US Primaries

[wee 162]

First one was last night in Iowa. Barak Obama won pretty well against Hilary Clinton & John Edwards (Clinton was third). If Obama wins in New Hampshire next week, he has momentum and could well start sweeping the board to get the Democrats nomination without even having to break sweat (and more importantly spending too much of the money already raised)...

However that's not what the interesting one was for me. Huckabee won the Republican caucus. Huckabee is a fundamentalist christian, and something occurred to me last night. People can vote in primaries by changing who they are registered for in the primaries (when you register to vote you put down Democrat, Republican, or Independent). If I was wanting to ensure a Democrat president, I would be damn sure to enter my vote in the Republican Primary and get someone as completely unelectable as Huckabee as the Republican Party candidate.

Am I just cynical as feck, or would others do the same?

For the record, I hope Huckabee wins the Republican nomination. Republicans have allowed the Christian right to set their agenda because they are organised and get their vote out, but it's about time they actually put up someone to fight on their issues.

[egb_hibs]

hrrmph. my thread no good enough for ye
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Originally Posted by wee 162
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First one was last night in Iowa. Barak Obama won pretty well against Hilary Clinton & John Edwards (Clinton was third). If Obama wins in New Hampshire next week, he has momentum and could well start sweeping the board to get the Democrats nomination without even having to break sweat (and more importantly spending too much of the money already raised)...

However that's not what the interesting one was for me. Huckabee won the Republican caucus. Huckabee is a fundamentalist christian, and something occurred to me last night. People can vote in primaries by changing who they are registered for in the primaries (when you register to vote you put down Democrat, Republican, or Independent). If I was wanting to ensure a Democrat president, I would be damn sure to enter my vote in the Republican Primary and get someone as completely unelectable as Huckabee as the Republican Party candidate.

Am I just cynical as feck, or would others do the same?

i'm sure that happens Al

For the record, I hope Huckabee wins the Republican nomination. Republicans have allowed the Christian right to set their agenda because they are organised and get their vote out, but it's about time they actually put up someone to fight on their issues.

woah - is that you acknowledging that Dubya is not a prez of the christian right? if so, hats off - he is many things, but that he ain't; throws them some soothing rhetoric, but that's that.

I would like to see Obama represent the Democrats and McCain or Giuliani the Republicans, but I say this without any great depth of understanding about the positions of the various candidates. Either way, I hope for a decent candidate from either side so either result is ok for the world.

[Smurf]

I expect Michael Bloomberg will enter the race..
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[TonySoprano]

Obama certainly seems to be resonating with the young much more than any of the other Democrats. Iowa has a very small Black population relatively, so can't particularly be attributed to ethnicity I would say. Clinton is the one who will be upset, not by losing that state to Barack, cause she has bigger fish in the pan, but finishing third to Edwards and the way her campaigning has gone the last few weeks will not help her case. I think the momentum is now most definitely with Barack.

[Smurf]

I'd be gobsmacked if Clinton is still not the clear favourite for the Democrat nomination though..

[wee 162]

Originally Posted by egb_hibs
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hrrmph. my thread no good enough for ye
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Started before yours was up
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Originally Posted by egb_hibs
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i'm sure that happens Al

Originally Posted by egb_hibs
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woah - is that you acknowledging that Dubya is not a prez of the christian right? if so, hats off - he is many things, but that he ain't; throws them some soothing rhetoric, but that's that.

No, he is. But he isn't as indoctrinated in it and as clear on his positions as someone like Huckabee. He's a politician first.

And his record on only supporting the appointments of federal judges who are against abortion is not rhetoric.

Originally Posted by egb_hibs
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I would like to see Obama represent the Democrats and McCain or Giuliani the Republicans, but I say this without any great depth of understanding about the positions of the various candidates. Either way, I hope for a decent candidate from either side so either result is ok for the world.

Giuliani is the only Republican I could see having a chance to win, but to get the nomination he has had to go to the right to get support which hurts him in the campaigning for the actual Presidency. It doesn't look the greatest of strategies to start with since he's ignoring New Hampshire as well. So he is barely going to be mentioned in the first couple of primaries which will put a dent in his fundraising and he'll have to fight to get back into it. Would have been better putting in a bit of effort to attain respectable results.

McCain looks too old, and is too associated with Bushs wars. Mitt Romney is too much of a parody of a US politician to be taken seriously. Huckabee is a fecking mentalist who is completely unelectable. The field for the Republicans looks to be one of the desperate, the deranged, and the unelectable. Which suggests they all think they are going to lose. Probably correctly. Guiliani could make it interesting.

[oo2beahibby]

Isn't Iowa a useful political barometer in the same way as Sunderland North (I think) is for UK General Elections?

[TonySoprano]

Originally Posted by Smurf
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I'd be gobsmacked if Clinton is still not the clear favourite for the Democrat nomination though..

Maybe. She's hot favourite for California and New York, which are hugely important, but if she continues to stutter as she has and Obama can bring in these 'new' voters as he has apparently done in Iowa, he might get the head of steam up that could see him home.

[Smurf]

Originally Posted by oo2beahibby
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Isn't Iowa a useful political barometer in the same way as Sunderland North (I think) is for UK General Elections?

Is it not that Sunderland North is the first result to be declared on election night?

[wee 162]

Originally Posted by oo2beahibby
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Isn't Iowa a useful political barometer in the same way as Sunderland North (I think) is for UK General Elections?

Depends. The Republican one probably is about the same relevance, the Democratic one was unusually hard fought. Usually there are at least one or two front runners in each party who doesn't bother too much with Iowa since the caucuses involve a lot of "retail politics" which is shorthand for lots of handshaking and talking to people on an individual level. It's not important in terms of delegates to the convention. You can build a lot of momentum from it, and iirc Iowa is one of the least ethnically diverse states in the US so Obama winning means he has removed a lot of doubts about his electability. That point is that he is capable of winning in states where he is not relying on an ethnic minority vote.

[superbam]

I really hope Huckabee wins the Republican nomination, cos theres no danger America would elect him. Im very surprised that how weak the Republican candidates are in general.

[oo2beahibby]

Originally Posted by Smurf
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Is it not that Sunderland North is the first result to be declared on election night?

Aye. For the ten minutes following the result, swingometers and political analysts go their dinger making all kinds of predictions, extrapolations and the like.

[AndyM]

Originally Posted by superbam
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I really hope Huckabee wins the Republican nomination, cos theres no danger America would elect him. Im very surprised that how weak the Republican candidates are in general.

I hope you are correct.

America need a change of direction and what it does not need in my opinion is another warmongering, homophobic, God-bothering fundamentalist banjo-playing hillbilly doing the bidding of big oil running on the Republican ticket. Personally I'd be happy with any of the Democratic candidates after 8 years of village idiot Presidency.

[Doddie]

Originally Posted by AndyM
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I hope you are correct.

America need a change of direction and what it does not need in my opinion is another warmongering, homophobic, God-bothering fundamentalist banjo-playing hillbilly doing the bidding of big oil running on the Republican ticket. Personally I'd be happy with any of the Democratic candidates after 8 years of village idiot Presidency.

You don't have a high opinion of GWB, then?
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I would tend to agree with egb, myself - the Bushes have used the Christian fundamentalist Right to get into the White House, but I don't get the impression that they have any real convictions other than using connections to get political power, and political power to advance the family fortunes. They make the right noises to keep people like Pat Robertson onside, but I don't think it goes any farther than that.

Clinton was vulnerable to these characters on the grounds of his personal life but he was an infinitely better President than either of the Bushes, IMO. I'd question whether sexual morality should ever be considered the most important aspect of any political leader's character, anyway - after all, if you elect a non-smoking, vegetarian celibate who supports family values and full employment, what you get is Adolf Hitler. Policies are more important.

Democrat for me, too, though - Clinton or Obama would suit fine. Not that I really understand too much about it, mind.

[wee 162]

Originally Posted by Doddie
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You don't have a high opinion of GWB, then?
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I would tend to agree with egb, myself - the Bushes have used the Christian fundamentalist Right to get into the White House, but I don't get the impression that they have any real convictions other than using connections to get political power, and political power to advance the family fortunes. They make the right noises to keep people like Pat Robertson onside, but I don't think it goes any farther than that.

Clinton was vulnerable to these characters on the grounds of his personal life but he was an infinitely better President than either of the Bushes, IMO. I'd question whether sexual morality should ever be considered the most important aspect of any political leader's character, anyway - after all, if you elect a non-smoking, vegetarian celibate who supports family values and full employment, what you get is Adolf Hitler. Policies are more important.

Democrat for me, too, though - Clinton or Obama would suit fine. Not that I really understand too much about it, mind.

It does. Bush has made stacking the federal court system with people who are opposed to abortion one of his priorities.

[HaarlemShuffler]

Saw this on a BBC web item:

Republican Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa's caucuses, with Barack Obama victorious in the Democratic race.

Who'd have thought that the former Simply Red front man would so quickly find a new vocation in American politics, eh?


"Money's too tight to mention....."

[Burbank Lilywhite]

Just getting stuck in here after being up most of the up night watching all the analysis.

To be honest I don't think Senator Obama's win was that unexpected by the average American. I believe the media made a error regarding how they saw this contest and reported it, which may have influenced the early public opinion polls.

This mistake was confusing support of Bill Clinton for Senator Clinton. He is incredibly popular across a broad spectrum of Democrats. She is not, in fact last night's results I feel clearly showed her demographic support. Women aged 45 and older. It is the only group she carried. She came in third in polling data for women aged 18-45 with Senator Obama and Edwards finishing 1-2 in this category. Women were 'supposed' to propel her to the White House. It was pointed out that young women today were only 3-15 years of age during her husband's term as President. They have no memories or connection to her.

Her second mistake and she continued to make it during her speech to supporters is her statement of assumption of coronation and election as President. It puts people off, as if this is merely a formality until she is elected. To be honest she is not a good speaker for campaining. One pundit put it best, people come out of a Obama speech full of hope, energised and ready to work to a better tomorrow. People come out a Clinton speech saying, she's pretty smart. He resonates with people, she at this moment does not.

Compare this to Sentator Obama's speech to his supporters. I have often wondered could he on the campaign recreate the magic of the 2004 convention. He did and then upped the ante. His speech invoked FDR, MLK and the hope of both Kennedy's. The key line was "we are not a nation of red states, blue states but the United States". In my generation the last President who spoke like that, who could cut across demographics, ideologies was Ronald Regan in his first term.

If the results in New Hampshire continue in the same vein last night could have been the first glimpse of a Obama-Edwards ticket.

From the Republican's Iowa is hard to guage, however the fact that John McCain made it a close third given the lack of funds he had was the most interesting aspect of the night. He is the type of guy who would resonate with the independent voters of New Hampshire. A interesting aspect of McCain's effort is the support he is getting from Joe Liberman could this be a possible ticket combination.

[Burbank Lilywhite]

Some updated links about last night from US media sources. These are from Newsweek magazine

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These are from Reuters

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Also one last thing. It was interesting to note the "stage crowd" behind the canidates when speaking to their supporters last night. Senator Clinton's was one made of mostly older women and Washington insiders. Compared to Senator Obama's which was a true rainbow colition. Earlier in the thread wee_162 pointed out the compairision's made to JKF, RFK and MLK for Senator Obama. Last night he delivered, the speech was very MLK in terms of idioymn and timing, JKF and RFK in terms of looking to the future and why not, why can't America truly be the shining city on the hill we can collectively do it, it is in our nature as a country to live up to the expectation and yet was Regan like in that he spoke to rich, poor, educated, uneducated, blue collar, white collar. At the risk of placing to much emphasis on it, it was the embodiment of the American dream in its purest sense as American's see it. I believe this country turned a corner last night.