Like a flutter on the nags?

[Haruki]

Derren Brown is just about to show us how it's done on Ch4.

I, for one, am suing Ch4 if I'm not a millionaire by close of play tomorrow.

[Haruki]

Derren Brown's a c#nt. My hopes were up. I thought he could look into horse's eyes or something.

I knew how that's how those tipsters worked. It's hardly joined up thinking. Ch4, can I get a job please?

What a p'sh programme.

[Zitelli`s Heid!]

UTTER UTTER PISH!
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He is a smug arsehole of the highest order.

The Burd puts 4k on a horse and never looks at the ticket? Aye, right.

What about the "Envelope" bit at the start? Skipped the answer to that, I notice.

WHAT A WASTE OF AN HOUR OF MY LIFE. ****!

[Johnpoland]

There's no such thing as a 'system'. The nearest thing is the 'zulu principle', which most really successful professional punters demonstrate. Essentially, the key is to become an expert on a selected field of sport, to the point where you know as much as or (ideally) more than the bookie. Then you might have an edge. Of course, this is likely to be a lot of work, but it's about the only thing that really works. The reason bookies are making so much money is that almost noone has the discipline to put in that work.

I guess if we really wanted to we could pool all the 'expertise' on Hibs on this board to test the theory, but someone would have to filter it.

[madkink]

Originally Posted by Johnpoland
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There's no such thing as a 'system'. The nearest thing is the 'zulu principle', which most really successful professional punters demonstrate. Essentially, the key is to become an expert on a selected field of sport, to the point where you know as much as or (ideally) more than the bookie. Then you might have an edge. Of course, this is likely to be a lot of work, but it's about the only thing that really works. The reason bookies are making so much money is that almost noone has the discipline to put in that work.

I guess if we really wanted to we could pool all the 'expertise' on Hibs on this board to test the theory, but someone would have to filter it.

would take and age to filter all the information, but would be good, but football is difficult to bet on as there are so many more factors than say hounds or horses

[Haruki]

Explain to me why this one doesn't work then;

Always bet on an odds against favourite. If you lose then double your stake on the next odds against favourite. Eventully one will win. Usually 1 in 8 races. It's mathematically impossible to lose.

Why am I not rich?

Cowardice?

[fifer]

Originally Posted by camthebam
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Explain to me why this one doesn't work then;

Always bet on an odds against favourite. If you lose then double your stake on the next odds against favourite. Eventully one will win. Usually 1 in 8 races. It's mathematically impossible to lose.

Why am I not rich?

Cowardice?

The reason you are not rich is because this system doesn't work. Its a variation of the Martingale system. Mathematically it is indeed possible to lose, but in practice you will run out of money quickly once you hit a bad streak. It you had unlimited funds then you would hit the bookies bet limits as well.


The only way for a normal punter to profit from betting is to arbitrage bet.

[Dub]

Originally Posted by camthebam
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Explain to me why this one doesn't work then;

Always bet on an odds against favourite. If you lose then double your stake on the next odds against favourite. Eventully one will win. Usually 1 in 8 races. It's mathematically impossible to lose.

Why am I not rich?

Cowardice?

First race £5
second £10
third £20
Fourth £40
fifth £80
sixth £160
seventh £320
eighth £640

No winners = £1275 down the drain

Stick to football punditry Mr T Bam yer good at that
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[Johnpoland]

I manage a betting shop for a company which has over 2200 branches - the level of specialist knowledge you can see declines as the profile of a team/league declines e.g. they never seem aware of suspensions etc when they compile a list of first goalscorers in a Hibs game. M A-C was still being quoted as a possible first scorer for the cup tie v Rangers after his transfer to Dundee. The lower league you go, the more chance you have of cashing in on something you know that the odds compilers in Leeds don't. The biggest difficulty would lie in being prepared to only bet when you genuinely see an edge, not just for the sake of an interest.

[Tkraz]

Do that system on a a roulette table.

That works.

Expensive but you will always win the very first value you staked if you play till you win.

[Haruki]

Originally Posted by Dub
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First race £5
second £10
third £20
Fourth £40
fifth £80
sixth £160
seventh £320
eighth £640

No winners = £1275 down the drain

Stick to football punditry Mr T Bam yer good at that
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But, Iain, my man;

In my experience a minimum of 1/6 favs win. Swap your original £5 bet for 5p. Impossible to lose surely? Build, build and build?

I'm not the brightest but I can do math. Surely I'm right?

[ginty]

Originally Posted by camthebam
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But, Iain, my man;

In my experience a minimum of 1/6 favs win. Swap your original £5 bet for 5p. Impossible to lose surely? Build, build and build?

I'm not the brightest but I can do math. Surely I'm right?

Can you find a bookie willing to take a 5p bet without being laughed out the shop though.
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[TariqE]

Originally Posted by camthebam
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But, Iain, my man;

In my experience a minimum of 1/6 favs win. Swap your original £5 bet for 5p. Impossible to lose surely? Build, build and build?

I'm not the brightest but I can do math. Surely I'm right?

Try it out on a roulette or blackjack game in the Arcade. Sure you win your stake every time it comes in for you, but if you hit a run of losers you're gonna need loads of cash to win the next one. The chances are you'll run out of money or hit the bet limit before long and then you're talking huge money down the swanney.

Even if you consider red/black on roulette to be a 50/50 chance (which it isn't) betting £2 on the first red coming in, by the time eight blacks have hit in a row (seen it loads of times), you looking at a bet of £2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=£512 just to win your stakes back with a £2 profit. So you would need a starting bankroll of over a grand if you were to find yourself in this position.

Add to that the "even chances" bet limit might be £500 so you couldn't put enough money on making you a loser. Also remember that even after eight blacks in a row and you're putting £512 on red you have a (roughly) 50/50 chance of losing and having to fork out £1024 on the next bet.

Martin Gale or whoever this system is named after was definitely a loser.