Clinton v Obama Update

[Burbank Lilywhite]

I have to say this is the best political race I have witnessed since Mario Cumo, Ed Koch, Bella Abzug and then Mayor Ed Beame all ran for Mayor of New York in 1977. And if I could offer Senator Clinton some advice, you're not Bella, never have been Bella don't try and be Bella.



With love in my heart, I liked that broad.


Last night was another series of victories for Senator Obama, which while they give him a slight delegate lead did something more important for him. He is starting to open up a wide gap in the popular vote, which will be hard for the party to ignore come convention time if the remaining primaries votes remain the same with Senator Obama winning with about a 60% vote.

Wisconson was a state that Senator Clinton should have won, and won easily. It fits her demographic perfectly. Predominately white, working, and union. However exit polling data reported on MSNBC and NBC showed Senator Obama clearly winning the white male vote by double digit margin. And he closed the gap to a mere 5% points in educated, white working women which has been the core of Senator Clinton's support. I believe there was a margin of error of 3% so it could even been down to 2% if you looked at a best case scenario. This does not bode well going into Ohio on 4 March as these two states are very similiar in demographic make up. She has all but conceded the African-American vote it appears so if he is making not only inroads but creating a real swing in votes among her consituancy it could all be over for her.

There was another interesting event last night between the two which I believe scuppered any hope of a combined ticket in November. (I have always felt this was a pipe dream held by party ideologists who don't live in the real world as it could only hurt Senator Obama today and tomorrow.) In the past the winning canidate would wait until the losing canidate had finished making their speech before stepping to the podium to make their speech. However last night, six minutes into her speech Senator Obama took to the podium after receiving word he had won Wisconson and began speaking. This meant the networks stopped broadcasting Senator Clinton's speech and began broadcasting Senator Obama's speech. She was effectively booted off the networks and reduced to some sound bites once his speech had been dissected by all the talking heads on all the networks.

This was a move of gamesmanship on his part that blew me away. Among Wisconson voters she was viewed as the more negative and unfairly attacked her opponent by a significant margin (I believe it was a 65-35% split). Negative campaigning did not work in Wisconson and has hurt her campaign. Her claims of being the "canidate who is ready to be commander in chief" did not resonate with Wisconson voters as he was viewed to be the more favourable 'commander in chief' garnering I believe a 51% of that vote. His speeches are including more policy statements, the meat and potatos of what his programs would entail and are looking more and more like those of an individual running against John McCain rather than fighting for his parties nomination.

Where does Senator Clinton go from here, she needs to carry both Texas and Ohio by at least a 70% of the popular vote to create the momentum she needs going forward. However she hasn't carried more than 60% of the vote in any primary or caucus thus far. She is losing among those who were considered 'untouchable' among her core support. Her negative campaigning hasn't worked. Her husband is doing more harm than good. His constant references to "their presidency" or "his presidency" are reminding people of events that her camp would like to forget such as Whitewater, Nafta, Monica Lewinsky, inaction in the Sudan, Rwanda and now the Balkans as Kosovo pops up on the radar again. As these are easy targets for Senator Obama and McCain.

Her only hope to slow him down is he makes a real big, bad mistake. He needs to be a 21st century Thomas Dewey, which I don't see happening. They have two debates coming up and he is clearly the better debater. Quicker on his feet, a more pleasing tone and pattern to the ear.

Which leads me to what I have always believed was Senator Clinton's biggest hurdle. She is unlikable by the public. She may be a 'heroic' figure to some but she doesn't not inspire a feeling (and I believe even among her core support) of someone you'd help on the side of the road with a flat tire on a January night in Cowdenbeath. She does not appear to be genuine. Instead she comes across as someone who would say anything to get elected (which all politicans do, some better than others). But worse she comes off as arrogant, and you walk away with a feeling that you are somehow inferior to her, and she knows best what you need and want. Our eldest daughter said last night, when she talks I feel like I'm 6 and being scolded, I don't like her. Interesting perspective for a 16 year old girl who is suppose to be drawn to the historic implications of her campaign.

Compare this to Senators Obama and McCain. They come across as genuine and not only mean what they say but believe it. Senator Obama clearly comes across as a highly educated and intelligent man. And yet someone you would see at the local diner getting a egg sandwhich chatting about baseball. Senator McCain you could see doing his own yardwork. This resonates with the American public, something she has never really done. This was made worse by the utter hubris, and arrogance of her campaign early on as if this was a forgone conclusion.

[Smurf]

I watched a lot of US News networks last night and it left me in no doubt that Obama has the Democrat nomination in the bag.

[Bartok]

Great post BL.

I think you nailed Clinton's greatest weakness towards the end there. The problem is not that she is a woman, but that she is not a 'woman of the people'.

On the other hand, is the USA ready to elect a non-white president? If it isn't now, it is tempting to suggest it never will be.

I still think it will be McCain though.

[Burbank Lilywhite]

Originally Posted by Smurf

I watched a lot of US News networks last night and it left me in no doubt that Obama has the Democrat nomination in the bag.

He does and he doesn't. Even if he wins every primary remaining by an 80-20 split he will not gather the required amount of delegates to walk into the convention to be nominated outright. That includes the superdelegates in the total also.

What he does have is the beginning of a clear mandate of the popular vote which the party will find hard to ignore, and I believe it is that vote that Senator Clinton is concentrating on now. Because the Democrats award delegates proportionally she can afford to lose primaries and still stay in the race as long as they are small losses. I think she has conceded to an extent she can't make up the delegates but if she goes into the convention only trailing by 5% of the popular vote and with a couple of primary wins she has negoiating leverage at the convention.

However if Senator Obama begins to blow her out (greater than a 60-40 spit) in the popular vote she is done. I don't see that happening unless he wins in Texas and Ohio by at least a healthy double digit margin of at least 15 to 20% points. Which I could see him getting pretty close in Ohio (maybe a 14 to 18 point margin) but I'm not certain in Texas.

[Burbank Lilywhite]

Originally Posted by Dixie Chicken

On the other hand, is the USA ready to elect a non-white president? If it isn't now, it is tempting to suggest it never will be.

I've really thought about this one, he doesn't come across as a canidate of colour. I can't explain the feeling but I don't see a man of African American heritage when he speaks. Nor do I get the sense of a man of privelege when I see John McCain.

Originally Posted by Dixie Chicken

I still think it will be McCain though.

I think this all hangs on who his running mate is. If he holds true to his principles and picks a canidate in his mold and style yes I could see him winning the election. American's like a canidate their party hates. Harry Truman is the best example I can provide. The Democratic party hated the man, but that only made the public love him more. I see a lot of Truman in Senator McCain. However if Huckabee influences the choice and they make a stupid concenssion and appeal to conservatives Senator Obama will win. John McCain appeals to centrists and independents of all parties, he needs to maintain that appeal and stay the course if he wants to be President.

And there in lies the crux of his problem I feel. John McCain wants to be President to help the country, to serve his country. I fear in order to achieve that he would be willing to compromise with the consertatives in his party. I think the best thing that could help him is for Nancy Regan to endorse him. The Regan name still carries a lot of weight and would give him an upper hand when dealing with Huckabee.

[wee 162]

It's not about the delegates any more (impossible for either Obama or Clinton to get close to the magic number any time soon) it's all about momentum and Obama has it. With momentum comes wads of cash, voters who want to back the winner, and the desire of the party faithful to get behind someone so they become the presumptive favourite. The nomination becomes a coronation in the next few weeks afaic.

And imo, Obama will win the nomination and then win the Presidency with a bit to spare. Vigour, energy, vision, will be his campaign themes against McCain and that will play well in the presidential beauty pageant. Unless one of the millions of armed racists present in the US who would be happy to see him dead succeed, he is going to be president imo.

[Burbank Lilywhite]

This morning CNN is reporting the Teamsters are going to publically endorse Senator Obama which is another big coup for him. He know has managed to get the endorsements of all the big labour unions and with it comes the ground troops to organise, and fundraise.

Senator Clinton is hemorraging money, however she was already on the attack in New York this morning. I don't think this is going to help her. Its not her policies, or ideas, that are hurting her. It's her.

Clinton Ridicules Obama in Comeback Bid

[Colr]

Originally Posted by Smurf

I watched a lot of US News networks last night and it left me in no doubt that Obama has the Democrat nomination in the bag.

May come down to the super-delegates. What's their beef, Burbank?

[Dub]

Originally Posted by Burbank Lilywhite

Our eldest daughter said last night, when she talks I feel like I'm 6 and being scolded, I don't like her. Interesting perspective for a 16 year old girl who is suppose to be drawn to the historic implications of her campaign.

To an extent she reminded me of Maggie whenever I watched her on TV. I think your daughter is more sussed on this thatn you suspect. Mrs Clinton tries to come over all mumsy imo but ends up sounding like a manipulative beeatch.

Just an opinion so feel free to shoot it down if you disagree

[Colr]

Originally Posted by Dixie Chicken

I still think it will be McCain though.

Vice-pres will be important then in case he does last the term - remember Gerald Ford?

[Burbank Lilywhite]

Originally Posted by Colr

May come down to the super-delegates. What's their beef, Burbank?

Super delegates are not obligated to vote for the canidate who won them. They can vote for whomever they choose regardless of whom the publice elected them to vote for at convention. As a result before the primaries began Senator Clinton began to woo many of the super delegates who are party power brokers (governors, senators, etc) get their support for her canidancy. However at that time she had what was considered an unasailable double digit lead. Things have changed since then, and while public opinion may scream Obama, Obama, Obama. Only the very sure would want to cross the former President and Senator Clinton who would still carry a lot of weight in the party by switching sides.

[Burbank Lilywhite]

Originally Posted by Dub

To an extent she reminded me of Maggie whenever I watched her on TV. I think your daughter is more sussed on this thatn you suspect. Mrs Clinton tries to come over all mumsy imo but ends up sounding like a manipulative beeatch.

Just an opinion so feel free to shoot it down if you disagree:dub40:

I whole heartily agree with this viewpoint. Which I found very amazing considering all the rhetoric being directed at young women on the importance of supporting Senator Clinton.

[Smurf]

Originally Posted by wee 162

Unless one of the millions of armed racists present in the US who would be happy to see him dead succeed, he is going to be president imo.

This is a fear of mine. Surely a candidate has top security by this stage?

[wee 162]

Originally Posted by Smurf

This is a fear of mine. Surely a candidate has top security by this stage?

They do. But never before will any US Presidential candidate have so many motivated potential assasins. If by the time this is all over there hasn't been at least one organised serious attempt (ie not some guy with a handgun getting topped by the Secret Service half a mile from Obama) I would be very surprised.

[Smurf]

Originally Posted by wee 162

They do. But never before will any US Presidential candidate have so many motivated potential assasins. If by the time this is all over there hasn't been at least one organised serious attempt (ie not some guy with a handgun getting topped by the Secret Service half a mile from Obama) I would be very surprised.

I've thought for a wee while that it all has an air of inevitability about it...

Maybe i've watched too much 24..

[Burbank Lilywhite]

Originally Posted by Smurf

I've thought for a wee while that it all has an air of inevitability about it...

Maybe i've watched too much 24..

You have.

[wee 162]

Originally Posted by Burbank Lilywhite

You have.

I don't watch 24, and haven't seen any mention of this scenario in the media, but I have to say the thought has crossed my mind as well. I don't think it's inevitable, but it is a possibility afaic.

I don't for a second think it would be succesful btw.