make love not war: do changing demographics make a united ireland inevitable?

[egb_hibs]

and if it happens will the nationalists and loyalists exchange places? ie the rebels becomes the establishment and vice versa
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(ooh and will some of the commie extremists on the republican side really follow through with their second war - to turn ireland into cuba on the atlantic?)

again, especially hoping for connor and co to comment...

[hoagy boy]

Egb mate, you been Debating Ireland oot yir skin the now,Somebody give yi a job lot Of troubles Litrerature
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[Northern Ireland Hibby]

Originally Posted by egb_hibs

and if it happens will the nationalists and loyalists exchange places? ie the rebels becomes the establishment and vice versa
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(ooh and will some of the commie extremists on the republican side really follow through with their second war - to turn ireland into cuba on the atlantic?)

again, especially hoping for connor and co to comment...

Bearing in mind I'm no expert follower of politics:

I reckon more than a few middle-class Catholics would vote against a united Ireland, since tens of thousands make a very good living in the Civil Service, armed forces/ police and the countless Quangos we have here.

Also, the rebels can never become establishment as their policies are to agitate and disrupt/disable organisations from within (ultimately, they hope, the Dublin government) in favour of a so-called socialist system.

I believe also a good number of economists believe that the southern economy could not cope with the money-pit that is the north. Newspapers in the south such as the Irish Times and Irish Independent (a great paper, BTW) would possible persuade readers in the south not to vote for a united Ireland also.

So I don't think it would come to this for many, many years: but the current pro-Union folk would certainly adopt (at best) the present policies of SF. There is plenty of evidence of this happening already.

[superbam]

Originally Posted by Northern Ireland Hibby

Irish Independent (a great paper, BTW)

Have to say i cant stand that paper. It reminds me in some ways of our very own Scotsman. Its right up that Michael MacDowell bastards arse.

[Northern Ireland Hibby]

Originally Posted by superbam

Have to say i cant stand that paper. It reminds me in some ways of our very own Scotsman. Its right up that Michael MacDowell bastards arse.

I know what you mean but I enjoy the writing and the fact that they've got the balls to say the things about SF that no northern newspaper even attempts.

[superbam]

Originally Posted by Northern Ireland Hibby

I know what you mean but I enjoy the writing and the fact that they've got the balls to say the things about SF that no northern newspaper even attempts.

Aye I can understand that, its not shy in that respect. I just think it can sometimes be a little over-indulgent of MacDowell and the PDs, i believe he is a nasty piece of work. Also wasnt impressed with its coverage of the recent riots in O'Connell street after the Orange march, it simplified events to suit that particular agenda.

[Northern Ireland Hibby]

Originally Posted by superbam

Aye I can understand that, its not shy in that respect. I just think it can sometimes be a little over-indulgent of MacDowell and the PDs, i believe he is a nasty piece of work. Also wasnt impressed with its coverage of the recent riots in O'Connell street after the Orange march, it simplified events to suit that particular agenda.

Understood. When I read it I tend to skip over the Dublin politics and look at it very much from a 'nordie' point of view.

[Burbank Lilywhite]

I can't see it happening (United Ireland) for the very reason's NIH pointed out. To many people are making way to much money keeping things the way they are. The Republic (or Free State depending upon who you speak to) can't afford the cost of absorbing Northern Ireland. The UK can't afford to keep plowing money into Northern Ireland at its current rate. So it will be interesting when one side finally admits what we all know to be true, the current situation of quangos and money pits has to stop before real progress of any kind can take place. Because of these quangos and situations they create it has placed the entire place in sort of a stalement where changing the status quo means ecomonic ruin for someone.

[pq123]

A look at the demograhics (below) would appear to show a sigmificant trend towards a catholic majority eventually. The first columns are the age range the last column is the percentage of catholics.

The catholics, in the past, were usually classed as nationalists but if significant numbers are employed ,either directly or indirectly by the British state then a final unification vote is probably not as simplistic as is sometimes suggested.

0*to*4 43
5*to*9 46
10*to*14 47
15*to*19 48
20*to*24 46
25*to*29 42
30*to*34 41
35*to*39 41
40*to*44 40
45*to*49 39
50*to*54 36
55*to*59 34
60*to*64 36
65*to*69 33
70*to*74 31
75*to*79 30
80*to*84 28
85*to*89 26
90*and*over 23
All 40

Statistical health warning: Past reproduction rates are used for illustrative purposes only and are not guaranteed to be maintained by by future pontifical edicts.




PQ123

[hoagy boy]

Originally Posted by pq123

A look at the demograhics (below) would appear to show a sigmificant trend towards a catholic majority eventually. The first columns are the age range the last column is the percentage of catholics.

The catholics, in the past, were usually classed as nationalists but if significant numbers are employed ,either directly or indirectly by the British state then a final unification vote is probably not as simplistic as is sometimes suggested.

0*to*4 43
5*to*9 46
10*to*14 47
15*to*19 48
20*to*24 46
25*to*29 42
30*to*34 41
35*to*39 41
40*to*44 40
45*to*49 39
50*to*54 36
55*to*59 34
60*to*64 36
65*to*69 33
70*to*74 31
75*to*79 30
80*to*84 28
85*to*89 26
90*and*over 23
All 40

Statistical health warning: Past reproduction rates are used for illustrative purposes only and are not guaranteed to be maintained by by future pontifical edicts.




PQ123

Listen Ive enough trouble,Working oot a 132 finish at the darts
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[pq123]

Originally Posted by hoagy boy

Listen Ive enough trouble,Working oot a 132 finish at the darts
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Apologies for the layout. It is visually dodgy but statistically accurate.

Re the 132 finish: treble twenty, treble twenty again, aw naw I bottled it and hit the double eleven! YAH BEAUTY BULLS EYE, game over!

PQ123

[hoagy boy]

Originally Posted by pq123

Apologies for the layout. It is visually dodgy but statistically accurate.

Re the 132 finish: treble twenty, treble twenty again, aw naw I bottled it and hit the double eleven! YAH BEAUTY BULLS EYE, game over!

PQ123

They'll be dancing in the streets tonight Sid

[Northern Ireland Hibby]

Originally Posted by Burbank Lilywhite

I can't see it happening (United Ireland) for the very reason's NIH pointed out. To many people are making way to much money keeping things the way they are. The Republic (or Free State depending upon who you speak to) can't afford the cost of absorbing Northern Ireland. The UK can't afford to keep plowing money into Northern Ireland at its current rate. So it will be interesting when one side finally admits what we all know to be true, the current situation of quangos and money pits has to stop before real progress of any kind can take place. Because of these quangos and situations they create it has placed the entire place in sort of a stalement where changing the status quo means ecomonic ruin for someone.

Yup - a big bugbear of mine at the moment in NI (I've posted about it before on here) is the constant begging for money from the UK government by every wee Women's Ex-Prisoner Aid Basket Weaving Collective in every Loyalist and Republican area.

Read the Andersonstown News, for example, and it's pages are filled with various crackpot pressure groups demanding cash. The Shinners support this because, hey, it's only Brit money and the Loyalists have started too because, hey, it's only a bed-wetting, pandering-to-SF UK government anyway.

I find it difficult to respect either cause until they show enough self-respect to seek self-reliance. For example, Loyalist communities have just been handed millions in re-development grants by the government (a political sop after last year's riots). Now I'm no Daily Mail reader but could I suggest they try getting a job? The re-development of areas will look after itself after that.

BTW: As identified by BL, the next problem is the 160+ Quangos we have in NI. Also, the Civil Service here is enormous (employing a large number of Catholics at that).

BTW 2: The real reason many car insurance companies won't insure in NI is because it is within parts of the Republican and Loyalist culture to swindle, cheat, spin and scam every penny possibe: both from their employer and from people like the car insurance companies. United Ireland? Wait until the Falls and Shankill mob get busy in the Dublin Claims courts to see what that does to Irish culture!!!

[Northern Ireland Hibby]

Originally Posted by pq123

A look at the demograhics (below) would appear to show a sigmificant trend towards a catholic majority eventually. The first columns are the age range the last column is the percentage of catholics.

The catholics, in the past, were usually classed as nationalists but if significant numbers are employed ,either directly or indirectly by the British state then a final unification vote is probably not as simplistic as is sometimes suggested.

0*to*4 43
5*to*9 46
10*to*14 47
15*to*19 48
20*to*24 46
25*to*29 42
30*to*34 41
35*to*39 41
40*to*44 40
45*to*49 39
50*to*54 36
55*to*59 34
60*to*64 36
65*to*69 33
70*to*74 31
75*to*79 30
80*to*84 28
85*to*89 26
90*and*over 23
All 40

Statistical health warning: Past reproduction rates are used for illustrative purposes only and are not guaranteed to be maintained by by future pontifical edicts.




PQ123

Do figures exist anywhere or have you seen stats for:

- Social class breakdown in NI by religion.

- Government (Civil Service) employment in NI by religion.


I don't know the exact figures, but an interesting aside is that education standards are much, much worse in Loyalist areas than in Republican areas. I can only guess that the Church (with its connection to sport and education) in Republican enclaves brings its influence to bear, which the Church in Loyalist areas does not hold as much authority.

[egb_hibs]

Originally Posted by Northern Ireland Hibby

I don't know the exact figures, but an interesting aside is that education standards are much, much worse in Loyalist areas than in Republican areas. I can only guess that the Church (with its connection to sport and education) in Republican enclaves brings its influence to bear, which the Church in Loyalist areas does not hold as much authority.

I don't know what this says, but I'm sure it says something; i remember watching a documentary that went inside one of the prisons. In the republican wings, the walls were adorned with political posters, and the shelves lined with books. In the loyalist wings, the walls were adorned with porn and there wasnt a book to be seen

[Northern Ireland Hibby]

Originally Posted by egb_hibs

I don't know what this says, but I'm sure it says something; i remember watching a documentary that went inside one of the prisons. In the republican wings, the walls were adorned with political posters, and the shelves lined with books. In the loyalist wings, the walls were adorned with porn and there wasnt a book to be seen

Within the Republican movement there is an emphasis on discipline and education (used to be, anyway).

You'll more ofen than not find Loyalists shooting each other.

[Brizo]

[quote=Northern Ireland Hibby]Yup - As identified by BL, the next problem is the 160+ Quangos we have in NI. Also, the Civil Service here is enormous (employing a large number of Catholics at that).

My work used to take me over to Belfast where had to have meetings with civil servants from a couple of govt depts , dont know if it was coincidence but vast majority I met were Catholic and after work in a social context some of them seemed to see nothing ironic in working for the Crown while having very strong anti Brit view ?

Id imagine that when it comes to mortgage vs Republican principles most will want to stick with HM paypacket ?

Seems to me as an outsider that any Catholic demographic majority might well be cancelled out by Catholic middleclassation and of course those who benefit from the benefit culture

[Cantona]

Originally Posted by egb_hibs

I don't know what this says, but I'm sure it says something; i remember watching a documentary that went inside one of the prisons. In the republican wings, the walls were adorned with political posters, and the shelves lined with books. In the loyalist wings, the walls were adorned with porn and there was a book to be seen

In that documentary[The Maze] it said that the Republicans were more inclined to study for degrees while all the loyalists wanted to do was lift weights.

[Northern Ireland Hibby]

[quote=Brizo]

Originally Posted by Northern Ireland Hibby

Yup - As identified by BL, the next problem is the 160+ Quangos we have in NI. Also, the Civil Service here is enormous (employing a large number of Catholics at that).

My work used to take me over to Belfast where had to have meetings with civil servants from a couple of govt depts , dont know if it was coincidence but vast majority I met were Catholic and after work in a social context some of them seemed to see nothing ironic in working for the Crown while having very strong anti Brit view ?

Id imagine that when it comes to mortgage vs Republican principles most will want to stick with HM paypacket ?

Seems to me as an outsider that any Catholic demographic majority might well be cancelled out by Catholic middleclassation and of course those who benefit from the benefit culture

I'd say you're spot on, on all points.

Another factor is that a considerable number of Civil Servants in NI are, at any given moment, at home or in the pub on (ahem..) 'stress' leave in six month stretches.

This seems to be an acceptable cultural thing in many quarters here, particularly in republican areas (for reasons explained earlier). This is not a sectarian comment, as the existance of the Protestant work ethic in NI is well documented and means that, in middle class Protestant quarters, such activity may well be seem as shameful.

(It also annoys the sh1te out of me, BTW, as do Republicans working for the BBC, Civil Service etc: talk about standing up for your beliefs. Not. I would have more respect for them if - as stated before - they sought self-reliance at all levels)

I'm not sure how often the Dublin Government is sued or how many employees are on the skive, but it's just another massive cost they would have to bear if NI was included in their juristiction.

[Northern Ireland Hibby]

Originally Posted by Cantona

In that documentary[The Maze] it said that the Republicans were more inclined to study for degrees while all the loyalists wanted to do was lift weights.

The Loyalist paramilitary movement became a purely criminal movement a long time ago and the Republican paramilitary movement has now followed.