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  1. #1
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    Odds

    Pass mark for the League Cup group, eminently satisfactory close season transfer business, Stokesy back... allegedly.
    Surely worth a punt or two on the boys.
    It's hard to work out some modern "bookies." BetFred went a standout 25/1 Hibs for "their" League Cup before a ball was kicked (Cheers, Baldy!) and Bet365 were shortest of all at 16/1. Now, with Hibs through and hosting the weakest remaining team, Bet365 have strangely lengthened them to 25/1, while BetFred have understandably shortened the mighty Hibees to 16/1. It's 11/8 Celtic for the wee cup, 6/1 The Rangers, 8/1 Sheep, 20/1 Sainties, 25/1 Well, Ross & Hibs.
    For the big cup, it's 5/4 Celtic, 6/1 The Rangers, 8/1 Sheep, 16 Gunts, 20 Hibs (but 22/1 online with 10Bet).

    The Racing Post preview was out today and its tipsters have an impressive record down the years. Ian Wilkerson, long-term replacement for the much lamented Stuart Carruthers, has been replaced as Scotland specialist by Mark Walker.
    His summary for Hibs? “Neil Lennon’s side made hard work of securing the Championship, but they easily beat Hearts and ran Aberdeen close in the cups. A squad laced with experience should see Hibs do well.” He recommends Hibs to finish above the Gunts at 10/11 with Bet365.

    Celtic are a best-priced 1/9 for the flag with Betfair and as short as 1/20 with Bet365. It’s a “Win Only” market with all the bookies, but the optimistic can back The Rangers at 12/1 with Bet365, the Sheep at 20/1 in a few places, the Gunts at 250/1 with Fred and Hibs at 500/1 with SkyBet. Paddy Power has Hibs at a stingy 100/1.

    Mr.Walker headlines the Sheep at 6/4 with Billy Hill’s and Uncle Rupert in the “Without Celtic” market. He must lose points for the “damp Dingwall on a Tuesday night in February” cliché used to question the new Hispanic recruits at The Rangers, but his preview looks sound. The Rangers are odds-on all round in that market, with 10/11 the best available. The Gunts are 14/1 and Hibs are a best price of 22/1 with Paddy Power... who, as pointed out above, are the worst price in the normal “outright” market. Go figure.

    The secondary headline highlights Motherwell as value for the wooden spoon at 12/1. Mr.Walker expects Louis Moult to depart. There are typo problems with the piece. The bet is recommended as being with Uncle Rupert, but they go 7/1. It’s Hill’s who call the standout 12/1 about ’Well finishing bottom. The Hill’s prices are entirely absent from the table next to the article. Accies were a standout 10/3 for this with Bet365, but were swiftly slashed to 9/4, which is still the best price. Killie are 5/1. Partick are the same odds in the high street, but 13/2 with Black Type online. Ross 6/1, Dundee 7/1, that 12/1 ’Well still seemingly there, Sainties 33/1.

    Sparky is recommended in the Top Goalscorer market at 6/1 with Hill’s, given that Dembele will miss maybe the first half a dozen games with injury. A small each-way wager on Lafferty at 33/1 in that market is also recommended: the lanky icepole of petrified pish having been “shrewdly” backed at 80/1. Hard to argue against 80/1 being good value and the new price isn’t a dire each-way punt at a quarter the odds for three places. It’s 3/1 Dembele; 5/1 Sinclair; 6/1 Sparky; 16 Miller; 20 Morelos, Waghorn & Herrera; 25 Rooney, Armstrong & Moult.

    Mr.Walker’s other Premier suggestions: Partick to finish in the top six at a very fair 5/1 with Hill’s (They are 11/2 online with 10Bet); Sainties at 11/10 with SkyBet to finish in the bottom six (since chopped top even money by the shrewd Uncle Rupert oddsmaker); & Partick to finish above Killie, which really does look a money-buying exercise at 5/6 with Bet365.

    In the lower divisions, Mr.Walker tips Falkirk at 4/1 in what I still call Division Two. Arabs are 2/1 favourites, St.Mirren also 4/1, Caley 5/1, Pars 10/1. There were no relegation odds offered at the time he penned the piece, but he correctly states that any price approaching evens for Brechin to go down would be a knocking bet. BetVictor have since priced-up the wooden spoon. Brechin are twos-on and that’s probably value, unless Dumbarton relax their guard.

    Ayr are the tip at 5/2 in Division Three. Can’t argue with that. Gone fulltime and rampaged through the League Cup: beating Killie, winning 3-1 at Dumbarton and knocking a total of eleven past the two Division Four clubs. Raith are market leaders at Betfair’s 11/8, with Alloa 7/1 and it’s 16/1 bar three.

    Peterhead at SkyBet’s standout 2/1 are the call from Mr.Walker in the basement, with an each-way punt on Stirling at a general 12/1 also suggested. Stenny 11/2 and Clyde 6/1 the only other two shorter than the Binos.

    The Racing & Football Outlook preview was published in last week’s paper. Editor Dan Sait predicted a fifth place finish in the League for Hibs. He also reckoned the Sheep would finish ahead of The Rangers again & also recommended them at 6/4 in the “Without Celtic” market. Had Accies down for the wooden spoon and Dundee for the relegation play-off. Other tips from Mr.Sait were Falkirk each-way at 5/1 (since cut to 4/1) and Livi each-way at 25/1 for Division Two. He felt Raith were dodgy favourites in Division Three but felt unable to give a tip. His biggest suggested investment was for Peterhead at 9/4 in the basement. That was before they beat the Gunts. As above, 2/1 is the best you’ll get now.

  2. #2
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    You forgot to mention what odds hearts are for the league cup

  3. #3
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    Two weeks in...

    With a plum QF draw, Hibs are as short as 5/1 for the Wee Cup but you can get 13/2 with Betway. Celtic a best 11/10, The Rangers 5/1 and the Sheep 6/1 - all of which suggests the bookies think the QFs are a foregone conclusion. For anyone thinking otherwise, 'Well are 16/1, Partick 20/1, Dundee 25/1 and Meadowbank Thistle 100/1.
    No change at all in the betting for the Big Cup.

    Celtic are now a best price of 1/16 for the flag..."Illicit chanting/banners" being a less hazardous potential obstacle under SFA jurisdiction than under UEFA's A couple of firms go 1/33. Still, there could yet be hope on the fiscal shenanigans front. 20/1 for the Sheep and The Rangers. Hibs in to a best 150/1 with Billy's and Victor. Bet365 have been impressed enough to call 50/1.

    In the "Without Celtic" market, only bwin now have The Rangers shorter than the Sheep. Most firms have them jt-favs at 11/10 or 6/5. You can get 5/4 the Sheep with online outfit Black Type. Hibs are an absolute standout 12/1 with the aforementioned bwin, but are 7/1 with just about everyone on the high street (Lads, Billy's, Joe's, Fred, Boyle, Bet365, S.James). Gunts are still 12s and 14s in places and have only drifted to a best offer of 18/1.

    Hill's clearly got filled-in after the Racing Post's tip for 'Well to finish bottom at 12/1, as they now call a clear shortest price of 5/1. Not a lot of change in the wooden spoon market. Accies 5/2 favs, 4/1 Killie, 9/2 Partick, 5/1 Dundee, 7/1 'Well, 7/1 Ross. Sainties are 66/1 and SkyBet go 100/1 the Gunts.

    Sparky now 9/4 fav. in the top scorer market. 5/1 Sinclair, 6/1 Dembele. Betfair have Waghorn in the list at 20/1 - I hope they don't know something we're not privvy to . Morelos also 20/1. 25/1 Herrera, O'Halloran, Rooney & Stevie May. Stokesy a best of 40/1 with Hill's; Simon Murray a standout 50/1 with Bet365 but only 20/1 in places.

    Wide differences of opinion in Division Two. The Arabs have been slashed to 4/5 or 5/6 with Victor and Paddy, but 6/4 is still available with Bet365 and SkyBet. Bairns out to a standout 13/2 with Victor - the same standout price Black Type offer about St.Mirren, who are as short as 4/1 in several places. 10/1 the Pars and Caley.

    Raith still head the Div.3 market at 5/4 (13/10 with Black Type), while Ayr's avalanche of goals has seen them come in to a general 6/4 (13/8 online with Sports Winner) and Alloa are out to 10/1. It's 33/1 bar three.

    Only Bet365 and Stan James call evens Peterhead in Div.4, with every other firm having them odds-on. 6/1 Clyde, 8/1 Stenny, 8/1 Stirling, 16/1 bar four.

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    At 50/1 Simon Murray has got to be worth it.


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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bofahibee View Post
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    At 50/1 Simon Murray has got to be worth it.


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    If you're going to back SM for TGS do it now as the odds will change at 12.30 according to Bet365 website.
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  6. #6
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    Update...

    International break? Pah! When men were men, they played midweek, travelled by train & ferry, and turned out for the proper games on Saturday. That’s how it should be.
    Scotland are 33/1 with Hill’s to qualify for the World Cup Finals. That looks a good price at first glance. Maximum points from the Lithuania & Malta games is a realistic aim and Slovakia might well slip-up against Slovenia. It’s not impossible Scotland might be back on level terms for the runners-up spot by Monday night.
    However, once you look at the other groups, the price is unattractive. UEFA will presumably seed the play-off draw. Scotland, should they make it, will not be seeded. Either Spain or Italy will be in the seeded hat. Portugal currently trail Switzerland by three points and face a trip to Hungary on Sunday. France trail Sweden and are playing misfiring Holland tonight.
    So, the second-favs and fourth-favs for the whole shebang in some lists, plus the European Champeens, could all be laying in wait for Scotland. Strachan’s lads would not exactly be a worthwhile sporting bet at 7/4 over two legs against any of that trio. Let’s move on.

    Champions League. I can’t say I care a jot about the co-efficient. The one set of fans who should are the Huns. A couple of impressive European campaigns by Celtic might get Scotland’s second Champions League place restored. I doubt the average Sheep is either deluded or arrogant enough to think his side will make an impression. The average Hun probably is.
    Celtic are 1,000/1 to regain the trophy with Black Type and 500/1 with several more established bookies.
    For the group, it’s 10/11 Bayern, evens P.S.G.... & 100/1 is available for both Celtic and Anderlecht. The biggest price at which any bookie offered any team for any of the League Cup groups last month was 40/1, which shows you the level of inequality in European club football.
    Celtic are 14/1 with Hill’s to qualify for the last 16.
    The 12/1 about Celtic beating P.S.G. in the opening match looks reasonable value.

    Hibswise... I’m less perturbed than I was a fortnight ago that a lack of prices on their screens prevented me backing the Hibees at Hill’s 22/1 in the Premier Division’s “Without Celtic” book. Victor now goes a standout 14/1 Hibs in that market. The Sheep are a standout 11/10 with Bet365, The Rangers are 6/4 with a couple of the online boys and Sainties are 20/1 with Paddy. The Gunts are 28/1 with Fred.
    In the outright market, Celtic are a best 1/25 – and that’s with the two Irish firms: Paddy and Boyle’s. Aberdeen are 20/1 with SkyBet, The Rangers 33/1 with Hills. Hibs now 250/1 with SkyBet, Victor and our beloved shirt sponsors.
    The contest for the Wooden Spoon has seen Killie assume favouritism. 11/4 with Paddy, Stan & Victor is the best you’ll get. Accies are out to 9/2. Black Type seem to be out for headlines and are taking a position on Partick at 5/1, Dundee at 6/1 and Ross at 12/1. The Jags are no bigger than Bet365’s 10/3 elsewhere, while Dundee are no bigger than 4/1 with anyone else and 9/1 is the next best price about Ross. Black Type don’t think much of ’Well, though – having them at 6/1 when SkyBet offer 14/1.
    Top Goalscorer has seen Sparky drift slightly to 5/2 with Victor. It’s then 5/1 Sinclair, 7/1 Dembele and 12/1 Morelos. Herrera is 22/1, it’s 25/1 Rooney and May, O’Halloran is 28s and the transfer window is about to slam shut with Moult still offered at 33/1. Stokes is 40/1 with Hill’s; Simon Murray 50/1 with Bet365. I have to say Stokesy at that price is the one Hibs bet I’m thinking about right now. Each-way is available, though several tightwad bookies call one-fifth the odds for three places... outrageously including Britain’s Biggest Bookmaker, Billy Hill’s. (Someone have a word, for feck sake!) Most bookies go a quarter the odds for three places.

    In Division Two, the Arabs are a general 6/4. Black Type are acting the wag again here, though their compiler clearly fancies the Arabs and Caley. It’s 4/1 St.Mirren with Black Type, while of all the other bookies only Victor at 10/3 goes bigger than 3/1. The 7/1 about the Pars is also a Black Type standout. Inverness are 10s with Victor. QoS are 14/1 with Black Type and Falkirk are a general 16/1.
    Victor has a Wooden Spoon market: 1/5 Brechin, 7/2 Dumbarton, 20/1 bar! There’s a top scorer book as well, in which Keatings share favouritism with Nathan Austin at 8/1.

    Ayr’s surprise home loss to Arbroath has seen Raith go odds-on in Division Three, with 10/11 widely available. Ayr are out to a standout 2/1 with Bet365. Alloa are third-in at 14/1

    Peterhead’s home pumping by Stirling has seen the Blue Toon lengthened to 13/8 for the Division Three title by Bet365, though Victor still calls evens. 100% Stirling are now in to 7/2. Stenny are 6/1 and Montrose 10s.
    Victor has a Wooden Spoon market, in which Edinburgh City are 4/5 – a tad insulting after four games.

    Cups? No change for any of the quarter-finalists in the Wee Cup, for which Hibs remain priced between 5/1 and 13/2.
    For the Big Cup, all the 5/4 Celtic has been nibbled and 6/5 is the best you’ll get. No other changes at all, so 22/1 with 10Bet remains the Hibs standout price, with 20/1 available elsewhere.

    Betway and Victor have priced-up the Challenge Cup. I don’t recall seeing odds for that until much later last season. The Arabs are 4/1 favs. St.Mirren are 10/1, Caley and perennial Welsh champs TNS – who lost a game a couple of weeks back! – are 12/1. Bray Wanderers are 16/1, in spite of teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and being down to 500 or so fans. They have allegedly satisfied the F.A.I. that they will complete the current (summer) season. On 20/1 we have Huns U20s, Accies U20s and Sligo Rovers. I might be tempted by 20s Sligo – a proper club in a soccer town – but they’re only one point above the relegation trapdoor with six games to play. They host Falkirk this weekend.
    Anyone with nothing better to do could do worse than give Spartans a hearty cheer against Linfield... just so long as you watch for Buckie bottles and don’t attach anything to the goalposts.

  7. #7
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    World Cup & Challenge Cup observations.

    Starting with the World Cup. I still don’t think 33/1 about Scotland qualifying prior to the last two rounds of matches was value, but the 9/2 now offered by SkyBet, who are the only firm to price this up according to Oddschecker, is truly comical. You can get 7/2 Scotland in the “Top Two Group Finish” market with Hill’s! (Slovakia a best 8/11, Slovenia a best 10/3.) Anyone agreeing with the 7/2 “Top Two” odds would need to make Scotland a 2/9 shot to win their play-off tie in order to come up with a price of 9/2 to reach Russia. I don’t study “To Qualify” markets, but perhaps I should as it appears to be an area where bookies make errors - as evidenced by the reluctance of most of them to offer a “Not To Qualify” price. Italy will be in the play-off hat. I’d want 3/1 to consider a bet on Scotland beating Italy over two legs. Portugal are a shade of odds-on to be in the hat. France are still not certainties to avoid the play-offs. Scotland would need to be even bigger than 3/1 for me to consider an investment against either of those two. With potential play-off opponents unknown, I’d say 5/2 Scotland winning what’s currently a “blind” play-off would be fair. A win against Switzerland, Sweden or Wales, any of whom could end-up as the 3rd and/or 4th team in the seeded bag, would be tricky but achievable. So, if the 7/2 for a “Top Two” finish is about right – and I think it is – then around 15/1 is what Scotland should be to make it to Russia.
    Incidentally, though playing every qualifier in the final round of UEFA matches at the same time would presumably hammer TV revenues and maybe hit gate receipts a wee bit, UEFA are possibly letting themselves in for trouble by staging the final round over three days. One of the runners-up does not make the play-offs. Teams playing on the last day may know what they have to do in order to screw some poor sods who played on the first two days. The Switzerland/Portugal and France/Sweden groups playing on the last day should not cause a problem. The Bosnia/Greece group going last may well do. It looks as if Wales or Ireland are more likely than whoever is 2nd in Scotland's group to be the unfortunate team in the sights of the "convenient" last day result.

    A word about the Fizzy-Pop Cup. Making money from bookies on football is sometimes easier than you’d think. As they clashed with the international break, the Racing Post’s Mark Walker was given the same amount of column inches to preview the last batch of Irn Bru matches as he’d get for a full Scottish domestic fixture list on a normal Saturday. He didn’t need it. He simply opted for a “men against boys” line of reasoning. The gulf between semi-pro footballers from lower division clubs and the kids at the various U-20s teams surprised many in this competition last term. Walker was sure the gulf still exists. He simply blindly picked the four senior teams that were facing U-20 opposition and were reasonable prices. They all duly obliged, bagging 13 goals (three threes and a four) between them. Crusaders at 11/8 against ’Well, Cove at 13/8 away to Accies, Raith at evens against Ross, and St.Mirren at 8/11 against the Gunts. You wouldn’t have got all those odds with a single firm on the accumulator, but a return of £150 or so for a tenner is not to be sniffed at. Stranraer had been 29/20 at home to Partick U-20s on the Friday night and duly pumped them 2-0. That would’ve made it a five-timer. Put that in the notebook for next year. You can bet your balls most punters and bookies will have forgotten the lesson by then.

    Have to say I'm a little un-nerved by Hibs being favourites in Perth tomorrow. So far we've done exactly what a club heading for sixth place at the split, with a w12 d9 l12 record, would have done. Two home games v. the wooden spoon favs and a team rated bottom six material; two away games, v. the 2nd favs and another club seemingly destined for the lower half. Two wins, a draw and a loss is a bang level par score.
    I still think we're better than sixth, and it wouldn't be totally unreasonable to argue for form lines that might make Hibs a slightly better team than Sainties, but such an analysis of the formbook would be slightly generous. You have to allow for home advantage though, so I can't see any grounds at all for Hibs being favs at McDiarmid Park. I would be mildly surprised if Mr.Walker does not advise Sainties at 9/5 as being a value bet in tomorrow's Racing Post.

  8. #8
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    We're Back At Hampden!

    So. The Wee Mickey Mouse Cup. Simply a pre-season inconvenience, which apparently we shouldn’t even bother entering. If only that fat, four-eyed Sassenach bar steward would let us get away with not entering it. But whaddya know? We’re on our way down Cathcart Road again. The mighty Hibees were so impressive in dismantling Ferranti Thistle that the bookies cut the odds from 13/2 to 6/1 on Wednesday morning. The dire draw has seen Hibs pushed back out to 7/1 by Betway. I’d not be taking that. Celtic were an enticing 5/6 to lift the trophy pre-kickoff at Fir Park last night, where the Sheep were odds-on across the board for the win inside 90 minutes. I’m surprised Fred is still offering 8/11. Betway have the Celts at 4/7, which is about right in my view. They go a best 3/1 The Rangers and a whopping 16/1 Motherwell, who are only 8/1 with Fred. A lot of firms have yet to update after the Fir Park action, never mind the draw.

    It’s Spartans v. Vale of Leithen in the opening match of “The Big Cup” tonight. No movement at all in the outright betting. Still 6/5 Celtic, 6/1 The Rangers, 8/1 Sheep, 16/1 Gunts, 22/1 us (still only with 10Bet), 25/1 Sainties, 30/1 Well.

    The Challenge Cup is still the “Scottish” tournament punters should be looking most closely at, because bookies will make far more mistakes pricing-up a competition with clubs from five different leagues, with minimal inter-league fixture history, than they will in setting odds for domestic leagues and cups.
    Victor has shortened holders and favourites Dundee United to 7/2, but 6/1 is available with Betway and Bet365. The Arabs have been drawn at home to Linfield In the international break. Arab messageboards are convinced that many Weegie Orcs have misunderstood “Dundee” in its 1689 context and will descend in numbers on the city in support of their Belfast brethren, seeking vengeance and possibly diverting to lay waste Killiecrankie on the way. It’s also 6/1 St.Mirren, who host Raith in the last 16. The Pars are 8/1, which looks skinny with a trip to Falkirk next up. The Bairns, who somehow survived a battering to win 2-1 against an unexpectedly strong Sligo XI, are one of several 10/1 shots. Caley are 10/1 and host the might Peterhead. The two foreign raiders on 10/1 are Crusaders, who travel to Cove, and T.N.S. who host Elgin. The 10/1 about the Taffs is with 10Bet, though Victor quotes them at 6/1 jt-2nd-favs. Linfield are a standout 12/1 with Victor but only 9/1 elsewhere. At 14/1 with Victor, I’d say Q.o.S. might be the most tempting bet. They go to Montrose next up.

    The League. In which - just in case it’s escaped anyone’s attention - we’ve hoovered-up three points from four games v. Accies, Dundee, Sainties and Well. In many seasons over the past 25 to 30 years, the team that’s chased home the Auld Firm for the bronze (or chased home Celtic for the silver of late) might well have dropped a fistful of points against bottom-half shoo-ins and may even have lost at home to the wooden spoon favourites. It’s unlikely too many podium finishers have endured a four-game streak on a par with Hibs’ record since mid-August though.
    Sky go a generous 1/25 Celtic for the flag. There are probably financial markets where a 4% return on investment by the end of April looks more attractive. Only “probably” though. 25/1 the Sheep, 30/1 The Rangers. We’re back out to the pre-season 500/1 with Victor.
    In the “Without Celtic” market we are not yet back out to the pre-season 20/1. Give it another none days. Victor and Betway are best about Hibs at 14/1. The Sheep are now 6/5 with Bet365. The Huns are 6/4 with a couple of the online casino bunco booths that run an occasional book as a sideline.
    One loss all season or not, I reckon we need a win tomorrow. If we don’t get three points up there - and I think 10/11 is the worst value price I’ve seen for a Hibs game this term - then I’d say we are under a wee bit of pressure. Like seeing the jockey pull his stick through as your horse approaches the railway fences at Sandown, the next three obstacles are not ideally to be negotiated while under the cosh. A tally of 1.5 points per game will almost certainly see us in the top six at the split but, given the fixtures thus far, 9pts from 6 is probably slightly closer to seventh place form than sixth. I can’t see the 14/1 “Without Celtic” being value - unlike my view of the 22/1 offered in the opening week of August.

    It appears clubs of Bristol City and Reading size are eyeing current Top Goal Scorer leader Alfredo Morelos, so he’s unlikely to remain with the wee club in Govan past January when the lure of English Division Two is dangled before his agent. Morelos is currently available at a standout 6/1 with Betfair. Sparky is still favourite, but he’s out to 4/1 with Bet365 and Betway. Sinclair is 9/2. The 10/1 offered by Stan and Victor about Dembele is close to being value. The odds on Edouard are 16/1. Moult is 20/1, May 22/1 and there’s a rake of players on 25s and 28s. These do not include Mr. Stokes, who is such outstanding value at 33/1 with 10Bet that it may be worth opening an account with the buggers simply for that one bet (He is only 12/1 with the idiosyncratic Victor.) 10Bet go one-quarter the odds for three places. Get on! Simon Murray remains 50/1 with Bet365. There are some terrible prices around: Squirrel is 80/1 with Sky and far shorter elsewhere; Swanson is 100/1 with chancers Bet365 and Bet10; even Big Dave is no bigger than 100/1.

    Killie are a general 9/4 for the Wooden Spoon. Marathon and Bet365 go 10/3 Partick. It’s 9/2 Accies, 5/1 Dundee and 6/1 Ross. Well are out to 20/1 - so much for the Racing Post’s seemingly shrewd tip at 12s.
    Hibs are now 2/7 for a top-six finish. Sainties are 4/9 and the Gunts 1/2. Well are in to 7/4 with 10Bet and are as short as 5/4 in other places. 9/2 Ross, 8/1 Dundee & Accies, 12/1 Jags, 14/1 Killie.
    It’s 11/4 with SkyBet for Hibs to finish in the bottom six. No other firm is showing as offering prices on Oddschecker. It’s 7/4 Sainties, 13/8 Hearts, 8/13 Well and 1/6 and shorter the rest.

    Six matches in and it’s a tightly contested race in the Championship just now. The Pars gave St.Mirren a 3-0 tanking last Saturday to leapfrog their victims & go top on 13pts. The Buddies are a point adrift on 12pts, with Morton & the Arabs on 11pts, Q.o.S. on 10pts and Livi on 9pts after their win in Inverness.
    I thought the Arabs were fair value at the general 2/1 at the off and I’d be inclined to stick with them now at Fred’s standout 7/4. Victor must have liabilities, as he calls just 5/4. Black Type have St.Mirren at 16/5, while SkyBet’s 3/1 is the best you’ll get from the better-known online firms. The Pars, who go to basketcase Brechin tomorrow, are a best of 13/2 with Betway after Black Type’s Monday morning quote of 10/1 was quickly gobbled. The Doonhamers are 12/1 with Victor, who is also best about Morton at 14/1. There are tempting prices for those who think the two ante-post fancies who’ve started very poorly can recover. Caley, who were a best 5/1 on opening day but who’ve gleaned just 4pts, can be backed at 20/1 with Victor. Winless Falkirk, who went off at 4/1, are 25/1 with Victor. That looks a good each-way bet to me, with one-fifth the odds for three places. I expect the Bairns to make a better job of Livi tomorrow than we did on Tuesday night and 6/5 the home win is worth a punt.
    Stephen Dobbie’s maybe the best player down there and he’s been steamed in to 5/2 jolly in Victor’s top scorer market. Nicky Clark is 7/2. Then it’s 7/1 Andy Ryan, 8/1 Cardle, 9/1 Reilly and Keatings.
    After losing their relegation decider against Dumbarton last weekend, Brechin are 1/6 for the wooden spoon, despite being just a point behind Falkirk. I’d consider 6/1 about Brechin not winning a League match this side of Hogmanay a fair price.

    In Division Three, Ayr are doing a great impression of last season’s Queen of the South side: rampaging through the League Cup, blazing from the blocks in the League and then having the wheels come-off as quickly as they would if you parked at Cappielow & didn’t pay a wee ned to mind them for you. Raith have 16pts and are already 6 points clear of Ayr, Arbroath & Stranraer. 11/8 ante-post, they are now subject of a wide variety of opinions. Victor’s Scottish football prices often appear at odds with everyone else’s and he’s already simply waiting for the weighed-in announcement to pay out. The company formerly fronted by the stylish Mr.Chandler has them at 4/11. However, Rovers can still be backed at 4/5 with 10Bet and they’re 8/11 with Stan & Bet365. Not surprisingly, Victor is a clear best price about every other club in the division, calling 10/3 Ayr, 20/1 Alloa, 25/1 Arbroath and 40/1 Stranraer.
    Victor has a top scorer market down here as well. Amusingly, wee Raith winger Lewis Vaughan is 4/5 after bagging eight goals so far. Vaughan was the guy who arguably did most to relegate Raith at the back end of last season. A very useful prospect a couple of seasons back, he got a long-term injury and struggled for Raith when he returned in the first half of last term. They dropped him, then idiotically loaned him to Dumbarton when they were comfortably in mid-table. He immediately looked high class again and more or less kept the Sons out of the bottom two on his own - at Raith’s expense. Not even Hibs could do something as daft as that. I’ve not seen him this season, but we could do worse than look at the wee bugger before January.

    In the basement, Stirling recovered from the 3-2 loss to Clyde - the only League game in which the Binos haven’t notched at least three goals - to win at Montrose last week. With 15pts, they lead victims Montrose by 4pts, with ante-post jollies Peterhead going easily enough but lying a further point adrift on 10pts.
    Peterhead (at Edinburgh City tomorrow, for those who don’t fancy Dingwall) remain favourites at a best of 11/8 with several firms. Victor has them at 8/11 and reckons it’s a two-horse race, as he’s also worst at 5/2 about Stirling. The Binos, 12/1 as the tapes went up, are available at 4/1 with Fred. As with the division above, Victor is taking a view. He is on the hunt for cash from anyone who doesn’t fancy the two favourites, calling clear best price on the other eight clubs. It’s 13/2 Stenny, 14/1 Montrose, 28/1 Annan & Clyde, 33/1 Elgin.
    In the Wooden Spoon market, Edinburgh City are 13/8 following two successive wins, with Cowdenbeath and Berwick each on 10/3. Annan are 8/1 and it’s 11/1 Elgin.

  9. #9
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    Bet Three-Six-Thieve gone up at 8/1 Hibs for the Wee Cup.
    No value in that for me - unless a plane ices-up at Munich airport - but it's a standout price.

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    I've got hibs at 14/1 to win the cup.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wannabehibee View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I've got hibs at 14/1 to win the cup.
    I think you can kiss that 50p goodbye.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Shrink View Post
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    I think you can kiss that 50p goodbye.
    I'm optimistic. 😊

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    Unibet & 10Bet. Serious rick - & free money - if you fancy it.

    I prefer to bet in cash and I only have accounts with Betfair and the main "online" firms like 365, Stan & Vic.
    I'd consider fleecing the Bunco Booth operations unethical.
    I've not even been arsed attempting to fleece Betway yet.
    However, Unibet currently have Syria at 20/1 to beat the Aussies in the 2nd leg of the Asia World Cup qualifying play off. The Aussies are 2/17. Many firms haven't priced-up the game yet - understandable, as the 1st leg result will make a difference to the prices.
    Syria are around 3/1 or 7/2 with everyone else who's priced this up and that's the correct price. (Obviously they haven't played a "home" game at home in the entire campaign.) The misfiring Aussies finished behind Japan and Saudi in their group; Syria chased home Iran and S.Korea, finishing ahead of Uzbekistan, China and Qatar's team of mercenaries that's selected under the Jack Charlton's Ireland / Scottish Rugby Union rule of being eligible if you've ever been on a flight that's flown within 1,000 miles of Qatari airspace.
    Go to the "search" facility on the home page and type in "World Cup Qualifying - Asia"... or just tab through the football pages until you get to the relevant market that way.
    As I say, I don't have a Unibet account, but I've scrolled through to the having the cursor over the "place bet" box that says "Syria 20/1" to enter my stake.
    Australia are a best of 4/5 for the match with Fred and are generally 8/11 or so. The draw's available at 3/1. You're not going to make fortunes, but you will make a decent profit by backing all three possible outcomes at those odds.
    For some reason 10Bet also price this up as if it's a rugby or cricket match. They go 2/13 Australia and 69/4 Syria (That's 17/1 in pounds sterling).
    Australia is pretty hot on immigration and visas. Maybe Unibet & 10Bet have been tipped the wink that there will be visa issues, but that doesn't matter for betting purposes.
    Every time I've backed something that should be covered by the "palpable error" rule with Bet365 - and hence be a voided bet - I've been paid... which bloody well amazes me, considering the stunts & "mistakes" Bet365 make when settling or questioning genuine winners. Same goes for any seemingly "palpable errors" I've tipped to acquaintances who have accounts with the other "rick specialists" Betway.
    I can't be arsed opening accounts for stuff like this, but of you fancy a free tenner or so, it's there for you.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by St.Anne's View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I prefer to bet in cash and I only have accounts with Betfair and the main "online" firms like 365, Stan & Vic.
    I'd consider fleecing the Bunco Booth operations unethical.
    I've not even been arsed attempting to fleece Betway yet.
    However, Unibet currently have Syria at 20/1 to beat the Aussies in the 2nd leg of the Asia World Cup qualifying play off. The Aussies are 2/17. Many firms haven't priced-up the game yet - understandable, as the 1st leg result will make a difference to the prices.
    Syria are around 3/1 or 7/2 with everyone else who's priced this up and that's the correct price. (Obviously they haven't played a "home" game at home in the entire campaign.) The misfiring Aussies finished behind Japan and Saudi in their group; Syria chased home Iran and S.Korea, finishing ahead of Uzbekistan, China and Qatar's team of mercenaries that's selected under the Jack Charlton's Ireland / Scottish Rugby Union rule of being eligible if you've ever been on a flight that's flown within 1,000 miles of Qatari airspace.
    Go to the "search" facility on the home page and type in "World Cup Qualifying - Asia"... or just tab through the football pages until you get to the relevant market that way.
    As I say, I don't have a Unibet account, but I've scrolled through to the having the cursor over the "place bet" box that says "Syria 20/1" to enter my stake.
    Australia are a best of 4/5 for the match with Fred and are generally 8/11 or so. The draw's available at 3/1. You're not going to make fortunes, but you will make a decent profit by backing all three possible outcomes at those odds.
    For some reason 10Bet also price this up as if it's a rugby or cricket match. They go 2/13 Australia and 69/4 Syria (That's 17/1 in pounds sterling).
    Australia is pretty hot on immigration and visas. Maybe Unibet & 10Bet have been tipped the wink that there will be visa issues, but that doesn't matter for betting purposes.
    Every time I've backed something that should be covered by the "palpable error" rule with Bet365 - and hence be a voided bet - I've been paid... which bloody well amazes me, considering the stunts & "mistakes" Bet365 make when settling or questioning genuine winners. Same goes for any seemingly "palpable errors" I've tipped to acquaintances who have accounts with the other "rick specialists" Betway.
    I can't be arsed opening accounts for stuff like this, but of you fancy a free tenner or so, it's there for you.
    Nothing unethical about fleecing these companies. If they can't do their job right take advantage, you'll soon be shown the door anyway.

  15. #15
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    D-Day Approaches.

    World Cup.
    Tomorrow.
    Scotland v. Slovakia.
    Scotland are generally being cut but have been lengthened by a couple of firms. Mainly 7/5 in the High Street but 6/4 with Hill’s and Fred, who were both shorter yesterday. Bet365 were the only (relatively) traditional firm going 6/4 yesterday but they now go 29/20.
    Slovakia generally drifting slightly. Were mainly 21/10 yesterday and a lot of firms still call that, but there’s plenty of 11/5 and Bet365, Victor & Boyle’s all go 9/4. Our sponsors call a teeth-gnashing 59/25... out from yesterday’s standout 111/50.
    Draw is shorter than in most matches, at around 21/10 or 11/5, with several big firms going as short as 2/1, but our sponsors go 59/25... out from yesterday’s standout 57/25.
    If only MarathonBet were put in charge of mathematics by the SNP’s education department.
    Slovakia are a better team than Scotland and I can’t see that the jolly boys’ outing along the Road to Russia will be going as far as the final stop. I think 9/4 about the Slovaks is a very good bet.
    John McGinn at 33/1 online with Sportingbet for the opening goal isn’t bad value either.
    Scotland still a standout 7/2 with Hill’s for a top two finish.
    The “To Qualify” odds about Scotland have disappeared.
    Frustratingly, the “Next Scottish Premier Manager to Leave” odds have also disappeared. The scores of “shrewdies” who backed Tommy Wright and Derek McInnes at big odds, hoping chairmen with itchy fingers would hold off until Strachan left the Scotland job, have lost their money. Thanks for that, Roy MacGregor!
    I thought Paddy might be sporting enough to still have a “Sack Race” market up for the SPL, but sadly they don’t.
    Paddy’s do bet on the next Scotland manager, unlike most firms at the minute.
    They go 17/10 Moyes, 4/1 Eck, 6/1 Paul Lambert, Malky Mackay, 7/1 McInnes, 17/2 Stevie Clarke, 10/1 Michael O’Neill. They’re not giving much away, but the 18/1 Tommy Wright is interesting.

    Eight games in domestically.
    After their slightly fortunate 2-2 draw last weekend, Celtic have been joined on 20pts by the Sheep. The gap back to the field is already 6pts, with the Huns and Sainties on 14pts, only a point ahead of ’Well and the Hibees on 13pts. The still Tynieless Gunts are top of the bottom half, with just 9pts from 8 games. Dundee have 8pts. Accies and the under-new-management Ross have 7pts. Partick and Killie are 4pts adrift of the field, having each failed to win a game in gleaning 3pts apiece.
    Celtic are now a best of 1/40 for the flag with Paddy Power. You can get 25/1 the Sheep and 33/ the Huns. Hibs 500/1 with Victor, but a flattering 80/1 with 10Bet and 100/1 with Billy, Stan, Boyle & Bet365.

    “Without Celtic.”
    The Sheep are a best of 5/6 with Paddy and Betway. The Rangers are a standout 13/8 with Stan. Hibs are a standout 14/1 with Victor but seem popular in Ireland, as Paddy goes 17/2 and Boyle call 9/1. It’s 33/1 Sainties, 40/1 the Gunts, 66/1 Motherwell and 100/1 Dundee.

    Top Scorer.
    7/2 Sparky; 5/1 Sinclair; Victor goes a standout 8/1 Morelos; 12/1 Rooney after his weekend hat-trick against Sainties; another Victor standout is 16/1 Dembele, who is 7s and 8s elsewhere; 20/1 Dorrans, Moult & Edouard; Bet365 go a standout 25/1 Stokesy; it’s also 25/1 Goncalves, O’Halloran & May.

    Wooden Spoon.
    2/1 Killie, 5/2 Partick, 7/2 Accies, 8/1 Ross, 8/1 Dundee, 33/1 bar.

    League Cup.
    No change in the prices. The standout 8/1 offered by Bet365 about Hibs is still there.

    SFA Cup.
    The 22/1 about Hibs with 10Bet has now gone. 20/1 with Bet365 and Stan James is the best price you’ll now get about the Cup coming home to Leith. BetFred and Ladbrokes go just 12/1.
    Still 6/5 Celtic, 6/1 Huns, 8/1 Sheep, 16/1 Gunts. Sainties have drifted out to 30/1 and ‘Well are the same price.

    Championship.
    St.Mirren lead on 18pts, the Arabs have 17pts, Pars 16pts, Livi 15pts and Q.o.S. & Morton have 11pts.
    The Arabs struck a serious blow with last weekend’s 3-1 win at East End Park and are now 5/4 almost across the board, though Black Type go 7/5. Black Type are also best about St.Mirren at 14/5, with 5/2 the best offer elsewhere. SkyBet’s 11/2 is a standout about the Pars, as is their 16/1 about Livi, who are as short as 8/1 with Black Type.
    Dobbie’s 3/1 in Victor’s top scorer market. 4/1 Nicky Clark, 5/1 Scott McDonald, 8/1 Andy Ryan and Keats, 9/1 Joe Cardle.
    With Houston gone, I’m even more inclined to think Falkirk will begin a steady climb through the field. The over-round on Victor’s “To Finish in the Top Four” market isn’t generous, but I’ve taken the 3/1 the Bairns to retrieve the 9-point deficit over the next 28 games.
    With just 2pts, Brechin are now 1/16 to finish bottom.

    League One.
    Raith’s loss in Coatbridge on Saturday halted an impressive start to the season but, on 19pts, they’re still three clear of Ayr on 16pts. Albion have 15pts, Arbroath 14pts and East Fife 12pts.
    The bookies still have this as a two-horse race.
    Victor still thinks it’s all over and now has Raith at 1/3, with his 5/2 Ayr the best price about the Honest Men. You can get 4/6 Raith with Skybet and they’re generally 8/13 or 4/7. Victor obviously still goes best price about everyone bar Raith. 25/1 Arbroath, 50/1 Alloa and 66/1 Albion. Not surprisingly, Victor’s book is “Win Only” but Boyle’s and BetFred still have one-fifth the odds for three places and both call 16/1 bar two. If Brechin can get out of this division, even Albion Rovers must have hope.

    League Two.
    An odd weekend down here. Jollies Peterhead were pumped 2-0 at home by Berwick, who I’m guessing didn’t fly up by private jet on the morning of the game and probably didn’t stay overnight. Now all the Little Chefs have gone, those service station breakfasts are things of wonder. Goal spree kings Stirling were a comfortable 2-0 up on Elgin but drew 2-2.
    The Binos still lead on 19pts, but Stenny on 15pts and Montrose on 14pts have passed Peterhead on 13pts. Berwick, clear rank outsiders with every bookie on the first Saturday of August and widely tipped favourites for the Wooden Spoon, have 12pts.
    Plenty of 6/4 now available about Peterhead. Black Type’s 3/1 is a standout for Stirling. Stenny are 9/2 with Victor but 5/2 2nd-favs with Ladbrokes. Then it’s 16/1 Montrose and 33/1 bar.
    Edinburgh City on 6pts are 10/11 for Victor’s Wooden Spoon, Cowdenbeath (5pts) are 11/5 to retain it. Top half or not, Berwick are still third-in at 7/1. Clyde (8pts) look attractive on 18/1 unless they find any more talented but squiggly Africans.

    Challenge Cup.
    No changes at all, such is the enormous interest in the competition where punters clearly have the best chance of catching a bookie with his pants down. 6/1 Arabs & Buddies; 8/1 Pars; 10/1 TNS, Crusaders, Falkirk, Caley; 12/1 Linfield; 14/1 Q.o.S.
    Our beloved sponsors are best price about both teams in the eagerly awaited TV clash between Dundee Hibernian and Belfast Rangers, going 13/20 the (probably under-strength) hosts and a generous 43/10 the fired-up Billy Boys.

  16. #16
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    Scotland 11/5 for the win on Sunday.

    A standout price with Stan James.
    I could be wrong, but I doubt anyone will go bigger.

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    I noticed Syria managed to get a draw against Australia mate, I didn't bother getting involved but keep your posts going St Anne's I for one being known to enjoy a wee gamble also enjoy reading your posts
    I thought Germany half time full time last night at 4/5 was a licence to print money and put them in a treble with under 2.5 goals in the Scotland England games for a decent wee bet

  18. #18
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    Arabs v. Orcs

    I'm doing this thread for info, not to give tips.
    However, I'm extremely surprised that Mark Walker in the Racing Post does not tip Linfield for this evening's TV game at Tannadice. (He tips Falkirk at 5/4 to see-off the Pars and recommends a speculative punt on Peterhead at 5/1 against Caley.) As it's a live match, he has to give the Terrors v. Terrorists encounter a full preview and he recommends "Both Teams To Score" at 14/19 with one of the online Bunco Booth operations.
    At the time the Racing Post went to press, Bet365's 17/4 was the best price about Linfield. MarathonBet's earlier standout had long gone. Bet365 have slashed Linfield to 29/10, which looks the right price and is more or less what everyone else calls (14/5 Stan, 11/4 Fred, 3/1 Billy).
    However, Paddy Power still go 4/1. You'd think Linfield were unpopular in the Republic of Ireland or something. That's simply a plainly wrong price. McKinnon has already said he'll give the kids a run out. Linfield are minus their best player, as Roy Carroll's in Olso and having a goalie who's still genuinely SPL class would certainly help the Billy Boys, but they will otherwise be close to full strength.
    It's obviously a long way from being a sure thing, but 4/1 the Orcs in a great bet.

  19. #19
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    A wee change in the odds!

    Team news sees the Arabs 7/5 and Linfield 9/5... & Linfield have rested a couple of players, so that may be an over-reaction.
    I don't bet normally bet on soccer these days, but it's incredible that those who do pay no heed to competitions like this.

  20. #20
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    Showtime.
    Slovenia v. Scotland.
    If offered a P9 W5 D2 L2 record fourteen months ago, I’d imagine a small majority might have taken it. Needing a win in the last game for second place is about what you’d expect with that record. Of the teams with 17pts, only Ukraine are outside the top two – and that’s only on GD, with a guaranteed play-off slot if they beat Croatia at home in the last game. Results-wise, it’s not been a bad campaign for Scotland overall.
    That initial Thursday night 11/5 about Scotland did not last long. I didn’t see it matched. There was some 21/10 and a fair bit of 2/1, but all that was soon taken and 9/5 was the best available by Friday lunchtime. Only Betway go as big as 7/4 now. Betway also have Slovenia at 7/4. Scotland are favourites with every other bookie. You can get 19/10 Slovenia with several of the Bunco Booths.
    Those prices look wrong. Surging Scotland, at #43, are now 12 places above Slovenia in the F.I.F.A. rankings, but the slumping Slovenes were ahead of Scotland in the August ranking list. I don’t see how Scotland should be favourites out there. It’ll be another ugly arm-wrestle and maybe there’ll be another red card – and the good news is it won’t be for Scott Brown (or Ryan Jack!) – but I can’t fancy Scotland at the price. The odds are down to patriotic Scottish money and the belief that Slovenia, who have nothing to play for unless Slovakia lose at home to Malta, will lay down.
    That in itself is quite amusing. European football, in the minds of fans all over the continent, has a hierarchy of perceived lethargy when it comes to national teams playing in what for them are “meaningless” fixtures. If Scotland were up against a Nordic or Celtic team that had nothing to play for and was of similar ability to Slovenia, Scotland would be a longer price. It would be thought that the northern opposition was too proud (in northern terms) or too stupid (in southern terms) to lay down... unlike those mentally fragile Slavs.
    Conversely, if Scotland were up against a Mediterranean team that had nothing to play for and was of similar ability to Slovenia, Scotland would be an even shorter price than they are for the Ljubliana trip. Slavs might be psychologically suspect, but they are seen as more robust that the siesta-loving shirkers from further south. Disgraceful and probably not something that can be mentioned in polite conversation, but sadly true.
    As an example, Northern Ireland – ranked #20 and comfortably a better team than Scotland on any analysis of the past two years’ results you care to make – are 9/4 to win in Norway, against a team ranked 18 places below Slovenia.
    And, “Yes”, as you asked, Norn Iron do have plenty to play for... if we assume three "gimmes" come home. Assuming France (ranked #8) see off Belarus in Paris to win Group A, assuming Poland (ranked #6) do not shag-up Group E by losing to Montenegro in Warsaw, and assuming Iceland (ranked #22) beat Kosovo in Reykjavik to seal Group I, the teams currently scheduled to be in the seeded bag for the play-off draw are the loser in the Portugal (#3) v. Switzerland (#7) Group B decider, Wales (ranked #13), Italy (ranked #17) and Croatia (ranked #18). However, a Baleless Wales could easily be edged out by a Stokesless Ireland (ranked #34) in the Group D showdown (Serbia could screw up at home to the cussed Georgians and hand Wales the group, but the Serbs are ranked #32 and cannot be seeded) and Croatia lead Ukraine (ranked #24) only on GD as they venture to Kiev for a decider. Norn Iron (ranked #20) may well be seeded as things stand. However, U.E.F.A. are being their sneaky selves and the play-off draw will not be made until October 17th... so it will be based on the new F.I.F.A. rankings that are published on the 16th. I’m not doing the necessary mathematics, but should Norn Iron slip-up in Oslo, play-off contenders Sweden (ranked #23), Ukraine (#24) or even Denmark (#26) might conceivably sneak past them into the seeded bag and leave the Ulstermen looking at a trip to the Estadio da Luz or the Stadio Olimpico.
    Obviously the probable make-up of that seeded bag improves Scotland’s chances of making Russia significantly from the likely seeds of a month ago. A two-legged tie against Wales or Norn Iron would be winnable. I’d imagine weight of Scottish money could see Scotland at 6/5 or 11/10 to qualify if Belfast was on the agenda and maybe 6/4 if Cardiff was the play-off destination.
    Those fancying Scotland to qualify should bear this in mind, as should bookmakers offering “To Qualify” prices... but, not surprisingly, not one gutless swine has a “To Qualify” price available.
    Tell kids today that we used to have bookmakers in this country and, do you know, they’ll not believe you?

  21. #21
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    Post Wee Cup Update.

    The League Cup.
    The Samaritans have been busy in the last 36 hours in a Lanarkshire steel town. Ravenscraig going was bad enough, but ‘Well jeopardising their top six chances by idiotically progressing to the final of a meaningless cup is sending folk over the edge. Remind me, which team did the ref’s brother play about five seasons with, prior to last season’s brief stint for us?
    You can get 8/1 with our sponsors and Bet365 about ‘ra ‘Well lifting the League Cup. That price is a mite insulting, considering we were quoted at 4/1 to progress from the semi, but I won’t be taking it. BetFred generously price Celtic at 1/8, which is a legitimate money-buying opportunity.
    There was a bit of 33/1 Motherwell in the summer. There was some generous 13/8 Celtic in pre-season. I think the Racing Post tipped them at that price. I suppose I got a run for my £20 on Hibs at 25/1.

    The League.
    The "other" site depressingly shows a large number of Hibbys would gleefully accept three successive relegations and League Two football by 2020, just so long as the Gunts accompanied us down each May and we took twelve points a season off the puddle-drinkers... And most of their regular posters have the neck to get precious and contribute to an eight-page thread when a parochial Orc or Plastic Paddy dares sings a song they find “offensive” while they’re watching TV.
    Anyhow, after a valiant home loss to the Sheep, Hibs have now won two games from nine since the victory on the “Glorious Twelfth”- that’s the start of the grouse-shooting season in August, not the height of the Taig-shooting season a month earlier.
    One of those, lest we forget, was a struggle against Ferranti Thistle.
    We are playing well, though. That’s what counts.

    We’re playing ‘Well on Saturday. Before that, it’s the Gunts tomorrow night.
    I fancy us to win this and so do most punters. The price has been contracting all day. The 11/10 available at lunchtime has gone and only Billy’s of the High Street firms now go 21/20. A home win is generally evens. Our sponsors call a standout 63/20 the Gunts. It’s a best of 13/5 the draw with Bet365.

    It’s still neck & neck twixt the Celts and the Sheep in the table. Each has 23pts from 9 games. Paddy’s call of 1/50 Celtic retaining the flag is the most optimistic any bookie is about the Sheep’s chances of matching strides with the champeens all the way to May. The Sheep are generally 20/1, though on-line mavericks Black Type go 22/1.
    For Wednesday’s game at Pittodrie, Celtic are as short as 1/2, but Black Type go 3/5. It’s 6/1 the home win with Bet365 and the draw is 33/10 with Marathonbet. A Sheep win will see their title odds contract to no lower than 16/1.
    The Rangers are 6pts adrift and are available at 45/1 for the title with Mr.Power. Hibs are 750/1 with Mr.Chandler. It’s 1,000/1 bar four.

    In the “Without Celtic” market, Aberdeen are an almost universal 5/6, with the Huns at 11/8. Hibs are 16/1, the Gunts 25/1 and Motherwell are 40/1 with Victor.

    At the bottom, Partick and Killie each got off the mark last time out: Killie winning at Partick nine days ago; the Jags beating Dundee on Saturday. The pair each have 6pts, Accies have 7pts, Dundee 8pts and Ross 10pts. Hibs are now in the bottom half, on 13pts, though we have a game in hand on some of the dross below us and the detritus two points & two places above us - a position the detritus will not occupy 24 hours from now. Our sponsors are best about Partick for the Wooden Spoon at 5/2; it’s 3/1 Killie with SkyBet; a tempting 7/2 Hamilton with Stan James, who are also best about Dundee at 7/1; 17/2 Ross with Paddy. Plummeting Sainties, who have 14pts, are 66/1.

    Top Goalscorer.
    Morelos still leads the Top Goalscorer charts with six. Moult, O’Halloran, McGregor and Dorrans have five apiece. Rooney, Lafferty and Stokes are on four.
    Sparky, on three, is still favourite, at a best of 4/1 with Bet365. Sinclair, also on three, is 11/2. Morelos is 8/1 with Victor. It’s 12/1 Rooney with Bet365. Pena, on three, is 14/1 with those who quote him, but most bookies don’t. Current supersub Dembele is as short as 7/1, but is 16/1 with Victor. Huns penalty-taker Dorrans is also a general 16/1. Man of the moment Moult and Edouard are each 20/1, Stokesey, McGregor, May, Goncalves and O’Halloran are 25/1. Oddly, Lafferty is 40/1 with Betfair’s fixed-odds arm, but no bigger than 16/1 anywhere else.

    SFA Cup.
    Less than a month before the draw to determine who Hibs get first up in the attempt to regain our cup. The winner of Spartans v. Fraserburgh at home would be good. The “spoonburner” line for a Hibs v. Fraserburgh game would be amusing.
    Celtic remain 6/5. The Huns have drifted to 7/1 with Bet365, Aberdeen are 15/2, Hibs & the Gunts each 20/1, Sainties & ‘Well both on 30/1, 40/1 bar.

    Division Two.
    Ten games in and St.Mirren have 22pts and a two-point lead over Dunfermline on 20pts. Livi have 18pts, Dundee United have 17pts, then come Morton and Q.o.S. on 15pts.
    Having sewn-up the title with a spectacularly impressive leap over the tricky East End Park obstacle, at least according to some reports, the Arab stallion made a hames of the meadow bank and unseated rider at the thistle patch.
    John Prescot should have been in charge for those matches.
    He knows how to deal with two Jags.
    After those two defeats, Yogi is seemingly set to be named as Ray McKinnon’s replacement later this week, though he was still 2/1, compared to McIntyre’s 11/10, when the prices disappeared this evening.
    In spite of the two reverses that cost McKinnon his job, the Terrors are still just about shading favouritism, though most bookies have St.Mirren as market leaders. There is a lot of 2/1 online and Black Type call 11/5. The Buddies are generally 7/4 and are as short as 6/4 with Victor, but Stan James offer 9/4. It’s then 5/1 Dunfermline. Livi vary from the 7/1 offered by Betway & Bet365 out to 16/1 with SkyBet and Black Type. The Doonhamers are also 16/1, with Morton a standout 33/1 with Victor.

    Division Three.
    Raith were rained off at half-time when it was 1-1 at Stranraer on Saturday, while Ayr blasted five past Forfar to cut Rovers’ lead to just two points. Arbroath hammered Airdrie for seven and are a further three points adrift. Victor still has the Kirkcaldy boys at 1/3, but they are “only” 8/15 with Bet365 and you can get 5/9 if you have an account with 10Bet. Ayr are a best 23/10 with Paddy and Arbroath are 25/1 with Victor. It’s 100/1 bar three with the firms that are betting “win only” but the firms that still offer each-way terms have the next four in the market at between 25/1 and 33/1. What a swizz!

    Division Four.
    Nine games in down here after some SFA Cup action and Stirling lead on 22pts. Montrose have 17pts, inconsistent ante-post jollies Peterhead have 16pts, Stenny 15pts, Elgin 14pts, Annan 13pts and Berwick 12pts. Peterhead remain faves at a best of 11/8 with Marathonbet (Victor calls 8/11), with Stirling generally 9/4 but with 11/4 offered by an online Bunco Booth. Said Bunco Booth goes 3/1 Stenny, when 7/1 is available with Black Type, who go 20/1 Montrose when 12/1 is the best elsewhere.
    Edinburgh City now 5/6 for the Wooden Spoon, 13/8 Cowdenbeath, 8/1 Berwick.

    Challenge Cup.
    Now at the QF stage. Arabs v Crusaders, who, in spite of the name, do not exemplify religious fanaticism to the same extent as the team seen-off at Tannadice in the last round. T.N.S. v Q.o.S; Caley v Falkirk; Raith v Dumbarton.
    7/2 Arabs, 6/1 Falkirk, Inverness and T.N.S. Then it’s 8/1 Crusaders, 10/1 the Doonhamers, 11/1 Raith and 20/1 Dumbarton. The Welsh champs are 3/1 with Victor, but no shorter than 5/1 elsewhere.

    Next Scotland Gaffer.
    2/1 Moyes with Unibet, as short as evens with SkyBet; 5/2 Malky with Coral; 6/1 Michael O’Neill with Unibet, but he’s not quoted in most lists. 10/1 Lambert & Allardyce; 14/1 Big Eck; 18/1 McInnes; 25/1 Cesare Prandelli, Clarke, Stark, Levein and Gemmill jnr. 33/1 shots include Tommy Wright, Alan Stubbs and Neil Lennon.

  22. #22
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    Stokesy Out?

    Reportedly not going to recover from Saturday's ankle knock.
    The 11/10 Hibs is back up again.
    Only Stan James go as big as 3/1 the Gunts.

  23. #23
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    Pedro Punted.

    Bookies almost certainly make bigger percentage profits on their "Next Manager" books than any other football market they offer.
    There was one English club job three or four seasons back for which eleven candidates traded at stupid odds on Betfair. I think the trigger price in that Racing Post story was 2/1 or less.
    The number of jobs for which Alan Curbishley traded at similar odds was something like eighteen.
    Still, money can be made, as there can be glaring errors.
    An acquaintance got a standout 33/1 - with Ladbrokes, if you please - about Terry Venables getting the Leeds job around 15 years ago.
    At about the same time, I managed to get a more widely available 33/1 for Brian Kerr - not he of the unerring passes to red shirts against Elfsborg in the Inter-Toto Cup; the other one - getting the Irish manager's job. Highly-regarded coach, already in charge of the youth set-up and under contract to the FAI. It was only likely to take one strong opinion on the FAI board the get him the gig. Andy Roxburgh was a similar story at big odds when he got the Scotland job.
    Of course, it would help a wee bit if the Huns had a) any highly-regarded coaches in their set-up and b) anyone on their board with a strong opinion on anything except Kaffliks. Sadly, neither appears likely.
    However, bookies do not have a scooby what the hell is likely to transpire in Govan.
    SkyBet were seemingly first up, with a Hun acquaintance messaging me with a list of prices to ask my (much valued) opinion almost as soon as the news broke. Graeme Murty was 5/2 favourite, which tells you what SkyBet thinks of the state of the Huns' bank account. Uncle Rupert should know something about that, surely.
    The odds are still all over the shop.
    Derek McInnes is 3/1 with Paddy Power, but evens with Victor and 6/5 or 6/4 with several others. Likely to be optimistic Hun money accounting for that price. I can't see him taking the job, as his stock is fairly high and he'll be on a hiding to almost nothing. At this stage, I doubt he'd believe any implausible financial guarantees from the Ibrox board.
    Eck was 6/1 in that initial SkyBet list. He's now a best 9/2 with Ladbrokes/Corals. Victor fancies him as well, calling just 5/2.That 6/1 looked value to me. Not much to lose in what might be his last managerial job and obviously knows the score.
    Billy Davies 6/1 with Paddy and consistently priced.
    Graeme Murty now out to 7/1 with Victor. I think that's a good price. He has exactly the attributes the average fan of The Rangers traditionally looks for in a manager. Hill's go just 7/2.
    Frank de Boer 12/1 with the bookies but 18/1 on the Betfair Exchange for peanuts - not that bookies ever let anyone have more than peanuts on a "Next Manager" book.
    Alan Irvine at 14/1 and Michel Preudhomme at 16/1 are not quoted in many places.
    Moyes is 20/1 and quite consistently priced. The two bookies who quote him have $#@! Advocaat at 20/1.
    Paddy cheekily puts DiMatteo in at 25/1. Unsurprisingly nobody else quotes the former Champions League winning manager.
    Flakey wee nyaff Baz is 25/1 with Victor, but in the teens everywhere else.
    Kenny is a 4/1 chance with Billy's! I doubt they know anything that's led to them coming up with that price. He is 25/1 with Paddy and there are a lot of varied prices offered in between those extremes.
    Tommy Wright is 25/1 with SkyBet, but Hills are scared of him as well, calling just 9/1.
    Elvis is 25/1 with Victor but 14s with the other layers who quote him. Surely even the Huns' board wouldn't be that daft.
    Michael Laudrup, Alex Neil and Big Sam are 25/1 shots with possible interest.
    Just about everyone else is 25/1 as well, which shows they bookies are non-plussed. Cathro, Durrant, Duff Jimmy, Gary MacAllister, Sbragia, Malky, Giggs, Shota Arveladze, fat conman Steve Evans, Paul Lambert - they're all in the 25/1 bracket.
    Fans' choice Ronald Koeman is 66/1 with Paddy, but couple of brazen layers call 20/1 in the hope some optimistic Hun inbreds wander into one of their high street emporia.
    Gazza and Keano are quoted at 100/1.
    Can't see past Murty or Eck myself.

  24. #24
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    McInnes bad value at odds as short as 4/11.

    That's with Billy and Paddy.
    Victor was shortest at evens yesterday. He now goes best price at 4/6. Innes is 1.7 for half-decent money on Betfair, but there's £14 there at 2.
    I'm not flagging this up because I'm particularly interested in the Huns. I'm interested in "Next Manager" markets that are based on hunches and stereotypical assumptions. This is a highly exaggerated example of such a market.
    All "Next Manager" markets quite obviously take a massively disproportionate amount of money from fans of the club or nation concerned. This will often skew the prices in the objective outsider's favour. Of the remotely plausible candidates, McInnes is by far the most attractive to the aaaaverage Bear. So they'll have been on at yesterday's 3/1 in considerable numbers.
    McInnes is a Hun, so he was always going to listen to what the board or its appointed telesales representative has to say. I'd be surprised if things didn't go as far as a face-to-face meeting. In days before every beggar had a smartphone, the carpark at Kinross Services could be busy at times like this.
    I still think he'd be mad to take it - and I don't believe he's mad - but you never know. Perhaps he has a Union Jack duvet cover and sleeps in Rangers pyjamas. I once spoke to the ex-Palace & Spurs winger Peter Taylor, just after he'd been caretaker boss of Ing-Ger-Lund for one game. I didn't ask him about Ing-Ger-Lund, but he mentioned it and said that even as a kid his ambition had been to manage Ing-Ger-Lund, rather than play for them. There are some feckin' weirdos about!
    Eck is out to 7/1 with Paddy, who've shunted Billy Davies out to 20/1, though he remains 9/2 jt-2nd-fav with Ladbrokes/Corals.
    The plunge has been for Walter Smith, who was with the 25/1 comedy quotes yesterday but is now a best of 10/1 with Billy and Paddy and as short as 4/1 with Victor - which explains why Victor is longest about McInnes. There's only a tenner up at 5.5 on Betfair.
    Murty is as big as 12/1 with Victor.
    Kenny has walked to 25/1 and De Boer to 33/1, both with Paddy.
    One poster on the Daily Record site bigged-up Billy Reid. That is a very, very shrewd left-field shout indeed, but the ex-Accies gaffer, now assistant at fairytale Swedes Ostersund is not quoted by anyone.
    Mind you, I doubt more than a quarter of professional odds compilers had even heard of Pedro Caixinha 36 hours after Fanny Hat walked, never mind quoted a price on him.

  25. #25
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    6pts last week and I think most fans would've settled for 19pts from the opening series of 11 games. In golf terms, we have the equivalent of a couple of shortish & eminently birdieable par-5s coming up. Runs of Premier Division fixtures don't come much easier than trips to Killie, Accies & Partick, with home matches against rock-bottom Dundee and plummeting Sainties, who've tallied 1pt & 0 goals in their last five games, sandwiched in between. Some bunch of beggars should scrap their way to a draw and there's a chance someone might nick a 1-0 win but, provided there's no repeat of the Accies debacle in August, 10pts is a par score from these matches and the team should get at least that, if "top three" ambitions are realistic.

    League.
    Hibs now 14/1 with Vic & Paddy in the "Without Celtic" market. Paddy offers a best 4/5 the Sheep. The Rangers are generally 11/8, with 'Well widely available at 25/1 and the Gunts 50/1 with Bet365. The puddle-drinkers do have seven successive home games coming up, so backing them to lay later in spread markets may not be entirely unwise.
    After their Sheep-raping raid last week, Celtic were held by Stevie Clarke's Killie, so their lead over the Sheep is back down to just one point at 27pts plays 26pts. The Rangers have 21pts, 'Well & Hibs each have 19pts, then there's a 4-point gap to St.Johnstone & the Gunts.
    Celtic are 1/33 for the flag, Aberdeen are 25/1, the Huns 33/1 and Hibs 250/1. It's 1,000/1 bar.
    At the bottom, Dundee & Killie each have 8pts, Partick are on 10pts, while Accies & Ross are on 11pts.
    Killie are marginal favourites at 3/1 for the Wooden Spoon, Accies are 7/2, Partick 5/1, Dundee an eyebrow-raising 7/1 with Stan James and Ross 17/2. The Dark Blues are no bigger than 7/2 elsewhere and the Stan James quote makes this an enticing 85% book at the moment - unless someone currently outside the bottom five swoops to claim 12th place next May.

    Top Goalscorer.
    7/2 Sparky, 7/1 Sinclair, 10/1 Morelos with Victor (only 7s elsewhere), 10/1 Dembele, 14/1 Rooney, 14/1 Lafferty, 20/1 Moult, 25/1 Stokes (Bet365 dangle that & they go a quarter the odds e/w for three places). Anyone who got the 100/1 Kenny Miller when he was turning-out for the stiffs at Brentford can feel pleased with themselves, as he's in to 33/1. Simon Murray is 50/1 with Bet365.

    Division Two.
    Tight here. St.Mirren won't be too disheartened by a Renfrewshire Derby draw and they lead on 23pts. Livi are 2nd on 21pts, then come the Arabs and Pars on 20pts after the Fife side's loss to Caley Thistle. QoS have 18pts and 'ra Ton have 16pts.
    The managerless Arabs are 11/5 with Black Type, though just 5/4 with Stan and generally 13/8 or 7/4. The Buddies are a standout 9/4 with Stan. It's 5/1 Dunfermline with Fred, a generous 16/1 Livi with Black Type (generally 7/1, but Stan goes 12s) and a general 16/1 the Doonhamers.

    Division Three.
    Raith were held at Forfar and have been joined on 23pts by Ayr, though Rovers have a game in hand. East Fife have moved up to 3rd in this two-horse race, on 18pts.
    Raith still 2/5 with Victor, but you can get 8/11 with Betway & Bet365. Ayr are a best 11/5 with Black Type and 2/1 with Stan James. It's 40/1 Arbroath and 100/1 bar three. Clearly there is money to be made when the odds in a two-horse race are 8/11 and 11/5.

    Division Four.
    Stirling lost to Stenny on Saturday but still lead on 22pts. Montrose have 20pts, Peterhead 19pts, Stenny 18pts and Elgin17pts.
    Peterhead are favourites at 5/4, though both Victor & Stan go 4/6. Victor is best at 3/1 about the Binos, Black Type go 7/1 Stenny (4/1 is the next best offer) and also go well over the top with 20/1 about Montrose, who are 13/2 with our sponsors and 7/1 with Ladbrokes & Bet365.

    League Cup.
    Still 1/8 Celtic with Fred; 8/1 'Well with MarathonBet & Bet365.

    FA Cup.
    No changes. Hibs still a best 20/1 with Stan, Bet365 and Unibet.
    Draw just 3 weeks away.

    Challenge Cup.
    No changes.

    Hibs a best 4/5 for Rugby Park tomorrow. Killie have held both Bigot Brothers in Glasgow in the past five days, but they must've put in an effort to do that. The price looks right to me.

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    Perils of "Next Manager" Markets Illustrated.

    McIntyre was 4/5 and Yogi was 2/1 when the Dundee United market opened last week
    Yogi went 1/2 after he appeared for an interview.
    Csaba Laszlo wasn't even quoted. The Dundee media suddenly got a whiff of the ex-Gunt yesterday. It's now 1/4 Laszlo, 3/1 Yogi, 8/1 McIntyre.

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    Glut of New Accounts Opened.

    All to back Yogi for the Tannadice job and all bookies have now closed the market.

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    Ex jambo boss getting it i heard.
    Laszlo

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    Quote Originally Posted by St.Anne's View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    All to back Yogi for the Tannadice job and all bookies have now closed the market.
    I see paddy has us at 14/1 without Celtic, is that best price? I consider that value in what looks a 3 runner event

  30. #30
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    Several bookies yet to go back up on the "Without Celtic" market. Vic & Paddy both up and have cut Hibs to 10/1. Ladbrokes go only 7/1.
    The Scum has just gone online with a "Rangers to miss out on McInnes" headline, reckoning McLaren has been sounded-out by the Huns over the weekend, as the Sheep are playing hardball over compo. Interestingly, McInnes is back in to 8/11 now, having gone out to 5/4 yesterday - the first time he'd been odds against for 9 days. McLaren is 6/1 in places but you can still get 10/1.
    Laughably, Tommy Wright is now 7/4 favourite for the Arab hotseat, with Yogi and Laszlo both 2/1. McIntyre seemingly never applied, even though some bookies has him at 1/2 when the news of McKinnon's sacking broke two weeks ago today. Yogi has been backed at 1/2 and Laszlo was 1/4. Bookies will be stung by an insider or six on all Next Manager markets, but they're still a goldmine.
    I'll likely do a full update tomorrow.

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    Update...

    First thing to say: the line between Stan James and the Oddschecker site is definitely down. The Oddschecker prices shown for Stan are out of date. By some days at that. This is most notable with the 7/1 showing for Dundee in the Wooden Spoon market. Stan James were presumably filled-in on that price, as they left it up a fair while, but there are currently no Wooden Spoon prices on their site. The best you'll get about Dundee is 9/4 with Bet365 and they are now favourites everywhere. Black Type's prices on Oddschecker look no less out of line than Stan's, but they are the genuine Black Type odds.

    Second thing to say: GET ON HIBS NOW FOR THE CUP! The draw is after the St.Johnstone game and the price is coming in. Only Bet365 and Stan James (& their Unibet subsidiary) go 20/1 now. Ladbrokes are 12/1. The 20/1 is unlikely to be there in 10 days from now. Do not blame me when it goes out to 66/1 after being drawn at Darkheid first up.

    PREMIER
    Sheep held by Accies, so Celtic on 30pts are now three clear of Aberdeen on 27pts. Hibs have played 13 games compared to 23 for the other members of the leading quintet and are on 25pts. The Huns have 24pts, 'Well have 19pts. Then it's the Gunts & slumping Sainties on 15pts, Ross on 14pts, Accies 12pts, Partick 10pts and Killie & Dundee on 8pts.
    Celtic are a best 1/50 to retain the flag. Aberdeen are 33/1, The Rangers 35/1 with our sponsors Marathonbet, the mighty Hibees 200/1 with Paddy (only 80/1 with Hill's) and it's 1000/1 bar 4.
    "Without Celtic" has seen Fred boldly push the Sheep out to a standout evens. The Rangers are a general 5/4. Hibs are a best 10/1 with Paddy and Victor, but only 6/1 with Fred. It's 50/1 bar the 3.
    Top Six odds see 'Well at 4/7, the Gunts at 4/6 with Bet365, Sainties at 15/8 and Ross at 9/2.
    Bottom six has Ross at 4/11, Sainties at 2/5, 'Well at 11/8 and the Gunts at 13/8 with Sky - so a minor arb on the puddle-drinkers.
    Wooden Spoon. As stated, 9/4 with Bet365 is the best offer about Dundee. Bet365 also go best about Killie at 7/2. Sky are best about Accies at 9/2. Partick are 9/2 with Betway. You can get 14/1 resurgent Ross.

    TOP GOAL SCORER
    It's bloody ridiculous that bookies are not bigging this market up. If Liam Boyce can win it at Ross, most clubs will have a striker worth a punt in a season when it looks as if 20 could be enough to take the title. Still, I suppose mugs shovelling notes into machines is an easier way for the blighters to make money.
    Morelos doesn't seem to have scored since the last Pope was in office, but he still leads the charts on 6, though he has been joined by Moult. On 5 we have Dorrans, Lafferty, McGregor C, O'Halloran and young Simon Murray. On 4 it's Stokesy, Squirrel, Sparky, Dembele, Goncalves, Rooney, Sinclair and Leitch-Smith.
    It's 5/1 Sparky with Bet365, 5/1 Dembele with Betway, 6/1 Sinclair, 14/1 Morelos & Lafferty, 20/1 Moult & Rooney, 25/1 Dorrans, 33/1 Candeias, May, McGregor & Stokes. Simon Murray is a best 50/1 with Sky & Betway, though only 25/1 with Victor. Squirrel is 80/1 with Sky but as short as 33/1 with Bet365.

    MANAGERS
    Speaking of Papal elections... still no white smoke at Greyskull. It's been 11 days since Pedro IX was defrocked. Victor has again pushed McInnes back out to Saturday evening's 5/4. McClaren has been hammered all day - not in the Glesca sense, though he does have a scarlet schnoz - and is down to 6/5 joint-fav with Ladbrokes/Coral, though Sky still go 3/1. Nice Guy Murty is 5/1. 11/1 Pardew, 16/1 Irvine & Preud'homme, 18/1 Eck, 20/1 bar.
    The only firm betting on the Dundee United job is Victor - generally in his McBookie guise - and he has Wright at 4/5 now. Yogi and Laszlo are 3/1. The local rag led with a story that fat cheat Steve Evans will be interviewed and Victor put him in at 14/1 4th-fav, but tweeted that there had not been a single enquiry, much less a bet, about Evans until today.
    For the Scotland gig, it's 2/1 Malky, then 5/1 Moyes.... even though he is a best 1/10 for the West Ham job. The Norn Iron boss is 6/1, Big Sam 10/1, Lambert 12/1, Eck & McInnes on 14/1.

    CUPS
    As stated, Hibs are 20/1 with Bet365 and Stan for the Big Cup. It's still 6/5 Celtic, 7/1 The Rangers with Bet365, 15/2 the Sheep, 20/1 Hibs & the Gunts, 30/1 'Well & Sainties.
    League Cup, still 1/8 Celtic with Fred and 8/1 'Well with Marathonbet & Bet365.
    Not much changed in the Challenge Cup. 7/2 Arabs, 6/1 TNS, Caley, Falkirk, 7/1 Crusaders, 10/1 QoS, 12/1 Raith, 20/1 Dumbarton. Assuming the Arabs have a new man by Saturday, he'll likely have seen nothing of them this term and a match against opposition neither he nor his players know owt about would be a godsend for taking a look at hus 1st XI, so the Arabs at a shade of odds against v. Crusaders might be worth a punt.

    EUROPA LEAGUE
    As with the top scorer market, this is an area where an enterprising bookie should be raking-in mug fivers. Celtic are almost certain to be in this, so why not big-up a 40/1 or even 50/1 price? I'd have fancied their chances in a normal year at those odds, but this isn't a normal season. Serie A leaders Napoli, Dortmund (2nd in the Bundesliga) and Atletico (3rd in Spain) are almost as certain to be in the field as Celtic. I'd be a mite peeved if I'd taken the 8/1 Arsenal, who are now 7/1. The top 12 in the betting - Arsenal, Zenit, Kiev & 3 each from Italy, Spain & France - only take out 60% of the book. Everyone else is at least 80/1, so the layers reckon it's 6/4 at the very best that a Champions League drop-out wins the 2nd-tier trophy. Not one gutless swine has quoted a probable Champions League drop-out though.

    DIVISION 2
    Tight. St.Mirren have 23pts, Arabs 23pts, Livi 22pts, Pars 21pts, QoS 21pts, Morton 16pts, Caley 13pts, Dumbarton 13pts, Falkirk 9pts, Brechin 2pts.
    8/5 Dundee United with 10Bet, 6/4 in several better-known places. 11/4 St.Mirren with Black Type, 5/2 with Victor but generally 2/1. 5/1 Pars with Victor, almost everyone else is 9/2. 10/1 QoS generally, 12/1 Livi with Black Type (who go only 13/2 QoS! Weird!) but they are generally 7s, though Victor calls 10s.

    DIVISION 3
    The two-horse race looks just that now. Ayr have blasted 35 goals in 12 games and have overhauled Raith on g.d. with both having 26pts. Raith do have a game in hand. It's already a long way back to Alloa & East Fife on 18pts, then Arbroath & Stranraer on 17pts and Albion Rovers on 16pts.
    Victor still thinks Raith are a good thing and has them at 1/2. You can get 4/6 with Black Type and Bet365. Oddschecker says Stan James go 2/1 about Ayr, but that's b/s as tge real price is 11/8. There is plenty of 6/4 about though. It's 50/1 bar 2!
    Victor has a "Top Four" market. He goes 4/9 Arbroath, 11/10 Alloa, 11/10 Stranraer, 9/4 East Fife, 5/1 Albion Rovers.

    DIVISION 4
    Stirling 25pts, Montrose 23pts, Peterhead 22pts, Stenny 19pts, Elgin 17pts.
    Peterhead remain faves at 11/10, with Victor going 4/7. Stirling are 3/1 with Black Type and 11/4 with Betway but generally 2/1. Stenny are a massive standout at 6/1 with Black Type but are generally 7/2 or 4/1. Montrose are 14/1 with Black Type but generally 7/1, though a couple of better known firms go 10s. It's 40/1 bar 4.
    At the bottom, Edinburgh City (6pts) are 8/11 for the Wooden Spoon, with Cowdenbeath (5pts) at 13/8. Clyde (9pts) are 10/1.

  32. #32
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    Cup Udate...

    As with the last post, Stan James and Oddschecker seem to be at cross purposes. Either Stan James prices do not appear in the Oddschecker table or prices from the end of last month are shown. Very odd. The Oddschecker site is owned by Uncle Rupert. However, it's hard to see that a thrusting, vibrant, modern "bookmaker", who'd far rather fleece unsophisticated immigrants & innocent kids with fruit machines and rip-off online casinos than have the cojones to actually make a book, would have the brass neck to object to the Dirty Digger on moral grounds. Oddschecker doesn't appear to flag-up SkyBet on this new SunBets operation over any other firm.

    Our Cup.
    The Gunts away is a bad draw. I'm confident we'll win, but it's not what the Club wants at this stage. Weakest reamaining team, at home, at 3pm on Saturday, every round to the semi-final is what I want, whether I've backed Hibs or not.
    On Saturday morning, only Stan James was still going 20/1. Oddschecker says they still are, but it's really 16/1, which must mean some hefty wagers (by modern standards) went in with Stan at the weekend. Almost everyone else has pushed Hibs back out to 20/1, which is understandable. A draw giving the Bigot Brothers "gimmes" and the Sheep a home tie with St.Mirren, while sending us to Gorgie, has lessened our chances of regaining the trophy.
    Celtic are now 11/10, The Rangers are a standout 7/1 with 10Bet, the Sheep are generally the same price but a couple of online Bunco Booths go 15/2, the Gunts are with us on a general 20/1. It's then 30/1 Sainties, 33/1 Motherwell, 50/1 Dundee, Arabs, Accies, Partick and Killie, 66/1 Ross, 100/1 bar.

    Premier.
    Celtic 33pts, Aberdeen 27pts, Hibs 25pts, The Rangers 24pts, Motherwell 22pts, Sainties 18pts, Gunts 16pts, Accies 15pts, Ross 14pts, Killie 12pts, Partick 11pts, Dundee 9pts.
    A wee pile-up behind the leader at that last fence and SportingBet's generous 1/50 is better than anyone else offers about Celtic retaining the title. You can get 40/1 about the Sheep and the Huns in places. Paddy Power is a standout 200/1 about Hibs.
    In the "Without Celtic" market it's evens Aberdeen, which is a standout with Fred, 5/4 the Huns with Fred and Paddy, 9/1 Hibs with Victor (Fred goes only 6/1), 50/1 Motherwell.
    In the "Top Six" market, 'Well are a best 2/5 with 10Bet and 4/11 with Bet365. That looks skinny to me, assuming Moult disappears in January, and they're shorter than 4/11 with everyone else. The Gunts are 4/6 for a top half finish, Sainties are 6/4 with Victor.
    Only Sky have a "Bottom Six" market. 8/13 Sainties, 6/5 Gunts, 9/4 'Well.
    For the Wooden Spoon, it's 9/4 Dundee, a standout 7/2 the Jags with Fred, 7/2 Killie with Marathonbet, Bet365 and Victor, 5/1 Accies generally, a standout 12/1 Ross with Fred... & 40/1 the Gunts with Uncle Rupert.

    Top Scorer.
    A double for the Englishman as 'Well shocked the Sheep at Pittodrie and the allegedly Ibrox-bound Louis Moult has pulled clear of the pack on 8 goals. Morelos is on 6. A bunch on 5 now comprises McGregor, Dorrans, Sparky, O'Halloran, Lafferty, Goncalves, Stokesy and Simon Murray. On 4 it's Dembele, Sinclair, Bowman, Rooney, Leitch-Smith, MacLean and Squirrel.
    Sparky is a standout 4/1 with Paddy. Dembele is also 4/1 with Betway and Sky. Sinclair is 8/1. Victor calls a generous 12/1 Moult. It's 14/1 Morelos, 20/1 Lafferty and Rooney, 25/1 Goncalves. Stokes is a standout 33/1 with Victor, Murray is 33/1 with Sky and Bet365, Squirrel is 100/1 with Sky.

    Championship.
    The Arabs comfortably despatched Falkirk at the weekend, while everyone else was in Cup action, and they are now clear at the top on 26pts. The pack all have a game in hand. St.Mirren 23pts, Livi 22pts, Pars 21pts, QoS 21pts, Morton 16pts, Caley 13pts, Dumbarton 13pts, Falkirk 9pts, Brechin 2pts. There are a couple of games tonight.
    It's 11/8 the Arabs with Black Type, 13/10 with Paddy and shorter everywhere else. 11/4 St.Mirren with Victor, 5/1 Pars with almost everyone, a standout 12/1 Livi with Blacm Type (10/1 with Victor, a fair bit shorter generally), 12/1 QoS.
    I think I've done my dough by shrewdly backing Falkirk at 3/1 for a top-4 finish. They are now 8/1 in Victor's "Top-4" market. According to Oddschecker, 44% of recent bets on that market have been for the Bairns, with 22% for Caley at 7/2. Interestingly, Livi are evens for a play-off finish (or better) while Dunfermline and QoS are each 2/5.

    Division 1.
    Ayr pumped Raith 3-0 last Tuesday and moved to 29pts. The linoleum lads have 26 pts from a game fewer. Big gap back to goal-crazy Arbroath on 21pts.
    Black Type call 11/10 Raith; Betway call 11/10 Ayr. You can get 28/1 Arbroath. Having had Raith at 1/3 or 2/5 when everyone else was calling 4/7 or 8/13, Victor now goes 10/11.

    League 2.
    Stirling 26pts, Montrose 24pts, Peterhead 22pts, Stenny 22pts, Elgin 20pts.
    Peterhead remain faves at a general 11/8. Stirling are 11/4, Stenny a standout 4/1 with Black Type, who astoundingly still call 16/1 Montrose (I've just this second checked the Black Type site), even though nobody else is bigger than 7/1.
    At the bottom, Cowdenbeath bagged a home draw against fellow Cup flops Annan on Saturday and are just a point adrift of Edinburgh City, trailing 6pts to 7pts. Clyde have 10pts. Victor goes 10/11 City, evens Cowden, 16/1 Clyde in his Wooden Spoon book.

    League Cup.
    1/9 Celtic with Betfred, 8/1 Motherwell in a few places.
    In 90 minutes it's a best 7/25 Celtic with Marathonbet, 12/1 'Well with Ladbrokes and a general 11/2 the draw.

    Challenge Cup.
    The two foreigners thankfully kept apart in the draw. TNS 2/1 faves with Bet365 and 60%+ of bets have been on the English-based Taffs, according to Oddschecker. 9/4 Caley is a Betway standout, 11/4 Crusaders is a Victor standout and Victor's 6/1 is the best you'll get about Dumbarton.

    Managers.
    McInnes naffing off to Govan just now would look unprofessional beyond belief. Will he head to Ibrox after next week's Sheep v. Huns double-header? I still don't see it. McInnes is a former WBA player, yet he's 20/1 for the Hawthorns hotseat - which tells you how poor Scottish football is seen as being down south. McInnes is back in to 7/4 for Ibrox, having gone out to 3/1 a couple of days ago. Eck went odds-on across the board at the weekend but is now 2/1. Murty and Wright are next-in on 10/1, then it's DeBoer on 12/1 and it's 20/1 bar five. This includes Pulis, who is exactly what the Huns need. Again, the price shows Scottish football's place in the UK hierarchy, never mind the European one.
    Michael O'Neill is the other 20/1 shot for Ibrox and he's 8/13 for the Scotland job, having been a best of 1/3 at the end of last week. Lambert is 5/1, Eck is 14/1, McInnes 20/1 and Malky is out to 25/1.

  33. #33
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    Without Celtic Market

    Just to note that BetFred and BoyleSports still go 4/5 the Sheep ahead of the double header against the Huns. That might look a very generous price on Sunday evening. Six points from the two games looks a realistic possibility for the Sheep and they'll be 1/3 if they get them. The Rangers are 6/4 for the silver with Paddy Power. We are a best 7/1 with Fred. Three Hun acquaintances are going up from London for Wednesday's game. I almost feel sympathy for them. Almost.

  34. #34
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    Huns v. Sheep / Sheep v. Huns

    In football these days, mathematical software more or less sets the odds for matches between teams with anything like comparable form lines.
    The skill involved in forming a book on league games is more or less a lost art.
    However, one maxim still applies. The most successful bookies are not those who most accurately calculate the probability of various eventualities occurring, but those who correctly predict which illogical possibilities are most likely to attract large numbers of mug punters.
    Every Hun I know, every Hun forum and every YouTuber or blogger of Hunnish hue seems to have accepted that The Rangers are a basketcase, at least in the short term. They have all given up.
    So the question of how & why bookies are pricing-up the double header as if The Rangers are a superior team to the Sheep, to the tune of 10 points over a season, is a good one. There are no formlines at all on which The Rangers could currently be viewed as a better team than Aberdeen, yet every bookie has them between 10/11 and evens for tonight's Govan encounter and - extraordinarily - most bookies have the Huns slight favourites for the Pittodrie rematch on Sunday. The Sheep are widely available at 11/4 tonight. That's a cracking bet. They've not lost away since February. The 7/4 about the Sheep on Sunday, with the Huns at 6/4 or 13/8, is downright ludicrous. Those prices are simply wrong. There must be more stupid punters around than even I believed there to be.

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    Pre "Week of Death" Update...

    They have "Groups of Death" in the World Cup, but maybe not in the forthcoming one, unless you're Argentina.
    I'm confident this will not be a "Week of Death" for Hibs, but it's an eyebrow-raising fixture list. If either of the Bigot Brothers had a similar schedule, statements and petitions would be numerous. Playing the top three inside a week is bad enough, but the moving of the Celtic match to Sunday and the Sheep switch to Saturday morning means all three games in less than 144 hours - that's six days for those GCSE or whatever in maths post-dates old-style "Higher Grade" & "O-levels" & stuff. I'm amazed The Other Forum hasn't got a petition going.

    Premier.
    Celtic 37pts, The Rangers 30pts, Sheep 30pts, Hibs 29pts, Motherwell 23pts, Gunts 18pts, Accies 17pts, Dundee 15pts, Killie 15pts, Ross 15pts, Partick 11pts.
    Celtic now 1/100. Even if Michael Stone gets out, I reckon they're safe... from being overtaken, but possibly not safe from Michael Stone. The Rangers are 40/1, Aberdeen are 66/1, Hibs are a standout 250/1 with Paddy and it's 1,000/1 bar four.

    Without Celtic.
    The Ibrox 3-0 had no impact on this market, with Aberdeen remaining 4/5 and Rangers 11/10. However, the Sheep's second capitulation, at Pittodrie, has seen The Rangers go odds-on everywhere. 4/5 with Boyle, Stan & Bet365 is the best you'll get, most bookies go 8/11 and the odd one goes even shorter. The Sheep are a standout 13/8 with Paddy Power. The 13/2 offered by Hill's is clear best about Hibs. It's 100/1 bar.

    Wooden Spoon.
    A bad couple of weeks for the Jags, with Accies continuing an infeasible run, Dundee pirating Accies' Hunslaying act and winning in Dingwall, and Killie back on song for Stevie Clarke with a win in Perth.
    Partick are a best price of 2/1 with Stan for the automatic relegation slot. Killie are generally 4/1, Dundee are now 5/1 with Stan, Ross 11/2 with Betway and Accies 6/1 with Bet365 and the 888 Bunco Booth. The Gunts are 40/1.

    Top 6 / Bottom 6.
    The top-six market assumes the front for are already heading for the scales & the formality of weighing-in.
    Motherwell are 4/9 with Victor to be facing the Bigot Brothers in May, the Gunts are 10/11 for a top-half finish, Sainties are 13/8, the flying Accies a standout 7/1 with Victor.
    Skybet's bottom-six odds see Accies at 1/9, Sainties at 1/2, the Gunts at 5/6 and 'Well at 11/4.

    Top goalscorer.
    Moult still two clear on 8, Morelos appears to have declared his innings closed on 6, Simon Murray has joined him in second place, then there's a huge pack on 5: O'Halloran, Dorrans, Windass, McGregor, Sparky, Forrest, Sinclair, MacLean, Lafferty, Goncalves & Stokesy.
    With Dembele now seeingly first choice at Darkheid, he's generally favourite, but you can still get 4/1 with Sky. The 4/1 about Sparky is more widely available. It's then 8/1 Sinclair with Victor, 12/1 Moult with Vic & Bet365, 16/1 Morelos, 20/1 Rooney, MacLean & the surging Windass, 25/1 Dorrans, Edouard, Lafferty & Goncalves.
    Stokesy is 33/1 with Vic & Sky, Simon Murray is 33/1 with Sky and Squirrel is 50/1 with the same outpost of Uncle Rupert's Global Empire.

    Championship.
    Dundee United 30pts, St.Mirren 29pts, Livingston 25pts, Dunfermline 23pts, Morton 23pts, Queen of the South 23pts, Dumbarton 18pts, Caley Thistle 17pts, Falkirk 9pts, Brechin 3pts.
    11/10 is generally best about the Arabs, who sneaked back to the summit when St.Mirren lost at home to Dumbarton, but Sunbets go 7/5. I have no idea what relation to SmyBet this new red-top mob are & I have no intention of checking. St.Mirren are a best 9/4 with Stan. It's then 8/1 Livi, 12/1 the Pars and 20/1 the Doonhamers.
    Victor's top scorer market has Dobbie at 5/2, Scott McDonald at 4/1, Reilly & Clark at 6/1, Cardle 10/1, Andy Ryan 12/1, Cameron Smith 14/1 (after a week where he lifted the Rugby League World Cup and won the Australian PGA golf) and Keatings on 16/1.
    Vic's top-four book: 8/13 Livi, 8/11 QoS, 4/5 Pars, 7/5 Morton, 9/4 ICT, 16/1 Falkirk

    League 1.
    Ayr 35pts, Raith 32pts with a game in hand, then a long way back to Arbroath on 23pts.
    Victor, having had Raith at comically long odds-on prices for months is now the only bookie going evens the Kirkcaldy outfit. Bet365 and Sky go evens Ayr. It's 40/1 bar those two.

    League 2.
    Peterhead are rather like a classy boxer with a suspect jaw or a steeplechaser with a great engine that has a habit of missing the odd fence. The Blue Toon finally struck the front with a win at Stirling last night. This was another match with seemingly wrong prices but which the bookies got right. Stirling were in front of Peterhead in the table, yet were 3/1 for the original postponed game 11 days ago. When the midweek coupons came out, the Binos were 12/5, but had walked to 7/2 by kick-off. The only goal came before the Stirling red card, giving conspiracy theorists less ammo than they might have had.
    Peterhead 28pts, Montrose 28pts, Stirling 26pts, Elgin 23pts, Stenny 22pts.
    Paddy's 4/9 about Peterhead is a standout, with some bookies calling 2/7. Stenny have a game in hand are 6/1 2nd-favs with Hill's, Montrose are 15/2 with Paddy and Stirling have walked to 8/1 with Victor.
    At the bottom, with the spoils shared in the showdown between the two Wooden Spoon contenders, Victor goes 8/13 Cowdenbeath retaining their title. Edinburgh City are 11/8. Clyde are 20/1, which seems generous for a side that's won two league games by the 2nd Saturday of December. The Bully Wee have 12pts, Embra 8pts and the Blue Brazil 7pts.

    Scottish Cup.
    Only a couple of online bunco booths go 11/10 Celtic. Evens is the best you'll get in the high street or with the better-known online firms. The Rangers are a standout 7/1 with Bet365. The Sheep are 7/1 but you can get 15/2 with 10Bet. 20/1 Hibs & the Gunts, 30/1 Sainties, 33/1 'Well, 40/1 Partick, 50/1 Dundee, Killie, Accies, Arabs, 66/1 Ross. 100/1 bar.

    Challenge Cup.
    2/1 TNS, 9/4 Caley, 11/4 Crusaders, 11/2 Dumbarton, who've been nibbled in from 6/1.

    Europa League.
    Nobody gone up yet with prices about tonight's reluctant arrivals. Celtic were chalked-up at 66/1 and 80/1 by the firms who priced-up last night's Champions League discards. Atletico were put in at prices between 7/2 and 5/1. Sporting went in at 28/1 and CSKA at 33/1.
    Napoli, Dortmund, Leipzig & Spartak joined the Europa League field tonight.

    Managers.
    Victor was holding 1/14 McInnes for Ibrox until 3 hours ago, but he's taken his book down. The two firms still up go 1/25.
    I still don't see it. He will need lots of assurances and should want firm evidence of finances... unless he's totally bonkers. King is about a 50/50 chance to be barred from holding directorships on what he's revealed so far, never mind what the imminent hearing uncovers, so I'm far from convinced McInnes will take the gig.
    Scotland: 8/13 Michael O'Neil, 2/1 Eck, 6/1 Lambert, 16/1 bar 3.

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