ross 6/1, Dundee 7/1, that 12/1 ’Well still seemingly there, Sainties 33/1.

    Sparky is recommended in the Top Goalscorer market at 6/1 with Hill’s, given that Dembele will miss maybe the first half a dozen games with injury. A small each-way wager on Lafferty at 33/1 in that market is also recommended: the lanky icepole of petrified pish having been “shrewdly” backed at 80/1. Hard to argue against 80/1 being good value and the new price isn’t a dire each-way punt at a quarter the odds for three places. It’s 3/1 Dembele; 5/1 Sinclair; 6/1 Sparky; 16 Miller; 20 Morelos, Waghorn & Herrera; 25 Rooney, Armstrong & Moult.

    Mr.Walker’s other Premier suggestions: Partick to finish in the top six at a very fair 5/1 with Hill’s (They are 11/2 online with 10Bet); Sainties at 11/10 with SkyBet to finish in the bottom six (since chopped top even money by the shrewd Uncle Rupert oddsmaker); & Partick to finish above Killie, which really does look a money-buying exercise at 5/6 with Bet365.

    In the lower divisions, Mr.Walker tips Falkirk at 4/1 in what I still call Division Two. Arabs are 2/1 favourites, St.Mirren also 4/1, Caley 5/1, Pars 10/1. There were no relegation odds offered at the time he penned the piece, but he correctly states that any price approaching evens for Brechin to go down would be a knocking bet. BetVictor have since priced-up the wooden spoon. Brechin are twos-on and that’s probably value, unless Dumbarton relax their guard.

    Ayr are the tip at 5/2 in Division Three. Can’t argue with that. Gone fulltime and rampaged through the League Cup: beating Killie, winning 3-1 at Dumbarton and knocking a total of eleven past the two Division Four clubs. Raith are market leaders at Betfair’s 11/8, with Alloa 7/1 and it’s 16/1 bar three.

    Peterhead at SkyBet’s standout 2/1 are the call from Mr.Walker in the basement, with an each-way punt on Stirling at a general 12/1 also suggested. Stenny 11/2 and Clyde 6/1 the only other two shorter than the Binos.

    The Racing & Football Outlook preview was published in last week’s paper. Editor Dan Sait predicted a fifth place finish in the League for Hibs. He also reckoned the Sheep would finish ahead of The Rangers again & also recommended them at 6/4 in the “Without Celtic” market. Had Accies down for the wooden spoon and Dundee for the relegation play-off. Other tips from Mr.Sait were Falkirk each-way at 5/1 (since cut to 4/1) and Livi each-way at 25/1 for Division Two. He felt Raith were dodgy favourites in Division Three but felt unable to give a tip. His biggest suggested investment was for Peterhead at 9/4 in the basement. That was before they beat the Gunts. As above, 2/1 is the best you’ll get now.

  2. #2
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    You forgot to mention what odds hearts are for the league cup

  3. #3
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    Two weeks in...

    With a plum QF draw, Hibs are as short as 5/1 for the Wee Cup but you can get 13/2 with Betway. Celtic a best 11/10, The Rangers 5/1 and the Sheep 6/1 - all of which suggests the bookies think the QFs are a foregone conclusion. For anyone thinking otherwise, 'Well are 16/1, Partick 20/1, Dundee 25/1 and Meadowbank Thistle 100/1.
    No change at all in the betting for the Big Cup.

    Celtic are now a best price of 1/16 for the flag..."Illicit chanting/banners" being a less hazardous potential obstacle under SFA jurisdiction than under UEFA's A couple of firms go 1/33. Still, there could yet be hope on the fiscal shenanigans front. 20/1 for the Sheep and The Rangers. Hibs in to a best 150/1 with Billy's and Victor. Bet365 have been impressed enough to call 50/1.

    In the "Without Celtic" market, only bwin now have The Rangers shorter than the Sheep. Most firms have them jt-favs at 11/10 or 6/5. You can get 5/4 the Sheep with online outfit Black Type. Hibs are an absolute standout 12/1 with the aforementioned bwin, but are 7/1 with just about everyone on the high street (Lads, Billy's, Joe's, Fred, Boyle, Bet365, S.James). Gunts are still 12s and 14s in places and have only drifted to a best offer of 18/1.

    Hill's clearly got filled-in after the Racing Post's tip for 'Well to finish bottom at 12/1, as they now call a clear shortest price of 5/1. Not a lot of change in the wooden spoon market. Accies 5/2 favs, 4/1 Killie, 9/2 Partick, 5/1 Dundee, 7/1 'Well, 7/1 Ross. Sainties are 66/1 and SkyBet go 100/1 the Gunts.

    Sparky now 9/4 fav. in the top scorer market. 5/1 Sinclair, 6/1 Dembele. Betfair have Waghorn in the list at 20/1 - I hope they don't know something we're not privvy to . Morelos also 20/1. 25/1 Herrera, O'Halloran, Rooney & Stevie May. Stokesy a best of 40/1 with Hill's; Simon Murray a standout 50/1 with Bet365 but only 20/1 in places.

    Wide differences of opinion in Division Two. The Arabs have been slashed to 4/5 or 5/6 with Victor and Paddy, but 6/4 is still available with Bet365 and SkyBet. Bairns out to a standout 13/2 with Victor - the same standout price Black Type offer about St.Mirren, who are as short as 4/1 in several places. 10/1 the Pars and Caley.

    Raith still head the Div.3 market at 5/4 (13/10 with Black Type), while Ayr's avalanche of goals has seen them come in to a general 6/4 (13/8 online with Sports Winner) and Alloa are out to 10/1. It's 33/1 bar three.

    Only Bet365 and Stan James call evens Peterhead in Div.4, with every other firm having them odds-on. 6/1 Clyde, 8/1 Stenny, 8/1 Stirling, 16/1 bar four.

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    At 50/1 Simon Murray has got to be worth it.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bofahibee View Post
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    At 50/1 Simon Murray has got to be worth it.


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    If you're going to back SM for TGS do it now as the odds will change at 12.30 according to Bet365 website.
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  6. #6
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    Update...

    International break? Pah! When men were men, they played midweek, travelled by train & ferry, and turned out for the proper games on Saturday. That’s how it should be.
    Scotland are 33/1 with Hill’s to qualify for the World Cup Finals. That looks a good price at first glance. Maximum points from the Lithuania & Malta games is a realistic aim and Slovakia might well slip-up against Slovenia. It’s not impossible Scotland might be back on level terms for the runners-up spot by Monday night.
    However, once you look at the other groups, the price is unattractive. UEFA will presumably seed the play-off draw. Scotland, should they make it, will not be seeded. Either Spain or Italy will be in the seeded hat. Portugal currently trail Switzerland by three points and face a trip to Hungary on Sunday. France trail Sweden and are playing misfiring Holland tonight.
    So, the second-favs and fourth-favs for the whole shebang in some lists, plus the European Champeens, could all be laying in wait for Scotland. Strachan’s lads would not exactly be a worthwhile sporting bet at 7/4 over two legs against any of that trio. Let’s move on.

    Champions League. I can’t say I care a jot about the co-efficient. The one set of fans who should are the Huns. A couple of impressive European campaigns by Celtic might get Scotland’s second Champions League place restored. I doubt the average Sheep is either deluded or arrogant enough to think his side will make an impression. The average Hun probably is.
    Celtic are 1,000/1 to regain the trophy with Black Type and 500/1 with several more established bookies.
    For the group, it’s 10/11 Bayern, evens P.S.G.... & 100/1 is available for both Celtic and Anderlecht. The biggest price at which any bookie offered any team for any of the League Cup groups last month was 40/1, which shows you the level of inequality in European club football.
    Celtic are 14/1 with Hill’s to qualify for the last 16.
    The 12/1 about Celtic beating P.S.G. in the opening match looks reasonable value.

    Hibswise... I’m less perturbed than I was a fortnight ago that a lack of prices on their screens prevented me backing the Hibees at Hill’s 22/1 in the Premier Division’s “Without Celtic” book. Victor now goes a standout 14/1 Hibs in that market. The Sheep are a standout 11/10 with Bet365, The Rangers are 6/4 with a couple of the online boys and Sainties are 20/1 with Paddy. The Gunts are 28/1 with Fred.
    In the outright market, Celtic are a best 1/25 – and that’s with the two Irish firms: Paddy and Boyle’s. Aberdeen are 20/1 with SkyBet, The Rangers 33/1 with Hills. Hibs now 250/1 with SkyBet, Victor and our beloved shirt sponsors.
    The contest for the Wooden Spoon has seen Killie assume favouritism. 11/4 with Paddy, Stan & Victor is the best you’ll get. Accies are out to 9/2. Black Type seem to be out for headlines and are taking a position on Partick at 5/1, Dundee at 6/1 and Ross at 12/1. The Jags are no bigger than Bet365’s 10/3 elsewhere, while Dundee are no bigger than 4/1 with anyone else and 9/1 is the next best price about Ross. Black Type don’t think much of ’Well, though – having them at 6/1 when SkyBet offer 14/1.
    Top Goalscorer has seen Sparky drift slightly to 5/2 with Victor. It’s then 5/1 Sinclair, 7/1 Dembele and 12/1 Morelos. Herrera is 22/1, it’s 25/1 Rooney and May, O’Halloran is 28s and the transfer window is about to slam shut with Moult still offered at 33/1. Stokes is 40/1 with Hill’s; Simon Murray 50/1 with Bet365. I have to say Stokesy at that price is the one Hibs bet I’m thinking about right now. Each-way is available, though several tightwad bookies call one-fifth the odds for three places... outrageously including Britain’s Biggest Bookmaker, Billy Hill’s. (Someone have a word, for feck sake!) Most bookies go a quarter the odds for three places.

    In Division Two, the Arabs are a general 6/4. Black Type are acting the wag again here, though their compiler clearly fancies the Arabs and Caley. It’s 4/1 St.Mirren with Black Type, while of all the other bookies only Victor at 10/3 goes bigger than 3/1. The 7/1 about the Pars is also a Black Type standout. Inverness are 10s with Victor. QoS are 14/1 with Black Type and Falkirk are a general 16/1.
    Victor has a Wooden Spoon market: 1/5 Brechin, 7/2 Dumbarton, 20/1 bar! There’s a top scorer book as well, in which Keatings share favouritism with Nathan Austin at 8/1.

    Ayr’s surprise home loss to Arbroath has seen Raith go odds-on in Division Three, with 10/11 widely available. Ayr are out to a standout 2/1 with Bet365. Alloa are third-in at 14/1

    Peterhead’s home pumping by Stirling has seen the Blue Toon lengthened to 13/8 for the Division Three title by Bet365, though Victor still calls evens. 100% Stirling are now in to 7/2. Stenny are 6/1 and Montrose 10s.
    Victor has a Wooden Spoon market, in which Edinburgh City are 4/5 – a tad insulting after four games.

    Cups? No change for any of the quarter-finalists in the Wee Cup, for which Hibs remain priced between 5/1 and 13/2.
    For the Big Cup, all the 5/4 Celtic has been nibbled and 6/5 is the best you’ll get. No other changes at all, so 22/1 with 10Bet remains the Hibs standout price, with 20/1 available elsewhere.

    Betway and Victor have priced-up the Challenge Cup. I don’t recall seeing odds for that until much later last season. The Arabs are 4/1 favs. St.Mirren are 10/1, Caley and perennial Welsh champs TNS – who lost a game a couple of weeks back! – are 12/1. Bray Wanderers are 16/1, in spite of teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and being down to 500 or so fans. They have allegedly satisfied the F.A.I. that they will complete the current (summer) season. On 20/1 we have Huns U20s, Accies U20s and Sligo Rovers. I might be tempted by 20s Sligo – a proper club in a soccer town – but they’re only one point above the relegation trapdoor with six games to play. They host Falkirk this weekend.
    Anyone with nothing better to do could do worse than give Spartans a hearty cheer against Linfield... just so long as you watch for Buckie bottles and don’t attach anything to the goalposts.

  7. #7
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    World Cup & Challenge Cup observations.

    Starting with the World Cup. I still don’t think 33/1 about Scotland qualifying prior to the last two rounds of matches was value, but the 9/2 now offered by SkyBet, who are the only firm to price this up according to Oddschecker, is truly comical. You can get 7/2 Scotland in the “Top Two Group Finish” market with Hill’s! (Slovakia a best 8/11, Slovenia a best 10/3.) Anyone agreeing with the 7/2 “Top Two” odds would need to make Scotland a 2/9 shot to win their play-off tie in order to come up with a price of 9/2 to reach Russia. I don’t study “To Qualify” markets, but perhaps I should as it appears to be an area where bookies make errors - as evidenced by the reluctance of most of them to offer a “Not To Qualify” price. Italy will be in the play-off hat. I’d want 3/1 to consider a bet on Scotland beating Italy over two legs. Portugal are a shade of odds-on to be in the hat. France are still not certainties to avoid the play-offs. Scotland would need to be even bigger than 3/1 for me to consider an investment against either of those two. With potential play-off opponents unknown, I’d say 5/2 Scotland winning what’s currently a “blind” play-off would be fair. A win against Switzerland, Sweden or Wales, any of whom could end-up as the 3rd and/or 4th team in the seeded bag, would be tricky but achievable. So, if the 7/2 for a “Top Two” finish is about right – and I think it is – then around 15/1 is what Scotland should be to make it to Russia.
    Incidentally, though playing every qualifier in the final round of UEFA matches at the same time would presumably hammer TV revenues and maybe hit gate receipts a wee bit, UEFA are possibly letting themselves in for trouble by staging the final round over three days. One of the runners-up does not make the play-offs. Teams playing on the last day may know what they have to do in order to screw some poor sods who played on the first two days. The Switzerland/Portugal and France/Sweden groups playing on the last day should not cause a problem. The Bosnia/Greece group going last may well do. It looks as if Wales or Ireland are more likely than whoever is 2nd in Scotland's group to be the unfortunate team in the sights of the "convenient" last day result.

    A word about the Fizzy-Pop Cup. Making money from bookies on football is sometimes easier than you’d think. As they clashed with the international break, the Racing Post’s Mark Walker was given the same amount of column inches to preview the last batch of Irn Bru matches as he’d get for a full Scottish domestic fixture list on a normal Saturday. He didn’t need it. He simply opted for a “men against boys” line of reasoning. The gulf between semi-pro footballers from lower division clubs and the kids at the various U-20s teams surprised many in this competition last term. Walker was sure the gulf still exists. He simply blindly picked the four senior teams that were facing U-20 opposition and were reasonable prices. They all duly obliged, bagging 13 goals (three threes and a four) between them. Crusaders at 11/8 against ’Well, Cove at 13/8 away to Accies, Raith at evens against Ross, and St.Mirren at 8/11 against the Gunts. You wouldn’t have got all those odds with a single firm on the accumulator, but a return of £150 or so for a tenner is not to be sniffed at. Stranraer had been 29/20 at home to Partick U-20s on the Friday night and duly pumped them 2-0. That would’ve made it a five-timer. Put that in the notebook for next year. You can bet your balls most punters and bookies will have forgotten the lesson by then.

    Have to say I'm a little un-nerved by Hibs being favourites in Perth tomorrow. So far we've done exactly what a club heading for sixth place at the split, with a w12 d9 l12 record, would have done. Two home games v. the wooden spoon favs and a team rated bottom six material; two away games, v. the 2nd favs and another club seemingly destined for the lower half. Two wins, a draw and a loss is a bang level par score.
    I still think we're better than sixth, and it wouldn't be totally unreasonable to argue for form lines that might make Hibs a slightly better team than Sainties, but such an analysis of the formbook would be slightly generous. You have to allow for home advantage though, so I can't see any grounds at all for Hibs being favs at McDiarmid Park. I would be mildly surprised if Mr.Walker does not advise Sainties at 9/5 as being a value bet in tomorrow's Racing Post.

  8. #8
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    We're Back At Hampden!

    So. The Wee Mickey Mouse Cup. Simply a pre-season inconvenience, which apparently we shouldn’t even bother entering. If only that fat, four-eyed Sassenach bar steward would let us get away with not entering it. But whaddya know? We’re on our way down Cathcart Road again. The mighty Hibees were so impressive in dismantling Ferranti Thistle that the bookies cut the odds from 13/2 to 6/1 on Wednesday morning. The dire draw has seen Hibs pushed back out to 7/1 by Betway. I’d not be taking that. Celtic were an enticing 5/6 to lift the trophy pre-kickoff at Fir Park last night, where the Sheep were odds-on across the board for the win inside 90 minutes. I’m surprised Fred is still offering 8/11. Betway have the Celts at 4/7, which is about right in my view. They go a best 3/1 The Rangers and a whopping 16/1 Motherwell, who are only 8/1 with Fred. A lot of firms have yet to update after the Fir Park action, never mind the draw.

    It’s Spartans v. Vale of Leithen in the opening match of “The Big Cup” tonight. No movement at all in the outright betting. Still 6/5 Celtic, 6/1 The Rangers, 8/1 Sheep, 16/1 Gunts, 22/1 us (still only with 10Bet), 25/1 Sainties, 30/1 Well.

    The Challenge Cup is still the “Scottish” tournament punters should be looking most closely at, because bookies will make far more mistakes pricing-up a competition with clubs from five different leagues, with minimal inter-league fixture history, than they will in setting odds for domestic leagues and cups.
    Victor has shortened holders and favourites Dundee United to 7/2, but 6/1 is available with Betway and Bet365. The Arabs have been drawn at home to Linfield In the international break. Arab messageboards are convinced that many Weegie Orcs have misunderstood “Dundee” in its 1689 context and will descend in numbers on the city in support of their Belfast brethren, seeking vengeance and possibly diverting to lay waste Killiecrankie on the way. It’s also 6/1 St.Mirren, who host Raith in the last 16. The Pars are 8/1, which looks skinny with a trip to Falkirk next up. The Bairns, who somehow survived a battering to win 2-1 against an unexpectedly strong Sligo XI, are one of several 10/1 shots. Caley are 10/1 and host the might Peterhead. The two foreign raiders on 10/1 are Crusaders, who travel to Cove, and T.N.S. who host Elgin. The 10/1 about the Taffs is with 10Bet, though Victor quotes them at 6/1 jt-2nd-favs. Linfield are a standout 12/1 with Victor but only 9/1 elsewhere. At 14/1 with Victor, I’d say Q.o.S. might be the most tempting bet. They go to Montrose next up.

    The League. In which - just in case it’s escaped anyone’s attention - we’ve hoovered-up three points from four games v. Accies, Dundee, Sainties and Well. In many seasons over the past 25 to 30 years, the team that’s chased home the Auld Firm for the bronze (or chased home Celtic for the silver of late) might well have dropped a fistful of points against bottom-half shoo-ins and may even have lost at home to the wooden spoon favourites. It’s unlikely too many podium finishers have endured a four-game streak on a par with Hibs’ record since mid-August though.
    Sky go a generous 1/25 Celtic for the flag. There are probably financial markets where a 4% return on investment by the end of April looks more attractive. Only “probably” though. 25/1 the Sheep, 30/1 The Rangers. We’re back out to the pre-season 500/1 with Victor.
    In the “Without Celtic” market we are not yet back out to the pre-season 20/1. Give it another none days. Victor and Betway are best about Hibs at 14/1. The Sheep are now 6/5 with Bet365. The Huns are 6/4 with a couple of the online casino bunco booths that run an occasional book as a sideline.
    One loss all season or not, I reckon we need a win tomorrow. If we don’t get three points up there - and I think 10/11 is the worst value price I’ve seen for a Hibs game this term - then I’d say we are under a wee bit of pressure. Like seeing the jockey pull his stick through as your horse approaches the railway fences at Sandown, the next three obstacles are not ideally to be negotiated while under the cosh. A tally of 1.5 points per game will almost certainly see us in the top six at the split but, given the fixtures thus far, 9pts from 6 is probably slightly closer to seventh place form than sixth. I can’t see the 14/1 “Without Celtic” being value - unlike my view of the 22/1 offered in the opening week of August.

    It appears clubs of Bristol City and Reading size are eyeing current Top Goal Scorer leader Alfredo Morelos, so he’s unlikely to remain with the wee club in Govan past January when the lure of English Division Two is dangled before his agent. Morelos is currently available at a standout 6/1 with Betfair. Sparky is still favourite, but he’s out to 4/1 with Bet365 and Betway. Sinclair is 9/2. The 10/1 offered by Stan and Victor about Dembele is close to being value. The odds on Edouard are 16/1. Moult is 20/1, May 22/1 and there’s a rake of players on 25s and 28s. These do not include Mr. Stokes, who is such outstanding value at 33/1 with 10Bet that it may be worth opening an account with the buggers simply for that one bet (He is only 12/1 with the idiosyncratic Victor.) 10Bet go one-quarter the odds for three places. Get on! Simon Murray remains 50/1 with Bet365. There are some terrible prices around: Squirrel is 80/1 with Sky and far shorter elsewhere; Swanson is 100/1 with chancers Bet365 and Bet10; even Big Dave is no bigger than 100/1.

    Killie are a general 9/4 for the Wooden Spoon. Marathon and Bet365 go 10/3 Partick. It’s 9/2 Accies, 5/1 Dundee and 6/1 Ross. Well are out to 20/1 - so much for the Racing Post’s seemingly shrewd tip at 12s.
    Hibs are now 2/7 for a top-six finish. Sainties are 4/9 and the Gunts 1/2. Well are in to 7/4 with 10Bet and are as short as 5/4 in other places. 9/2 Ross, 8/1 Dundee & Accies, 12/1 Jags, 14/1 Killie.
    It’s 11/4 with SkyBet for Hibs to finish in the bottom six. No other firm is showing as offering prices on Oddschecker. It’s 7/4 Sainties, 13/8 Hearts, 8/13 Well and 1/6 and shorter the rest.

    Six matches in and it’s a tightly contested race in the Championship just now. The Pars gave St.Mirren a 3-0 tanking last Saturday to leapfrog their victims & go top on 13pts. The Buddies are a point adrift on 12pts, with Morton & the Arabs on 11pts, Q.o.S. on 10pts and Livi on 9pts after their win in Inverness.
    I thought the Arabs were fair value at the general 2/1 at the off and I’d be inclined to stick with them now at Fred’s standout 7/4. Victor must have liabilities, as he calls just 5/4. Black Type have St.Mirren at 16/5, while SkyBet’s 3/1 is the best you’ll get from the better-known online firms. The Pars, who go to basketcase Brechin tomorrow, are a best of 13/2 with Betway after Black Type’s Monday morning quote of 10/1 was quickly gobbled. The Doonhamers are 12/1 with Victor, who is also best about Morton at 14/1. There are tempting prices for those who think the two ante-post fancies who’ve started very poorly can recover. Caley, who were a best 5/1 on opening day but who’ve gleaned just 4pts, can be backed at 20/1 with Victor. Winless Falkirk, who went off at 4/1, are 25/1 with Victor. That looks a good each-way bet to me, with one-fifth the odds for three places. I expect the Bairns to make a better job of Livi tomorrow than we did on Tuesday night and 6/5 the home win is worth a punt.
    Stephen Dobbie’s maybe the best player down there and he’s been steamed in to 5/2 jolly in Victor’s top scorer market. Nicky Clark is 7/2. Then it’s 7/1 Andy Ryan, 8/1 Cardle, 9/1 Reilly and Keatings.
    After losing their relegation decider against Dumbarton last weekend, Brechin are 1/6 for the wooden spoon, despite being just a point behind Falkirk. I’d consider 6/1 about Brechin not winning a League match this side of Hogmanay a fair price.

    In Division Three, Ayr are doing a great impression of last season’s Queen of the South side: rampaging through the League Cup, blazing from the blocks in the League and then having the wheels come-off as quickly as they would if you parked at Cappielow & didn’t pay a wee ned to mind them for you. Raith have 16pts and are already 6 points clear of Ayr, Arbroath & Stranraer. 11/8 ante-post, they are now subject of a wide variety of opinions. Victor’s Scottish football prices often appear at odds with everyone else’s and he’s already simply waiting for the weighed-in announcement to pay out. The company formerly fronted by the stylish Mr.Chandler has them at 4/11. However, Rovers can still be backed at 4/5 with 10Bet and they’re 8/11 with Stan & Bet365. Not surprisingly, Victor is a clear best price about every other club in the division, calling 10/3 Ayr, 20/1 Alloa, 25/1 Arbroath and 40/1 Stranraer.
    Victor has a top scorer market down here as well. Amusingly, wee Raith winger Lewis Vaughan is 4/5 after bagging eight goals so far. Vaughan was the guy who arguably did most to relegate Raith at the back end of last season. A very useful prospect a couple of seasons back, he got a long-term injury and struggled for Raith when he returned in the first half of last term. They dropped him, then idiotically loaned him to Dumbarton when they were comfortably in mid-table. He immediately looked high class again and more or less kept the Sons out of the bottom two on his own - at Raith’s expense. Not even Hibs could do something as daft as that. I’ve not seen him this season, but we could do worse than look at the wee bugger before January.

    In the basement, Stirling recovered from the 3-2 loss to Clyde - the only League game in which the Binos haven’t notched at least three goals - to win at Montrose last week. With 15pts, they lead victims Montrose by 4pts, with ante-post jollies Peterhead going easily enough but lying a further point adrift on 10pts.
    Peterhead (at Edinburgh City tomorrow, for those who don’t fancy Dingwall) remain favourites at a best of 11/8 with several firms. Victor has them at 8/11 and reckons it’s a two-horse race, as he’s also worst at 5/2 about Stirling. The Binos, 12/1 as the tapes went up, are available at 4/1 with Fred. As with the division above, Victor is taking a view. He is on the hunt for cash from anyone who doesn’t fancy the two favourites, calling clear best price on the other eight clubs. It’s 13/2 Stenny, 14/1 Montrose, 28/1 Annan & Clyde, 33/1 Elgin.
    In the Wooden Spoon market, Edinburgh City are 13/8 following two successive wins, with Cowdenbeath and Berwick each on 10/3. Annan are 8/1 and it’s 11/1 Elgin.

  9. #9
    Toddler Radge
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    Bet Three-Six-Thieve gone up at 8/1 Hibs for the Wee Cup.
    No value in that for me - unless a plane ices-up at Munich airport - but it's a standout price.

  10. #10
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    I've got hibs at 14/1 to win the cup.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wannabehibee View Post
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    I've got hibs at 14/1 to win the cup.
    I think you can kiss that 50p goodbye.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Shrink View Post
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    I think you can kiss that 50p goodbye.
    I'm optimistic. 😊

  13. #13
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    Unibet & 10Bet. Serious rick - & free money - if you fancy it.

    I prefer to bet in cash and I only have accounts with Betfair and the main "online" firms like 365, Stan & Vic.
    I'd consider fleecing the Bunco Booth operations unethical.
    I've not even been arsed attempting to fleece Betway yet.
    However, Unibet currently have Syria at 20/1 to beat the Aussies in the 2nd leg of the Asia World Cup qualifying play off. The Aussies are 2/17. Many firms haven't priced-up the game yet - understandable, as the 1st leg result will make a difference to the prices.
    Syria are around 3/1 or 7/2 with everyone else who's priced this up and that's the correct price. (Obviously they haven't played a "home" game at home in the entire campaign.) The misfiring Aussies finished behind Japan and Saudi in their group; Syria chased home Iran and S.Korea, finishing ahead of Uzbekistan, China and Qatar's team of mercenaries that's selected under the Jack Charlton's Ireland / Scottish Rugby Union rule of being eligible if you've ever been on a flight that's flown within 1,000 miles of Qatari airspace.
    Go to the "search" facility on the home page and type in "World Cup Qualifying - Asia"... or just tab through the football pages until you get to the relevant market that way.
    As I say, I don't have a Unibet account, but I've scrolled through to the having the cursor over the "place bet" box that says "Syria 20/1" to enter my stake.
    Australia are a best of 4/5 for the match with Fred and are generally 8/11 or so. The draw's available at 3/1. You're not going to make fortunes, but you will make a decent profit by backing all three possible outcomes at those odds.
    For some reason 10Bet also price this up as if it's a rugby or cricket match. They go 2/13 Australia and 69/4 Syria (That's 17/1 in pounds sterling).
    Australia is pretty hot on immigration and visas. Maybe Unibet & 10Bet have been tipped the wink that there will be visa issues, but that doesn't matter for betting purposes.
    Every time I've backed something that should be covered by the "palpable error" rule with Bet365 - and hence be a voided bet - I've been paid... which bloody well amazes me, considering the stunts & "mistakes" Bet365 make when settling or questioning genuine winners. Same goes for any seemingly "palpable errors" I've tipped to acquaintances who have accounts with the other "rick specialists" Betway.
    I can't be arsed opening accounts for stuff like this, but of you fancy a free tenner or so, it's there for you.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by St.Anne's View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I prefer to bet in cash and I only have accounts with Betfair and the main "online" firms like 365, Stan & Vic.
    I'd consider fleecing the Bunco Booth operations unethical.
    I've not even been arsed attempting to fleece Betway yet.
    However, Unibet currently have Syria at 20/1 to beat the Aussies in the 2nd leg of the Asia World Cup qualifying play off. The Aussies are 2/17. Many firms haven't priced-up the game yet - understandable, as the 1st leg result will make a difference to the prices.
    Syria are around 3/1 or 7/2 with everyone else who's priced this up and that's the correct price. (Obviously they haven't played a "home" game at home in the entire campaign.) The misfiring Aussies finished behind Japan and Saudi in their group; Syria chased home Iran and S.Korea, finishing ahead of Uzbekistan, China and Qatar's team of mercenaries that's selected under the Jack Charlton's Ireland / Scottish Rugby Union rule of being eligible if you've ever been on a flight that's flown within 1,000 miles of Qatari airspace.
    Go to the "search" facility on the home page and type in "World Cup Qualifying - Asia"... or just tab through the football pages until you get to the relevant market that way.
    As I say, I don't have a Unibet account, but I've scrolled through to the having the cursor over the "place bet" box that says "Syria 20/1" to enter my stake.
    Australia are a best of 4/5 for the match with Fred and are generally 8/11 or so. The draw's available at 3/1. You're not going to make fortunes, but you will make a decent profit by backing all three possible outcomes at those odds.
    For some reason 10Bet also price this up as if it's a rugby or cricket match. They go 2/13 Australia and 69/4 Syria (That's 17/1 in pounds sterling).
    Australia is pretty hot on immigration and visas. Maybe Unibet & 10Bet have been tipped the wink that there will be visa issues, but that doesn't matter for betting purposes.
    Every time I've backed something that should be covered by the "palpable error" rule with Bet365 - and hence be a voided bet - I've been paid... which bloody well amazes me, considering the stunts & "mistakes" Bet365 make when settling or questioning genuine winners. Same goes for any seemingly "palpable errors" I've tipped to acquaintances who have accounts with the other "rick specialists" Betway.
    I can't be arsed opening accounts for stuff like this, but of you fancy a free tenner or so, it's there for you.
    Nothing unethical about fleecing these companies. If they can't do their job right take advantage, you'll soon be shown the door anyway.

  15. #15
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    D-Day Approaches.

    World Cup.
    Tomorrow.
    Scotland v. Slovakia.
    Scotland are generally being cut but have been lengthened by a couple of firms. Mainly 7/5 in the High Street but 6/4 with Hill’s and Fred, who were both shorter yesterday. Bet365 were the only (relatively) traditional firm going 6/4 yesterday but they now go 29/20.
    Slovakia generally drifting slightly. Were mainly 21/10 yesterday and a lot of firms still call that, but there’s plenty of 11/5 and Bet365, Victor & Boyle’s all go 9/4. Our sponsors call a teeth-gnashing 59/25... out from yesterday’s standout 111/50.
    Draw is shorter than in most matches, at around 21/10 or 11/5, with several big firms going as short as 2/1, but our sponsors go 59/25... out from yesterday’s standout 57/25.
    If only MarathonBet were put in charge of mathematics by the SNP’s education department.
    Slovakia are a better team than Scotland and I can’t see that the jolly boys’ outing along the Road to Russia will be going as far as the final stop. I think 9/4 about the Slovaks is a very good bet.
    John McGinn at 33/1 online with Sportingbet for the opening goal isn’t bad value either.
    Scotland still a standout 7/2 with Hill’s for a top two finish.
    The “To Qualify” odds about Scotland have disappeared.
    Frustratingly, the “Next Scottish Premier Manager to Leave” odds have also disappeared. The scores of “shrewdies” who backed Tommy Wright and Derek McInnes at big odds, hoping chairmen with itchy fingers would hold off until Strachan left the Scotland job, have lost their money. Thanks for that, Roy MacGregor!
    I thought Paddy might be sporting enough to still have a “Sack Race” market up for the SPL, but sadly they don’t.
    Paddy’s do bet on the next Scotland manager, unlike most firms at the minute.
    They go 17/10 Moyes, 4/1 Eck, 6/1 Paul Lambert, Malky Mackay, 7/1 McInnes, 17/2 Stevie Clarke, 10/1 Michael O’Neill. They’re not giving much away, but the 18/1 Tommy Wright is interesting.

    Eight games in domestically.
    After their slightly fortunate 2-2 draw last weekend, Celtic have been joined on 20pts by the Sheep. The gap back to the field is already 6pts, with the Huns and Sainties on 14pts, only a point ahead of ’Well and the Hibees on 13pts. The still Tynieless Gunts are top of the bottom half, with just 9pts from 8 games. Dundee have 8pts. Accies and the under-new-management Ross have 7pts. Partick and Killie are 4pts adrift of the field, having each failed to win a game in gleaning 3pts apiece.
    Celtic are now a best of 1/40 for the flag with Paddy Power. You can get 25/1 the Sheep and 33/ the Huns. Hibs 500/1 with Victor, but a flattering 80/1 with 10Bet and 100/1 with Billy, Stan, Boyle & Bet365.

    “Without Celtic.”
    The Sheep are a best of 5/6 with Paddy and Betway. The Rangers are a standout 13/8 with Stan. Hibs are a standout 14/1 with Victor but seem popular in Ireland, as Paddy goes 17/2 and Boyle call 9/1. It’s 33/1 Sainties, 40/1 the Gunts, 66/1 Motherwell and 100/1 Dundee.

    Top Scorer.
    7/2 Sparky; 5/1 Sinclair; Victor goes a standout 8/1 Morelos; 12/1 Rooney after his weekend hat-trick against Sainties; another Victor standout is 16/1 Dembele, who is 7s and 8s elsewhere; 20/1 Dorrans, Moult & Edouard; Bet365 go a standout 25/1 Stokesy; it’s also 25/1 Goncalves, O’Halloran & May.

    Wooden Spoon.
    2/1 Killie, 5/2 Partick, 7/2 Accies, 8/1 Ross, 8/1 Dundee, 33/1 bar.

    League Cup.
    No change in the prices. The standout 8/1 offered by Bet365 about Hibs is still there.

    SFA Cup.
    The 22/1 about Hibs with 10Bet has now gone. 20/1 with Bet365 and Stan James is the best price you’ll now get about the Cup coming home to Leith. BetFred and Ladbrokes go just 12/1.
    Still 6/5 Celtic, 6/1 Huns, 8/1 Sheep, 16/1 Gunts. Sainties have drifted out to 30/1 and ‘Well are the same price.

    Championship.
    St.Mirren lead on 18pts, the Arabs have 17pts, Pars 16pts, Livi 15pts and Q.o.S. & Morton have 11pts.
    The Arabs struck a serious blow with last weekend’s 3-1 win at East End Park and are now 5/4 almost across the board, though Black Type go 7/5. Black Type are also best about St.Mirren at 14/5, with 5/2 the best offer elsewhere. SkyBet’s 11/2 is a standout about the Pars, as is their 16/1 about Livi, who are as short as 8/1 with Black Type.
    Dobbie’s 3/1 in Victor’s top scorer market. 4/1 Nicky Clark, 5/1 Scott McDonald, 8/1 Andy Ryan and Keats, 9/1 Joe Cardle.
    With Houston gone, I’m even more inclined to think Falkirk will begin a steady climb through the field. The over-round on Victor’s “To Finish in the Top Four” market isn’t generous, but I’ve taken the 3/1 the Bairns to retrieve the 9-point deficit over the next 28 games.
    With just 2pts, Brechin are now 1/16 to finish bottom.

    League One.
    Raith’s loss in Coatbridge on Saturday halted an impressive start to the season but, on 19pts, they’re still three clear of Ayr on 16pts. Albion have 15pts, Arbroath 14pts and East Fife 12pts.
    The bookies still have this as a two-horse race.
    Victor still thinks it’s all over and now has Raith at 1/3, with his 5/2 Ayr the best price about the Honest Men. You can get 4/6 Raith with Skybet and they’re generally 8/13 or 4/7. Victor obviously still goes best price about everyone bar Raith. 25/1 Arbroath, 50/1 Alloa and 66/1 Albion. Not surprisingly, Victor’s book is “Win Only” but Boyle’s and BetFred still have one-fifth the odds for three places and both call 16/1 bar two. If Brechin can get out of this division, even Albion Rovers must have hope.

    League Two.
    An odd weekend down here. Jollies Peterhead were pumped 2-0 at home by Berwick, who I’m guessing didn’t fly up by private jet on the morning of the game and probably didn’t stay overnight. Now all the Little Chefs have gone, those service station breakfasts are things of wonder. Goal spree kings Stirling were a comfortable 2-0 up on Elgin but drew 2-2.
    The Binos still lead on 19pts, but Stenny on 15pts and Montrose on 14pts have passed Peterhead on 13pts. Berwick, clear rank outsiders with every bookie on the first Saturday of August and widely tipped favourites for the Wooden Spoon, have 12pts.
    Plenty of 6/4 now available about Peterhead. Black Type’s 3/1 is a standout for Stirling. Stenny are 9/2 with Victor but 5/2 2nd-favs with Ladbrokes. Then it’s 16/1 Montrose and 33/1 bar.
    Edinburgh City on 6pts are 10/11 for Victor’s Wooden Spoon, Cowdenbeath (5pts) are 11/5 to retain it. Top half or not, Berwick are still third-in at 7/1. Clyde (8pts) look attractive on 18/1 unless they find any more talented but squiggly Africans.

    Challenge Cup.
    No changes at all, such is the enormous interest in the competition where punters clearly have the best chance of catching a bookie with his pants down. 6/1 Arabs & Buddies; 8/1 Pars; 10/1 TNS, Crusaders, Falkirk, Caley; 12/1 Linfield; 14/1 Q.o.S.
    Our beloved sponsors are best price about both teams in the eagerly awaited TV clash between Dundee Hibernian and Belfast Rangers, going 13/20 the (probably under-strength) hosts and a generous 43/10 the fired-up Billy Boys.

  16. #16
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    Scotland 11/5 for the win on Sunday.

    A standout price with Stan James.
    I could be wrong, but I doubt anyone will go bigger.

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    I noticed Syria managed to get a draw against Australia mate, I didn't bother getting involved but keep your posts going St Anne's I for one being known to enjoy a wee gamble also enjoy reading your posts
    I thought Germany half time full time last night at 4/5 was a licence to print money and put them in a treble with under 2.5 goals in the Scotland England games for a decent wee bet

  18. #18
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    Arabs v. Orcs

    I'm doing this thread for info, not to give tips.
    However, I'm extremely surprised that Mark Walker in the Racing Post does not tip Linfield for this evening's TV game at Tannadice. (He tips Falkirk at 5/4 to see-off the Pars and recommends a speculative punt on Peterhead at 5/1 against Caley.) As it's a live match, he has to give the Terrors v. Terrorists encounter a full preview and he recommends "Both Teams To Score" at 14/19 with one of the online Bunco Booth operations.
    At the time the Racing Post went to press, Bet365's 17/4 was the best price about Linfield. MarathonBet's earlier standout had long gone. Bet365 have slashed Linfield to 29/10, which looks the right price and is more or less what everyone else calls (14/5 Stan, 11/4 Fred, 3/1 Billy).
    However, Paddy Power still go 4/1. You'd think Linfield were unpopular in the Republic of Ireland or something. That's simply a plainly wrong price. McKinnon has already said he'll give the kids a run out. Linfield are minus their best player, as Roy Carroll's in Olso and having a goalie who's still genuinely SPL class would certainly help the Billy Boys, but they will otherwise be close to full strength.
    It's obviously a long way from being a sure thing, but 4/1 the Orcs in a great bet.

  19. #19
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    A wee change in the odds!

    Team news sees the Arabs 7/5 and Linfield 9/5... & Linfield have rested a couple of players, so that may be an over-reaction.
    I don't bet normally bet on soccer these days, but it's incredible that those who do pay no heed to competitions like this.

  20. #20
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    Showtime.
    Slovenia v. Scotland.
    If offered a P9 W5 D2 L2 record fourteen months ago, I’d imagine a small majority might have taken it. Needing a win in the last game for second place is about what you’d expect with that record. Of the teams with 17pts, only Ukraine are outside the top two – and that’s only on GD, with a guaranteed play-off slot if they beat Croatia at home in the last game. Results-wise, it’s not been a bad campaign for Scotland overall.
    That initial Thursday night 11/5 about Scotland did not last long. I didn’t see it matched. There was some 21/10 and a fair bit of 2/1, but all that was soon taken and 9/5 was the best available by Friday lunchtime. Only Betway go as big as 7/4 now. Betway also have Slovenia at 7/4. Scotland are favourites with every other bookie. You can get 19/10 Slovenia with several of the Bunco Booths.
    Those prices look wrong. Surging Scotland, at #43, are now 12 places above Slovenia in the F.I.F.A. rankings, but the slumping Slovenes were ahead of Scotland in the August ranking list. I don’t see how Scotland should be favourites out there. It’ll be another ugly arm-wrestle and maybe there’ll be another red card – and the good news is it won’t be for Scott Brown (or Ryan Jack!) – but I can’t fancy Scotland at the price. The odds are down to patriotic Scottish money and the belief that Slovenia, who have nothing to play for unless Slovakia lose at home to Malta, will lay down.
    That in itself is quite amusing. European football, in the minds of fans all over the continent, has a hierarchy of perceived lethargy when it comes to national teams playing in what for them are “meaningless” fixtures. If Scotland were up against a Nordic or Celtic team that had nothing to play for and was of similar ability to Slovenia, Scotland would be a longer price. It would be thought that the northern opposition was too proud (in northern terms) or too stupid (in southern terms) to lay down... unlike those mentally fragile Slavs.
    Conversely, if Scotland were up against a Mediterranean team that had nothing to play for and was of similar ability to Slovenia, Scotland would be an even shorter price than they are for the Ljubliana trip. Slavs might be psychologically suspect, but they are seen as more robust that the siesta-loving shirkers from further south. Disgraceful and probably not something that can be mentioned in polite conversation, but sadly true.
    As an example, Northern Ireland – ranked #20 and comfortably a better team than Scotland on any analysis of the past two years’ results you care to make – are 9/4 to win in Norway, against a team ranked 18 places below Slovenia.
    And, “Yes”, as you asked, Norn Iron do have plenty to play for... if we assume three "gimmes" come home. Assuming France (ranked #8) see off Belarus in Paris to win Group A, assuming Poland (ranked #6) do not shag-up Group E by losing to Montenegro in Warsaw, and assuming Iceland (ranked #22) beat Kosovo in Reykjavik to seal Group I, the teams currently scheduled to be in the seeded bag for the play-off draw are the loser in the Portugal (#3) v. Switzerland (#7) Group B decider, Wales (ranked #13), Italy (ranked #17) and Croatia (ranked #18). However, a Baleless Wales could easily be edged out by a Stokesless Ireland (ranked #34) in the Group D showdown (Serbia could screw up at home to the cussed Georgians and hand Wales the group, but the Serbs are ranked #32 and cannot be seeded) and Croatia lead Ukraine (ranked #24) only on GD as they venture to Kiev for a decider. Norn Iron (ranked #20) may well be seeded as things stand. However, U.E.F.A. are being their sneaky selves and the play-off draw will not be made until October 17th... so it will be based on the new F.I.F.A. rankings that are published on the 16th. I’m not doing the necessary mathematics, but should Norn Iron slip-up in Oslo, play-off contenders Sweden (ranked #23), Ukraine (#24) or even Denmark (#26) might conceivably sneak past them into the seeded bag and leave the Ulstermen looking at a trip to the Estadio da Luz or the Stadio Olimpico.
    Obviously the probable make-up of that seeded bag improves Scotland’s chances of making Russia significantly from the likely seeds of a month ago. A two-legged tie against Wales or Norn Iron would be winnable. I’d imagine weight of Scottish money could see Scotland at 6/5 or 11/10 to qualify if Belfast was on the agenda and maybe 6/4 if Cardiff was the play-off destination.
    Those fancying Scotland to qualify should bear this in mind, as should bookmakers offering “To Qualify” prices... but, not surprisingly, not one gutless swine has a “To Qualify” price available.
    Tell kids today that we used to have bookmakers in this country and, do you know, they’ll not believe you?

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    By Purple & Green in forum General Hibs Chat
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    Last Post: 15-08-10, 14:38
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    By greensalamander in forum General Hibs Chat
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